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X Factors For 2010: Sean Avery Edition

Editor note: "X Factors" is a new series that I will be starting on Blueshirt Banter that will run until training camp starts. Basically, I am going to be looking and examining some of the biggest X factors for the New York Rangers this upcoming season.

We will start with the biggest X factor of all: Sean Avery.

It's difficult to explain to someone who isn't a Rangers fan, and doesn't see the team much, the type of value that Avery brings to the team. On the surface his numbers are average, with him usually being a lock for 15 goals and somewhere around 35 points. But it's what he does off the score sheet that makes him so valuable. 

I remember when the Rangers first got Avery, my freshman year of college. I was in JRN 161, not paying attention, and surfing the web. I stumbled upon the Avery trade, and was generally uninterested; I figured it was another head-case that the Rangers didn't need, how wrong I was.

Avery instantly became a fan favorite. His style of play fits Rangers fans (and the teams) wants and needs perfectly. He is one of those rare players that can fight, agitate, hit and do all the dirty work for your team; and yet he has soft enough hands to be dangerous on the ice. You can hate him all you want, but you have to respect his skill as a hockey player. That's something you can't say about the Matt Cooke's or Donald Brashear's of the world.

While not a true enforcer, Avery has no issues with dropping the gloves. And although he wouldn't handle himself well with the few serious heavyweights left in the NHL, he does just fine with most everyone else. Avery is a "protector" of the team, but not necessarily an enforcer.

Star-divide

One of my favorite memories of Avery was back in 2007 when the New York Islanders had acquired Ryan Smyth. I was in class watching that "game tracker" on Yahoo, when I got a text from my Devils fan friend Andrew. "Avery just f***ed up Smyth." Needless to say, after class I ran back to my dorm, and watch replays. I've embedded the video here for you all to see. They don't show a great replay of it, but it was a pretty devastating crush that knocked Smyth's helmet off.


When Avery is kicking, he is one of the most invaluable players in the league. When he is on his game he throws other teams off their game, and gets their star players to worry more about him than the game itself. He goes after star players, he trash-talks all game and he seems to have this uncanny ability to hit all the right buttons to drive a man insane. 

One of the best examples of this was in the 2007 playoffs when the Rangers swept the Atlanta Thrashers. Avery rode Ilya Kovalchuk all series, and it became apparent that Kovalchuk was more interested in getting back at Avery rather than worrying about the game. Eventually it boiled over and Kovalchuk finally snapped and tried to fight Avery. 

The best part of all this? Just when critics start talking crap, saying that Avery is a punk who has no hockey sense, he bangs home two and adds an assist. He hustles, he is full of heart and he even played most of a playoff game against the Pittsburgh Penguins with a lacerated spleen. 

Anyway, enough about memories, let's look towards what the Rangers need him to do this upcoming season. In a recent interview John Tortorella claimed that he "wasn't holding Avery back." And you know what? I can believe it. I think that everyone in the world -- especially Avery -- knows that he has exhausted all of his strikes with the NHL, and maybe that contributed to his tame style of play. There was also probably the initial "getting to know each other" period between a noted hard-ass coach in Tortorella, and a guy who constantly toes in the line in Avery. 

The Rangers need that Avery back. And while we saw the good Avery in streaks last year, we also saw times when he was completely invisible. As I said before, the first true season under Tortorella is my assumption as to why Avery was "on his best behavior." And while that was okay last year, there is no doubt that the Rangers could have used the Avery of old in a ton of different games. 

Avery's art is his ability to throw other teams off their game. Sometimes that becomes difficult when other teams have big time enforcers, who can easily manhandle a Rangers team, and do it without a smaller Avery being able to retaliate. But now that the Rangers have a true enforcer in Derek Boogaard, who can handle the other big time enforcer in the league, Avery should be able to do his work on a daily basis. 

