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Expectations Surrounding Young Defenseman

The Rangers system is currently overloaded with defensemen expected to make some type of impact over the coming years.  The movement began a couple of years ago when Marc Staal cracked the lineup as a 21 year old, continued last year with 19 year old Michael Del Zotto, and is expected to continue with the signing of Ryan McDonagh this year.  What is not known is how much impact this type of youth can have on your team.   Inspired by this look at young forwards entering the league, I'll break down the young defensemen.

With advanced statistic data only three years old, we'll focus on that era.  Since 2007-08, there have been 40 players and 58 player-seasons where a defenseman has logged at least 40 games at an age of 22 or younger (cutoff date is Feb 1st.)   Here's the list of those players:

Age 18 - Zach Bogosian

Age 19 - Erik Johnson, Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn, Dmitri Kulikov, Erik Karlsson, Michael Del Zotto, Tyler Myers, Victor Hedman, Zach Bogosian

Age 20 - Kris Letang, Kris Russell, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn

Age 21 - Alexander Edler, Anton Stralman, Cam Barker, Jack Johnson, Jeff Schultz, Keith Yandle, Ladislav Smid, Marc Staal, Matt Niskanen, Brian Lee, Kris Letang, Kris Russell, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Erik Johnson, Jason Demers

Age 22 - Andrej Meszaros, Braydon Coburn, Brent Burns, Brent Seabrook, Dion Phaneuf, Mike Green, Shea Weber, Alexander Edler, Andrej Sekera, Boris Valabik, Brett Festerling, Cam Barker, Chris Butler, Jack Johnson, Jeff Schultz, Keith Yandle, Ladislav Smid, Marc Staal, Matt Niskanen, Roman Polak, Cody Franson, Kris Letang, Kris Russell, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Ryan Parent, Ryan Wilson, Taylor Chorney

More after this...

Star-divide

For continuity with the original article, we'll look at the break down of each number based on age. Rather than picking on Bogosian, whose numbers don't exactly shine brightly, I'll combine his year with the 19 year olds. Here's what the data looks like:

Age  Corsi/60  Rel Corsi  GFON/60  GAON/60  GDIFF/60  QC Rk  QT Rk
18-19 -1.639 0.846 2.539 2.777 -0.237 3.600 4.074
20 2.489 0.357 2.143 2.132 0.011 4.086 4.457
21 1.320 0.206 2.413 2.430 -0.016 3.909 3.656
22 1.374 0.824 2.456 2.395 0.061 3.740 3.458

For those unfamilar, Corsi is the number of shots minus the number of shots against while a player is on the ice.  It includes all shots directed on net, missed nets, and blocked shots.  /60 indicates the number distributed evenly for every 60 minutes of even strength ice time the player faces.  QC and QT values are based on the Corsi QC/QT numbers, and the ranks here are based on 6 defenseman.  In these cases, the numbers indicate mostly 2nd pair levels for both values.

Looking at the stats, the youngest of this group were given the hardest comp on average, the 2nd hardest teammates, yet relative to their team, they're pushing the puck the best.  Intuitively this would seem correct, the defensemen capable of cracking a lineup at such a young age bring offense, first and foremost.  Their defense is usually the raw part of their games, and the numbers bare that out.  They have the worst GAON/60 and Corsi/60 rates among the lot.  From there you start to see the progression one expects, as the defenseman age, they get harder competition and harder teammates, and it becomes harder for them to push the play.  Of note, there are only 5 seasons to go on, so data tthere is likely higher than normal as a result.

Here's the look for just rookie seasons in the NHL at those ages:

Age  Corsi/60  Rel Corsi  GFON/60  GAON/60  GDIFF/60  QC Rk  QT Rk
18-19 -1.387 1.184 2.559 2.743 -0.184 3.667 3.971
20 1.685 0.802 1.664 2.025 -0.361 4.571 4.762
21 -0.818 -1.926 2.320 2.429 -0.109 3.927 3.648
22 0.972 0.538 2.401 2.314 0.087 3.538 3.359

Similar patterns emerge here.  At this point it's worth noting one special season that seriously weighs down the 21 year old numbers.  Jack Johnson posted an impossibly bad -436 Corsi in his first year in L.A.  Only two players come within 250 of that number (Ryan Parent @ -347, Taylor Chorney @ -269).   Here is what the 21 year olds look like without JJ's atrocity:

