Trading the Tenth
by Rob L on Jun 24, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
in 2010 NHL Draft
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Most of you that have been around the Banter for awhile know that my posts are usually based on statistics and are meant to prove something one way or the other. This one, though, is the result of a boring job that has left me plenty of time to think. The title of this all gives it away; I think Glen Sather and the Rangers organization should seriously consider and aggressively shop their tenth overall selection going into the Draft this weekend.
If the Rangers keep the pick and select whomever their choose, I'm sure because of the depth of this year's draft it seems as though the player will contribute nicely some years down the road. Do I like the idea of passing up on such a probable result? No, but I think if done right the Rangers could squeeze more out of their first-round pick than just keeping and selecting a prospect.
Join me after the jump for more.
My logic is as follows. The Rangers sit at the tenth position in a draft that looks like the top 5 to 7 players will be extremely core players for their teams five years down the road. John Tortorella has already come out and asked Sather publically to not kill the farm system as he looks to improve the roster. So, we can basically cross out moving up the board unless one of the top 9 teams is looking to move down, which would go against Torts' words.
The second option is to make a selection at the tenth position which will leave us with a promising prospect one way or the other who will have to spend at least one if not two years back in juniors or in the AHL. Over the last five seasons these players have taken the 10th spot in the draft:
Ø 2009: Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson (EDM) - A skilled winger with size who still has to prove himself in North America.
Ø 2008: Cody Hodgson (VAN) - Smart and with hands like butter should be a solid center for the Canucks for years to come. Likely one more year of development though.
Ø 2007: Keaton Ellerby (FLA) - A solid potential all-around d-man who skates well yet is still in the minors. Concerns about consistency plague him.
Ø 2006: Michael Frolik (FLA) - 40+ points in his first two NHL seasons, Frolik should be a force for years on the right wing.
Ø 2005: Luc Bourdon (VAN) - A budding young d-man taken from us going into his prime late in May 2008.
When I look at this list, a couple of things jump out at me: 1. With the tenth pick the Rangers could easily acquire a top-six forward or top-four d-man who will need a season or two to develop like I said above. 2. Reason number one is exactly my argument for as why the Rangers should try to trade the tenth selection.
Look; when the Rangers came back after the lockout and improved immensely under Renney all of us we're so grateful for playoff hockey again this was the major success. But, as we have moved further away from 2005, the Rangers momentum in terms of improvement on the ice has since peaked and is heading the wrong direction. The roster is a good solid two years away from a more different/ youthful look, and with Henrik Lundqvist and Marion Gaborik not getting any younger Glen Sather must squeeze as much out of his expendable assets as he can in order to improve what he has now. I feel as though that the tenth pick, given its track record the past five years and the draft in front of us, could yield NHL ready talent that could help the Rangers get back to a top six eastern conference team.
Nothing is more frustrating to me than seeing the Rangers stuck in neutral (7th through 10th) because mediocrity is quickly forgotten. With the right deal, its possible that Sather could pick up a solid left-winger, a second or fringe-second paring d-man, or possibly dump salary at the same time. My point is, unless the blueprint is going to be scrapped and the Rangers are going to re-build, why not try and make some bold moves that will help us in the immediate future? It seem as though the Devils and Flyers aren't going to wait around.
So, am I that bored at work? Is this really possible? Am I crazy for moving one of the higher picks the Rangers have had in years? Let's hear it.
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I couldn't agree more - The pick, Cally, and Staal for Malkin???
As I suggested in an earlier post, I hope Sather is researching if there is any truth to the rumors that Malkin is on the block. The Pens are a small market club, and they have alot of salary tied up between Crosby, Malkin, and Fluerry, with Jordan Staal’s payday coming around the corner. I think an offer of Marc Staal, Ryan Callahan and the #10 pick could get it done. This offer isn’t too far off what Jersey paid Atlanta for Kovalchuk, plus it address a huge need for Pittsburg – a young stay at home defensemen, who will anchor their core for years to come. Callahan offers some immediate impact on the wing, and I think he would flourish fighting in the corners and banging home trash for some of the skill players on Pittsburgh. The #10 pick develops for a few years, and when he’s ready the Pens have 3 years on a cheap, entry level contract.
From the Rangers standpoint, we get the Top 3 forward we have been craving, and a ligitimate 1-2 punch with Gabby. I think Malkin and Gabby with Dubi on the wing protecting them, and working the front of the net, could be a huge top line for us for years to come. Cally brings alot of heart and hustle everytime he steps on the ice, but essentially he is the same support player the Rangers have too many of. He will be looking for a bit of a pay bump after this season, and we have a glut of youth we are committed to.
