Rangers Analysis: Should Blueshirts Target Horton?
by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 7:01 AM EDT
in New York Rangers Analysis
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Print25-year-old Nathan Horton from Welland, Ontario is turning out to be one of the most sought after players this off-season, even though he is not a free agent. In fact, he still has three years remaining on his contract with a $4 million cap hit in each, but Panthers general manager Dale Tallon is looking to make some changes down in the Sunshine State and because of this, he will do his best to trade away that $4 million cap hit as soon as possible, preferably before the draft which begins on Friday.
Horton has lost some value due to prior injury problems. He was limited to playing just 65 games last season with the Cats, including four weeks he spent on the sideline with a fractured tibia, but still was able to put up 20 goals and 37 assists for 57 points. Those numbers would outscore the entire Rangers roster in 2009-10, save for Marian Gaborik and Vinny Prospal who had 86 and 58 points respectively. To me, that is very impressive and I think it is safe to say that Horton, who could play both center and on the wing, is easily a 30-goal scorer if he can stay healthy. Another one of those wouldn't hurt the Blueshirts at all.
Several teams have contacted Tallon concerning Horton, but according to the GM a deal has not yet been completed. However, he expects one to be sometime in the next week, as reported by Darren Dreger of TSN:
"Dale Tallon says he's talking to a number of teams, but doesn't have a deal for Horton, yet. The Panthers will be moving players next week."
That was reported this past Saturday on Dreger's Twitter account, so by saying "next week", I am assuming he is referring to, well, right now.
Continue reading after the jump.
If Tallon is placing a deadline on this - as it seems he is - he may become a bit desperate just to get it over with and completed (see Bryan Murray and Dany Heatley fiasco). There is no question that he going to want something of value in return for the star forward, but the asking price may tend to drop slightly if Friday approaches and a deal is not yet in place.
Undoubtedly, Rangers general manager Glen Sather should be butting in on the action and putting offers on the table. If it means trading Brandon Dubinsky, that is fine by me. Dubi has pretty much reached the ceiling as far as his talent level goes unless he somehow has a surprise breakout year down the road. Horton, on the other hand, has already proven that he can be a star, and that was on a Panthers team that was always streaky and unsuccessful overall.
Not to mention that he has only played two full seasons out of his six-season career, so if he can play around 75-80 games with the Rangers, and with capable linemates, he will flourish. Hopefully our friend Sather recognizes this and pushes hard to make this crucial acquisition. Plus, four million is affordable, especially if the $2 million cap escalator is accepted and installed for next season.
At the very least, we have confirmation that Sather is alive and on the hunt. Larry Brooks of the New York Post, as shared by one of our readers, stated in an article Sunday that the Rangers had been in on trade talks with the Nashville Predators for center Jason Arnott.
The Rangers were in trade talks with the Predators regarding Jason Arnott before the center was dealt to New Jersey, Slap Shots has learned.
An impeccable source reports that Nashville turned to Lou Lamoriello once Sather refused to yield the rights to Wisconsin senior defenseman Ryan McDonagh, whom the Blueshirts are attempting to sign for the coming season.
Now, I would much rather prefer Horton over Arnott, but at least we have some closure knowing that Slats did make an attempt and will likely make others as the summer progresses. Right now, an attempt at Nathan Horton appears to be the most logical one, and one that will pay off in the long-run.
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They are not in the running for Horton apparently.
Maybe its a smoke screen and Brooks’ sources are wrong or misleading him but if Horton is in demand i dont want us entering into a bidding war/auction for any player.
Our prospect depth is one of the few reasons for hope so lets not trade it all away. For the right price though, i’d welcome Horton. I just think he’ll fetch alot more than we should give.
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Yes, I heard about that but unfortunately I already had the post ready to go so I figured it would at least be the cause for discussion.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Dubi has pretty much reached the ceiling as far as his talent level goes unless he somehow has a surprise breakout year down the road.
It’s a surprise if you breakout after age 24? After posting more points with harder opponents and worse ZoneStart?
