Rangers Analysis: What would you give for Ilya Kovalchuk?

at this point, i wouldn’t trade for him at all. There’s no guarantee that he will sign with the Blueshirts after his contract is up.

And I personally would like the Rangers to sign more North American grinders (aka Graves, Callahan, Dubi, even Higgins) at 2-3 mil each then sign another 7 mil (if not more) finesse player.

but I have a strong bias towards players that score AND hit (hockey is a physical game and all players should finish their checks) and I think players with less skill but who play the physical game will be more successful in the long run.

I say pass on Kovalchuk altogether.

chippy doesn’t do it for me. chippy is how you respond to physical play, not instigate it.

Waiving Redden alone clears the space for Kovy (sadly, Redden’s cap hit is more)

Roster Player(s): Higgins, Lisin
Prospects: Sanguinetti, Mike Sauer.
Picks: 2010 2nd, 2011 1st.

Upsides for Atlanta:

Sanguinetti and Sauer both rate higher than any D prospects currently in the Atlanta organization (according to hockeysfuture), which could replace Kubina and/or Schubert (UFAs)
Higgins gives a boost to a bottom 10 PK, and “change of scenery” may see him wake up down the stretch.
 Lisin has obvious offensive talents and playing with more talented centers than Brian Boyle may get him to reach potential. Also an RFA so Atlanta would control him for beyond the year. Combination of the two gives Atlanta two NHL-level LWs to replace Kovy’s minutes.

Downsides:

No immediate replacement for Kovy’s numbers. (But really, can any deal?)
No long term deals coming back, which means still having to re-sign players, but they’re more reasonable deals to re-sign.

Assume that Rozy is made gone (I think that’s the most likely). So that’s $5 mil off the cap. So, 1.3 needs to go. Atlanta is going to need at least one, maybe two NHL caliber, relatively young players for him. Add to that, Atlanta has always had defensive issues.

Girardi is the answer.

Honestly, it’s either Staal or Girardi and I think we’d rather keep Staal. So Girardi goes and that clears the cap issue. Of course, they’ll want more, including a potential scoring winger to replace Ilya. As much as I hate it, you give them Cally. Callahan is a great player and tough nosed. But, in the end, he’s probably already maxed out his offensive potential (which, as a 20 goal scorer, is not to be sneezed at). Finally, you give Atlanta a prospect like Sanguinetti.

So, now you’ve cleared a little cap room. And here’s the final trade:

Rozy → Minors
Rangers get Ilya Kovalchuk
Thrasers get Dan Girardi, Ryan Callahan, and Bobby Sanguinetti.

What do you think, too much? Too little? Trying to be realistic here.

waive redden…there is your cap savings. this sucks because the nhlpa will be pissed, but it is wade redden, so they might be more understandable.

Get: Kolvy
Give: Prospal (veteran who is very cheap this year), Sanguinetti, Grachev, McDonagh, 2010 1st and 2nd Round Picks

This deal is weak on players who could contribute now for atlanta, but will help the thrashers a ton in the future with the rangers 1st, 3rd, and 6th ranked prospects, according to Hockey’s Future.

By waiving Redden, they have the cap space to re-sign Kolvy and can trot out lines like this:

Dubinsky-Christansen-Gaborik (have played well together)
Kovalchuk-Anisimov-Lisin (let the Russian line begin!)
Avery-Drury-Callahan (good line of grinders)
Higgins-Boyle-Voros/Brashear/Kotalik

Staal-Roszival
Girardi-Del Zotto
Heikenen-Gilroy

While I want Kovy on Broadway, the reality is, the Rangers should not go for it if there is no guarantee he will not re sign with them. Why bother…..wait until he is a free agent. If cutting Redden or Rozi or both clears up enough cap, then we can wait until June or July to make this move without getting screwed when he re signs elsewhere after giving up all of our young players.

To (NYR): Kovalchuk

To (ATL): Higgins, Saunguinetti, Grachev and Conditional 1st 2010

To Hartford: Redden

Atlanta Recevies: Rozsival, McDonough, Dubinsky, Callahan, Staal 2010 1st rounder, 2011 2nd rounder, 2012 2nd rounder.

Rangers receive: Kovalchuck (with definite word he is signing) and Kubina.