Marc Staal is the hardest to part with for alot of people, but you have to give to get. Malkin is arguably the top player in the league. While Staal leaves a huge hole to fill on defense, we have a farm system thick with defensive prospects. Furthermore, we have something no one else in the league has – Hank. I think that with a shutdown goaltender like Henrik, an offense that can score and give him breathing room, is more important then a stay at home defensemen. On the other hand, the weakness in the Pens D was shown to everyone during last years playoffs, and Fluerry is no Hank. He needs that big defenseman to help him out.
small market pens? they sell out every game. they have a new rink and plenty of money
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 24, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
No way do i include Staal in that deal. He should be an untouchable on this team.
Here’s the thing with Malkin. He’s another one of those players who shows up when he wants to. He can be such a dominant player when he’s on his game but like alot of Russian players there are times he looks lazy and is a floater.
I’d take Malkin for the right price but don’t include Staal.
Also remember in order to take on his salary we have to shed some ourselves.
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by 76 Blueshirt on Jun 24, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
We have to re-up Staal, and he’s going to be looking in the $4 mil+ range. So, even if we get him at $4.5, we send Cally over at close to $2 and we add in the cap bump and we have him covered. I’m not doubting that Staal is a strong defensemen, but you have to give to get. I think that right now, adding scoring, and not forcing Hank to win 2-1 games, is more important then having defense in front of him . Another big name offensive talent would take the pressure off Gabby, and hopefully help jumpstart the contributions from our glut of 2nd and 3rd line talent who we would now only rely on as secondary scoring options.
As far as the Pens being small market, this was a team that was on the verge of folding without the cap. They need to rely on home grown talent. They had great success with Lemieuz, Jagr, Naslaund and Straka in the early 90’s – then they fell off the map hard (and almost went bankrupt) when those players moved on.This move would let them spread the wealth out a bit, knowing they have a high pick coming down the line, and freeing up money to take care of high picks looking for their payday soon. If we had to bury some contracts in Hartford to keep Jordan Staal, we could do that. The Penguins don’t have that luxury.
Finally, I get the feeling that Malkin and Crosby don’t have the best of relationships – I think Malkin is the more skilled player, but Cindy is the leagues golden boy. Look at Malkins numbers without Crosby in the lineup – when Crosby is down, Malkin shines. I think that is the player we would be getting. I guy with a chip on his shoulder, he wants to win his OWN cup.
by BuckarooClub on Jun 24, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Staal is not getting $4m this year, unless he signs for 12 years.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Based on last years RFA numbers
Anything below $3 mil is a 2nd round pick, $3 – $4.5 mil is 1st and 3rd. Those are all for 2011 picks, since you can’t make offers before the draft. With a weak draft class expected for 2011, i don’t think it’s outlandish for him to see an offer sheet above $4mil.
by BuckarooClub on Jun 24, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s pretty outlandish to think he’ll get an offer sheet unless he’s sitting there for months without a deal. Offer sheets aren’t just thrown around constantly, there’s only been 5 since the current CBA went into effect.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
True – but the threat of an offer sheet can set other wheels in motion when a team wants an RFA – an example being Toronto and Boston last year. I think Staal is great player, with great potential. and I think other teams will see that too. Some GM’s have to be asking themselves, if I can get Marc Staal (locked in for $4mil a year for 3 years) for a 1st and a 3rd in a weak draft class, they would do it. As I just posted on the Staal post as well, there has to be some internal pressure to get a ring quick for Marc Staal, that might have his agent pursuing offers. I’m sure he feels a bit under accesorized at family functions.
by BuckarooClub on Jun 24, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m sure he feels a bit under accesorized at family functions.
This is so ludicrous to even speculate about. Maybe Staal loves NY and will take a paycut. You don’t know any better than I do.
You have to look at his production, and he’s not a $4m defenseman at this stage. And if a team wants to pay him that much…sure, you start to talk about a trade. You don’t just throw him at Pittsburgh because of a million “what if’s” though.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not throwing him at Pittsburgh – I’m using him as the centerpiece of a deal that brings back, arguably, one of the best players in the world. We don’t have alot of chips that bring us back something like that . Half the people on here, suggesting we offer our trash for someone else’s best. You have to give to get, and I think what I proposed is fair, and addresses needs on both teams, without overhauling either roster.
You’re right, I don’t have any facts showing that he doesn’t love being a Ranger, no more then anyone has anything showing that does. I will say, that since he has been with the team, I haven’t heard anything from him about how much he loves the city. He certainly wouldn’t be the first NHL player, who grew up in a rural Canadien town, to not love living in a big city. The bigger point I was making, was that I am sure (having brothers myself) that looking at the jewelry the rest of your family has ALREADY, must make him want one of those rings for himself. The temptation to jump onto a team with legitimate cup expectations is probably very strong.
by BuckarooClub on Jun 24, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, the proposal is fair, I never argued that.