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In less games too.
But this again goes to our discussion yesterday, it’s tough to quantify it, but it just looks like something is missing from Dubi’s game.
by Dave Shapiro on Jun 22, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, there’s something missing, but that quote is basically saying he’ll never find it, which seems silly.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think he will find it here in New York. Elsewhere, maybe, but I just cannot picture him getting much better with the Rangers.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
But then that a fault with the Rangers not Dubi.
Why would Horton come here and be any different? To me Horton is not an elite player like Gaborik so I do not expect him to change the Rangers. He will just be another player that strays towards mediocrity on an mediocre team.
by truebluesince75 on Jun 22, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Not to mention Horton has that cushy SE division to play in.
I happen to like Horton, and he’s a better version of Dubi this instant, so in that you really should make the deal, but to do it because Dubi peaked is silly.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Horton would be different because he is already a proven 30-goal scorer. He is a better player than Dubinsky.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Proven 25. He hit 30 once (but would’ve the year before that if he played 82). Since then, he’s been a 25 goal guy with an injury bug. Which yes is still better than Dubi, but the softer opponents/SE division bump are hiding that.
Which goes to what you say…if you put Dubinsky in FLA, he probably become the 25-30 goal guy easily.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
He would probably accept more responsibility in Florida, so yes, that is entirely possible.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
On what basis though? He’s improved every year he’s been here despite consistently being put in more difficult situations, and he’s still below his peak years.
Sorry, but it needs to be more than a gut feeling on this one when evidence is overwhelming against that point.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
He is streaky and I think what he showed last year is going to be just around what he averages for the rest of his career. He may hit 25 some years, but I don’t think he will be a 30+ goals scorer.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Dubi and what he brings, but he is a player that I would be willing to trade for Horton.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough, I concede that Horton is more value. But now it stems into the other argument…why Dubinsky and not Callahan?
Dubinsky’s as good on the PK, if not better.
Dubinsky’s more talented offensively
Dubinsky’s better at 5v5
Dubinsky’s younger.
Dubinsky’s more consistent.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
For that exact reason. Dubinsky has an edge on Callahan and the Panthers would probably want him over Cally. Dubi was a player that Murray wanted last year for Heater.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
For Heatley, sure…that’s a significant jump.
Given the track record of people leaving the SE div. though, I’m not sure that’s enough of a jump to justify a trade, whereas Cally for Horton presents a jump in our talent, while FLA gets a #1 PK guy (that they don’t have, seriously, Radek Dvorak was their 1st option) and still gets a potential 20 goal guy.
Funny that this is moot anyway, but the theory is fun. It’s just consistently sore subject for me, because Callahan’s name is never even bothered to be brought up. Maybe you’re right, maybe that’s cause Dubi’s value is just way higher and he can command value back by himself.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s what I always felt it was. people have higher expectations for Dubi.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
everyone except Gaborik was streaky
Again, I see more fault with the Rangers as a team , than that of Dubi.
by truebluesince75 on Jun 22, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, there is no doubt that the Rangers are part of the problem.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
new free agents every year
I am just a bit tired of the new FAs brought in each year in an effort to make the rangers competitive every season. It because a forced patchwork of mismatched parts that don’t work together. I would see see the Rangers keep their core for a few more years, lose together in an effort to see them learn how to be winners as a team.
by truebluesince75 on Jun 22, 2010 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s patchwork because the Rangers are rebuilding. They are bringing in stopgaps, like Prospal, to help the team compete while giving the kids ample time to progress and make the jump. We are seeing it already.
Dubi/Cally/Staal/Girardi were the first. Now we see Anisimov and MDZ. Soon we will see Grachev, Stepan, and McDonagh. After that, we will see Werek.
Rebuilding without tanking is very hard, and very time consuming.
by Dave Shapiro on Jun 22, 2010 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Jess was saying yesterday he though Werek might actually beat them all here. Which is pretty sick, but if that’s even 1/2 true, he’ll get here roughly at the same time as Grachev/Stepan.