Here’s why I think that could happen: Getting Kovalchuck and Gaborik together sounds orgasmic. The Rangers are giving up Staal, who is due a contract next year, and still receiving a quality D-man in Kubina to fill that cap space. Kubin gets 5 million for 3 more years and Kovalchuck gets 8 for god knows how many. That gives us 13 million we are adding on. I think we can bury Voros and Brash in the minors and bring up cheaper guys (I think Stepan wants to come to the NHL next year I’ve heard) to fill the void. We are only losing one defensemen (Kubina replaces Rozsival and is an upgrade) and Girardi isn’t gong to command too much money (we hope). The only thing that kills us is losing offense, but Kovalchuck scores more then Dubi and Cally combined. Let me know what you think!

so the obvious answer is we aren’t getting kovalchuck but we need to get rid of redden and rozsival to make a run at FA this summer

as good as this guy is, there is no way id want another $7+ million contract on this team.

i’d prob separate them like pittsburgh does with malkin and crosby and put them together on the PP and in important situations

Take Higgins and Rozival………PLEASE………and we will throw in Brashear just to get rid of him……
Only GM stupid enough to take this trade is SATHER or Gainey in Montreal…..PS Thanks Bob, Gomez was pathetic, inviisable and lazy…..

shouldn’t trade for Kovy at all. Let someone else give up the farm to obtain him as a rental. Then throw everything we have at him in order to sign him in the off-season.

I would trade Staal, Girardi, and Callahan and a conditional 1st round pick 2010. This is if we trade Kotalik, Higgins, and Brashear, at the deadline and drop Redden down to Hartford next year.

To NYR: Kovalchuk (ATL),

To ATL: Staal (NYR), Girardi (NYR), Callahan (NYR), 2010 1st (NYR), conditional 2011 1st round

To finish the season:

Gaborik Christensen Dubinsky
                 
Kovalchuk Drury Prospal

 Avery Anisimov Lisin

Beyers Boyle Voros

Rosival Delzotto

Sauer Saguenetti

Gilroy Heineken

Everyone hates it when Sather gets a rental to squeak into the playoffs and this seems like just a massive rental for me. According to the rumors out of Atlanta, Kovy is asking for 8 + million. Signing him next year and taking care of Staal and Girardi and Dubinski in the following off season would be pretty hard without dumping somebody. I would rather just accept that we dont have the space to compete in this lottery and move on.

We have a top flight talent already and are producing what looks to be some very good prospects in the next couple of years, even though they wont be superstars.

If I were to make a trade proposal it would be Roszival, Prospal, choice of D prospect and a conditional first rounder. The reasoning is as follows:

NYR- Gets a rental of Kovy with a chance to resign him, albeit doing so might cost us some other player to make all the cap play nice next year and the following year. Even if they dont resign him, they can get rid of Roszivals cap hit. This money can be used to either sign a cheaper defensemen, of which there are plenty of serviceable veterans available next year and to offer long term extensions to the younger Rangers.

Dont forget that Florida gave up Jay Boumeaster for only a third round pick at the draft last year. Since we are not going to win the cup this year, really what we are getting is the same thing Calgary got.

ATL- Roszival may not be the second coming of Bobby Orr, but despite the hatred, he is a pretty good 2nd pair defenseman. Also comes at not too bad a price in terms of real dollars. $4 million this year and more importantly, $3 million the following year. For a small market like ATL, this is important. He does also have the high cap hit which could help them reach the floor if that is an issue.

On top of that they get their favorite D prospect, of which we have plenty of quality ones and Prospal. While he is not marquee, he has done enough in the league to be considered a star. He can play left wing on the top line and have a little marketing power to him.

It might not be what ATL wants, but this late in the game, the fact is, they are not getting a star in return, nor do I think they would get much better. Think of the Hossa deal. 1 NHL player who was not too removed from prospect (Christensen), one prospect, one draft pick. This deal they would get a second tier D man, a pretty good forward that has some name recognition, a prospect, and a first rounder. Would be better than the deal for Hossa.

I really do not want to see Kovalchuk in a Rangers jersey.

If you want it to be “REAL” there’s no way I’d trade for Kovalchuk without a sign and trade. If we’re talking the about the rental market we should be “sellers” coming into the trade deadline, not “buyers”.

We don’t have the cap space without making major roster changes. On top of that, even if we get Kovalchuk I still dont think we’re good enough to make a run for the cup.

How about we trade some of our roster players for draft picks!!!

Nothing. The Rangers are rebuilding. If you are going to mortgage the future, do it when the team is ready to be a Cup contender, but a playoff contender.

The right player at the wrong time is still the wrong player.

Anyway, most people here are overpaying. Think more along the lines of the Pronger deal. Assume a good, young roster player (Staal), a good prospect (Sanguinetti, McDonagh, Werek, Stepan), a 1st and a conditional 1st if he signs. It’s essentially the same as the Pronger deal. Personally, I would make the Thrashers choose one of Sanguinetti or Werek, I wouldn’t offer up McDonagh or Stepan (or Grachev).

Essentially, if you put a gun to my head and said make an offer:

Staal, one of Sanguinetti/Werek/Kreider, 2010 1st, conditional 2011 1st if he resigns.