Adding into the mix Brandon Prust, who can do his own share of enforcing himself, the Rangers have a trio that will not only scare the hell out of, but effectively rough up other teams. Avery should be able to do his dirty work, and might even play on a line with Prust during the season. As is such, Prust can keep the flies off Avery as he roughs it up during scrums, or infuriates the opposition into insanity. Prust is a bigger part of this equation depending on the amount of ice time he happens to see. I don't expect Boogaard to play more than 5 minutes a game, but Prust is a guy that Tortorella leaned on last year, and he might find himself playing 10+ minutes a game.  

Although not a real 2nd liner, he can soak up top line minutes, and even help on the power play in limited situations. He is a constant annoyance to Martian Brodeur,  the entire city of Philadelphia (including every one of Flyers, I've never seen one guy piss off an entire team before) and basically every team and player in the NHL.

The Rangers could use some of that this season. Actually, so can Avery. 

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Good article here….with a well-thought out analysis of what Mr. Avery offers the NY Rangers.

It’s nice to see an article that deals with reality; here’s an important player for the Rangers (who actually will be on the team this year) that needs to have a better year for the team. Not one bit of pointless speculation contained here, and I thank you for that…..

Prole art threat.

by greifi griffie on Aug 18, 2010 8:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Funny enough, when Avery was at the Roosevelt Field Mall signing autographs, that picture of him laying out Smyth was the one I had him autograph.

by Dave Shapiro on Aug 18, 2010 8:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Is this video not working for anyone else?

Mine seems to be just frozen when I try to play it

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 18, 2010 8:27 AM EDT reply actions  

Having a player like Avery gives the Rangers an instant advantage over most opponents. There are not many others like Avery – Jarkko Ruutu is similar – because of the fact that he can agitate and score goals at the same time. In my opinion he is the best in the league at pushing his limits. He may not be a favorite of the officials, but he is a favorite of mine. Avery is a key player to this team and should be treated that way by the coaching staff.

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by Nick Montemagno on Aug 18, 2010 9:00 AM EDT reply actions  

The amount of intangibles he brings is an X-factor, clearly there was a different player wearing #16 last year, and that element of his game is the most important to the impact Sean has on this team. He takes people out of position and he generates shots as a result. (good!)

Here’s the downside of Sean. He’s now 30. Like it or not, player production does dwindle as they get older. Now, not all players manifest it the same way, and last year could’ve just been an outlier. The difference between his ‘peak’ years, generally considered to be ages 25-28, and last year Sean though is noticable enough that there might be a red flag.

Still, it’s not like he went from 90 points to 60. At his peak, he was a 45-50 points per 82 guy (the Ranger versions was better than the non-Ranger version). Last year’s version was a 37 point guy, which for a guy whose role is not to be offensive but to BE offensive (by offensive I mean both the amount of offense and how he offends people…it’s a homonym..), he’s pretty valuable to this team, especially at the Dallas discount.

I still don’t think he’s the biggest X-factor, but he’s a significant question mark this year given the observed change in his game.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 18, 2010 9:05 AM EDT reply actions  

He's not the biggest X factor for the season

But he’s the most well known, so he goes first :). These aren’t in any order

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 18, 2010 10:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Your opening line is “the biggest X-factor of all.” Silly me thought you were serious :-)

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by George E. Ays on Aug 18, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well becayse he's the biggest name

not the most important … ya know what … quiet Smurf. :)

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 18, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know I’m probably in the minority here, but I think it will be hard for Ave’s to play his game going forward. I don’t think the blame falls on Tortorella’s shoulders, but rather the refs. I think Sean has worn out his welcome to anyone who isn’t a Ranger fan, so as opposed to drawing penalties, refs seem to be giving the other player the benefit of the doubt and send Ave’s to the box, making him a liability. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a decent skill set, because he does, FOR AN AGITATOR. Can’t stress that point enough.

I will follow this by saying I hope I’m wrong and he is back to his old ways. I think he needs to prove his usefulness to the Rangers this year because this is the only team left to play for in the NHL, IMO

by Conway on Aug 18, 2010 9:30 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Refs need to stop looking at the #16

Avery definitely gets called for nonsensical crap that other players wouldn’t. Clear example of this — when Clarkson rag-dolled him around the ice trying to get him to fight last season. Avery simply stood there, avoiding the altercation, looked at the ref and said “no” — and of course, BOTH went off with penalties. 2 minutes for standing. Classic NHL officials stupidity.

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by MartyEqualsPansy on Aug 18, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can't define Avery's effectiveness

But I know when I see it. Round 1 in 2007, Round 1 in 2008. Unfortunately that didn’t quite carry over to round 2 in either of those years against the Sabs and then Pens (even before his ruptured spleen).

I like that he brings some personality to what has become a very plain vanilla-mayo on white bread team over the past couple of years. I was at the Dallas game where he took over the game, not to mention one of the best passing plays for a goal the Rangers had all season (spin-o-rama then feathered a pass to Drury).

The questions I have with him however are:
-On average, how many minutes of ice time are required to make him the effective Sean Avery?
- Will he be able to stay on the ice for various reasons

I ask those two because if the Rangers are to develop young talent over the next couple of years, Avery can’t take up top 6 forward minutes unless he produces like one. And his style of play can lead to physical limitations (he’s played 70+ games in a season just once since the lockout, although last year he played 69), benchings for periods or scratches out of the lineup.

If the Rangers were deeper in scoring and had a more reliable PP, I could see giving the guy free reign on the 3rd line and letting him irritate opponents to his heart’s content. Otherwise, the guy is going to have to make the most of his minutes in order to justify his playing time.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 18, 2010 9:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Agree with most

But there is no way Avery should be getting top 6 minutes. That is not a formula for a winning team. Him Dru & Cally would make a solid 3rd line though

by Conway on Aug 18, 2010 9:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I agree Sean is not a top 6 forward, but a checking line consisting of Drury, Cally, and Sean might be the smallest checking line in hockey. Not one of those guys cracks 5’9….despite what their listing says. I know that was a line combo at some point last year and I hated it. They’re just too puny to shutdown the leagues best.

I hope Drury bounces back this year and gets a shot at the 2nd line.

http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/

by The Suit on Aug 18, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think by default Cally gets top 6 minutes

Counting his special teams play and defensive responsibilities he’s not a bad choice to play 2 line RW. 18-20 goals production isn’t great, but if he flanked two guys that could put up appx 60 goals by themselves then he’s fine in that role.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 18, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

It depends on how other people perform…I’d love if Cally could step up, but I’m not sure he can do more than he already has

I think there is going to be a rotating door at 1st line center between frolov and gabby…so who the hell knows what the rest of the roster will look like

Figure the 4th line is probably the only line that will be consistent with Boogie – Boyle- Prust…maybe Weise replacing Boogie pending the matchup

http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/

by The Suit on Aug 18, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think Boyle makes this team… but maybe I’m just being hopeful.

by j-red on Aug 18, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

i hear ya, he brings little to the table…but he’s a cheap cap hit

http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/

by The Suit on Aug 18, 2010 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

The first few seasons we had Avery, I loved the guy. He fits that blue-collar style of play to a T and who doesn’t love that? I’ve also met the guy a couple of times and find him to be one of the more interesting athletes.

The problem with Sean aside from the disappearing act, is his inability to stay healthy. He’s only about 5’8, but he plays like he’s 6’3. Guys who grind, who are that small, get nicked up. So for me, I’m more worried about him staying healthy. I think if he does, he’ll be fine. I think last year, was an adjustment for him and for Torts, but I’m confident they will have it all figured out. Sean can skate, and this system revolves around the forecheck and the rush, so as long as his head is on straight, he’ll have a role.

http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/

by The Suit on Aug 18, 2010 9:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Thank you, Suit ...

You’re the first one to mention he can skate. Others have said he has skills, or he has hands, but he’s a hell of a skater too.

Big Avery fan here: interesting player, innovator, fan favorite, fun guy to watch play for YOUR team!

Counting on a real good year from him and all the guys.

by Anders Griffen on Aug 18, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could easily see

Prust being the leading scorer on that line.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 18, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Me too...

Prust will definitely be the guy to watch next season (along with Anisimov)… If they end up on the same line for most of the season, I can see them both breaking out (figure around 35-38 goals between the two of them easily).

Prust took on greater responsibility near the end of the season, being incorporated in the Rangers’ PK, and along with Anisimov (and Shelley) became a line of legitimate scoring threat that put up one hell of a run, and got the team one goal away from a playoff berth.

I personally would love to see a third line of Avery – Anisimov – Prust, but from what I’ve been hearing they want Anisimov in the top 6, so right now it’s just a pipe dream.

by Kritikal on Aug 19, 2010 3:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

i like this line a lot…could be one of those shutdown lines in a sense where avery and prust could get in the face of the best player (crosby and etc) and let drury take care of the defensive of responsibilities…they can also chip in some offense because these three guys are better offensively than what their numbers were last year

i really wanna see tort’s opening night line-up (even though they’ll probably change 5min into the game)…mainly because i wanna see which players developed some chemistry with each other throughout camp…i dunno about you guys but i personally don’t think the rangers make the playoffs but i do think it’ll be a more interesting and exciting season….with that being said i just wanna watch some hockey

by nutz_35 on Aug 18, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

dont discount Dale Weise from the party. I think he’s just as likely to get 3d line minutes as Prust.

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by Jurgennehls on Aug 18, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can see this line as well

Although considering how well Prust and Anisimov played down the stretch last year I could see an Avery Anisimov Prust line.

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 18, 2010 1:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I love that line

MATTEAU!!!!! MATTEAU!!!!!!! MATTEAU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by stonecoldcory on Aug 18, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Joe, you’ve been reading my mind. That line would out-hustle and outscore other team’s bottom 6 with ease, and probably most teams’ second lines if used properly.

by Kritikal on Aug 19, 2010 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

 How about Frolov-A.A.-Prust

by nyr121 on Aug 18, 2010 10:51 AM EDT reply actions  

No way does Frolov get on a line with Prust, especially given Torts’ comments about trying Frolov with Gaborik.

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by Jurgennehls on Aug 18, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

the only way that that happens is if

Frolov gets relegated to the second line and Prust works his way up to the second line. It’s possible, I think that Prust will see some serious time this year.

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by Joe Fortunato on Aug 18, 2010 1:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I remember when the Rangers first got Avery

The day the Rangers traded for Avery, they were playing at home against Detroit. (For some reason I could’ve sworn it was against Montreal; had to double check) It just so happened that I was going to that game. I sat in section 423, as I do always, right above the beat writers, and I remember talking to the MSG employee who works in the beat writers section, trying to get a media guide with lots of information and stats from the days game and around the league, when he responded, “You know the Rangers made a trade today? A couple of minutes ago… (What? to who?) to LA… (What player?) Sean Avery.” Even though the Rangers lost that game (And here I thought they beat Montreal…) the whole game the talk in the section was about the Sean Avery trade.

When I got home, I looked up who Sean Avery was, only to find out he was the player who used to lead the league in penalty minutes a couple years back, and he was the same player I would always see as a free agent in yahoo fantasy hockey, think about picking him up for his PIM, and never do.

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by rmc235 on Aug 18, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions  

I'd be interested

to find out what prust was actually projected to be… i mean obviously he’s an Averyesque player now, but he does seem to have some really good puck skills in front of the net…

by Clalicata17 on Aug 18, 2010 1:44 PM EDT reply actions  

I have a Prust X factor post going up soon

so you’ll get some analysis there

Blueshirt Banter: Covering the New York Rangers the only NHL team with three home arenas.

