Rangers top off-season priority should be Kovalchuk
by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in Rangers Analysis
37 comments
Earlier last week you all read about how the Rangers might go after St. Louis from Tampa Bay. I disagreed with that idea, because I felt that for what it would take to get him the Rangers should be able to do better. Over the past week I've had some conversations with Falconer, manager of the Atlanta Thrashers blog Bird Watchers Anonymous. You can probably see where this is going. If you guessed Ilya Kovalchuk, you are correct.
If Kovalchuk is made available, the Rangers should pay up and get him. The 26 year old winger scored 43 goals this year and had 91 points on a pretty bad Atlanta team. Kovalchuk has always been a pure-bred sniper. In his 7 years of NHL service he has scored 297 goals. From his rookie year until this year his goal count has been 29, 38, 41, 52, 42, 52, and 43. Those are some hefty numbers, and because of that he will demand a king's ransom, and the Rangers should give it to him.
Now let's quickly discuss his availability. Falconer says that: "Based on my interview with GM Don Waddell, Kovalchuk will either be signed or traded by the end of the summer. I put the odds at 60/40 of him re-signing. But I can't imagine trade talks really heating up until right around the NHL Draft in late June.", which means that there is a fair chance that Kovalchuk might not be wearing Thrasher colors next year.
Onto the matter of what it would cost to get him. Falconer says: "I can tell you that Atlanta would require two players who could step in immediately and play. If he's going to move the face of the franchise they have to show the fans some instant return on a trade." This makes sense, and let's be honest: Kovalchuk is worth it.
Here is where I go out on another limb, although you all may take my head off for this one. In my opinion the Rangers should only have two untouchables: Staal and Grachev. Callahan, Anisimov, Sanguinetti, Girardi, Korpikoski, Zherdev and Sauer should all be available. In my opinion it would have to take a lot to get Dubinsky from the Rangers, everyone else should at least be in the conversation from the get-go.
Onto the subject of fitting him under the cap, the Rangers would have to make some room to fit his 6.4 million dollar salary under the cap. Redden or Rozsival you say? Well think again because Falconer says: "The biggest problem is the cap. The Thrashers ownership would have zero interest in adding a big contract like Redden or Rozsival; they would want young cheap players." So other contracts would obviously have to be dealt with before this happened.
How to make the money to fit Kovalchuk? If I were the GM I would bury Redden in the AHL (unless there was a taker in a trade in which I took no money in return, which would never happen), and wipe his salary off the cap. Then the Rangers should look and see if they can't move Chris Drury. I know he has a no trade clause but I would really like to see his 7.1 million dollars off the cap. I would also like to move Gomez but I am inclined to keep him on the roster so he can feed Kovalchuk.
Again most of this is speculation. Sources say that the Rangers "are aware" that Kovalchuk might be dangled. If this happens the Rangers need to get him. They need a scorer, and Kovalchuk is one of the best scorers in the league.
Just some off season speculation for you all to chew on. You're thoughts?
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Add Callahan to that list
I think that Callahan’s improvement over the last two seasons warrant us not shipping him to Atlanta. As good as Kovalchuk is, we’ve had bad luck with acquiring all star veterans, and while I think the rest of the organization is up for grabs, Staal, Grachev, Callahan, and Dubinsky are the future core of the team. Kovalchuk looks like he would be a great addition though
by AllHailTheKing30 on May 6, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well I would say this move would be different
Kovalchuk isnt 32 or 33 he is 26. It is compleatly different this go around.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
do you honestly think though....
that atlanta will make a bad decision here? i think they are smarter than that and will demand either callahan, dubinsky or korpikoski.
by #17ToTheRafters on May 6, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
very good early analysis of the situation.
i do like the honesty in saying we can give up “Callahan, Anisimov, Sanguinetti, Girardi, Korpikoski, Zherdev and Sauer”. its tough to hear as a ranger fan that feels so strongly about some of these talented youngsters, but i’m willing to accept the idea that bad contracts put us in tthis position to begin with. it would be diificult to see callahan or korpikoski leave but its something worth thinking about. all in all – Kovalchuck is the RIGHT solution for our goal scoring problems.
