Rangers Analysis: Looking Into The Frolov Deal
by Joe Fortunato on Jul 28, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
in Rangers Analysis
210 comments
The New York Rangers and Alexander Frolov agreed to a one-year $3 million dollar contract yesterday, seemingly putting an end to the Rangers off-season moves; aside from re-signing RFA Marc Staal. The 28 year-old Russian sniper was drafted 20th overall in the 2000 NHL entry draft by the Los Angeles Kings, and thus, spent all of his seven NHL seasons with the Kings.
While the Kings were intent on bringing back Frolov, they put his negotiations on hold as they tried to sign Ilya Kovalchuk; and didn't make any secret about it. Frolov was understandably upset about the way he was treated and as a result, began taking offers from other teams. Among the offers he received was a 4-year $20-million dollar lure from the KHL. But instead he chose to remain in the NHL, and join the New York Rangers.
Before we get into what Frolov means for this upcoming season I want to make a point about his character. Frolov turned down $5-million dollars a year from the KHL in order to play with the Rangers. So for those of you who think that the Rangers were the only team that came calling, they weren't. He wanted to be a Ranger, which means something in my book, and it should resonate with you all as well.
Join me after the jump for more analysis.
Now back to Frolov. Last year was a rough season for Frolov, with him notching only 19 goals and 32 assists for 51 points in 81 games. The goal total was the lowest of his career excluding his 14 goal rookie season (that's saying something right there).
Frolov is a natural goal scorer, who also has the ability to find his line-mates constantly throughout the game. In his seven seasons he has eclipsed the 30 goal mark two times, and the 20 goal mark five times. He is also basically a guaranteed 50+ point guy. Starting from last season to his rookie year he has put up 51, 59, 67, 71, 54, 48 and 31 points respectively.
For those of you who are worried about his decrease in numbers, it's because of two reasons. The first reason is that the Kings have forced Frolov to become a better two-way player, and now he is a very formidable two-way guy. The second reason is that his power play time has been decreased - mainly because of the addition of Ryan Smyth, who plays a similar style of play as Frolov. Expect Frolov to get big time power play minutes under John Tortorella.
So let's look at what he brings to the Rangers themselves. For starters he will help the power play dramatically, and see tons of time on the unit. Want to know the best part? His style of play is scoring the dirty goals in front of the net, which should help Ranger fans stop ripping the hair out their heads.
Aside from the power play help he will take a ton of scoring pressure off of Marian Gaborik. Teams can no longer just play a blanket defense against Gaborik, because Frolov can easily score with the best of them. Frolov will also make more space for Artem Anisimov, Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan and whatever forward prospects end up making the team.
In the end, you can't be upset with the deal. It's for one year, and it allows the Rangers a ton of flexibility. Say that the Rangers are tanking, and won't be making the playoffs come February. Frolov will be a nice bargaining chip for playoff contending teams whoa re looking for some experience and scoring help.
At best - and this is my opinion on the situation - he makes the Rangers a very dangerous team to play against. You might not think that this addition makes a huge difference, but I do. This team and last year's team are basically akin, and adding a 20-30 goal scorer to last year's team (along with all of the increases we can expect from last years youngins') would have made some nice changes.
Anyway have at it guys the floor is yours. What do you think of the situation?
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I agree 1000%
I dont see any downside to this move, i really dont. Its low risk-high reward. Realistically it doesnt rob a prospect of a place because Grachev, Stepan etc all would benefit from less pressure and more minutes at the AHL level.
Frolov also knows he’s playing for his future. If he plays well, scores alot then he may get a new deal in NY or at worst he peaks the interest of other NHL clubs. I would not be opposed to re-signing him if he does well. For all the intentions of blooding the kids you do need some veteran presence and he can take Prospal’s roster spot assuming he’s not here after another season. I said something similar on blueseatblogs.com
I dont know why there’s been pessimism towards Frolov. I think him taking much less security from NY as opposed to the KHL option speaks volumes for him as you say.
blueseatblogs.com
what ifs
I would love to see AA make big steps this year and half way through the season see a Frolov AA Gabby line. But AA has a long way to go before that is realistic.
I wrote on bsb that I think AA can hit 50 points this season.
Assuming he does take a top 6 center spot (a realistic hope) he’ll likely end up with one of
Frolov/Prospal on his left and Callahan on his right. He can definitely make the step up.
