What happened to the Rangers' shooting?
by George E. Ays on Aug 24, 2010 8:15 AM EDT
in New York Rangers Analysis
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PrintThose who have read previous articles and comments of mine know that I believe 100% in the philosophy of shot creation and shot prevention being the most important elements to the success of an NHL team. Recently, Tyler Dellow revisited the topic of Even Strength shooting as it pertained to the Oilers, as did John Fischer for the Devils. Andrew Cogliano rumors aside, that's not what should matter to us. It's the Rangers that matter, so let's go ahead and review the Rangers the last few years where success has been dissipating
ES shooting is a fairly consistent phenomenoa. Not only league wide, but also positionally. Here's a look at the last 3 years, broken out by position (the term "qualifying" refers to players at the position with 40+ GP):
| All Players | Qualifying Players | |||||||||
| 2010 | SOG | TOI | ESS/60 | SH% | 2010 | SOG | TOI | ESS/60 | SH% | |
| Forwards | 43130 | 344429.43 | 7.513 | 9.529% | Forwards | 40638 | 322030.34 | 7.572 | 9.624% | |
| Centers | 16619 | 140385.96 | 7.103 | 9.104% | Centers | 15497 | 130093.39 | 7.147 | 9.266% | |
| Wingers | 26511 | 204043.47 | 7.796 | 9.796% | Wingers | 25141 | 191936.95 | 7.859 | 9.844% | |
| Defensemen | 13480 | 232572.47 | 3.478 | 4.421% | Defensemen | 12518 | 215753.01 | 3.481 | 4.434% | |
| Total | 56610 | 577001.9 | 5.887 | 8.313% | Total | 53156 | 537783.35 | 5.931 | 8.402% | |
| 2009 | SOG | TOI | ESS/60 | SH% | 2009 | SOG | TOI | ESS/60 | SH% | |
| Forwards | 41577 | 332756.43 | 7.497 | 9.647% | Forwards | 39196 | 311196.42 | 7.557 | 9.715% | |
| Centers | 15197 | 132531.78 | 6.880 | 9.416% | Centers | 14192 | 123439.17 | 6.898 | 9.534% | |
| Wingers | 26380 | 200224.65 | 7.905 | 9.780% | Wingers | 25004 | 187757.25 | 7.990 | 9.818% | |
| Defensemen | 12635 | 228019.79 | 3.325 | 4.306% | Defensemen | 12203 | 207776.08 | 3.524 | 4.138% | |
| Total | 54212 | 560776.22 | 5.800 | 8.402% | Total | 51399 | 518972.5 | 5.942 | 8.391% | |
| 2008 | SOG | TOI | ESS/60 | SH% | 2008 | SOG | TOI | ESS/60 | SH% | |
| Forwards | 39522 | 328723.91 | 7.214 | 9.640% | Forwards | 36941 | 305636.92 | 7.252 | 9.770% | |
| Centers | 15248 | 137019.29 | 6.677 | 9.490% | Centers | 14252 | 127798.47 | 6.691 | 9.578% | |
| Wingers | 24274 | 191704.62 | 7.597 | 9.735% | Wingers | 22689 | 177838.45 | 7.655 | 9.890% | |
| Defensemen | 12662 | 224978.41 | 3.377 | 4.249% | Defensemen | 11641 | 206194.79 | 3.387 | 4.330% | |
| Total | 52184 | 553702.32 | 5.655 | 8.332% | Total | 48582 | 511831.71 | 5.695 | 8.468% | |
As you can see, while the shooting has received a slight uptick the last 3 years, the basic trend is the same. NHL forwards launch about 7.5 shots per 60 minutes of play, defenseman about 3.5. Among the forwards, the wingers are getting about 1 more shot per 60. Even when you factor out part timers that bounce in and out of the league, the numbers are basically the same.
Now how about individually? You can probably figure out that Marian Gaborik is above average and Derek Boogaard is below average by this number, but what about the rest of the team? Let's have a look:
| NAME | 2007-08 | 2008-09 | 2009-2010 | NAME | 2007-08 | 2008-09 | 2009-2010 | |
| AVERY | 8.338 | 9.306 | 9.146 | GILROY | 3.979 | |||
| GABORIK | 11.941 | 9.496 | 9.105 | GIRARDI | 4.576 | 3.412 | 3.685 | |
| BOYLE | 9.657 | 8.027 | 8.638 | LEAGUE AVG | 3.324 | 3.325 | 3.478 | |
| CALLAHAN | 9.006 | 11.030 | 8.411 | REDDEN | 3.947 | 4.458 | 3.030 | |
| LEAGUE AVG | 7.448 | 7.497 | 7.513 | STAAL | 3.284 | 3.422 | 2.727 | |
| FROLOV |
6.925 | 5.909 | 7.062 | DEL ZOTTO | 2.584 | |||
| DUBINSKY | 7.876 |
8.263 |
6.942 | ROZSIVAL | 3.455 | 3.489 | 2.570 | |
| ANISIMOV | 6.349 | 6.870 | SAUER | 2.255 | ||||
| DRURY | 7.480 | 7.131 | 6.853 | EMINGER | 3.925 | 2.714 | 2.182 | |
| PROSPAL | 8.060 | 6.912 |
6.624 | |||||
| BYERS | 0.000 | 5.687 | ||||||
| CHRISTENSEN |
8.620 | 7.483 | 5.458 | |||||
| WHITE | 4.519 | 5.374 | 5.349 | |||||
| PRUST | 5.230 | 5.073 | ||||||
| BOOGAARD | 1.815 | 2.881 | 4.318 |
Red numbers indicate the player was not on the Rangers during that season.