since you’re obviously more ‘in the know’ than myself, do you think there are any teams out there – in desperate need for a “reliable veteran defenseman” that might be willing to help with the cap hit (a la rangers/dallas transaction for avery.)? what would it take to get one of the two on their way (redden & roszival)?
by #17ToTheRafters on May 6, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see any possible way the Rangers can trade Redden unless they take alot of bad salary back.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on May 6, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about that team in montreal with 10 UFA's this summer?
and about 20 million in cap space?
by #17ToTheRafters on May 6, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah i can give you two teams that are int he need for a reliable veteran defenseman
Tampa Bay. They need defensive help badly.
But more importantly the Anehime Ducks. The only have 1 defenseman under contract for next year. You read that right, 1. And its pronger. They might take Redden they really might.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
id the ducks are in need
what’s the availability situation on bobby ryan (don’t laugh)?
by #17ToTheRafters on May 6, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forget him lol
We would need to pony up alot more than Wade Redden.
I doubt the DUcks are dangleing him anway. He it literally the next generation of power fowards. The kid has dirty hands, and great size. The Ducks arent giving him away for nothing.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm glad you didn't laugh :)
i was just really impressed by his style of play, especially against the sharks…nasty…
by #17ToTheRafters on May 6, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course i didnt laugh
You are a valued member here at the Banter! :-).
Anway I agree he is really good. He was the 2nd overall pick behind Crosby so that does say something.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At what cost?
I agree that St. Louis (33 and on his downside) would be a bad pick up at the cost Tampa would demand and that Kovalchuk would be exactly what this team needs, what kind of young talent would we have to give up?
As much as scoring was an issue I think overall speed is a concern too. In the Caps series it looked like they had to play back to prevent Ovel and Co. from running wild. They didn’t seem to have the team speed to be “pesty” enough on either side.
I’ll admit that I am just getting back into Hockey (fell off in the dump and chase days) but one philosophy remains true amongst all sports. You can’t win without a solid core built through drafts and scouting.
by GullySully77 on May 6, 2009 10:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't think it's a speed issue.
torts addressed the conditioning problems and i believe that after this year’s camp there will be no more ‘speed’ issues (or they might have to keep the speed issued in hartford), simply because you can’t be slow and play the kind of hockey torterella wants to play. also, note how much VISIBLY faster Nik Antropov has been skating under torts, just compare footage from his first game as a ranger and game 1 vs. the caps.
by #17ToTheRafters on May 6, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They lost to the Capitals because we dont have a go to guy
Kovalchuk would be that guy. He can score from his own blue line …
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OFF TOPIC - anyone want to comment on
how good the caps look against the pens? i think alot of credit is due to our blueline. Cindy’s team looks much less able to beat them in a 7 game series than us. (and i predicted malkin will step it up – which he hasn’t).
by #17ToTheRafters on May 6, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont think it’s a good idea to trade for Kovalchuk now. There’s no way they don’t ask for Staal in my opinion. He’s the kind of defenseman a team like the Thrashers can build their backline around. They already have Zach Bogosian and Tobias Ernstrom. If they added Staal, they would have arguably the best young defensive core in the NHL.
I’d rather wait for next summer when he’s UFA.
by Ryan McFadden on May 6, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well i feel like the implication is that he will eaither signed
or traded. And if he is traded he will probably get re-signed there. This might be the Rangers only chance to get him, and God do they ever need him. I say they go for it. But like i said in the post. If they ask for Staal or Grachev shut them down.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats the problem though, they’re not going to ask for Callahan/Dubinsky/Girardi/Anisimov/Sanguinetti in the deal. They’re going to want Staal and after that, the Rangers don’t have much of a counter offer.Kovalchuk has been counting down the days to free agency, I doubt he’ll want to skip out on that opportunity. If he’s not traded over the summer, he will be at the deadline.
by Ryan McFadden on May 6, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would counter with
Callahan and Girardi/Zherdev. Those are cheap young players that can make an impact. I just feel as though if the Rangers dont make this move now then by next free agency our cap will be back up at the roof. And we wont have room for him.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Id do that
I like Girardi cuz he’s a big reason why the Rangers D is so good, but if they have to give him up for Kovalchuk Id be fine with it.