My basic points of contention are the money you think Staal is getting, and of course including our only strong defensive defenseman in the deal to begin with.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Why not throw in Reddon and Brashear too? That’s not going to get it done. Big, Level-Headed, Stay-At-Home Defensemen aren’t easy to come by in this league. The Pens D was suspect this year, and they need an anchor, which Staal is. He won’t give you big offense, but he will help get you out of the last 3 mins of a one goal game. We have a lights out, stand-one-head, game changer in Hank. This decreases our need for stay at home D. My thought is the addition of a second, proven league dominating threat, in Malkin can get us more 3-5 goal games, and Hank can keep the opposition to under 2-3 goals a game, and give a chance. We have alot of D coming down the pipe, we hope one of them step in and fill the void – McDounagh is supposed to be the same type of player as Staal – if not, we see who’s available when Rozi comes off the books.
by BuckarooClub on Jun 24, 2010 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
The roster is a good solid two years away from a more different/ youthful look, and with Henrik Lundqvist and Marion Gaborik not getting any younger
That’s the only thing I take exception to. They’re both 28 yrs old. Even in 4 years they’ll only be 32, which while no longer young is by no means a time when skills start to diminish, especially in Hank’s case. They can afford to wait if they want to.
I know it’s frustrating as hell to actually plan for a 7-10 finish next year (if not worse), but that’s really where they need to go. Trading the #10 would just be another in the long succession of stop-gap moves that Sather has tried to do over the years, and it’s gotten us to the point we are now. Unless you can do something outrageous like Buck is suggesting and get a 80-100 point player in return, you should keep the pick.
Cheap, good players is the way to go, and a top 10 pick is a solid way to pick one up.
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Yes but...
From what I know about statistics is that after the age of 30 a player typically starts his decline. Hank luckily hasn’t really had an issue with injuries, but all players become more susceptible to injuries as they get older.
It will be very interesting to see what kind of late career Gabby has with his past injury troubles.
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Yeah, it’s less definite with Gaborik for sure.
I pointed out somewhere else though that a couple of the elite goalies (Vokoun, Luongo) are 34,31 and showing no signs of slowing down, so that bodes well for Lundqvist.
I think 30 is right for forwards, it might mean 60 pt seasons instead of 80. Which just means by then, one of the kids will have to step up.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont think its a terrible idea but i would have to say keep the pick. That is obviously enitrely dependent on what we would be getting in return, but this years draft is fairly solid and I think we could get good value at 10. Im not sure why you would entirely dismiss the possibilty of moving up though. Torts did say he wants to grow from within but if you could package someone like sangs, who torts apparently doesnt favor, to move up and get a talent like nino, i really can’t see torts having a problem with that.
Is a trade to move down?
Or draft pick for players/prospects? I have no problems with trading down. This seems like a draft where you can get solid players late in the first round if you’re willing take a couple of years to develop. Very few players make the big impact in their 1st season and even some take more than 2 or 3 seasons to full blossom particularly on D.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jun 24, 2010 8:57 AM EDT reply actions
Depends on the trade honestly.
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this is going to be unpopular...
but instead of trading the #10 pick why not package AA and gilroy for something. Dont get me wrong, i like them both and i think they are both solid players, but i dont think they have the same high ceiling as some others in the system. where they are right now however they could net us something fairly significant. AA, Gilroy, and rosi and and next yrs first for brad richards? i dont know if this would get it done but the cap hits would be a wash and they would saving some significant money in real dollars with only 7 mil total left on rosi’s deal. plus a promising young offensive defenseman, center and a pick— not bad while saving some money. If dallas isnt competative by the deadline richards will be this yr’s kovalchuck, so why not go for him now and get the centerman we need for gabby that wont hurt us financially in the future. if it works great, we’ll try and resign him. if not, goodbye richards and hello cap room to sign dubs and cally
If Dallas for some reason does trade Richards (and they probably won’t), they’re not going to take salary back.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd take a trade
if I were Sather, for the 19th pick that the Kings have in this draft along with a fifth rounder (we will lose for resigning Shelley), and get their big 6-3 defensive prospect Colten Teubert.
by louielounz1 on Jun 24, 2010 11:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
i would trade the 10, 40 to PHX for 13, 22, 52 if Nino, Connolly, Johansen are gone. Etem should still be there at 13 and hopefully McIlrath would fall to 22 if not Merrill, Nick Bjugstad maybe.
by Michael Gleich on Jun 24, 2010 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
Pavelski and Marleau both resign on 4 yr deals apparently.
by Michael Gleich on Jun 24, 2010 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
DarrenDreger Sharks re-sign Marleau and Pavelski. Marleau 4 yrs, $6.9 per year. Pavelski $4 mil per year.
