Should the Rangers make a play for Kessel?
by Joe Fortunato on Jul 25, 2009 9:26 AM EDT
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With the news that Derik Morris has signed in Boston it is becoming readily apparent that Phil Kessel might not be in the Bruins plans. The 21 year old center—picked 5th overall in 2006—had an amazing season last year scoring 36 goals and adding 24 assists for 60 points in 70 games. Oh he also did this with mono through the middle part of the year.
So with the Morris signing and the Ward trade I calculated the Bruins cap on capgeek—view what I did here—and found that the Bruins were actually over the cap right now. But since I don’t know the Bruins very well I could be wrong about their exact cap. But it is safe to say that they are very close, if not over, the ceiling. With this in mind the question has to be asked: should the Rangers make a play for Phil Kessel?
To me a guy who is 21 and scored nearly 40 goals should be a no-brainer to re-sign. But if the Bruins let Kessel walk, which it appears they are doing, then should the Rangers make a move. Now before we start thinking about contracts let’s start from the beginning. Phil Kessel is a RFA which means that if he is signed to an offer sheet that the Bruins fail to match then the Bruins get compensation dependant on the contract. The full list of compensation per salaries can be found here.
So if the Rangers do try to sign Kessel then they would have to give up draft picks in return. And if we would all remember b4mv01 did a fanshot on how the trade for Brian Boyle—which saw the Rangers lose their 3rd round pick this year—makes it impossible to give it to the Bruins in compensation; thus the Rangers aren’t allowed to sign him.
So what would you do if you were Glen Sather? Do you try to make a trade for Kessel, maybe see if you can’t low ball the Bruins. Do you try to sign him to an offer sheer which doesn’t force the Rangers to turn over their 3rd round pick this year? Or do you leave it alone and don’t want anything to do with Kessel? Have at it in the comments guys this is just another weekend post to generate some discussion.
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Bruins are about $1 million and change under the cap right now after the Morris signing. http://www.boston.com/sports/hockey/bruins/extras/bruins_blog/2009/07/updated_salary_19.html
I think the Bruins will try to move a forward or 2 for picks (Kobasew is probably the most likely candidate) to free up cap space to try to sign Kessel. I don’t see a trade happening now becuase there is no way that the Bruins could get fair value in return for Kessel with their current cap situation. I think if they can’t find a way to sign him, they will go the offer sheet route….but I could be wrong.
by Stanley Cup of Chowder on Jul 25, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah thanks for the clarification on the Bruins cap
i was trying to figure it out on cap geek but aside from you’re top 2 lines i was confused as to who would make the team so i guessed lol.
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 25, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In A Heartbeat
Im a go project for getting Kessel here if it ever presents itself. Even if we gotta lose Ryan Mcdonagh and Grachev as the prospects
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by Eddie "The Mouth" Gieck on Jul 25, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lose our two best prospects for a mediocre forward?!?!? Kessel has never averaged a point per game, is coming off an injury, isn’t particularly consistent and – if rumours are true – has a bad attitude and little work ethic. I’d pass on that.
Sure, he is an upgrade on the heartless Russian Zherdev but certainly not worth two blue chip Future Blue.
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by Scotty Hockey on Jul 25, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
please a mediocre forward? the kids 22 he has a ton of potential, could very easily become a point per game player with the right coach and more consistent play.
but with that said,
he is not worth losing Grachev for.
by Ryan McFadden on Jul 25, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fact that Zherdev is Russian is immaterial when questioning his heart, lets keep his ethnic background out of it please
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Jul 25, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't see Boston letting him go
With the numbers he put up it just doesn’t make sense.
Rangers are stuck – they can’t go the offer sheet route. He made 2.2mm last year in ‘Paragraph 1’ salary/bonuses. In the 2-3mm band, that’s a 1st and a 3rd round pick. Rangers don’t have a 3rd round since it went to LA in the Boyle deal. (And the pick has to be your own – not one acquired in a trade !)
So, it would have to be a trade. Which might not be a bad thing – Rangers/Sather seem to do better on trades than FA signings. :D
Not sure I’d give up Grachev, but it really depends on what Boston would want……
by dbmaven on Jul 25, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it is not based on what he was paid last year or what the new team gives him…the compensation is based on what the bruins qualified him at. perfect example is zherdev who the rangers qualified at 3.25 mil. if another team went and paid him the 4.25 mil he wants the compensation is still based off the 3.25. So if anyone can find out what the Bruins qualified Kessel at then the discussion of the value can begin.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why can't people read the CBA?