Now that’s something to look forward to.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
his confidence is not quite there
I agree that Dubi will get better. My feeling is that his confidence, mostly offensive is not there. He doesn’y look to shoot and we have seen that when he does, he finds the net.
Example: Take a look at that great move he made in Washington 2 years ago in the playoffs (Rangers won 4-3). Instead of going to the outside, which he invariable does, he moved to the inside and totally deeked the D-man out of his jock. If Dubi makes more of a straight line to the net when he can, he will be more potent. And I believe this will come with confidence.
If Dubi can put up 20 goals on an offensively challenged team, in less games than most teammates, he will only get better when the team improves and he shoots more.
So I agree, the Dubi comment lacks some vericity.
by truebluesince75 on Jun 22, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
They both address needs but Weiss is cap friendlier and could be matched with Gaborik. In fact, if Dubinsky stays i really like a line of Dubi – Weiss – Gaborik.
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by Jurgennehls on Jun 22, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Dubi-Weiss-Gaborik would absolutely kill other teams 1st lines. Not in overall production, but in that they’d constantly outscore them when they play us, which is one step.
Still need a 2nd line.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Prospal-Anisimov-Cally will do for now.
by Dave Shapiro on Jun 22, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Rather Dubi-AA-Cally if we’re dropping him. Dubinsky takes the faceoffs for that line though.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
i feel like hes pretty useless if not in the top 6, and i think he deserves to be there
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
EC depends alot on his wingers/linemates. If he’s got good one’s, he can excel (thus why he was so good between Dubi/Gaborik).
If they bring in Weiss, he’s actually just expendable.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I could see him centering the second line depending on our situation. But if we bring in Weiss, he really doesn’t have a place on the roster as he isn’t prepared to take on a checking role. Maybe we could trade his rights for a 3-4 round pick?
I like how you think. It’s too early in the morning for me so I’m not 100% here til I get some coffee in my system. We’d have to give up a lot more than Christensen though… It would have to be something along the lines of Callahan + Christensen + mid-level prospect. I don’t think ranger fans would be too happy, though.
Christiansen and lisin and Werek and Sangs i would do in a heartbeat
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
to us christiansen and lisin are spare parts, but to them they can play, with christiansen taking weiss’s spot. The only thing of value wed really be giving up is Werek
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s very sad that Lisin isn’t finding a home here. He’s got so much potential, but all he does is sit on the bench. Is his two-way play that bad? Torts can’t play a defense-first system and whine about the lack of offense, then bring in some offense and complain about the defense. He’s gotta find a balance that doesn’t cripple the team… remind me not to be a pro hockey coach :P
NO WEREK.
Sorry….he’s 19 and might get here before he even turns 21. Short of a monster (and Weiss is not a monster), you don’t give up Werek.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
you prefer to give up a dubi or cally? seriously? cause Jess thinks “he is really working out hard right now, and he is determined to make the team”? Id much prefer to keep dubi or cally and give up werek
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t want to give up Werek before what Jess said last night. That just cemented it. I don’t want to give up any of them, but I’d give up Callahan before Werek.
Not sure about Dubinsky, I’d have to think about it. It’s pretty close to me.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
If you’re not sure about Dubi, what about Callahan + Christensen + Lisin + Sanguinetti? Feels like we’re giving up a bit much, but you have to give to get. And he definitely seems worth it.
It’s really Cally and Sangs for Weiss, with roster filler.
That I do. I do it without EC and Lisin too.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
so would
Christiansen – Weiss – Gabby
Prospal – Dubinsky – Callahan
Avery – Anisimov – Drury
be good?
then we got good depth and i really like that second line
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Moving AA to the second line seems a bit quick. While I admit he does need more ice time, we need to be patient with him, not putting too much on his plate.
A second line of MZA (if he makes the roster, I don’t see why he wouldn’t) – Dubinsky – Callahan, a third line of Avery – Anisimov – Prust could prove to be pretty deadly.
prust is a 4th line player.