Age  Corsi/60  Rel Corsi  GFON/60  GAON/60  GDIFF/60  QC Rk  QT Rk
21 -0.818 -1.926 2.320 2.429 -0.109 3.927 3.648
21 w/o JJ 2.129 0.821 2.338 2.324 0.014 4.170 3.563

Clearly, the numbers make more sense when you remove that season.  Finally, here's the scatterplot of the defenseman, showing their QC when compared to their Corsi rate (click to enlarge):

Corsidmenchart_medium

The x-axis here is the Corsi/60, the Y-axis is the QC.  Players in the right half outshoot their competition, and in the top half are playing competition that outshoots their competition.  Thus, the top right quadrant is the group that is outplaying the better competition in the NHL, and bottom left is the group that was thrown to the kittens, and got mauled anyway.   Marc Staal and M.E. Vlasic?  Quite good.  Ryan Parent and Ryan Wilson?  Not so much.  As for Jack Johnson, well, at least he seems to have an excuse for his annihilation.

What this all does tell us is that young defenseman are capable of coming into the league and making an impact, as long as they're coming in on their terms.  When you are forced into the situation as Edmonton, Colorado, and Phoenix have been over the last couple of years, however, the results can be troubling.

stats credit to behindthenet.ca

 

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Excellent analysis

I have no qualms with Staal asking for a decent chunk of chane provided that his deal takes care of a couple years of UFA status. And assuming his deal pushes Redden to HFD all the better.

I’ve loved his instincts from day 1 and he is their most vital blueliner for this season and next while McD develops and even Del Zotto rounds out his game a little bit.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 17, 2010 8:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Er...

Chunk of change not chane.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 17, 2010 8:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I have a feeling that Sather under values Staal. I don’t think he fully realized what type of a player Staal is. He was comparing him to Girardi based on stats (points)….you can’t use just that!! Ther is so much more to Staal and I bet that Sather doesnt even have a clue that stats just presented by Smurf even exist. If he knew about those stats and understood them it would help him to appreciate what Staal brings.

by MattPwrcf1 on Aug 17, 2010 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

We have a GM...

Who thinks it’s great to go around sucking on a cigar 95% of the time. Perhaps that’s an example of how abreast of the times he is.

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great piece

I don’t suppose the sample size is anywhere near relevant yet to treat players as data series to check for season-to-season trends by individual?

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Great post RangerSmurf. Like I’ve said, I don’t mind giving Staal what he is asking for because players like him, I believe, are more and more rare now-a-days. He is worth 4-5 million and I believe Glen Sather should be willing to give him that.

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by Nick Montemagno on Aug 17, 2010 11:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Plus, I feel that Staal meets many of the expectations you mention above for a 23-year-old. And he is still growing as a player which is great.

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by Nick Montemagno on Aug 17, 2010 11:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

How many years of RFA does Staal have left?

Is $4mn +/- a few hundred K enough to average out his remaining RFA years and his first couple of years of UFA…maybe average it out to a small hometown discount?

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 17, 2010 11:23 AM EDT reply actions  

I think he’s got 4 years until he’s an RFA, and he can start arbitration in 2 years.

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by Scratch and Snif on Aug 17, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

He meant until UFA

by Conway on Aug 17, 2010 12:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

ya my bad a UFA

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by Scratch and Snif on Aug 18, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Holy shit, I am lost. Hockey is passing me by with these stats

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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Aug 17, 2010 11:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Ha! It's not that bad Jim.

It’s just goals and shots. It’s just micro-analyzed to figure out who is producing them and who they’re doing it against.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

So

Right bottom is guys that faced good quality of competition, and didn’t do so hot.

And Left top, is guys that faced the kittens and mauled them?

Right?

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 17, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Flip it.

QC goes top to bottom. The tough competition is up top.
Corsi rates go left to right, rightmost have the highest Corsi rates.

Jack Johnson 09 (top left) had top competition and got destroyed by it
Kris Russell (bottom right) had really weak competition and is destroying it.
Staal 09 (top right) had top competition and destroyed it
Ryan Wilson (bottom left) had weak competition and still got killed.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

So Del Zotto did good

against weak competition last year

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 17, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly. One would’ve liked him to do more, but he was ok as a rookie. His +/-, aside from the Girardi thing, in part comes from the many (6) SHGs, and partly because of a bad sv% while he’s on.

