Rangers Analysis: Examining the consequences of the Dubinsky holdout
by Joe Fortunato on Sep 18, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in New York Rangers Analysis
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PrintToday marks day six of the Brandon Dubinsky holdout, and with no end in site I think it is appropriate to look at some of the consequences of this situation for both the Rangers and Dubinsky himself.
Let's start with Dubinsky. Thus far Dubinsky has missed six days of camp and two pre-season games. He is missing vital conditioning sessions that will help John Tortorella's team survive through this up-tempo system. He has not taken any "reps" as a center with Marian Gabroik and quite frankly Vinny Prospal is making a serious case for being the first line center even if Dubinsky signed today.
The point that cannot be stressed enough is that this is a completely new system. Every single player on this team is learning a new system. No one has played in John Tortorella's up-tempo system--and no the last 17 games of the season don't count--and are still learning the nuances. Dubinsky needs to be with his team to learn the system and learn how to execute it, and he is not.
I have to be completely honest with you here, Dubinsky has done some damage that may be irreparable. John Tortorella is upset with him--and he should be--and we all know how Tortorella coaches; he gives time to those who earn it. Dubinsky has earned nothing so far. Plus, the more time Dubinsky holds out, the more time the Rangers get to become comfortable without him there.
Let's take a look at the Rangers situation with and without him. First we will break down the roster assuming that Dubinsky signs:
Higgins-Dubinsky-Gaborik
Kotalik-Drury-Prospal
Avery-Anisimov-Callahan
Brashear-Boyle-Lisin
Click after the jump for the analysis if Dubinsky does not sign:
Higgins-Prospal-Gaborik
Kotalik-Drury-Callahan
Avery-Anisimov-Open
Brashear-Boyle-Lisin**
If Dubinsky is gone then Prospal would probably move from wing to center--which is his original position--and in yesterdays pre-season game he played well. His passes were crisp and his transition from defense to offense through the neutral zone was seamless. He cycled the puck well, he made room for his winger and he was able to get them the puck when they were open. Don't forget that Prospal has been taking all of the first line "reps" so this would be a pretty easy move.
Who are the people that can fill this prospect role?
Grachev: I have to say in the two games I've seen him play he looked great. He was competent on both ends of the ice and he really showed a great hockey IQ. His passes were perfect and he did a wonderful job setting up a few of his line-mates for great scoring chances. Plus he knows how to use his frame and was muscling people off the puck and was brilliant in the corners. He could easily fill that open spot on the third line, and an Avery-Anisimov-Grachev line looks awesome to me.
Lisin: The Rangers may have something in Enver Lisin. He is scoring goals in the scrimmages and has been using his speed to get chances during the pre-season games. He did botch a scoring chance on a perfect feed from Grachev, but aside from that I have had no problems with his game. He hustles for the puck in the offensive zone and he works his tail off to get back into the defensive zone. I have loved his play and I am beginning to like this move. He can fill that 3rd line spot as well if the Rangers want to give Grachev more time to develop in the AHL.
Byers: Byers looked pretty good thus far in the pre-season. His shots were good and he looked comfortable in the offensive zone. I can tell you that if Byers makes the team he will find himself on the 4th line and Lisin will move to the third line.
Basically the point I am trying to make here is that Dubinsky is truly hurting himself during this holdout. I have to be honest the Rangers don't look any worse without him there, and actually it would be exciting to see Grachev in the NHL this year. Overall here at the Banter we are officially taking the "if he signs he signs if he doesn't he doesn't, we are done worrying about him" position. What do you think?
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Every time I click over to BB
I’m hoping to see “Holdout Over, Dubinsky signs”.
This is getting out of hand, especially for a guy who really isn’t asking for a ton of money (by pro sports standards…) and to me is worth what he’s asking.
Just sign him.
What the f$%k is the internet?
I would
agree with the statement, “if he signs he signs if he doesn’t he doesn’t”. The Rangers will continue to play. The Rangers will have a great and exciting team regardless this year.
Kessel
I think the Rangers are still holding on to the Kessel idea… even though it is cap suicide… I bet if Kessel sings this weekend with another team… Dubi is a Ranger by monday…. If by some stroke of luck the Rangers can get Kessel and deal with the cap next year 1’s line center problem solved….
Either way with the team looking the way it is…. Its not that bad of a situation to be in…
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I dunno BigJim (Welcome to the banter by the way if no one has already)
They would need to shed alot of cap and unless its a 3 team deal the Bruins are worse off than the Rangers are
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 18, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions
agreed...
At this point, I’m fine with the team as it is.
But if he signed, I would like that as well. With that being said, if he has another 40 point season (if he signs), I would say we need to put to rest all the talk of him being a legit first line center.
Great analysis… just a couple of things though, I believe Kotalik plays RW, and Grachev plays LW/C, so a couple of your lines would have to change… but for the most part they look good.