"We can trade Lisin for a gun, then hold it to Drury’s head and make him waive the no-movement clause" - XLII

by Joe Fortunato on Aug 18, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can’t wait to read it Joe :)

by Kritikal on Aug 19, 2010 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Joe, I agree with almost all of your post; nice write-up!
But I think there’s a decent chance of Avery being demoted this year, and as Jurgen said above, I think Weise has a good shot at taking his place. Weise is bigger and stronger than Aves, can skate and hit, is more of a power forward. It’ll be interesting to see what Torts does with the roster/lineup.

by j-red on Aug 18, 2010 2:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I can’t see Prust getting above the third line…he can skate and can hit, but lets call a spade a spade here….the guy isn’t anywhere close to top 6 material

http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/

by The Suit on Aug 18, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Not yet...

He’s not top-6 material yet, but he’s still quite young, and has time to further develop his game. He’s got a knack for positioning himself in high-percentage shooting areas, while still being defensively responsible. If he works on his hands and his stride a little more, I see a lot of promise in this guy.

by Kritikal on Aug 19, 2010 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Prust is 26. He should be hitting his prime already, which means this might be his ceiling.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 19, 2010 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Spade a spade… but it’s so much better to wildly speculate about what could be for every gritty, high energy checker we have

by dar9898 on Aug 19, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

it is fun to speculate ;)

but ill save my speculating for guys under 25….

http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/

by The Suit on Aug 19, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

good post

Avery I def like his game even if you dont like the man his hockey is pretty good
I like the way he plays
I just wish the refs would give this guy a break
last year he took alot of cheap shots and refs just turned their eyes
def a tough guy I respect that

by ChiaCrack on Aug 18, 2010 6:31 PM EDT reply actions  

What about that Brodeur incident

I wasnt reading these boards during that time he was dancing in front of brodeur. What was the reaction from the guys here? I thought it was funny and overblown. I dont think he was going to keep doing that during the rest of that game or start doing that in every game. I also thought it was wrong of the nhl to change or implement any new rules during the season.

by Rats on Aug 18, 2010 6:56 PM EDT reply actions  

They had to do something to benefit the Devils so they’d stop crying about the post-lockout rule changes that “crippled” their team… tin-foil hat society, just like Detroit…

by Kritikal on Aug 19, 2010 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

it was funny because it was against marty but it was deninitely bush-league

by Conway on Aug 21, 2010 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Avery's X factor

As we all know, Avery had to and continues to serve his penance with the league and the refs. But this will dissipate. Given that, Avery, along with Prust, will agitate and get many teams and players off their game. Opposing players will be, for the most part, looking to run them. Avery and Prust are more than capable of handling themselves in their weight class, so to speak. Now here comes opposing true heavyweights. But wait, there’s Boogaard in the background and in their minds. So, Boogaard gives Avery/Prust room to be effective, which gives Cally/Dubi/AA ability to be effective, which in turn give Gabby/Frolov ability to be effective. OH, did I just jump the gun with Boogaard’s X factor. My bad. I was just trying to illustrate that sometimes Avery had to deal with teams true heavyweights. Although, not intimidated, it did lessen his effectiveness and the effectiveness domino theory. HEY, maybe a future post of a players true domino effect on the team and it’s performance. Just a thought…….I’m a new member and looking forward to the season.

by RonHarris3 on Aug 18, 2010 6:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Don’t forget Prust. One of his first fights as a Ranger was against Peters (I believe)… the guy had 6+ inches of height and reach, and 40+ pounds on him, and he still held his own.

by Kritikal on Aug 19, 2010 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

well avery has one less distraction, no more twitter. Now if we could get his head out of the fashion world he might become some kind of force again.