I actually think even with Frolov on board this team needs Anisimov to become a 45-50pt player to have a good year. Any more than 50 is a bonus.
blueseatblogs.com
If AA doesn’t get 150+ minutes of PP time, I will lock up he’s under 50 pts right now.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
Nice post Joe…agree with all points especially the one about the garbage goals. I was checking out the rangers website with his highlights and a majority were just him parked in front putting the garbage away. He will definitely help our pp..not to mention putting him with someone who shoots the puck even strength.
by inHANKweTruST on Jul 28, 2010 7:31 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
joe of course you loved the move….you were clamoring for the Rangers signing him for 5 years at 25m! But in all seriousness good write up, i agree and am very happy with the move as well, love the fact that its for one year
Dude
I have been waiving the Frolov Flag for like two years now lol.
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 28, 2010 10:12 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Dare i speak out of turn but Sather has had a fairly damn good offseason on the whole.
blueseatblogs.com
Ahhhh,
The redemption of Glen Sather! You all know I was never on the fire Sather bandwagon. He’s made a few terrible moves but has also managed some crazy deals to get out of them. Lets see what they do with Redden, who I blame on Redden more than Sather.
A buddy of mine scouts for a team out west and he was telling me that he thinks Frolov is going to be more of a playmaker for us, which probably isn’t what most want to hear, but it’s still what’s needed, especially on a line with Gabby. Even if he doesn’t crack 30 goals again, I’ll still take a guy who can protect the puck the way he does…something we’ve def been missing…
Agree…no real downside on this. Though I keep seeing people say he is taking a spot from a kid…who? We have no prospect who is ready to step in on the 1st and 2nd line. Even if Grachev or Stephan have a break out year in Hartford and are ready for a mid-season pick call up and there is no spot…then at worst we are looking at a few months delay in their advancement. Nothing life shattering and they could probably use a little more time there as well.
all in all I am pretty shocked and admittedly impressed on how Slats worked this off-season…but that fact could point to someone else running some of the show behind the scenes…Mess?
Otherwise he as an organization are in a hover period, hovering around waiting for the Redden and Drury contracts to drop off the book. Hovering around before our wave of prospects start to mature. In the meantime the goal from a business perspective is to make the playoffs for the cash.
I would much prefer that we just give up and get a better pick, but this is NY…we don’t give up. Plus it is the money in the pockets that allow us to turn around and try to land top players in the league….done right, its a winning formula…kids plus the right veterans.
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jul 28, 2010 8:11 AM EDT reply actions
while i agree about the better pick
we’d all surely rather see a winning franchse, a playoff regular franchise and… success breeds success. I’d rather see the kids be slotted into a side routinely making the playoffs than being inserted into a bottom feeder. Its easier to develop kids when there is a winning culture around them.
And thanks to good drafting the last few years (i.e. getting good players outside of the 1st round like Stepan, Grachev, Callahan, Dubi) we can afford not to have a top 6 pick even if it would expedite a rebuild.
blueseatblogs.com
absolutely. I watch for entertainment. Just that sneaking into the playoff and .getting swept isn’t entertaining. I think they are going to try to get over that hump without going the tanking route. Will be harder to do, but as you said, we really don’t want to see that.
And you are right, there is the intangible of having the kids gain experience in winning and fighting to win…not losing.
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jul 28, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions
the only player who i might disagree with you over is MZA. he was never guarenteed a spot, but the way sather agresively pursued him made us all think that he was destinged to be on broadway this yr. i would have loved to see what he could getting 2nd or 3rd line mins, but now it seems he will be a fourth liner or in hartford for much of the season (unless dru is dropped to the 4th line). im not saying this is the worst thing in the world, as frolov is definitely a great talent, but it does block mza’s north american development
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
To be honest
i think a year in hartford is best for his north american development
to add on that
Everyone wanted Grachev to make the quick jump, but now that the year ended, we all can conclude it makes sense. The fans being eager to watch him shouldn’t dictate whether he makes the club or not.
Further, if it doesn’t work out, people will start losing faith in him. It happens faster in New York then anywhere else.
i dont think grachev and mza is a fair comparison. when we got grachev he was still completely raw and getting used to his massive frame at 18. mza is older, more mature and much farther along in his development than grachev was. he also played in a very solid league last yr putting up fantastic numbers against grown men. imnot saying mza is a sure point producer in nhl right now, but it is certainly easier to make a case for him than for grachev.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with the pick up as he is one of the top 6 forwards on the team immediately. The issue as I see it is that we still have too many 3rd/4th liners which wiill force a youngster (Weise) to Hartford. Chris Drury cannot be a 3rd/4th line guy at his salary. We are paying for some bad contracts and a pick beteween 8 and 12 looms for next summer.