I Like this: Avery – Prospal – Gaborik
Higgins – Drury – Kotalik
Grachev – AA – Cally
Brashear – Boyle – Byers
Apparently, Avery and Prospal have had great chemistry in the scrimmages… Avery scored 2 goals of Prospal feeds (if I remember correctly). And I think that second line can be very successful. Their styles seem to complement each other well. A third line with tons of potential, and a tough 4th line are great as well.
YUP
in the first preseason game.. that line was the best out there..
higgins drury kotalik..
i like the way that looks.. and if dubi signs, hes in there instead of grachev or lisin..
Avery
As much of a problem as he can be for both teams on the ice… His skating ability and heart with out a doubt put him on the first line IMO…. I am constantly impressed with his hockey skills…. It’s from the shoulders up that scare me…. Hopefully he learned from the playoffs last year….
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Hi Jim, welcome to the Banter!
I’ve also contended that putting Avery on the first line would draw attention from Gaborik, and give him more skating room.
I think with Avery you will always have those occasional lapses in judgement, but with a player like him you have to take the bad with the good.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 18, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Sad as it might be
A lineup w/o Dubinsky, like:
Avery-Prospal-Gaborik
Higgins-Drury-Kotalik
Grachev-Anisimov-Callahan
Brashear-Boyle-Whatever
looks quite good.
Even if Dubinsky comes back now, with Prospal solidifying his 1st line spot you have to shift things around to make room. So you might see
Higgins-Prospal-Gaborik
Drury-Dubinsky-Kotalik
Avery-Anisimov-Callahan
B-B-B
Which isn’t as appealing, IMO.
The one element where the Rangers lose w/o Dubinsky is the PK, as it’s one less established player. I think that’s why Anisimov is getting alot of PK time so far this preseason, he’ll probably be put to the task if Dubinsky doesn’t come back.
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Joe their are some problems with your lines in that you have players in positions they dont play. prospal with dubi will be a lw not a rw and kotalik is a rw not a lw.
j-red has lines similar to what i posted the other day other than i dont know how he has left off lisin with the way he has played so far. problem for lisin is he is a rw and the rangers are very deep there so i think he gets stuck on the 4th line. if dubi signs i see it basically come down to a competition between Grachev and Artem for a spot because i dont think either of those two should be here as 4th liners.
Prospal – Dubi – Gaborik
Higgins – Drury – Kotalik
Avery – Artem – Cally
Brashear – Boyle – Lisin
other option is if they want grachev avery goes to the 1st line and dubi or prospal drops to line 3 center which especially early with dubi’s holdout i could see.
Avery – Prospal – Gaborik
Higgins – Drury – Kotalik
Grachev – Dubi – Cally (a line i would really like btw)
well buddy
Kotalik plays both LW and RW, he did it in Buffalo all the time.
Prospal was on the left wing in my analysis with Dubisky in the lineup. Gaborik is a RW there.
Lisin is also a LW/RW so he can play wherever.
Tsn has all of their official positions
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 18, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I left Lisin off because I wouldn’t want to see him on the 4th line… Torts always says how he doesn’t roll 4th lines…. it’ll be a waste of talent. Its better to have him develop his game more in hartford (and bring him up for 3rd or 2nd line duties in case of injury, etc..), or (though I wouldn’t like this) trade for an upgrade on D.
i like the potential of Avery playing with Gaborik to draw “attention”…BUT we all know how Sean acts up here and there..(goalie interference against the devils the other night, brodeur, etc.)..i just dont want to take gabby off the ice any sooner than we have to. as far as dubi is concerned..i think if we get em signed great if not..he is digging his own grave..we have to many young kids who are up and coming and nasty..i dont want to say it is a win/win b/c dubi is a strong presence on the ice..but either way …two weeks to go and the stretch begins!
kotalik-drury-prospal equals prospal on the left wing? my bad, must have forgotten my left from my right then.
oh i see what you're saying
sorry champ swap Kotalik with Prospal
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 18, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Sick line
Grachev – Dubi- Cally that would be a ridiculous 3rd line to watch… I am a huge fan of Cally and I am getting pulled into the preseason Grachev hype that kids got some talent and he is what 19…. IMO Dubi is not a 1’s line C anyway…
"and this one will last a lifetime...." It may have too...
options
i feel like the rangers could plug some guys at center like prospal and avery.
but after looking at the lineup without dubinsky i have to say i would rather see dubinsky as the third line center instead of anisimov.
Anisimov just doesnt impress me a whole lot right now… just hasnt shown a WOW factor yet. Not saying he wont be a good player. just saying id be more comfortable with prospal drury dubinsky, than dubinsky drury AA. Either way neither combo blows anyone away.
I wanna see the young kids come up… i just dont want them to be in over their heads. But the rangers have very limited options with the players they have.
WHY???????????
Must Glen Sather ruin our team every year……Can’t they just get rid of him already and make Messier the GM?
How is this is a case of Glen Sather ruining the team? He made the offer the Rangers were entitled to make. We’re talking about a 13 goal scorer here, not Ovechkin. I’m not going to tell you Sather is perfect, but he’s doing his due dilligence here
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 18, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Please.....