The next step for this type of stuff is scoring chances, which will better account for the shot quality faced. While MDZ was outshooting the opponent, I’m near positive that the shots he was allowing were of much higher quality than one would like their defensemen to allow.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds very well… sound. The worse save % while on the ice could be partially due to allowing shots from higher shooting % areas. This starts getting tricky

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

On average defenses tend to alter a goalie’s ESsv% by only a few thousandths, so I’m not sure that’s enough of a factor.

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by red army line on Aug 17, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s what the data says now. Once all the teams are having their scoring chances tracked, I’m not sure that this will still hold. It could of course, I just tend to think it might show more of an impact.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

On shot quality

The only real effect seems to be on teams that intentionally try to limit (read: choke) chances like MIN and NJD.

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by red army line on Aug 17, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for that. As I’ve often said, I’m still somewhat new to this stuff, articles like that pre-date my exposure. I should dig through the archives more I suppose, but I’m lazy.

Very interesting, as you can tell, I definitely wouldn’t have guessed this to be true.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s kind of amazing how I can never find the article I’m looking for on BtN but I find one that I haven’t read before but is related and suffices for linking purposes anyways.

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by red army line on Aug 17, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

And wow is that article on MSG shot distance error interesting. I’m going to have to look into that some more. Wonder if was corrected last year.

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, if possible on stats like hits and takeaways you should use road stats in one analysis and home and road in the other, with more emphasis on the road one.

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by red army line on Aug 17, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes. I knew about biases in those, but somehow shooting position bias hadn’t occurred to me

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that as the year went on

Del Zotto did a little better toward the end of the year of stopping quality scoring chances.

In the beginning of the year Del Zotto was “going after the big hit” or simply got burned, which resulted in pretty clear quality scoring chances. But towards the end of the year he kinda figured things out.

This is a big year for him. I have a whole analysis on him, it will make more sense tomorrow, since I have a new segment starting up. You can acutally check it out early as an author ;)

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 17, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw, I like to be surprised though.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Think this is bad

Take a look at what they’re doing over at behindthenet.ca.

Only a matter of time before your writing for them Smurf lol

by Conway on Aug 17, 2010 1:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Where do you think we get our data? Love the behindthenet guys

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know

Actually meant to reference their blog site behindthenethockey.com

by Conway on Aug 17, 2010 1:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I know

Actually meant to reference their blog site behindthenethockey.com

by Conway on Aug 17, 2010 1:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Crap..thanks for reminding me. Forgot to give them credit.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow

This is amazing. Were you a Stats major? Because I don’t know anyone else who would ever use a graph of their own volition.

What I notice is the clear development in Doughty’s game. He was given tough competition from the beginning, and almost managed to strike even. After a year, he was pretty deep into the positive Corsis despite having slightly higher competition.

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by Scratch and Snif on Aug 17, 2010 11:33 AM EDT reply actions  

No. I have a decent math background though. I fought that graph for a while, I haven’t used graphs in Excel in I’m not sure how long.

Yeah…Doughty’s a player. They threw him immediately into the fire and though it took a year, he already turned it around and is pushing play.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Staal improved as well, because his Corsi barely changed when his competition increased.

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by Scratch and Snif on Aug 17, 2010 11:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Staal this year @ 23 hit a bit of a speed bump, his 2010 mark (-4.76, 1.494) would be directly above Schenn09, but higher than anyone else’s comp. He got absolutely no help from Torts, and still didn’t completely drown (like say, J. Johnson).

Having another top guy on this team to ease up on his competition would help immensely.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Amazing stuff

Props to Staal, this puts his value and his
‘underrated’ questions to rest. Mike Green haters are going to be upset when seeing the chart, although his QT might be helping him out a bit.

One thing I noticed is that 20yo old rookies seemed to struggle the most. I wonder if most of that class is brought up out of necessity, as opposed to playing their way onto a squad, which may be why the 19yo rookies seemed to fare better.

by Conway on Aug 17, 2010 12:22 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

They do say that

younger guys are “too stupid” to realize what they’re up against. And that might help calm the nerves. Although I doubt that 1 year would make that much of a difference.

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 17, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

20 year olds might just be sample size, with only 5 seasons there, one player can seriously hurt the averages. In this case, Letang’s rookie struggles were a reason the numbers were down.

As we get more data over the years, things should become more clear.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

Taking a look at JJs splits shows how much 1 person can sway a small sample size. Wow

by Conway on Aug 17, 2010 1:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

So wait, I’m confused……

How many earned runs can a guy give up and still have a perfect QB Rating?

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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Aug 17, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

It depends on how many 3 pointers he makes.

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by stonecoldcory on Aug 17, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

hmm, ok, that’s good to know, these soccer stats just confound me

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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Aug 17, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perfect chance to mention

Behindthenethockey.com has been making inroads into soccer analysis too. It’s good stuff if anyone out there is a fan of the English Premier League

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

La Liga fan here, but the Premiership is the best league. Also, it’s pronounced football, or IAF to distinguish from the NFL

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by Scratch and Snif on Aug 18, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just taking a quick glance

I’d say I’d be OK with us moving Staal for over half of that list. It’s probably closer to 75%, but I just sort of breezed it. Just putting it out there for people to think about when we’re talking about how essential he is to the club. Anybody got a quick way to cross-reference those guys with their salaries? I have an idea, but it would be cool to see what his peers are making with.

by BuckarooClub on Aug 17, 2010 4:15 PM EDT reply actions  

I’d say I’d be OK with us moving Staal for over half of that list. It’s probably closer to 75%,

Based on what? (I think I know the answer, but don’t want to jump to conclusions)

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting idea
Age 18 – Zach Bogosian

No

Age 19 – Erik Johnson, Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn, Dmitri Kulikov, Erik Karlsson, Michael Del Zotto, Tyler Myers, Victor Hedman, Zach Bogosian

No, Yes, No, No, No, No, Maybe, No, No

Age 20 – Kris Letang, Kris Russell, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn

Maybe, No, Maybe, Yes, No

Age 21 – Alexander Edler, Anton Stralman, Cam Barker, Jack Johnson, Jeff Schultz, Keith Yandle, Ladislav Smid, Marc Staal, Matt Niskanen, Brian Lee, Kris Letang, Kris Russell, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Erik Johnson, Jason Demers

No, No, No, No, Yes (/homer, but seriously, no), No, No, No (not older Staal for younger Staal), No, No, Maybe, No, Maybe, No, No

Age 22 – Andrej Meszaros, Braydon Coburn, Brent Burns, Brent Seabrook, Dion Phaneuf, Mike Green, Shea Weber, Alexander Edler, Andrej Sekera, Boris Valabik, Brett Festerling, Cam Barker, Chris Butler, Jack Johnson, Jeff Schultz, Keith Yandle, Ladislav Smid, Marc Staal, Matt Niskanen, Roman Polak, Cody Franson, Kris Letang, Kris Russell, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Ryan Parent, Ryan Wilson, Taylor Chorney

No, No, No, No, No, Yes, Yes, No, No, No, No, No, No, No, No, No, No, Staal, No, No, No, Maybe, No, Maybe, No, No, No, No

I may be a little high on Letang and Vlasic, by the way, and low on Erik Johnson.

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by red army line on Aug 17, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Looks like a comma-delimited nightmare. But I generally agree

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Short version

Maybes to Letang and Vlasic
Yes to Green and Weber and Doughty (and Schultz)

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by red army line on Aug 17, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes to Myers

And I would add maybe to Bogosian (given his age) and E. Johnson. Schultz, homerism aside, looks good as long as you don’t compare him to his teammates.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually..Hedman would give me pause as well.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was thinking about Myers, and maybe I should have had him too.

At any rate with Hedman we get proven vs unproven, and I think Staal is more of a known quantity. If Hedman turns out like Staal then Tampa fans should be ecstatic.

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by red army line on Aug 17, 2010 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree about known/unknown. I think he’s got too high a ceiling given his lofty draft status and the results this year, which seem to be promising. I’d really have to think about it.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

As a hockey fan, I’d be disappointed if Hedman turned out like Staal, given his potential. I say that not as a knock on Staal, who’s quite good, but as a nod to Hedman’s enormous potential. He has literally every tool you could ask for; plays with the puck, point shot, skates well regardless of his size, huge, thinks the game pretty well…Hedman could be an outrageously dominant blueliner in the future. If I were Snow, I’d have taken Hedman over Tavares.

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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 18, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

myers is a yes, and hedman must not be easily discounted. he was probably like 19 last year

by Ahmad Bradshaw on Aug 17, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

EJ, Doughty, Myers, and Hedman would be automatic yes’s for me. More upside, great defense with a great offense

by Tripodi on Aug 18, 2010 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I haven’t seen enough of EJ to really know. He hasn’t stood out to me really like some of the others.

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by red army line on Aug 18, 2010 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hedman does have that great dual potential, but he wasn’t a world beater in his first season so I’m not sure I’d take that risk on his future.

by dar9898 on Aug 18, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

He was also 18-19 on a terrible team his first year and if this chart says anything, it says that defenders generally get a lot better as they go from 18 → 19 → 20→ 21.

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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 18, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is convenient, because they all manage to age in exactly that order.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Aug 19, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, you know why

It’s just my opinion, but I think Staal needs to develop either a better physcial game, or a better offensive game to complement his positioning, before I but him in the upper echelon.

While I’ve been reading the comments, I realize my 75% figure might be a little high, since I included the most of the 18/19/20’s and there names kept popping up in the 21/22’s. Prob closer to somewhere between 50 & 60 percent. Granted, some of that is me thinking Staal might not hit his ceiling, and other guys will. The only two “can’t miss” 100% are Doughty and ’Neuf.

by BuckarooClub on Aug 17, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

So if all of those players' GM's banded together

And offered an enormous multi-team deal for Staal including more than half of that list, you’d accept?

I’d accept that trade too ; ) But there’s no way it would work with the cap

by dar9898 on Aug 17, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Well since you brought up trading Staal....

And since I know Smurf doesn’t wanna hear me suggest how we should move Staal for Ryan instead of overpaying him anymore….

How about Staal/Phaneuf centered deal with Toronto??

Here’s the my take on it

Toronto Gets: Staal, Reddon, Cally, Grachev

NY Gets: Phaneuf, Kaberle, Jerry D’Amigo and Christian Hanson

Before I get killed for putting everything you love in one trade, this could be huge for us.

Reddon is gone forever, he becomes Phaneuf. Not a bad deal at all. We take on Kaberle’s contract for this year, and we can keep him for under 4, he’s a better version of Rosi. ’Neuf and Kaberle can anchor the youth movement on D, with Kaberle checking out in a year or two (if we resign him) and Pheneuf here for the long haul.

Burke likes Staal alot, but he won’t go straight up for Dion, I’ve also heard he’s hot on Cally, and I think Cally’s skill set would be better served in Toronto where they have alot of young, skilled, players but you could use a younger grinder who’s been in the league a few years and can relate to the young guys, be a good influence (work ethic), but still be a regular player (he might be able to latch on in the top 6 there). It would take Staal and Cally alone to get rid of Reddon’s contract and land us Phaneuf, but I think that’s a tad high on our part, that’s why I added Grachev and expanded it.

D’Amigo and Hanson are the 8 and 13 prospects in their system respectivly. D’Amigo is WJC alum who had a great tourney along with Stepan, Bourque, and Kreider. It would hurt to give up Grachev, but I think D’Amigo would be THRILLED to land here. Hanson isn’t too high up in the organization, but he could be a solid third line center for years to come. We need depth up the middle, and he can provide it. He’s huge, but plays with the soft hands and good sense that a kid who came up around the pro game will have.

by BuckarooClub on Aug 17, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Burke would make this deal because?

by NTB on Aug 17, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Just a starting point

Feel free to suggest what you think is more realistic. It’s the offseason, there’s nothing better to do then talk “what if’s”. As I said, the core would be Phaneuf for Staal.

by BuckarooClub on Aug 17, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve got no argument for this one. Though I tend to agree with NTB, I’m not sure how Burke offers/accepts this deal. Plus Kaberle’s NTC kicked in, so he’s effectively off the market.

Incidentally, I’m not against Staal for Ryan persay, just not for this team. The Rangers have one player in the organization capable of playing top competition, to the point that he posted one of the highest QC rates since they started tracking this stuff.

If Ryan and Staal both sign two year deals and McDonagh (and/or someone else) establish themselves, I’d be all for it.

And it’s ReddEn. I’d also accept Reddoff.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 17, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why Burke make’s the move? Because I’ve heard he’s hot for Staal, He liked Cally enough to put him on Team USA, and as you said, Kaberle’s NTC kicked in, but I don’t think it would be a problem to get him to come to NY. Also he has ALOT of young parts, so losing his #8 and #13 prospects isn’t huge. However, what we would be offering would fit nicely with what he has, and lighten up his glut of defensemen.

Wasn’t coming at you for not agreeing that Ryan for Staal was fair, just know we battled back and forth on those posts plenty.

Redden/Reddon – the fingers want what the fingers want at this point. I make no apologies for typo’s. Hopefully it’s a name I won’t be typing much anymore.

by BuckarooClub on Aug 17, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

What Burke wants for Kaberle is a young top six forward and a high pick, I think. Callahan from what I read here is a top-9 who’s a serviceable but not real top-6.

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by red army line on Aug 18, 2010 6:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's what he wanted

Kaberle would have to waive his NTC to go anywhere now. Burke’s position is ALOT weaker.

by BuckarooClub on Aug 18, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Meh, Burke says that he doesn’t believe in asking for players to waive NTCs.
Kaberle is still a good player as long as you don’t put him out against someone good.

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by red army line on Aug 18, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is a young league now and will continue to be under the cap. Most players that are over 30 are obsolete. It used to be exceptable for a D to come in the league after college, which usually make them around 23 years old in the hockey world. That’s just too old now to enter the league. Younger players are cheaper and under a cap that’s what most owners want. The new NHL demographic is 18-30, so yeah I don’t have a problem with a D or forward coming into the league at 18. It’s not going to do any good for a player like Mcilrath to hang out in the minors for a couple of years. He should play right away. He’s a physical D and the meanest player in this years draft. Why have him breaking faces in the minors when he can be doing it in the NHL? Who’s going to do anything about his style of play? Last time I checked most goons are out of the league. Unlike Staal he will actually clear the crease! He’s a good enough skater to come directly into the NHL today. It’s not like it was 5-10 years ago. I like Mcilrath and Mcdonagh to make the team this year.

by NYRFTW on Aug 17, 2010 11:25 PM EDT reply actions  

The learning curve for D is really long. McIlrath would probably get abused. Heck, guys like Hedman and Doughty didn’t do so well in 18 year old seasons.

Kyle Turris was rushed into the league, and that might have hurt him. Not looking like Patrick Kane anymore.

Steve Eminger was rushed. He ended up going to Philly with Washington’s two 2nd round picks in 2008 for Philly’s 1st, John Carlson.

Philly didn’t rush Claude Giroux and James vanRiemsdyk, and now those guys look like studs, especially Giroux.

Guys out of juniors or NCAA generally aren’t good enough to make the jump.

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by red army line on Aug 18, 2010 6:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great post Ranger Smurf.

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by Carl Putnam on Aug 18, 2010 11:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Trying to figure out where you’re finding Corsi/60. This is a great analysis and I’m working on a similar plot for all of the Caps’ defensemen to see how they progress (or regress) over the years.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Aug 18, 2010 1:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I used the CorsiOn numbers from behindthenet.ca, on recommendation from Derek. Took that and the TOI/60 numbers to get the Raw Corsi number, then added the sums of the raw corsi and raw TOI, then converted it back.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 18, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fraid you lost me there. :( I know about behindthenet and QC and QT I got, I just couldn’t find a Corsi/60. I think I’ll do as redarmyline suggests and use RelCorsi.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Aug 18, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heh. It’s not listed as “Corsi/60”. It’s listed as “CorsiOn.” It’s right next to the RelCorsi column.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 18, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah ha. Got it. I’ll have to work that out later. Thanks!

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Aug 18, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

gotsparkly, I think the Rel Corsi listed on Behind the Net is already fixed to be per 60. At least, I checked against Kris Letang and got 12.1, which is right around the between 10 and 15 on RangerSmurf’s chart.

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by red army line on Aug 18, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks, I’m familiar with BtN :) I just didn’t see a Corsi/60, is all.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Aug 18, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent content. Rec’d. This is a great job of visualizing the data so it’s more accessible.

One stat I always wanted to see was a breakdown of QC by zone-start and home/road. Is a player getting the easy comp in his own zone? Is his QComp on the road changing because other coaches are trying to exploit it (or his pairing partner)?

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Aug 18, 2010 9:06 PM EDT reply actions  

This is fantastic work. The graph is excellent!

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by ToddtheFox on Aug 18, 2010 10:18 PM EDT reply actions  

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