I think Weise still makes it. He’s ahead of Byers in Torts’ mind, i think Boyle will be one to miss out and i think Boogaard will only dress when he’s needed. Torts has also shown that he’s not afraid to put Avery on the 4th….
blueseatblogs.com
im hoping mza makes this team outta camp over any of them. i would like to see byers or weise on the team but realistically that puts whoever makes it between them as a healthy scratch (if booogs is needed in the lineup) which is not the greatest thing for them.
Iceman- dru can and should be a third or fourth liner this yr despite his salary. if redden was a third pairing defenseman at his salary, dru can easily be in the bottom six
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Just to add to my original thought, usually I am a pessimist when it comes to the Rangers…
But I really feel like we have started to turn the corner for the following reasons:
This off season tells me either Slats aint running the show or he finally gets it. Yeah we overpaid for Boogie but we had a need and we went out and got the BEST person for it. A premium was paid but a lesson was learned with Brasher. If you are going to get someone to fill a role, get the right person and pay a bit more.
If they really send Redden to the minors it sends a strong message. Yeah it was a major screw-up but now being admitted and rectified.
Frolov, 1 year contract. Finally put it on the FA to come here and PROVE they are worth the money.
Gordie running the draft. Will he be 100%? Of course not, no scout is but I have a lot of faith in him.
I think we really got some good potential in the farm system and in the new cap era (welcome to the present slats) you needs those good home grown (read entry level contract) players to step in.
What else am I missing?
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jul 28, 2010 8:39 AM EDT reply actions
I honestly think it’s a mistake to pair Frolov and Gaborik together, though it will be done at times, if not the majority.
Two reasons:
1) Torts typically had Gaborik out against other teams top lines. Frolov doesn’t have a history of being able to handle that type of opposition (his +/- and QC show a reliable correlation through the last 4 years)
2) Frolov-Gaborik together still means teams can use 1 strong defensive unit to give us fits. Shut that line down, and the secondary scoring issues rear their head again. It will be slightly less of a factor since two of Prospal/Christensen/Dubinsky will be on the 2nd now instead of one, but still an issue.
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True, but if I were coach you would see it on the powerplay and more so at home games when I have the last change
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jul 28, 2010 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah..I’m talking about even strength. It’s a lock that Frolov-Gaborik will play together on the PP, it’d be silly not to.
I’m not saying there aren’t situations for it either…obviously late in games where you’re trailing, you might shift them together…but in general, it’s a bad idea, IMO.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree, PP aside they should balance out the scoring. When you look how deep defences such as Philly’s is we need to be a threat for every shift. Frolov on the second helps that.
Prospal – Dubinsky – Gaborik
Frolov – Anisimov – Callahan
That has a nice look to it.
blueseatblogs.com
Dubi aint a C anymore- we can put it in here all we want, but torts wants him on the wing and thats where he’s likely to stay.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
+1,00000000
agreed whole heartedly smurf. although i didnt know about the qual comp #’s for frolov, putting these two guys together seems silly to me, and ive been preaching against it on several threads. first off, we had a very solid first line last yr. gabby is not realistically going to get much better than he did last yr, even playing with frolov. so why not leave dubi-ec-gabby together and spread our scoring threats out? having frolov on a second line forces teams to split their top pair- thus giving gabby the advantage- or leave them together against the first line- thus giving frolov / prospal / cally the advantage. it makes this team much deeper, the exact element we were missing last year.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I see them playing together on the powerplay and in pressure offensive situations, but thats really it.
But i guess it’s up to torts
actually Smurf
I was talking more about them being paired on the power play :)
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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 28, 2010 10:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You were, yes.
Home many in this thread already have them together?
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
How..not home. WTF brain fart.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I love the move.. enough said
In the end if we didnt have to lock up Staal or if we didnt have Redden/Rozi/Drury this guy is easily a $4m guy IMO but $3m is even better and if he plays good we can keep him.
Frolov-Prospal-Gabby
Dubi-EC-Cally
Avery-Anisimov-Prust
Boog-Drury-Weise
I actually think with these 4 lines and a Redden and McD swap that we would easily make the playoffs in the eastern conference but probably wont contend unless 1 of Cally/dubi/anisiomv makes a huge jump to a legit 1st line star
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i would drop weise to the healthy scratch (or swapping with boogs and making him the scratch against non division teams), drop prust to the fourth line RW and add MZA in the third. I am really hoping we get mza onto the big club this yr and playing some minutes (non-fourth line role). we have incorporated at least 1 or 2 young guys into the big club each year for the past few yrs (MDZ, AA and Gilroy last yr) and i hoping the mza, along with McD, are the guys this season. both could make a signifigicant impact this year, and would benefit greatly from the experience
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
no i would keep him in hartford. i was saying in the scenario presented above i would prefer to have mza as the third line rw. we are going to need someone to swap with boogs however, as he shouldnt be on the ice for anyone except the flyers and devils, and it will most likely be a weise/byers/dupont
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I know this wont go over well with Avery fans (or Avery for that matter), but here’s how I’d like to see the lines (Assuming MZA is the real deal)
Frolov EC Gaborik
Dubi AA MZA
Prospal Dury Cally
Boog Avery Prust
that simply isnt happening
Several reasons why.
