FanPost

#24 and #17 - Penalties and how they deal with them

WASHINGTON - APRIL 18: Ryan Callahan #24 of the New York Rangers scores at 7:44 of the first period against the Washington Capitals and is greeted by Brandon Dubinsky #17 (R) during Game Two of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Round of the 2009 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Verizon Center on April 18, 2009 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

In Part One and Part Two, I looked at how Ryan Callahan and Brandon Dubinsky performed individually, with a heavy focus on even strength play.  This time around, we're going to look at their play on special teams, and their role in creating those situations.  We start with the penalty kill.

Players in the NHL don't normally log more than 250 PK minutes during the course of a single season.  Thus, the best thing we can do is take both players total PK thus far in their career.   Here are the numbers (rankings based on forwards with at least 0.5 TOI/60):

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

TOI

TOI/G

GA

SV%

QC

QT

QC

QT

QC

QT

Dubinsky

251.46

1.079

11

0.933

7 of 7

4 of 7

3 of 8

4 of 8

N/A

N/A

Callahan

414.45

1.974

38

0.873

2 of 7

6 of 7

6 of 8

3 of 8

1 of 9

7 of 9

As a reference point, both Callahan and Dubinsky logged over 1000 ES minutes in just 2009-2010 alone.  So you can see that even with 3 years of data, we're still looking at a fairly small picture.  Nonetheless, it is clear that Callahan is the workhorse here.  He gets very little help, and takes on most of the hard work.  Despite that, he puts up a very respectable 5.50 GAON/60.  That number is difficult to produce when you don't get luck from your goaltending, yet Callahan hasn't gotten said luck, with his goaltenders producing a very average .873 sv% (in fact, equal to the total league average this past year).  It should be obvious, then, that Dubinsky's numbers have a bit of paper tiger to them.  His 2.62 GAON/60, while excellent, is not sustainable, as long as it relies on a ridiculous .933 sv%.  Eventually you'll see him take his lumps a bit, especially as he grows more into the role as a top 4 PK player. For those curious, both have been on the ice for 3 SH goals in the three years.

The power play is next, after this non-commercial break.

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

QC

QT

QC

QT

QC

QT

Dubinsky

4 of 11

8 of 11

4 of 9

1 of 9

4 of 10

7 of 10

Callahan

3 of 11

1 of 11

6 of 9

8 of 9

N/A

N/A

TOI

TOI/G

GF

G

PTS

IP%

SH%

Dubinsky

530.65

2.277

36

10

25

0.694

9.023

Callahan

387.72

1.846

35

11

24

0.686

10.671

The column "IP%" refers to Individual Point Percentage, the percentage of points a player acquires relative to the numbers of goals scored while the player is on the ice.  It serves as one way to measure how much a player is actually contributing to the goal production.  It should come as no surprise that Gaborik led the team in this category in 2009-2010, posting an IP% of 0.813.

Now initially, it looks like Callahan has been the more useful player on the PP, with mostly equal production in 150 less minutes, and the team producing as many goals on fewer shots.  Let's look at the yearly breakdown .

 

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

 

TOI

G

A

PTS

TOI

G

A

PTS

TOI

G

A

PTS

Dubinsky

146.70

6

4

10

187.12

3

5

8

196.83

1

6

7

Callahan

252.45

9

11

20

121.78

2

2

4

13.48

0

0

0

Here we see that Dubinsky has shown consistent growth over time, despite a reduction in ice time.  Combined with consistent opponents levels, everything seems on the up and up with his growth as a forward.  Callahan OTOH, did mostly nothing with his time last year, while this past year, given the best possible teammates, he flourished.  So which is the true performance?  We'll need at least another year to begin to determine that.  What we can tell though, is that neither can be considered a PP specialist to date.  Productive, yes, but not great.  So for those hoping to see either become a 65-70 point player, for now, that doesn't seem possible. (Only Wojtek Wolski and Loui Eriksson managed 65 points this year with fewer than 15 on the PP)

We'll tackle one more item here, which is penalties.  As both play controlled, aggressive games, the ability to avoid taking penalties and simultaneously draw penalties can be considered especially important for these two kids.  Here's how they've done:

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

Drawn

Taken

Drawn

Taken

Drawn

Taken

Total

Dubinsky

29

13

23

19

16

13

+23

Callahan

22

7

22

8

19

9

+39

Callahan is quite consistent in this "skill," whereas Dubinsky's value came mostly during his rookie season.  Still, over the past 3 years, the two have added, on average, an extra 20 power plays per year.  Using some presumptuous approximations from Gabe @ behindthenet, where a penalty adds 0.2 goals, and 6 goals adds a win, you're talking about an extra 1.3 points in the standings each year.  As we have unfortunately seen, those points can be the difference between making the playoffs and not, and must be considered an important and underrated value that they both provide. 

Are there other conclusions to be made here?  Perhaps.  You could take this as the evidence that Ryan gives a solid effort, and isn't prone to lazy or stupid penalties, while Dubinsky has fallen prone to just that over the last two years.  I think that is the belief in the court of public opinion with both, and that would seem to be at least partially confirmed here.

In the final installment of this series, I will go through a WOWY (with or without you) analysis of both players this past year, along with some final conclusions based on all of the information covered thus far.

Thanks for reading.  Begin your intangibles arguments.......now!

stats credit once again to behindthenet.ca

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Blueshirt Banter

You must be a member of Blueshirt Banter to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Blueshirt Banter. You should read them.

Join Blueshirt Banter

You must be a member of Blueshirt Banter to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Blueshirt Banter. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker