Rangers Analysis: Is Ilya Kovalchuk Worth What He Would Cost?
by Joe Fortunato on Aug 13, 2010 6:01 AM EDT
in New York Rangers Analysis
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So he's back. Ilya Kovalchk is once again the man of the hour (week? Month? Year?), and on the free agent list again. His 17-year $102 million contract was reject by the NHL, and that decision was upheld by Richard Bolch in the arbitration hearing. So one again we sit and speculate and Kovalchuk gives us the run around.
Since Kovalchuk is once again the topic of NHL conversation, it's only natural to speculate about where he will end up. I have even seen some of you advocate trying to get him to come here, at the expense of guys like Evgeny Grachev. My question is this: why would you sacrifice youth for Kovalchuk?
Kovalchuk is a very attractive piece to add to any puzzle, but that's not what the point of this post is. The point of this post is: is Kovalchuk worth what the Rangers would have to give up in order to get him? And the answer to that question is a resounding no.
The Rangers have made it very clear that they want to integrate youth into this team as fast as possible. All indications are that we will see an injection on defense, and possibly even two injections of youth on offense. The Rangers went out and got Russian sniper Alexander Frolov for a bargain, in order to help alleviate the scoring pressure from Marian Gaborik.
Glen Sather made a move for Steve Eminger, a guy who might not only compete for a spot, but who will be able to give the younger defensemen days off when needed. Mats Zucarello-Assen looks like a candidate for a spot on the team, as does Dale Weise and Dane Byers.
Now, before I go further let me explain something. My argument as to why the Rangers don't need Kovalchuk anymore is not because he would be taking a spot away from a kid. If the Rangers had any kids who were even remotely close to as talented as Kovalchuk right now, they would already be skating on Garden ice.
What my argument is, is that the Rangers don't need to sacrifice their youth in cap saving packages. To me, trading your top prospect in Grachev along with Redden to remove his cap hit in order to sign Kovalchuk is counterproductive. And BuckarooClub, this doesn't have anything to do with your fanpost per se, you just used Grachev as an example so I will as well.
In fact there has been a huge decrease in Grachev's "approval rating" with Rangers nation, after Grachev had a rough season adjusting to professional hockey. Take it from me guys, give him time, he is a special player, and will be a star on Broadway. You don't want to lose a guy like that in order to erase a mistake. Especially since trading Grachev would be a bigger mistake within itself.
Kovalchuk is one of those rare NHL specimens, who can literally score from anywhere on the ice. His true shooting percentage is through the roof, and his numbers back up his offensive skill every time he touches the puck. But Kovalchuk is like a really sexy looking car in a used dealer lot. You're going to have to overpay to get it, and the salesman probably isn't telling you the whole truth. Like the fact that the car only runs on premium gas, or that it only gets 10 miles to the gallon highway.
Kovalchuk could easily come to the New York Rangers and score 50 goals this year. He will also drive Rangers fans mad with his complete lack of defensive play.
His off the ice issues are also problematic. He continues to prove time and time again that it is all about the money. He rejected the New Jersey Devils 7-year $60 million contract offer, and then brought that figure back to the Los Angeles Kings to match. When they offered him a 12-year $80 million dollar contract, he balked again, wanting to be a million dollar man.
His camp brilliantly utilizes the threat of the KHL potentially luring him away, even though it appears unlikely that he would actually leave the NHL. He lets the 3-year $45 million KHL offer hang over his head during negotiations, giving puppy eyes to teams and making it seem like he is doing them a favor by only asking for $10 million a year.
Devils fans will tell you that he isn't all about the money, but it's quite clear that the money is a huge part of this. Supposedly the second that arbitrator Richard Bolch ruled in favor of the NHL, Lou Lamoriello went back to the drawing board to re-sign Kovalchuk. If Kovalchuk really wanted to be a Devil he would have made this happen already. But there is no ripple on the pond as of yet, because Lamoriello won't make him a "100 million dollar man" if he has to take the appropriate cap hit.
Why would you want a guy like that on this team? Why would you sacrifice one of the brightest lights in the future for a guy like that? Trust me, the Rangers don't need him, but more importantly he doesn't need the Rangers. He will get his $100 million somewhere else, he doesn't need to extract it from Sather.
Thoughts guys?
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quite simply no thanks.
Im more than happy to take our lumps for another year and integrate Kreider, Grachev, Stepan, MZA etc.
I wrote an article on Kreider on blueseatblogs today. Its guys like Kreider and Grachev that will help this franchise become a force not another cap anchor, no matter how talented.
blueseatblogs.com
Couldn't agree more Joe
I’d much rather Grachev and Stepan create chemistry down in HFD.
Gordie Clark has drafted well over the past few years, we need to stay the course, develop our youth, and avoid the high paid mercs. If we weren’t in such dire cap straits and could get him without giving up anything but $, then I’d be willing to try. But we need to stop compounding our mistakes with more huge contracts. I like that Sather has only done 1-2 year deals this offseason.
Let him go to the KHL
I just wish he would sign a valid contract already. As I’ve said before, the chances are exceptionally slim that all of “the prospects” will be playing on the Rangers during their primes if they pan out because of the salary cap and they will be RFAs and UFAs at about the same time. The problem with him is the cost. You’d have to give up one or two prospects to sign him now if he fit the team’s cap number. SInce that won’t happen, maybe he can rent an aprtment with Revis in Rutherford for the winter.
by It may HAVE to Last a Lifetime on Aug 13, 2010 9:45 AM EDT reply actions
In regards to what you said about the prospects playing at the same time, that is yet another reason why you wouldn’t sign Kovalchuk. Sather will need the extra cap space to re-sign them all so they stick around, otherwise every summer he will be going through what he is with Marc Staal right now.
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by Nick Montemagno on Aug 13, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Sather (or whoever his replacement is) will have to go through a Staal negotiation every year. It’s inevitable as is the fact that all of the prospects will not be resigned. [Take a look at Chicago.] If they all turn out to be as good as Staal, they all can’t be signed. If any are better then Staal, then less can be resigned. Kovalchuck isn’t worth the money or the years on the cap. My point is holding on to prospects is not the reason you don’t go after him.
by It may HAVE to Last a Lifetime on Aug 13, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno why it'd be at the expense of guys like Grachev
I think Kovy helps guys like Grachev and Stepan. Imagine a like of those 2 and Kovy? Or maybe those 2 on the top line with Gaborik and a 2nd line of Krieder AA and Kovy?
I don’t think its gonna happen, but if it does I’d welcome it. By 2012 all these guys should be at worst knocking on the door, why not have an infusion of young talent around 2 talented scorers like Gaborik and Kovalchuck?
That was my argument
but some people think that we need to remove some salary at the expense of youth. It’s been a constant thought through this off season, it just hit a new level with Kovalchuk
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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 13, 2010 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd welcome him here as well
But what i don’t understand at the expense of youth part? If he comes here he’s Essiently going to take one spot. It doesn’t mean we have to remove anyone maybe it just means no mza this year or sonthing along those lines. I would think it would come at the expense of vets. May even the expense of cally or duby much rather I be duby. I mean here’s the thing we don’t know what any of our prospects will be. So signing him couldn’t be all that bad because he still young and established goal scorer, really can’t go wrong with signing a threat like himself. I do say tho if we did sign him either duby or cally would need to be gone as well as Avery within the next two years. Avery I know his contract expires so dot think I forgot, but We will Def need room for prospects in two years so if nobody was moved or left the yes I see it coming at the expense of prospects. But now it’s jus at the expense of mza prospal maybe even Avery at the moment but prospects, ehh he’s really not hurting anyone but our cap but that will be solved in a year or two when reddens down rosies traded n drury gone.
by klh2009 on Aug 13, 2010 3:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No
When I say “at the expense of the youth” I mean trading a guy like Grachev in order to remove salary. Like I said in the story, if any prospects were as good as Kovalchuk they would be here already
Blueshirt Banter: Covering the New York Rangers the only NHL team with three home arenas.
"We can trade Lisin for a gun, then hold it to Drury’s head and make him waive the no-movement clause" - XLII
by Joe Fortunato on Aug 13, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
we all assume that our prospects will be great we dont know that .but they still need a top player to play with hes 27 and why would we have to give up prospects for him and if it was to dump salary 1 prospect and say rozi then why would it not be worth it for a 27 year old sniper and still have our youth only problem i have is the long contract and the 10 mil a year
Right now there are only three players on the team who can reliably play defense against good opponents: Staal, Girardi and Rozsival. If we lost Rozsival, the drop in talent from the back line would be great, offsetting any gains from Kovalchuk’s offense
On top of that, rosi will get a much higher return next offseason when he only has 3 mil remaining on his contract. The UFA class is also deeper next offseason, and while theyre might not be anyone with the offensive skill of kovi, a team will probably be able to get a better talent-contract deal than picking off the only big fish this year. Let McD grow this year (in either hartford of ny) and then he can replace rosi’s defense skill in 2011, allowing us to comfortably use the 5 mil cap hit we trade away on a more friendly return- all while not loosing any prospects.
NYTRUEBLUE: we already have the elite player that the young guys are going to play with, and he is also 27 yrs old right now… he wears #10 for us
by BronxBeliever on Aug 13, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
To the Writers of this Blog?
My question is, is it possible, for the Management and or owners of a franchise, to gather the young prospects together in the locker room and say hey fellas, listen….We have a group of serious talent here and we want to build a Dynasty but we are going to need all of you to buy in, except smaller contracts of equal value to keep this team together, under the cap in order to win and keep winning. OR is it too much ego and greed from the players to except something like that in order to stay together. A true TEAM concept and philosophy. Anyway, my question is can or could this happen and if so why not?
It’s not a bad idea. Not sure if it has ever been done before but when they are that young and they hears the words “dynasty” and “championship” and “contender” maybe they would buy into it. Good thinking!
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by Nick Montemagno on Aug 13, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
And the minute the team could get something better, they wouldn’t hesitate to trade you. Sports is a business, plain and simple. Players would be complete idiots to fall for something like that.
Yeah but with young players you can't really fault them for wanting money
they have a short earning window which could be rapidly shut with a serious injury.
Thats why you see older players doing this who have already made their money.
Since the face been revealed the game got real
youth!
I’m a season ticket holder and am ok seeing us be middle of the pack for a few years(hopefully not many more) as long as we build the right way- I think the rangers have done a decent job of this the last 2 years. ARISTH, we’ll have a very young d corps, and some guys who can light the lamp up front. Not to mention an all world goalkeeper. I think we’ve got nothing but improvement ahead. Sather might make mistakes but he’s also pretty good at getting rid of them.
I’m praying he goes to NJ. I think he’ll be a big disappointment for them, and tie up their finances for years. It will also add even more juice to the NYR-NJ rivalry, with Avery, etc.
With Gaborik, Lundqvist, and a renovated arena on the way, I don’t think we are going to see a complete youth movement….we’ll probably fill a few spots with youth when we can, but a complete rebuild will not happen…the next few years are pivotal for the organization to start winning and making back some money they spent on this renovation…
I think a few guys like Kreider, Stepan, possibly McDonagh make the jump within the next 2 seasons…maybe Grachev…other than that, I just don’t know…
I understand the whole leave Kovy alone thing….I don’t think he’s worth it because of the money and the years, not because of saving a roster spot for guys like Weise or Byers, who are fringe NHL players
http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/
I'm good with or without him...
But with all the hype about the Ranger kids (Stepan, Krieder, Grachev), I think this is one time I might pass. Personally, I’d like to see if Stepan can make it up here. From all accounts, he’s very good on faceoffs, and has something of a scorer’s touch.
Keep a few million in the “company” wallet, and use it on Staal. Kovy can go enjoy L.A.
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kovalchuk
There is simply no way he could fit under the Rangers cap so the entire discussion is a waste of time
by stan from bayside on Aug 13, 2010 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
I agree Joe. No reason to damage our future just to take on Ilya Kovalchuk. Quite honestly, and I know it has been mentioned here on the site quite often, I think Gaborik is a much better all around player anyway. Let the prospects mature and make the jump to the NHL. See where that gets us and then make fill-in signings from there.
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by Nick Montemagno on Aug 13, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
First I would like to point out that prospects are only prospects, and had the Rangers had the cap room and Kovalchuk was willing to play for a reasonable cap hit and the rangers did not have the burden or Drury, Rozsival, Redden, ect… It would be an easy decision to trade a Grachev… Grachev may have a great ceiling, but there is one thing that he is not, and that is a proven NHL player… This has nothing to do with his good or bad seasons in the past, but when an NHL player is a good fit in his prime especially one with such talent as a Kovalchuk, moving a prospect for a player like that is simply an easy thing to do… Grachev could very well turn into the next Pavel Brendl…
In our situation, there is no reason to make a move for Kovalchuk even if he takes a reduced salary because he is one dimensional, and the rangers are not contenders at the moment, which is wasting his prime years, and because of money issues, there is no reason to trade our prospects whom have a high ceiling and cost far less at this point in time…
Rangers minus our outrageous contracts: Trade a top prospect to move a contract and sign Kovalchuk
Rangers non-contenders with outrageous contracts that expire soon: Keep prospects…
Many people overvalue prospects… There was a time where Manny Ramirez was offer for Lastings Milledge, also a time where Barry Zito was offer for Milledge, the Mets have neither players and Milledge is mostly a bust… Adversely Mets in a contention spot, traded Scott Kazmir our most coveted prospect at the time, to the Rays for Victor Zambrano (whom at the time was having a good year) While Zambrano did not pan out for the mets, Kazmir has bounced aorund MLB with consistent arm injuries… my point is, you’ll never know what a prospect will be thats why given the position to trade a prospect for a top tier player in their prime during a contention scenario (given the player is more than a rental) you make the trade…
by Clalicata17 on Aug 13, 2010 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
when talking about prospects and trading them
one should leave the Mets out of the argument.