Frolov + Gaborik
Prospal wont be third line.
And every wont center a line.
and thats a very, very inexperienced 2nd line.
blueseatblogs.com
not to mention dubi and AA cant carry a second line with their expected production- you would have to expect a HUGE year for mza which is too much of a gamble. also- stop messing with last yrs first line, it wasnt the problem. our secondary scoring was the problem and sather just signed a solution to it if we can accept frolov on the second line.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree. Good Move.
Not much to argue. Move looks much better after the Isles pay $2.4 for Moulson.
by It may HAVE to Last a Lifetime on Jul 28, 2010 9:33 AM EDT reply actions
and that is why? moulson netted 30G last year and 48 pts. frolov had 19 and 51 points. obviously there is a decent chance moulson was a one year wonder, but based on prior year production hard to argue that moulson getting less money makes frolov signing look better.
Moulson is a one year deal. As soon as he’s off the line with Taveres he’s done. Frolov has put up the numbers on a much more consistent basis.
by It may HAVE to Last a Lifetime on Jul 28, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
a consistently declining basis. not trying to be negative on the guy as i have liked him for a while but since he was taken away from kopitar his numbers have dropped as well.
To defend him slightly,..
Here are his ES points per 82 since he joined the NHL:
28, 32, 35, 40, 56.5, 34, 38.5. So other than the ridiculous spike in 07-08 (where he faced the worst competition LA had to offer), his production has been relatively sane.
Now, one could also look at that and say he peaked already, which is certainly possible. But if he gives 35 ES points and 20 PP points, and maybe 1-3 SH points, I think everybody would sign for that right now.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
not saying he isnt worth his 3 mil especially considering it is 1 year and the last winger we signed for 3 mil was that Kotalik guy and he got 3 years. just saying let’s not annoint him as it seems some are doing expecting 07-08 to reappear and he goes for 70+. 50-55 is reasonable and he will certainly help the powerplay as even in down years he is good for about 15 pp points.
I’m not saying you’re not saying that.
I’m just pointing out that the “decline” might be illusionary. Since his ES points don’t have a ton of fluctuation to them, the decline in his PP time in the last 3 years would seem to be the biggest factor in his total boxcars showing a drop.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
As soon as he’s off the line with Taveres he’s done.
Just to play devils advocate here…why would they take him off Tavares’ line, given their success together last year.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Q: Did Tavares really have a successful 2nd half of the season??
by It may HAVE to Last a Lifetime on Jul 28, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Pre Olympics 34 pts in 62 games, -18
Post Olympics 20 pts in 20 games, +3
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
agreed
Frolov has 5 years of 20+ goals so he’s easily worth the 600k extra compared to Moulson’s 1 year CV
blueseatblogs.com
by Jurgennehls on Jul 28, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
which is why the rangers get in trouble because we pay for the past and not the future. last year when kots came it was he has had 20+ 4 times so he is good for 20, well we saw what happened. i think frolov will be solid and put up 50 pts, but then again so would have Zherdev.
interesting quesiton. frolov for 3 mil or Z for 2?
i think i would take frolov. zherdev is younger (and possibly more skilled) but would have been in torts doghouse before training camp even started simply because of past ranger experience. at least frolov is going to have something of a blank slate to prove himself (although still stands a good chance of pissing of torts)
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Frolov. The special teams are the tie-breaker, Alex is better at both PK and PP then Z.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
smurf, as the resident stats man is frolov more likely to be at the 10 or so % he was last year or revert back to the career level of 14% shooting as i notice in his two big years his shooting % was an unsustainable 18%
14%, IMO.
I’m going to take a look at that at some point…shooting percentage goes up with the PP (you’ll note his two 18% seasons also coincide with his 10+ PP goals). So reducing his PP time last year may have had an effect. He won’t worry about PP minutes here, so I think he goes back to normal.