I dont think MZA makes the team out of camp, maybe third line is possible but im not counting on it
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Prust definitely has the potential to be a third liner, he’s aggressive and has relatively soft hands. I just feel he was underutilized in Calgary, kinda like Avery is here. Avery could easily put up 15 goals a season if we used him to score.
watching him play, he can be effective for a shift or two with third line to provide some energy, but to me if we count on him as a third liner we are in trouble and making a mistake
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
and i agree with you on keeping AA on the third line
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Funny that moving AA to the 2nd line is quick, but MZA isn’t.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
MZA has been tearing it up overseas in a league where much bigger and older guys are pushing him around, and he still goes into the high-traffic areas and puts the puck in the back of the net. I admit that Anisimov does this too to some extent, but until he learns to keep his head up, too much more ice time is giving other teams more opportunity to end his career.
there is more to hockey than going to high traffic areas and putting the puck in the back of the net, he has to learn the little nuances of the North American game, and adapt to the different style
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Understandable. If he doesn’t crack the roster, I could see him getting a call-up mid-season… especially if someone like Gaborik goes down (hope I don’t jinx it)
Though much younger, it took AA a full year to become dominant in the AHL, and he’s a much bigger dude than MZA.
I like both, and that’s probably our future 2nd line (along with Kreider or Grachev), but if MZA makes the roster, he’s going to get 3rd line (and maybe 4th line) minutes, but AA has a chance to really expand his role this year, which may include centering the 2nd line.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
While I’m somewhat against giving AA third line minutes, it could be the chance he’s been looking for to prove himself, and cement himself as a top-6 talent on this roster. We all know he’s got the potential (most people say his ceiling is second line center), but he needs to develop some chemistry with the players he’ll be with on the second line for years to come. This is why I recommended he play on the third line with Prust and Avery. That would be a grueling, aggressive third line that would forecheck hard and keep the opposing team on their toes. Avery is used in that regard, but I could see him being a middle-tier power forward creating space for Anisimov. Prust seems to be a filler, but with the chemistry he and Anisimov worked, better to keep them together for at least a couple weeks to see if they still have what they had at the end of last season.
Forgive me if this is somewhat of a rant :P
Rants are good. I rant often.
They’re all fair points. Though I’m not sure if you just said Avery and Prust are our future 2nd liners. That could scare me.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I was referring to Anisimov. I went off on a tangent with Avery and Prust. It’s more of a stop-gap line with already developed chemistry and sheer aggression.
Maybe about 20-30 games in the season, I would like to see Anisimov centering the second line with some legitimate talent… I have a feeling it will take a bit, maybe 5-6 games before Anisimov is comfortable there against the higher-tier competition.
Avery could be a second line power forward if we really wanted to use him in that regard, but I think he’s more than happy with his current role.
Prust has the potential to be what Avery is now, possibly a little more, but there’s a lot of if in there. I saw it, but I doubt many others do.
Prust is Avery-lite
With his pest skills. He’s more willing to drop the gloves too. I like that Prust doesn’t try to do more than his skill allows, unlike Avery who sometimes makes overly fancy passes.
I was at a game a couple of years ago where he tried a cross ice pass at the offensive blueline in OT that got intercepted and went the other way for the game losing goal.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jun 22, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
And as a third
avery – anisimov – drury
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats a very nice top 6 on the whole, assuming (dangerous word) player development….
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by Jurgennehls on Jun 22, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
prospal – weiss – gaborik
I want to keep dubi at center if possible, he is good there and thats where his value is highest
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Horton
Division———GP—-G—-PTS
Atlantic———-18—-10—-20
Northeast——17——2—-10
Southeast——18—-5——14
Dubinsky
Division———GP——G—-PTS
Atlantic———-22——-6——10
Northeast——-17——9——21
Southeast——15——5——9
I wouldn’t say Horton racked point vs. the weak SE division. In fact, the only team in the Atlantic where Horton didn’t average at least 1pt/game was the Rangers (1 goal in 4 games)
Horton's career though
08-09: 20/21 pts in division, 34/50 out. Goals 9/21, 13/50
07-08: 24/32 in, 38/50 out. Goals 14/32, 13/50
06-07: 26/32 in, 36/50 out. Goals 15/32, 16/50.