He paid Redden 6.5 a year…..by that standard Dubi should get 3 minimum…..maybe he’s a bit more right here, but I’m sick and tired of this guy. Dubi lowers his price and he still won’t budge, come on. We could use him and you know it and so does Sather. He is one of the worst GM’s in the league.
by blueshirts1623 on Sep 18, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Sather’s main issue has been signing people to excessive contracts, i.e. Redden, Gomez, Drury….
From a trade perspective he’s flat out ripped off other teams at times. Other than the Zherdev/Tyutin trade which is arguably bad in hindsight, he’s had a good track record w/ his deals.
He’s also notorious for lowballing RFAs, because he can, it’s basically a sound strategy especially when you chew up cap room overpaying for UFAs and the player doesn’t have arbitration rights.
Dubinsky should have come down in his demands a while ago and the deal maybe could have been done already. By digging in his heels and not budging when he has no leverage, he hurt himself. You can’t pin this all on Sather. Now that Dubinsky has caved, he’ll see if Sather will budge. If/when he doesn’t, then you can pin this particular deal on him.
Trust me, I was quite vocal last year about wanting Sather gone rather than Renney, but he made the deals for Antropov and Morris (for expendable parts and a couple draft picks), and now it appears that he’s starting to clean up the rest of his mess.
He still overpaid for Kotalik, but he did steal Higgins/McDonagh and sign Prospal on the dirt cheap, made a solid deal for Lisin, and has the farm system completely loaded right now.
And if you still want to argue, the Rangers are in a MUCH better position than the FishStix, so at worst he’s the 2nd worst GM in the league.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 18, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
as a whole we need to get over the Redden contract
lets start now
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 18, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Dubi lowers price
According to the NY Post dubi lowerd his price…
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/rangers/dubinsky_lowers_his_asking_price_1Ne8EvHBgHDKAoOrcXdmSN
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Based on play so far...
I’d say IF Dubi signs, Boyle is the odd man out.
With the play of Lisin & Grachev, & also Prospal playing so well at Center, I’d like to see lines of:
Avery, Prospal, Gaborik
Higgins, Drury, Kotalik
Grachev, (Dubi or AA), Callahan
Brashear, (AA or Boyle), Lisin
i dunno i don't want to see AA or Lisin even on the 4th line
unless it is to make room for Grachev but AA will be the 3rd line center eaither way
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 18, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
yea no way anybody with significant offensive skills will find their way onto the 4th line, unless torts goes against his entire way of coaching with is 99.9% unlikely. Look to see Lisin either in Hartford, on the third line, or as a prucha type role player where hes scratched from th eline up and plays every now and then…
I think Lisins play
has earned him a spot with the big club
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 18, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
i think, regarding avery, if nothing more to take the physical attention away from gaborik Avery would serve a good purpose on the first line… i definetly think that if we are really concerned with getting a playmaking center, then a physical LW would be a great addition to the line… Higgins and Avery would be great…
I can fall to either side of the fence. I personally don’t like the idea that a player is using the shortage of center routine on a club that has drafted him-spent money on his development only to be hijacked at the first opportunity. My only concern is that this is a 3rd line center working towards a 2nd line center at best scenario. What is he going to be like after this supposed contract that he signs expires and its time for new negotiations/ I can definetely see arbitration and since there is less arbitrators who are intelligently qualified – this could be another Z in the making. Not sure if a 3rd line center is worth all the bother with this type of attitude.
You know, I could easily comment using the “this is how the team would look like” thing, but I won’t …haha.
First off, again, we are all just speculating the same thing. When/ If (whatever you want to say) he signs he’s on the team playing on some line, with some players.
Secondly, I personally believe he will get some reduced time. For one thing, Torts hates what he is doing, and other players, namely Prospal, are proving themselves in camp. There is nothing wrong with him working his way up the ladder and reaching the top line in a month or so.
Anyway, you want him back? Good he’s back. Play him? No. Training camp like everyone else. When do you play him? When he learns the team is first. How long does that take? Ask Torts.
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agreed… i think his worth after seeing grachev play has become deminished, as far as the rangers are concerned, there is a future that doesn’t include dubinsky if he does not return, early in the offseason, it was imperative that we sign him to play center, but with the way prospal has looked and grachev and del zotto and gilroy… the list is endless, it proves to us as well as ranger management, that we can succeed in the future without dubinsky, would we like to have him be part of the future most definetly, is it crucial to the teams development now that we’ve seen the talent we have? No… Remember Stepan is about 2 years away, and he has all the makings of a number 1 center, so we are not looking bad if dubinsky takes a hike, as far as the future is concerned…
dubinsky hurting himself ?
look i am tired of the drama with this punk this guy does not deserve the money he is asking for look sather told antrapov and nicky z to go f off and those guys can score more then 13 goals look if he does not sign by nov 1 he can,t play at all this year . i say if we cant get him signed then trade him for a veteran d man or maybee lets say patrick marleau and believe me marleau is way way better then dubinshitsy i mean dubi …
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