by teknics on Aug 18, 2010 8:44 PM EDT reply actions  

i think the whole fashion thing is overblown….what the guy does in his personal time isn’t really anyones business….its too bad he and voros twitter got shut down, i found their stuff kinda interesting

http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/

by The Suit on Aug 18, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeesh ya

he likes purses…..pause I know
E60 he is at a fashion show with that smoking redhead from ESPN and buys a Louie Vitton purse for himself and says the purse is beautiful
weirdo but great hockey player

by ChiaCrack on Aug 19, 2010 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

He likes the attention. Nothing wrong with being fashionably-sound… look at Don Cherry… now that guy needs some help with his wardrobe (as much as I like some of them, as well as his old-school mentality).

by Kritikal on Aug 19, 2010 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

If I was making $4 million a year, I’d probably have a nicer wardrobe too…..no purses though….that is a bit extreme haha, but hey he does live in Chelsea so….

http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/

by The Suit on Aug 19, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions  

My boys and I are Sharks fans – but I’ve shown my boys clips of Avery – they LOVE him. If they had to pick an east conf team, I think they would go with the Rangers just cause of Avery.

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by Angy on Aug 19, 2010 11:56 AM EDT reply actions  

You have to judge Avery by the body of work, not the individual play

Without putting any conspiracy theories out there, Torts has been too reactionary and controlling to let him play. Even his comments that he let Avery go to long this past season show that he doesn’t understand how to get the most out of Avery.

Aves will take some dumb penalties, but he makes them count. He doesn’t nudge a guy, he sticks him where it hurts, he dumps them into the boards, he does things that piss guys off, leave a mark. I see these penalties as like losing a hand or two early in poker, but using it win a big pot later. These guys think they got Avery when he goes to the box, but he keeps chirping and chirping, and eventually, because they’re hockey players, they do something about it. Aves might take a penalty in the first period, but he’ll get his guy to react down the line, when it matters.

Having Torts getting all worked up Aves every time he chirps doesn’t help his game. It also doesn’t help when other teams know Torts will bury you down the bench the first time you screw up. Torts needs to sit back, let Avery play his game, and get so much sweat on his shiny suits worrying if Aves is costing himself Lady Byng votes.

Regarding his scoring, I think Aves won’t have a problem contributing enough to stick around a few more years. He’ll probably be a 10-15 goal guy, but on this team, you’re contending for the scoring title with those numbers. I also think he finds a way to score some goals when he needs them. I’m not sure his skill outweighs his other abilities, but when he focuses on scoring, he seems to get it done.

by BuckarooClub on Aug 19, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

I completely understand it if this a sort of ‘gut-feeling’ you have, but I really don’t see any way to substantiate these claims.
Can you mention a specific time when Torts took control and did not allow Avery to ‘play his game’? (Excluding the Playoffs in ‘09 when Avery deserved the benching)
And again, this idea of Torts benching everyone for every little mistake is a bit much. How many undeserved benchings were there this year? 1? 2? I’ll concede Lisin’s benching, and maybe Gilroy’s. Others? I don’t think there were any.

I totally agree with your point in the second paragraph – but Avery didn’t do that very much this year, and I don’t see any evidence pointing to Torts for that. There were no imposed restrictions, and when Avery was benched this year, it was because he wasn’t playing like that… he wasn’t being effective.

by j-red on Aug 20, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

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Time for MSG and Time Warner to pay!!!! My new campaign!
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Defending the Blue Line Needs Your Vote
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MSG IS RUN BY GREEDY TROLLS
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Invitation to Meet Ron Greschner
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Brendan Morrow

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Atlantic Standings

GP W L OTL PT
New York Rangers 49 32 12 5 69
Philadelphia 50 30 14 6 66
Pittsburgh 51 29 18 4 62
New Jersey 50 28 19 3 59
New York Islanders 50 21 22 7 49

(updated 2.4.2012 at 8:30 AM EST)

32 - 12 - 5

Won 1


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