So in 4 years:
In division: 88 pts in 103 games (0.85 ppg). 43 goals in 103 games (0.41 gpg)
Out division: 138 pts in 185 games (0.75ppg). 50 goals in 185 games (0.27 gpg)
That’s a fairly big drop.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, he’s slightly better, but I fear they could swap distinctions if Dubinsky got Horton’s role in Florida.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Bob Mac from TSN just said this:
TSNBobMcKenzie: Hawks cap situation is believed to be so tight that they can’t make qualifying offer to Andrew Ladd and therefore are shopping him hard.
I would definitely consider Ladd if you can low ball Hawks.
blueseatblogs.com
is he strictly a third line player, or is he a potential top 6?
Judging by what I saw in playoffs he seemed like a third liner.
What do you think smurf?
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not going to go crazy either way about a 3rd line LW. He fills a need, but he’s not a must have.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
you think hes only a third liner? maybe hes not worth the 1.8m wed have to tender him then
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
He had a cushy ZoneStart (53.8% offensive zone), cushy opponents (9th of 12 forwards on Chicago in QualComp) and had 38 pts. 08-09 he was much better though.
Last year’s version was a 2, this year’s version was a 3. So he’s something in between probably. Sounds familiar enough.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Ladd can be a 25 goal guy if he can stay healthy. he hasnt lived up to his potential or draft pick yet (4th overall) but he’s playing on a deep Chicago side. In NY he’d be a top 6 guy
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huh, intriguing. Id love to jump on that for under 2m
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
big dude too
Rangers could use that.
KEEP LEE!!!
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 22, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd have no problem with Horton
Dubinsky’s potential seems to basically BE what Horton is now.
If all it takes is Dubi, do it. I dunno what exactly else there needs to be added tho, cuz there probably is something aside from just Dubi.
KEEP LEE!!!
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Looks like I picked a nice heated debate to jump into.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jun 22, 2010 10:31 AM EDT reply actions
I’m pretty sure you’re not allowed in here.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 22, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
That unfortunately
Exists for you on and off the interweb.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jun 22, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
What's the proposed package for Horton?
Prospects, picks, under 25 year old players?
Given the Rangers cap situation I think they need to send at least $2mn the other way.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jun 22, 2010 10:34 AM EDT reply actions
I would assume we’d have to gain salary as Florida is looking to reshape/revamp their roster. Dubs would be the center of the deal but I’d assume you’d add in prospects. Given that Horton is already making $4+ salary cap, I doubt you’re sending $6+ back at them.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 22, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
No more middle level players, please
Maybe Horton is an improvment from Dubinsky, but unless he will drastically improve the team results, I’d pass. Other than Messier and Gaborik, what other free agent/trade has scored in NY. Esposito? Gartner? These types of trades rarely work out. The team needs another “top” player—not more role players.
by It may HAVE to Last a Lifetime on Jun 22, 2010 10:43 AM EDT reply actions
Jagr?
I’d be fine with honestly let this team go into run-off mode for the next 2 seasons. Wait until at least Rozi and Drury are done with their deals and bring up kids that are ready throughout the next 2 seasons and then see where they stand.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jun 22, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Jagr for sure - good point
It may HAVE…. : There’s been plenty of successful trades in NY. After all, not every successful trade needs to result in an elite scorer. Good role players are needed on each team, as are complemntary scorers. You think your Dan Cleary’s in Detroit aren’t success stories because when they were brought in they didnt become your Pavel Datsyuks?