At least that’s what it looks like on the surface.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Right. I figure 25-35-60, give or take about 5.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
its not the past though is it?
even if he plays like the last year (current) he’s still an upgrade. People lose sight that in his down year he’s still better than 80% of our roster.
blueseatblogs.com
by Jurgennehls on Jul 28, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
4 and 625k makes me feel much better.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
we have had this debate before but prospal has a better chance to perform without gabby than EC does, so let’s go back to what worked when prospal was hurt.
Dubi-EC-Gabby
Frolov-Prospal-Cally
Aves-AA-MZA
Boog-Dru-Prust
?
isn't that what Avery's for?
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 28, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats a tad bold!
Not that I like the man, but do you really think Drury is going to be bumped to the 4th line?
I still don’t get this argument. At all.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I personally would love to do Rozie/Cally for him.
Of course, the funniest part about it is that I would still pair him with Frolov on the 2nd line, and leave the Dubi-EC-Gaborik combo alone.
That’s why I don’t understand the “Gaborik needs a #1 C thing.” If anything, it’s Frolov that will need a big time center
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Do not move Cally or Dubi
Tell you why. They will be absolute beasts with other teams,
Rangers FTW!
by BleedsRangerBlue on Jul 28, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
But if Sather is not done. He’s after a #1 Center. The only way that happens is if Rozi plus either Cally or Dubi goes.
No..I get how you get one. I don’t get why Gabby is in dire need of a center.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Also..it’s fun to say “Rozsival sucks” and figure he can replaced by any ol’ d-man..but it’s not really the case, especially when you’re talking about replacing him with a rookie.
We have two d-men that are ready for NHL time that didn’t get it last year, Sauer, and presumably McDonagh. The overstock of D-men is a long term thing, not a plug in for 2010-11 thing.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
but that is also why he is tradeable. he is a top-4 dman in most divisions in this league, just not really the atlantic. if you take into accout his 7 mil real money over two yrs, a 3.5 mil salary is very reasonable for a guy of his skill considering this years UFA dman signings. a team without cap issues, but real money issues, could certainly use him when he is part of the right package
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
dallas for ribeiro? saves them 3 mil bucks in real money, but same cap hit, also saves them an extra year down the line. im sure we would need to give up more than just rozi, but he has been rumored to be on the market.
as for our D. right now we have girardi, mdz, eminger, gilroy, mcdonagh, rozi, redden and hopefully soon staal for the season. drop out redden and rozi we still have 6 who should be ready with sauer probably the only one capable as a 7 right away.
ribiero scares me a little because of the season he had last yr. he would be an upgrade from what we have right now, but i dont think i would take the extra yr of cap hit for him. i really cant think of anyone who would makes us appreciably better whos team would be willing to take a rozi back (unless the likes of grachev, step, etc are included)
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I know he’s tradable..just saying that too often the hole he’ll leave behind is overlooked just because we have some D-prospects with high upsides, most of whom don’t happen to be NHL ready.
I’m not entirely sure that offense that you bring back is enough to offset that hole. I could be wrong though.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
well that depends entirely on the player you bring back… were we talking about a specific play there? lol i dont read hole threads very carefully
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Well…of the list of #1 centers that are semi-available, I think only Richards and Savard bring enough offense, without doing any serious math.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Cally-Gilroy enough to get Weiss? Dunno.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW..I’m not convinced Dubinsky isn’t Weiss, just earlier in his career.
Similar talent for outscoring against toughs, similar production in their early 20s…and in fact Weiss has been more reliant on the PP for his production. And Dubi’s a bigger dude, which means something to some people.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
i would say that weiss’ ability to stick at C and dubi’s inabilty to be a C, at least in the eyes of this staff, is what makes him more valuable than dubi at this point. i would still choose dubi because of youth, size and he is home grown though.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I would take them both really..r
I’m really just taking it back to the Dubi/Cally argument. I’d rather have two Dubis than swapping Dubi for another Dubi.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
i wouldnt swap dubi for dubi, but cally for another dubi who can stay at center and has taken the next step this one hasnt yet, yes i would do that.
i think i would add spezza to that list. he has a bunch of years left but is a possible 90 pt guy. for any of those guys, rozi cally a mid prospect and a #1 could get it done. savard would probably require less because of the cap mess that the bruins are in. i just dont like that much roster turn over right now
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
richards cost too much of the future and savard is intriguing cause of the low hit, but the concussions always worry me.
Marian Gaborik?
"""NEEDS""""" a #1 center?
No..it would be nice, but he doesn’t need #1 center to be good. He IS good. What he needs are linemates the other team has to give a crap about. Prospal was that last year for the most part, and Dubi if he gets better should be Prospalian.