It is not based on the Boston Qualifying offer. It’s based on the New Club’s Offer Sheet (i.e. in this hypothetical example – what the RANGERS would offer).
Directly from the CBA:
10.4 Draft Choice Compensation for Restricted Free Agents
Any Club that is entitled to but does not exercise its Right of First Refusal
pursuant to Section 10.3 shall be entitled to obtain Draft Choice Compensation from the
New Club. The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based
on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms (as
defined in Section 10.3(e) hereof) of the New Club’s Offer Sheet…….
by dbmaven on Jul 25, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
relax
people make mistakes
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 25, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we are in just as bad a cap situation where we cant afford to sign phil either unless someone shows me where we magically produce 5 million dollars and its not simply dump redden in the ahl cause if that is how you are paying for it staal is gone next year as we will have no money, not to mention dont see the rangers starting 3 rookie d-men this year.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, I think that Kessel is going to get a decent raise based on the stats you presented in that article. With that said, the Rangers have something like $8.6 to work with, so we still need to sign Dubinsky, and wait to see what the Zherdev situation brings. Then you talk about getting Kessel, but I don’t think we will afford him.
Just my opinion.
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by NYRBlogger on Jul 25, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You wouldn't try to get Kessel over Z?
We have a lot of talented wingers and Kessel would be a good center on the first line, as opposed to Zherdev, who at this point will probably be on the 2nd or 3rd, and playing on his off wing, since we already have a lot of wingers who can equal his production (Gaborik, Higgins, Kotalik, Callahan).
by AllHailTheKing30 on Jul 25, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we could get him I'd say do it
Trade Rosival for picks/prospects. Flip those to pick up babchuk. Trade Zherdev, Lisin, Mcdonaugh, 1st for Kessel+ Salary Dump. Waive said salary dump and put in AHL if no one claims him. Sign Dubi with the left over money, 2 youngsters on D.
Would that work or am I Crazy? I’m probably crazy.
by FOXHOUND on Jul 25, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
why would boston take a headcase like Z who wants 4 mil instead of just paying Kessel 5? Also on the rangers end u saved zero money cause kessel eats rozi’s deal and babchuk is going to take at least 3 mil to get done.
also if u think we could get enough value for rozi that we could net babchuk from it crazy would be apt description
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We do have space but...
in the event that dubz signs…we still would have at least 7mill left i think, but we still need one more dman. Kessel would need to be let go or traded to us, then we would have to move callahan to LW, because were in need of one and thats alot of ifs. With that said why not go get another scoring forward, hed make up for a lot of dmen points were not getting from rozy,redden etc.
by louielounz1 on Jul 25, 2009 12:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
A third round pick can be easily attained
I liked the deal for Brian Boyle. He is big and has an upside.
We could trade a lower tier prospect for a teams third rounder and would have enough to get Kessel an offer sheet.
Its worth a shot, Kessel is talented.
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by The American Mr.Hockey on Jul 25, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The draft pick compensation...
has to be the Rangers own third round pick – it cannot be obtained through a trade.
One exception – if they engineer a trade with Los Angeles to get that third round pick that was traded for Boyle – back.
by dbmaven on Jul 25, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont know where you guys are getting 7 and 8 million in cap space to work with
Gabby 7.5
Dru 7.05
Kotalik 3
Cally 2.3
Higgins 2.25
Avery 1.938
Brashear 1.4
Artem .822
Lisin .79
Boyle .525
Forwards 27.575 not counting Dubi and will need at least 1 more
Redden 6.5
Rozi 5
Gilroy 1.75
Girardi 1.55
Staal .827
D 15.627 needing 1 probably 2 more
Lundy 6.875
Vally .725
G 7.6
27.575
15.627
7.6
=
50.802 which is just under 6 needing Dubi and another forward and 1-2 d.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well say
- Dubinsky signs for 2 million, a prospect fills in the 4th line for .7 million. That pushes you’re fowards up to 30.2.
- Sanguinetti makes the team at .85. That pushed you’re defense up to 16.49ish.
- and the goalies stay the same at 7.6.
This gives us a grand total of: 54 million (give or take a few 100K) giving the Rangers roughly 2 mil in cap space.
Waiving Redden turns that 2 mil into 8.5 mill of space. Removing Rozival makes that 2 mil 7 million of space. The Rangers have options to make space they just have to see what they can do with it.
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 25, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as i said earlier if u do redden now to get kessel there is no money to do staal and girardi next year. if that is what u want thats a fine opinion but understand that is part of this trade off.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also whether it is Rozi or Redden they have to be replaced. lets say it is Rozi and they pay kessel 5 mil right back to 2 and need either a FA d-man or 3 rookies on the back end.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we drop Rozi...