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by Jurgennehls on Jun 22, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I missed Jagr. But my point is on a team with “role” players you don’t need any more. Detroit is a bad example because that team was loaded.
by It may HAVE to Last a Lifetime on Jun 22, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Jagr resigned his contract in the KHL. He’s never coming back, essentially officially.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 22, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
The point being made was that Jagr was an excellent acquisition at the time for The Rangers. Maybe one of the most lopsided deals in history.
blueseatblogs.com
by Jurgennehls on Jun 22, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Ahhh
Thought it was possibly suggesting Jagr could be an answer to our scoring needs. Remember when people were complaining that they wanted Jagr gone from this team because he “didn’t seem to care”?
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 22, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sure if I’d give up on Dubi yet. This was only his 3rd year and he started to show some real promise. If he hadn’t been injured for 13 games he might have even reached 50pts. Horton is high risk, high reward in my opinion. I’m not sure about character. The Panthers called out all of their top players out at the deadline but didn’t do anything. Horton’s name was thrown around a lot in that conversation. The last thing we need is another talented player who thinks the world is owed to him. Then again, do any of us really know Horton? He might be just what we need or don’t. Regardless, I’d stick to the plan with Dubi not just b/c I think and hope he’ll be able to be a consistent 60pt 2nd line guy, but b/c he seems like a really solid presence in the rangers room and he’s homegrown. Besides, Dubi is playing for his future with this club this season. We’ll see what we really have in Dubi by the end of the next season. If he plays more consistently and starts letting more shots rip, we might look at this discussion and laugh at it in the future. I’d be weary of dealing for Horton, even though he does bring a number of good things to the table. As for Ladd, I’d take him in a heart beat if we can get a good deal for him.
I always thought
That Dubi could be the Rangers version of Mike Richards. Richards has better instincts, but their careers for their first couple of years respectively have been pretty similar. The 4th year is a test to see whether Dubi could make the jump from point every other game to somewhere in the 60-65 points range. If he builds on last year he could easily put up around 22-25 goals. The question is whether he’s going to get the 35-40 assists which is ambitious particularly if he plays on the wing. But if he gets paired with Gaborik it might happen.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jun 22, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a stretch to see Dubs go, say, 25-35-60. Consistent top line play plus some maturation plus health.
He doesn’t shoot enough (yet) to get to 25 goals, unless his shooting% truly improved as it did last year. Remember at just 10% shooting (which is above Dubi’s career), he needs 250 shots to get to 25 goals. He has increased his per game number year to year, but even last year was only a 196 / 82 game pace.
20-35-55 is a fair projection, unless he sees consistent 1st unit PP time, which could increase all of his rates.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
He scored 20 in 69 games.
That’s already a pace for (rounded off) 24 goals.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 22, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes…but he just went from 8.9 and 6.9% shooting to 12.1% shooting. There’s some chance it was an aberration and he can’t continue that shooting rate.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
But there’s an equal chance that he’s learning to shoot at the NHL level. So, it’s possible he can score 25 just as it’s possible that this was an aberration. I’m going half full here.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 22, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure…Gaborik jumped from a 10% shooter to a 15% suddenly, in his 5th year, and has been consistent since. So sure, at 12% Dubi only needs 208 shots, which is well within a normal progression.
I’m a huge Dubinsky homer, but even I have a sense of realism. I’d like to see him get to 25, I’m just tempering going nuts about him, like we did with Callahan last year (whose shooting stayed consistent, but his ES play fell way off)
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
by George E. Ays on Jun 22, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Richards is an interesting comparison (not b/c I think Dubinsky will put Richard-like numbers), but b/c of his shooting percentage trend. For Richards, it jumped from 7ish to 13ish in year three and he’s been able to maintain that over 3 seasons now. Hopefully, Dubi’s jump was real. Now, he just needs to shoot more.
Year 1: 157 SOG, 82 games, 1.91 sog/gm
Year 2: 188 SOG, 82 games, 2.29 sog/gm
Year 3: 165 SOG, 69 games, 2.39 sog/gm = 196 shots for 82 games
Is he capable of shooting 50-60 more shots? That might be a bit high but a full season playing on the wing where he’ll develop more of a shooting instinct and who knows how long it really took for him to recover from his hand injury where he felt confident enough to let it rip?