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 13, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
regardless of the team we are talking about, prospects are prospective players that COULD be, not players that ARE…. Kovalchuk IS a premier sniper, grachev COULD be a premier player… there are no certainties when you are talking prospects…
Had the rangers been in a position to contend for a cup, and trading grachev with redden in order to get the final piece to the puzzle was in the cards, I would make the flip immediately… Grachev while promising is no certainty… Kovalchuk has proven over time that he is for real…
However, the rangers are not in the position to win the cup this season, and are caught between a rock and a hard place with our cap situation, this dictates the rangers either need to begin a rebuilding-like process, or clean house and sign a bunch of new players, and the latter has not worked out to well and we will rebuild making prospects essential…
I personally think the Rangers won’t get involved for Kovy….but…….
can we get off saying one particular prospect is not worth getting Kovalchuk? Because in reality if we could get Kovalchuk for Redden and Grachev, we’d be stupid not to. If Grachev is being referred to as the best, most talented offensive prospect in our system, then we have problems because this guy has hardly lit up the league. Say whatever negative you want about Kovi, the bottom line is you instantly add at least 45 goals a season for the forseeable future and with Stephan, Krieder, Grachev…as well as Calli, Dubi…..whoever may have to go……you don’t even come close. This guy would instantly make us better and Redden would be gone or Rozi or both. Thats a win to me. I don’t mind paying a player alot of money provided he does live up to expectations and only Gabby and Hank do that on this team……You know what you are getting in Kovalchuk….any prospect is a questionmark. If any of them was just ripping it up or looked like tavares did before he was drafted, I’d actually say….whoa…hold on now…but thats clearly not the case here.
So to point out what joe proposed which was Grachev(unproven at the NHL level) and Redden(deadwood with an albatross contract) moved to make cap for Kovalchuk who is a proven 40 to 45 goal scorrer(maybe 10 guys in the NHL do that every season…..it really looks like a no brainer. And from Dolans perspective, would he rather pay Redden 6.5 mil. to play in the AHL or use that money for a legit player in the NHL? Sather must be thinking that too…..now, the realism of actually finding a suitor for Redded or Rozi and Grachev is another story outside the lines of said reality.
and good point about Amonte…add to that Weight as well…..I would have killed for them post cup years. I can’t think of any prospect in the Rangers system who I would not have moved for Kovi other than Leetch. Not everyone blossoms into Hank and we’ve surely seen that. Jessiman, Brendl, Lundmark, Malhotra etc.
That's not my argument
My argument is that do you really want a guy like Kovlachuk on the team, with a 10 year 75 million dollar contract at best?
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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 13, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe this was the question quoted directly from your article…..
Why would you want a guy like that on this team? Why would you sacrifice one of the brightest lights in the future for a guy like that? Your article made its points based on not trading young assets, particularly Grachev, for Kovy.
I would prefer not to give him a 10 yr deal. I honestly think he would take a 5yr deal 30 to 35million in the NHL and then he will be KHL bound and I do think the Rangers are capable of swinging an attractive but not crippling offer to satisfy both he and them. Realistically it won’t happen but if I was the GM I’d certainly make an attempt, which, I am confident Sather has or is.
Regarding the youth movement or the concern that Kovy takes up a roster spot and prevents a younger player from coming up……we have a team full of underacheievers who could be replaced in lieu of a guy who can actually score 45 goals. That concern is ridiculous if you think about it……..oh no a 45 goal / 100+pt scorer will prevent Krieder (a question mark) from making the team in 2013…….be realistic, there will be plenty of guys who will fail to put up 30 pts that can be released or not re signed…..making an issue of Kovalchuk being dead weight…..is just ponderous.
well my point was that
Why would you want to trade away a bright young star for a guy who needs to be signed for 10+ years at 8 or 9 million a year.