About what i guessed for both.
by Michael Gleich on Jun 24, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know why but i had a funny feeling Sather was going to go after Marleau. I’m glad he stayed out west.
This is good news for the Rangers. Another free agent off the market.
Lundqvist-Staal-MDZ-McDonagh-Krieder-Stepan-MZA-Cally-Dubi-Gabby-AA-Grachev-Prust
The core of the 2014 Stanley Cup winners!
by 76 Blueshirt on Jun 24, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Guess I don’t need to fanpost it.
Good deals for the Sharks. Makes you wonder at least a little about Setoguchi’s availability.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
well i used it as a reason to have a small rant on Staal not having one as a fanpost, lol.
by Michael Gleich on Jun 24, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Well that’s acceptable.
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
No thanks on trading Staal. Trade Rosi, Girardi, Bourque, and the #10 pick to Anaheim for Ryan and Wisneiski. Happy to add Voros if they’ll take him.
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and why on earth would anaheim do that when they could just let ryan walk and collect more than that?
by Michael Gleich on Jun 24, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me flip the question around:
Why take one defenseman like Kaberle in Toronto straight up, like many media outlets have been rumoring, including ESPN.com? Why wouldn’t you take two defensemen, a prospect, a top-10 pick (giving them three in the first 20), and a player they can do any damn thing they’d like with?
I Am HockeyMan!!
"When I tap my stick like this (thump, thump, thump), put the puck on the tape, and I'll take care of things." Jaromir Jagr, for Bud Light.
1. who said they should take kaberle for ryan?
2. it’s not two d since you are making them give back wisnewski.
3. the difference in the deals is kaberle vs 10 cause girardi and wisnewski are similar value and rozi’s 5 mil is a negative.
if i was them better to just hold ryan and if your not going to sign him let a team give him an offer sheet and end up with another kessel type deal.
by Michael Gleich on Jun 24, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
So you’d rather lose three picks next season, than take a top-10 and four players now?
I Am HockeyMan!!
"When I tap my stick like this (thump, thump, thump), put the puck on the tape, and I'll take care of things." Jaromir Jagr, for Bud Light.
addendum:
you’d rather wait until next year and have three picks now…rather than fill in at least two of your needs with two defensemen, and a third with a top-10 pick?
Keep this in mind…The Ducks have the #12 and #16 picks in the first round. Meaning they’ll get at least one forward and one defenseman. So, if you could possibly get two forwards and one defenseman, or a forward, a defenseman, and a goalie…on top of having two NHL-ready defensemen…you wouldn’t do that?
I Am HockeyMan!!
"When I tap my stick like this (thump, thump, thump), put the puck on the tape, and I'll take care of things." Jaromir Jagr, for Bud Light.
Let’s add this.
Would you rather give $5m of your cap to Rozsival or $6m to Ryan?
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
the ducks have 12 and 29 since the flyers made the finals, lets start with accurate facts first.
why take on any salary for ryan instead of just signing him as smurf said. the number 10 pick for ryan is not enough for me to trade him when you look at Dustin netting the 24, 54 and a good prospect just yesterday and if someone gives Bobby the offer sheet he wants they will likely get a 1, 2, 3 next year minimum and if he gets over 5.3 they get 2 1’s, 1 2nd, 1 3rd, so yes that is worth more than rozi girardi and the 10 pick.
by Michael Gleich on Jun 24, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I get you, but with a question…considering the two offers the Ducks got from Toronto, what makes this deal so undesirable?
I Am HockeyMan!!
"When I tap my stick like this (thump, thump, thump), put the puck on the tape, and I'll take care of things." Jaromir Jagr, for Bud Light.
For one..
Burke said the retirement of Scott Niedermayer did not spur any talks with Anaheim about Tomas Kaberle: "I have not had any meaningful discussions with (Ducks GM) Bob Murray about any player on my roster, or his roster. Certainly not Bobby Ryan."
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by George E. Ays on Jun 24, 2010 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
Some people on here have been playing too much NHL 10 on thier XBOX 360…. “Rosi, Girardi, Bourque, and the #10 pick to Anaheim for Ryan and Wisneiski. Happy to add Voros if they’ll take him.” … You have got to be kidding !!!! Ryan will be a 30 goal a year stud for the next 10 rs!!!!!
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Just keep the 10 and take Etem or one of the big Dmen Merrill, Forbort or Mcilrath, assuming Nino, connelly and Johansen are gone. Carolina, TB and Atl could easily have better years in 10-11. The 8 teams that finished ahead of the Rangers will probably do it again next year, Mtl maybe the exception. You might as well build for the future. Drury and Rosi come off in 2 years and give you better options. Slats could surprise us with a decent trade like Souray for Redden Please! Two less years of that cap hit!
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