I guess that opens the door for the Zubov conversation again. He’s got more life in his legs than Chelios does and he’s certainly not a rookie. Whats his asking price again? If its 1 mil and change it wouldnt be the worst move i could think of.
by AllHailTheKing30 on Jul 25, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i wouldnt mind it for 1 year, but i still think he is more likely going to Columbus to play for Hitchcock.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no mleetch
i compleatly agree that loosing cap space to get kessel is stupid. Wait till next year the UFA crop is much better
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 25, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im not arguing that you dont understand it, im just saying that some people play fantasy hockey in here and forget there are cap problems and other people to sign later forget the cost of actually getting kessel in players or picks.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i never said you said i didnt understand it
unless that post wasnt to me lol. I 100% agree with you
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 25, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What would make sense is
Forget about kessel, get 1 dman like zubov or babchuck, for the right price. resign dubinsky. use saguinetti as the sixth dman, and this might sound crazy … but start the season and save the little bit of cap room for the trade deadline. As long as the team stays around 8th place we can make a big move then, if we’re in the top 4 then we could go all out and push for a cup and if we are dead last that means someone important is hurt. i just think the young guys deserve a chance to step up and our group now seems ready.
by louielounz1 on Jul 25, 2009 3:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
i would love to get Babchuk and dump rozi at which point i dont see the need for zubov cause we would have Staal, Girardi, Redden, Babchuk, Gilroy, Sangs/Sauer/Heikkenen.
Next year we resign staal and girardi, dump redden in the ahl and bring up either mdz or mcdonagh and we have a core for years to come.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Redden/ Cap Space
Okay, People need to stop this talk about Redden being waived/bought out. As much as I would love for that to happen, it just isn’t. Sather feels that Wade can improve and be a better play and all that good stuff.
I would be completely shocked if it happened, but I know it won’t. Maybe in the future, but not now.
Anyway, NHL numbers has us with 8.89 million in cap space. That is without our third pairing dmen, Dubinsky, two fourth liners(maybe boyle amd byers), and possibly zherdev on the nhl roster. So dubi will probably get around 1.5-2 million, Zherdev will most likely be either a ufa, or we sign and trade him. Then you have to go and bring Anisimov, Boyle, Byers, Gilroy, and Sangs/Del Zotto onto the roster which counts against the cap. (Just predicting the players) So after all that, I am not to sure there will be room to sign Kessel.
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by NYRBlogger on Jul 25, 2009 3:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
By the way, I am on my Blackberry so I don’t have the link handy, but I have the link to the Rangers NHL Numbers page on my latest blog post (www.rangerstribune.com). It lays out our current situation.
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by NYRBlogger on Jul 25, 2009 3:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
in regards to redden i have always said next year.
nhl numbers doesnt count artem, gilroy, lisin, boyle or dubi plus one other d-man we will need.
capgeek is more accurate to guess the roster and the cap space.
by mleetch352 on Jul 25, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn’t count them because they are not officially on the NHL roster. But, yes, Capgeek is great because you can plug in players and salaries.
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by NYRBlogger on Jul 25, 2009 3:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see what the big deal is about possibly getting this guy. He’s somewhere between 5’11 and 6’0 and weighs under 200lbs. Reminds me a bit of Gomez. The last thing this team needs is another undersized forward. The Rangers just need to stick with the players they have in place and bring up some prospects from the system. Might not lead to immediate success but it will payoff in the long run. I honestly would be happy with a good run into the playoffs using guys that are going to the core of this team for years to come.
by MartyP on Jul 25, 2009 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
reminds you of Gomez?
Kessel scored 36 goals this year. Gomez didn’t total that in his 2 seasons as a Ranger
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 25, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In terms of size, yeah he does remind me of Gomez. Kessel might have scored more goals but Gomez did a much better job of getting the job to his wingers than Kessel has the past two seasons. This is wholly based on stats since I did not see too many Bruins games this past season. Again though, aside from somehow getting rid of Redden, there isn’t too much else I would do to the roster the Rangers have already.
by MartyP on Jul 25, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mistake
I meant to say that Gomez did a much better job of getting the puck to his wingers than Kessel has the past two seasons.
by MartyP on Jul 25, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
alright i'll agree to that
But Gomez is one of the better puck movers in the league
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 25, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kessel....
… also had a better team around him and Marc Savard setting him up. Currently, we dont have either the skill level or the setup man center on top of losing picks. It’s just not the move this organization needs right now.
by Dekim19 on Jul 28, 2009 1:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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