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 28, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
why is it so vital that he has #1 center?
he put up career high in points last yr and over 40 goals- that is pretty much his max. he’s not going to get much better than that unless you pair him with crosby
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s a stretch to get a #1 center with Rozi and Cally. Rozi and Weiss even less likely. Cally is the bait.
didnt say rozi and cally for weiss, just weiss as a target if your making a deal.
cally, gilroy and a 2nd might do it.
obviously, but that doesnt mean another team wants him. we cant trade what we want or we would all deal redden, have to trade what we can reasonably move.
rozi has value though. 3.5 mil over the next two yrs is very resoanble for a top-4 defenseman (which he would be in some of the softer divisions). when you look at what teams were paying for defenseman this offseason, he fits in that payscale. when you add an asset like cally and a pick, that could be a very enticing deal for a team who has real money problems as opposed to cap problems.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Excellent points Joey. I agree on most. I hope he puts up 25-30, but still do not know if it is enough to make the playoffs.
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by Nick Montemagno on Jul 28, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions
i think other teams that were behind us improved more than us, so im not sold on us as a lock for the playoffs even with health.
obviously dubi, cally, aa, mdz all taking another step forward would make that a much higher likelihood, but have to assume regression on prospal as well.
i think ec as well. i love him for how he performed last yr but looking at his career, you cant bank on him producing the way he did towards the end of last yr.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
while...
you maybe can’t “bank on” EC producing the way he did toward the end of last year, i think he has a real good chance, mainly because the team is giving him that chance, a better chance than some teams have given him in the past . we will see what he’s made of this year. in any case, i’m rooting for him.
by Anders Griffen on Jul 28, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
well your assuming theyre going to give him the chance. they may yet trade for a #1 center and he gets pushed down or becomes the regular healthy scratch.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
they stayed relatively healthy last year, that was good enough for the 8th and a half seed.
I like the Frolov move, without a doubt. But the bottom line is that if they don’t get more production from guys like Callahan, Dubinsky, and Avery, and “Bond Villain” Prospal’s numbers don’t match or come very close to last year, then the Rangers will be the kids with their faces pressed up against the glass watching 8 other teams make the playoffs.
That’s not to say missing the playoffs is going to devastate me. I’m fully prepared for another 8th and half seed, or lower. As long as kids are developing, I’m ok with it. I expect progress this year in development, not necessarily in the standings.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Jul 28, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s not to say missing the playoffs is going to devastate me. I’m fully prepared for another 8th and half seed, or lower. As long as kids are developing, I’m ok with it. I expect progress this year in development, not necessarily in the standings.
Blasphemy!! Win Now!! Win Now!!!
Also..I agree with you 100%.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
well the missing the playoffs aspect i may disagree with. if competition was the same as last yr (whcih it isnt as most teams in atlantic have gotten better) i would expect that the progression of mdz, cally, dubi, aa and gilroy would be enough to push us over the edge and make us a playoff team. i would be very disappointed if their downgraded play was the reason for missing the postseason.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Carolina (health), tampa, atlanta (goaltending/trades) have all probably improved more than we have since we have same team + frolov. fishsticks probably stay behind us with the frolov move, but that depends on the steps bailey, tavares, okposo take this year. fla and toronto are probably the only 2 teams clearly worse right now while those ahead of us sans buffalo and montreal probably are all better than they were last year. making the playoffs will be no easy feat for us.
At the same time...
I don’t think Ottawa is the 5th best team in the conference, so they’ll probably come back. Montreal’s going into the season with Price (presumably) who isn’t exactly a bedrock yet. (and both teams were outscored last year, which doesn’t typically help you in the standings). Buffalo lost two of their best defenseman and got a career year from Miller, who will likely regress back at least a little bit. (he did lead the league in SH SV% last year @ .920, which isn’t sustainable).
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
i did say sans montreal and buffalo, lol.
ottawa added gonchar so their probable biggest weakness in the pp is much better now, but losing volchenkov hurts.
I obviously didn’t read the last sentence. Details, shmetails.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Money. The difference between the two isn’t large enough the extra $1-1.5 mil that MTL expected to have to pay.
Of course, apparently Price’s asking price is rivaling Halak’s contract, then it is subsequently a bit questionable.