Blueshirt Banter: Covering the New York Rangers the only NHL team with three home arenas.
"We can trade Lisin for a gun, then hold it to Drury’s head and make him waive the no-movement clause" - XLII
by Joe Fortunato on Aug 14, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Grachev is yet to be a star of any form… his future is bright, but he is not a star… at least not in the NHL where stardom matters
Not at the NHL level yet
The Rangers have played this “trade youth for proven vets” before, and it never works. Why not protect the youth? The kid is 19, let’s not give up on him yet
Blueshirt Banter: Covering the New York Rangers the only NHL team with three home arenas.
"We can trade Lisin for a gun, then hold it to Drury’s head and make him waive the no-movement clause" - XLII
by Joe Fortunato on Aug 14, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I think many of you are misinterpreting the “youth argument”. No one is saying “Grachev is/will be better than Kovi”. And everyone here knows that our prospects are all question marks, so stop telling us like it’s something new. If it were as simple as trading a ‘Grachev’ for Kovi, then we’d all do it. But it isn’t as simple as that, and we’re using the ‘youth argument’ as one piece of why it’s not smart to go after Kovi.
obviously… i said in my statement that had we not being in the middle of a rebuilding process, the move for kovi is an easy decision… but with our cap issues and our distance from a cup contending time, the kovi moves makes no sense, and we have no choice due to that to go with our prospects, one because they are cheaper, and 2 because kovi doesn’t make us a cup winner this year… or next year…
The thing is, you would have to trade a LOT more than just one high-level prospect to rid yourself of an awful contract like Redden. You’d have to throw in a 2nd round pick, and possibly a mid-level prospect, and still take on a bit of salary in return.
I think you make deals that are pertinent at the time…….there is always another deal to come along where you might acquire that pick back. Didn’t we not have a 2nd or maybe a 3rd this draft? We traded it for a guy that was much less skilled than Kovalchuk so in my eyes this is not a concern. For a guy like Kovy……..Grachev and a second…..with rozi redden whomever…I still do not think this is a high price to pay…….imagine it was an offer sheet situation where we had to forfeit three 1sts? I might complain about that.
True Joe
I think Kovy is even worth the devils time and money which is why I love that they gave so much to get him and in the process are going to lose parise.
I just can’t wait for the devs to lose Zach to us in FA one day. Let’s just hope it won’t be for gomez money.
As for the Grachev talk I hope he finds his game this year because that 30 points (<— so unsure about that number) was not impressive in the ahl. I mean PA was making him look bad. Hey this is why they play and with all these prospects I wish they had some Hartford hockey on tv.
by louielounz1 on Aug 14, 2010 2:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Is Kovy worth the Cost?
I’m brand new here. Just signed up. 52 yrs. old & a lifelong Ranger Fan. Saw my 1st game in the New Garden’s inaugural season. Played competitively through college and beyond. Former Season Ticket Holder before moving away to the Hockey Wasteland of N.C. Was a Charlotte Checkers Season subscriber also. Follow the farmhands as closely as the big club.
In reading all of these posts, I see the elements of truth in every said here. For my 2 pennies, this idea or hope of him coming is D.O.A. , regardless of the relative value of ourprospects. Its a nice outside. Lets all get the F.O. our machines here and give this a Rest!
by Johnny from Jersey on Aug 14, 2010 1:20 PM EDT reply actions
Well welcome to the Banter!
Blueshirt Banter: Covering the New York Rangers the only NHL team with three home arenas.
"We can trade Lisin for a gun, then hold it to Drury’s head and make him waive the no-movement clause" - XLII
by Joe Fortunato on Aug 14, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Same as Above
Sorry for my linguistic errors and omissions in the post above. My GF is sending me racy things, as I speak. She’ll have no shot at distracting me once the season starts!
by Johnny from Jersey on Aug 14, 2010 1:28 PM EDT reply actions
My best friend is a Devil's fan
Not sure how it works. Anyway, to my point.
When the Devs got Kovalchuk, my friend was stoked. After a couple weeks, he was irate. His reasoning?
“Kovalchuk plays with complete disregard for the defensive zone. He absolutely doesn’t care.”
I know i shouldn’t use other people’s possibly mislead opinions as a guideline for my own opinion, but the fact that my friend was so disappointed with Kovalchuk’s effort, along with his 75 career +/, my gut says he isnt worth more than half of what he’s asking for.
He is asking for one of the biggest contracts in NHL’s history, and frankly, he seems a bit self-righteous to say the least.
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