I tend to think he has an inconsistent shot. There are some games where he really leans into the puck and others where he tries to deke for a goal. It’s like he doesn’t have full confidence in his shooting ability. He’ll never have a great shot with a compact wind up like Shanny and there’s only a handful of players like Gaborik with his wrister/snap shot, but I think he just needs to get it drilled into his head that you score goals by shooting.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jun 22, 2010 12:45 PM EDT reply actions
From Twitter
TSNBobMcKenzie
Looks like Nathan Horton to the Boston Bruins is a done deal. Working on details.
Yup just read that
Looks like he will be a bruin now.
by klh2009 on Jun 22, 2010 2:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why move Dubi
Dubinsky is a year younger, 3 inches taller, and 20 pounds heavier then Cally, while both bring the same amount of scoring to the table. In his first 3 years in the league, Dubi has taken on 3 different roles for this team. He started digging in the corners and staying out of Jagr’s way in his first season. In his second season he no longer had Jagr, and was forced to become his own player. While we could have looked for more scoring, he was consistently bringing pressure on the forecheck, and playing the body while the whole team struggled. Last season his holdout started him on thin ice with Torts, and throughout the season Torts seemed intent on morphing him into some sort of scoring phenom that he really isn’t. I think Dubi can be a great leader, and a solid contributer. If he plays on the first line, it’s not because he’s the best player on the ice, but because he can skate with the best players, do the dirty work, and he’s not afraid to protect them. The roll he excelled in centering Jagr.
Bringing in Horton just adds another depth player to a team full of 4-12 players. We need another guy who can make his own goals. Rather then wasting time on Arnott and Horton/Weisse I would love to see Sather seeing if there is ANY truth to the idea of the Pens moving Malkin. It seems out there, but the Pens are small market, so it’s not outlandish. They have alot tied up in Crosby/Malkin and Jordan Staal looking for his payday soon. Fluerry is not cheap either.
I think an offer of Cally, Staal and the #10 pick for Malkin could get it done. Before everyone accuses me of selling off the franchise, we have a GLUT of defensemen coming up the pipe, and we need to give them the chance, while Staal’s D has been a shinning spot on an otherwise underwhelming blueline, he’s one of 6 guys. The Pens need a stay at home D to build around, Marc Staal gets to play with his brother, and we get the weapon we need. Cally is solid digger on offense, who can play in the top 6 while whoever they take with the #10 pick develops.
To finish my thought, that I’m sure already has everyone steaming, we open up a spot to bring in some of our youth, MDZ and Gilroy push the puck forward and we try that “Safe is Death” style again, but now with the right parts. Hank is a stud and we all know it, and for this to work he has to play true to form, but with Malkin and Gabby upfront we can count on alot more goal support for him, and I think that is more important then shoring up the D. He wins too many low scoring games for us, the weight off his schoulders would be huge.
So Much for Horton
lol
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by Nick Montemagno on Jun 22, 2010 4:13 PM EDT reply actions
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Rangers
|
49 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 69 |
|
Philadelphia
|
50 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 66 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
51 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 62 |
|
New Jersey
|
50 | 28 | 19 | 3 | 59 |
|
New York Islanders
|
50 | 21 | 22 | 7 | 49 |
(updated 2.4.2012 at 8:30 AM EST)
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Sun 02/05 | 1:00 PM EST |
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New Jersey
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Tue 02/07 | 7:00 PM EST |
|
Tampa Bay
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@
Philadelphia
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Sat 02/11 | 1:00 PM EST |
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Washington
|
Sun 02/12 | 12:30 PM EST |
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Wed 02/01 | SO - W 1 - 0 |
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|
Tue 01/31 | SO - L 3 - 4 |
|
Winnipeg
|
Tue 01/24 | W 3 - 0 |
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Sat 01/21 | SO - W 3 - 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
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Thu 01/19 | L 1 - 4 |
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