More generally though, the worst thing you can do is overpay for small sample sizes, even if that sample size happens to be the playoffs.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
but they could have signed one before dealing the other. would have made their lives easier
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Once one signs, you signal that the other is the one you’re dealing, and it should hurt the return you get. Catch-22 and all that.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s why you get to be the GM, and I sit here and crunch numbers.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
He lost 6 of his last 9 and got absolutely bombed in 2 of the first 3 games against Washington. His heater didn’t really start until games 4-5-6 against Wash.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
eh. 2 of the loses in SO, 1 more in OT. 2 he gave up 2 goals and only the last 2 did he get “bombed” giving up 4. on the playoffs agree completely.
when i said he got them in i was thinking back to early march when they were considered dead with cammy hurt coming out of the olympic break and he won 6 straight decisions.
If you want these kids to develop, a taste of the playoffs imo is key. You can’t sit on the sideline in April year after year and expect that the youngsters are just going to be able to adjust to playoff hockey when we get the perfect storm in 3 years.
good point. and beyond the experience they would gain, its about the culture of the organization. believing you are a first class organization and a cup contender every year is an important mindset to have
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
which kids are these cause the only kids i could see being on the team that are new are mza and mcD. AA and MDZ could use the experience but the rest of the “kids” have been in the playoffs already. so before we worry about getting the kids to the playoffs we have to get a lot of them to the nhl.
Grachev Stepan MCD MDZ MZA Gilroy AA. If we’re writing off the present for the future. These guys ARE the future.
grach, step, werek, horak, mcwrath are parts of the future but they wont be here this year, so the playoffs this year isnt as important.
dont see gilroy as part of the future. mcD and MZA still have to make the team which i expect they will, but let’s get them the experience of being here before we worry about them needing playoff seasoning.
because Gilroy is too small, not skilled enough? I think he had flashes of brilliance in his shortened first season. Having two home-grown offensive minded D-men would be quite an asset.
Because he’s 26 years old and should already be in his prime, so he’s likely to get passed by.
It’s nothing specifically against Gilroy..but the defenseman behind them mostly have bigger upsides. If you figure Staal-Girardi-MDZ will stick…you have McD and McI who are the front runners, and then Klassen, Kundratek, Gilroy, Valentenko, Pashnin, plus whoever I’m forgetting this instant.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
what is this new obsession with calling guys home-grown? gilroy was never in our system to be grown. he was in college at BU. MZA was in the swedish league, neither drafted or developed by us. girardi was grown, staal was grown, dubi, cally those guys.
He has a history of being clutch in big games(college). Hobey Baker winner and 3 time all american after barely making the BU club. I think Gilroy has the intangibles you can’t measure in your typical statistical analysis. I would not count him out. If he winds up on another team, he could wind up being an American Gonchar.
+1 health is a key issue.
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by Jurgennehls on Jul 28, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Love the move
We needed secondary scoring, & got it short term, at a great price. I agree with the comments above that mentioned frolov & gabby should be separated at ES. EC dubs and gabby showed great chemistry together last year so let’s give them a chance to pick up where they left off. Let Vinny center frolov and cally to start the year, & if mza miraculously adjusts instantly(although unlikely), then give him the chance for 2nd line minutes.
by Conway on Jul 28, 2010 11:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Gabby and Frolov
It seems that these 2 would be a good combination. I haven’t seen Frolov play much but it sounds like he creates traffic in front of the net and scores off rebounds. Gabby likes to score from the 15-20 feet out with his wrist shot. Sounds like they will create space for each other because of their style of play. Have to see how it happens on the ice but they should complement each other.
Good move
Like everyone else has said there is no downside to this move, he is the second scoring threat we lacked last season and makes our power play legit now.. He is big too which is something the team lacked last season
On the top center topic
We have 5 second line centers which in my book is good enough for our upcoming year. Drury, dubinsky, prospal, christensen, and anisimov all CAN play with gabby at different points of the year. We don’t NEED a first line center, our talent this year is going to be great.
by louielounz1 on Jul 28, 2010 1:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
in other news:
Andy Strickland says that Wheeler can expect to receive an award of $2.1 to $2.4 million
if the bruins walked away from that i would definitely take him for 2 mil.
they are at the limit right now with only 20 guys signed. seguin’s cap hit when they sign him will be about 3.5 mil as well.
can't see them walking away from wheeler
i’ve read neely LOVES him, if they can find a sucker team to take thomas off their hands they’d be able to keep him
This from a man who thinks the plural of goose is sheep.
problem is thomas is an over 35 deal and goalies right now arent being valued at 5 mil a pop. even taking thomas off the books though wont solve the full problem. seguin 3.5 + wheeler say 2.2 + new backup goalie 750K =6.4 in costs.
That’s where trading Savard comes in.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
except they dont seem to be willing to take the 50 or 75 cents on the dollar necessary to do that. more likely it would be ryder to the minors?