Giving hup Callahan would be tought to swallow, but sometimes I guess you have to put sentimental value aside and look at the big picture, I really doubt that Callahan has the potential to be as good as Kovalchuk. Callahan I just can’t see putting up 40-50 goals and 90+ points every year like Kovalchuck.
I don’t think that just 2 guys would do it tho, Id say the Rangers would have to at least throw in a pick or 2, be it a 1st rounder or 2nd rounder (not a bad idea considering the Rangers luck with first round picks (Staal aside, and Del Zotto?? and Sanguinetti get a pass for now).
Bottom Line, Kovalchuk is MUCH better than Jagr was with the Rangers. THis guy is only 26 and could be playing for another 10 years…..the Rangers HAVE to try to get this guy, if a deal has to include Callahan and/or a guy like Korpikowski…sometimes you just have to do it.
by FreeBradshaw on May 6, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kovy
would be great for the Rangers. MUCH better than St. Louis (scores more than Drury but has similar work ethic, leadership skills and small-ish size). Kovy is the sniper that Rangers need and he would probably like living in NYC. And if he AND the Rangers do well, he might be more inclined to re-sign with the Rangers at a more reasonable price than if there were to be an all-out UFA bidding war (that’s when you get horribly over-valued contracts like Redden, Drury, Gomez, just to name a few :-).
I like Kovy for the Rangers even more than Gaborik.
by Pookie on May 6, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No way to Gaborik
He is an injury waiting to happen.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha - did you write the scouting report? from http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/Marian_Gaborik
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by Pookie on May 6, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes yes i did
no i didnt lol
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grachev
If you need players with immediate impact… grachev isnt one of them. He played in the ohl last season. Maybe he will be amazing. who knows, but he isnt a NHL proven player yet.
i wouldnt mind dealing callahan, anisemov, and a 1st rd pick for him.
i wouldnt mind that last sentence if we had a ton of cap room to make a new defensive lineup with mike komiserek added from free agency.
Sather has to go after handicapping himself by signing redden and rozsival to massive deals.
at least gomez and drury have some worth, but obviously over paid.
bottomline , i agree that the rangers GREATEST need is a pure scorer. add kovalchuk and youll see a huge difference on the PP.
by ImaMoose on May 6, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Grachev is going to be a hero
i got a great feeling about him …
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we can trade stall
remeber guys we signed gil roy from boston college to a 3 year deal and hes a young talent and dont forget naslund retired so thats 4 million off the cap we will have room for kovaulchuck and others as well
by wazzy23 on May 6, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No way Staal is untouchable
The Rangers need him . He will be one of the premire Defenseman in the league in the coming years, trust me.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 6, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
staal is already a first pairing defenseman.
he will not be traded.
by #17ToTheRafters on May 6, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
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by Joe Fortunato on May 7, 2009 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too many moving parts
As meager as the Rangers offense was last year, Naslund was the leading scorer. His offensive production has to be replaced. You would probably have to give up either Callahan or Dubinsky which means their offensive production. In order to clear cap space, one of the albatross contracts has to be moved. Drury is the one most likely since he is the best player and has the fewest years remaining. His offense would have to be replaced.
Whatever Kovalchuck’s contract turns out to be, it would probably move the Rangers right back against the cap. This means that the other two offensive spots would have to be filled by replacement level players. Since the Rangers don’t have a star offensive player waiting to step in (Anisimov is a ?) the value added from Kovalchuck would be offset by the value lost from Naslund, Drury, and a young offensive player.