Unless they can trade him for 50cents on the dollar to someone like Colorado.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
the islanders still need to get to the cap floor
and they still have dipietro on the team, so they could use a 35+ goaltender as an insurance policy
wait, they already have roloson?
roloson + thomas > dipietro
This from a man who thinks the plural of goose is sheep.
but rollie is a ufa after this season
and dipietro is….well…..slightly brittle
This from a man who thinks the plural of goose is sheep.
isles should be looking to someone like vancouver to get a bieksa as they need to shed a salary and the isles could use another vet D
times like this i wish milbury was still running that team
This from a man who thinks the plural of goose is sheep.
Yeah, I know. I’m saying to trade to one of the floor teams who will take on a 1-year deal fo nothing.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup..I should’ve clarified.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
i believe sturm is also going to start the season LTIR which means so they can subtract his cap hit until at least the middle of the season. not a complete solution but it buys them some time
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
well if the bruins walk away from that he’s a UFA and can seek more money right?
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do people keep saying Savard has a concussion history? Hasn’t he only suffered one? From that terrible hit last year, I don’t ever remember him having others in the past.
That was his 4th, but first in about 6 years.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=204
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
and he’s not exactly a spring chicken. he’s 33 yrs old and has a lot of mileage
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
ahhhh yes so what youre saying is he fits right in with the youth movement right?
by BronxBeliever on Jul 28, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't notice but
Does anyone know what the lines might look like? Off. and Def.? For example, is Drury going to stay on the second line? Where is Avery going to go, on a line with AA?
Basically write Gaborik in for 1RW. Put all other names in a hat, pull out until you have 11 players. You have as much chance of being correct as anyone else here does.
Everyone has theories, some of them quite viable, but until camp is over, it’s really tough to tell, specifically because nobody really knows what to do with Zuccarello-Aasen, or even which wing he’ll play. Most people put him on the RW, but there are sites out there who list him on the left, which means it’s possible he could be on any of the Rangers lines, plus a few of the Hartford ones.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
If Grach didn’t produce with that line…I’d be seriously concerned.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
You forgot...
Play 3 games.
Put names back in hat.
Shake.
Pull out 11 names.
Lather
Rinse
Repeat
ad…nauseam…
like these what are the lines going to look like questions… ;-) :-D
Sather’s not done dealing. At least one more deal to go (besides signing Staalsie)
But for those who love to argue this stuff – keep havin’ fun !!
Think a forward gets dealt?
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Gut says it’s a multi-player deal – too many 3rd line forwards means 2 or more of them plus too many journeymen defenders means 1 or 2 of them.
Hey – if I end up being right about Redden, maybe I’ll start a website with a rating system.
;-)
Who’s a journeyman defender besides Rozsival, Eminger, and Redden? Everyone else is too young to have journeyed.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 28, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Expectations
If all of our players play how they’re expected to, then we should make the playoffs. Gabby should have 35+ which is solid, now everyone else pretty much has the talent to do what they’re expected, but there is also the flukey chance(which happens all the time with us) that they will underachieve. Dubi should get 20, Cally should get 20, Prospal should get 20, Frolov should get 25, EC should get 15-20, AA should get 15, MZA hopefully gets 15, Avery should get 15, and assuming Drury gets the 3rd/4th line center role, hopefully he gets at least 15. Now of course these aren’t predictions or anything, this is just what should be expected of these players. And I think Stepan, Grachev, and Weise should stay in Hartford.
Dubinsky – Christensen – Gaborik
Frolov – Prospal – Callahan
Avery – Anisimov – Zuccarello-Aasen
Boogaard – Drury – Prust
My predictions. If MZA for some reason doesn’t make the team come camp, move Prust up to the third line and pencil in a farm player unless we play Boyle, then Drury would have fourth line LW and Boogaard would be scratched.
Whats the opinion on our defense pairings?
Staal and Giradi are the only ones I’m sure about.I’d really like to see Gilroy have a chance to turn it on,and MDZ paired with a big ole stay at homer so he can be more creative.Eminger is pretty much in yeah? McDonagh? I dunno.
Si Vis Pacum Parabellum
Who the hell is MZA?
And why is everybody making him a 2-3 liner? The guy is short, unproven and is from NORWAY for God sackes!
He wasn’t signed to be a 4th liner, and he shares a position with Gaborik. That leaves 2RW and 3RW as his slots. If he makes the team (and it is an if), that’s where he’ll be slotted, so that’s where people who think he can make the roster are slotting him. Not everyone has him there.
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