If there is another way to make it work, go for it. But, with the contract structure the Rangers have it seems like a wash in the end.
by Reg Dunlop on May 6, 2009 9:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
kovulchuk's cap hit $6,400,000
according to nhlnumbers.com (http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=ATL&season=0809). his salary is $7,500,000 for each 08-09 & 09-10. his 43 goals and 91 points from this past season make him so much more worth that money than certain other rangers with similar salaries. cough, redden, cough, drury, cough, gomez.
here’s the rangers’ salary cap hits: http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=NYR&season=0809
by Pookie on May 7, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they could do it
they just have to bury Redden in the minors
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by Joe Fortunato on May 7, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Korpikoski, Zherdev’s RFA rights, Delzotto, and a first for Kovalchuk. Trade Rosival to the lightning for a mid round pick. Dolan’s gonna have to eat Redden’s contract too. If we can move Drury for maybe Marleau, that would really free up some space in the coming years regardless of whether Marleau is a hit here or not. The Rangers need Kovalchuk: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2US4iaPjag&feature=related
"I skate, then I stop skate.."
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by KingHenrik on May 6, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can't Give Up Young Proven Talent
As much of an impact that Kovalchuk MAY have in New York it isnt worth selling the young core of your team for. They played the new system for a half of season. Now you want to rip up the only bright spots we have on the roster and ship them to Atlanta? I agree Sather is an idiot and has no idea how to run a team. Yet if you get rid of Rosival and Redden than you free some cap room there. I just dont see how giving up staal, dubi, callahan and girardi is helping the team in the long run. There is no way Kovalchuk will resign if there is no chance to win in atlanta unless they give him a huge contract. than in turn if they dont have young players in the minors they will go no where. Personally I would love and test these young players and talents we hear about but never see. Since these kids want to stay in the nhl there is no reason that they wont give 200% in this new coaching system. Give it to the trading deadline and see if the seasons a bust or not. If you need to trade dead weight then so be it. But we have one of the best goalies in the nhl. Maybe a soild point man that can make an impact on the power play would help. Dont sell your talant now unless you have too. And quite frankley we dont. If its a rebuilding year so be it. But we’ve seen this time and time again you give up so much for a player that ends up being a bust in the long run. Players like that are head cases and pains in the ass. Your better off with a bunch of no bodys that you can brainwash and conform to your system and beilefs. Much more Chemistry and Potental for Winning… 1980 US Hockey team is the perfect example….
by Richter35 on May 8, 2009 1:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the fear is that
if he isnt signed he will be traded elsewhere and then he wont hit the market because he will end up on a contender.
I’m saying Callahan, Girardi, Zherdev for Kovalchuk, maybe a pick. Nothing too crazy.
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by Joe Fortunato on May 8, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think is
Kovalchuk is not just a maybe. Look at what the guy does. He scores. He hits. I’m not sure about his defense, but is taht what he would come here for?
He was Ovechkin WAAAY before Ovechkin was here. He may not be putting up 60 pts and at the top of the league in scoring like Ovie, but given his production, and the fact he’d probably play with Gomez together I think that is possible since he put up his numbers this year with Todd White and Rich Peverly as the top 2 Centers on his team….
Kovalchuk is as good as Jagr was when he came to teh Rangers, probably a lot better cuz the guy is 26!!! years old and isn’t even in his prime yet.
Like Mr. Reporter said, a few young guys like Callahan and hopefully Zherdev + a pick, maybe Girardi? Will NOT gut the Rangers farm, but will bring them an absolute Superstar. Is on the same level as Malkin or Oveckin or Crosby? I think playing in NY for the Rangers with a few guys like Gomez and Drury to feed him the puck when they play together will vault this guy to where he deserves.
Only think I’m worried about is if him and Avery get along…LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iokjDzIZS6o
by FreeBradshaw on May 8, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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