The thing that really stands out with this list is every single forward, save for Brian Boyle (28GP in 09) and Artem Anisimov (1GP in 09), saw their numbers decrease in the first year under Tortorella. The defense suffered the same fate, with the exception of Girardi. It goes without saying, but this is not a positive, given the considerable youth on the team that should be progressing. One hopes this is a simple matter of adjusting to a new system, and that the players will all see the numbers rebound in 2010-11 with a year under their belts. If not, this would be solid evidence of Tortorella not getting his message through, or more likely the players are tuning him out.
The other thing that has to be deflating is the talent that was brought in since the beginning of last year. For all the chemistry Erik Christensen provided, he was not all that prolific in getting shots off. Brandon Prust scratched, clawed and endeared himself to fans by fighting from day 1, but those hoping for anything more than 3rd line potential with him are destined to be disappointed. Alexander Frolov had a bounce back year in 2009-10 in this stat, but his value still primarily comes from special teams. Todd White looks every bit his age. Derek Boogaard does at least seem to be improving from no skill to tolerable 5 minutes a night skill. As for Steve Eminger, it doesn't appear you can count on him for offense this year either.
Fortunately, this is still just one stat. Your reigning Hart winner, Henrik Sedin, managed a whopping 6.18 per 60 last year. Everyone's favorite whipping boy, Christopher Higgins, managed 9.28. Nonetheless, getting shots on net at ES is important for team success. It's no coincidence that teams like Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Washington and Philadelphia were 5 of the top 7 teams last year in ESS/60, while teams like Florida, Tampa, and Columbus were in the bottom 7.
If anyone is looking for a way for the Rangers to get back to the playoffs, finding a way to get more shots on net would be a fine start.
credit as always to behindthenet.ca for the stats
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Fuck yes
I’m in a rush, so I can’t read this article, but now I’ll be eager to get back. I’m sure it’ll be a great one, a usual
"Mes que un club"
"You're a pro or you're a noob. That's life"
by Scratch and Snif on Aug 24, 2010 8:26 AM EDT reply actions
Very good, George (as always)
Part of the problem as I see it, is the lack of defined roles on this team. Far too many hybrids on this team: roles are “interchangeable”, leading to overprocessed minds out on ice, which leads to indecision.
“Think long, think wrong.”
The Rangers’ hierarchy has been guilty of drafting and signing one too many hybrids, and finally got it right with the signings of Gaborik and Frolov. Hopefully, this has put the team in position to start having more shooting success.
I Am HockeyMan!!
"When I tap my stick like this (thump, thump, thump), put the puck on the tape, and I'll take care of things." Jaromir Jagr, for Bud Light.
Less time with the puck, less shots
Watching the Rangers last year vs previous seasons, I would say the reason the Rangers shots were down was because they possessed the puck less. I don’t think it has to do with coaching or getting the message through. It’s just the Rangers weren’t a very good team and good teams possess the puck for longer periods of time. The longer you have the puck, the more time you have something to do with it.
http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/
I agree
They were like the anti-Red Wings or Hawks with their lack of puck possession game. This stems from a poor passing game sncr they don’t have many players that are particularly adept at setting plays up whether off the rush or setting up a strong forecheck in the offensive zone.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 24, 2010 10:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It was a whole lot more of
“how can we pass to Gaborik,” rather than “let’s see if we can’t make space for each other.”
Blueshirt Banter: Covering the New York Rangers the only NHL team with three home arenas.
"We can trade Lisin for a gun, then hold it to Drury’s head and make him waive the no-movement clause" - XLII
by Joe Fortunato on Aug 24, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Right
The thing is probably the best two passers on the team last year played together on the same line in Gaborik and Prospal. That’s the one part of Gaborik’s game that I wasn’t aware he had was really sharp passing skills. Although I expect some of that comes from him being aware that he draws defensive attention and knows that opens up ice for one of his teammates.
I think Anisimov has good instincts with the puck, but whether he can channel that into developing overall good “vision” is a different story.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 24, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Shots are a reasonable predictor of puck possession
So I could see the team as a whole being down (which of course they were 31.7 down to 29.2).
For just about every single player to see a decline however, I feel like there must be something else going on. Not listed here because they are no longer current, but Lisin, Jokinen and Voros were also down, Shelley was up (but I don’t have his splits)
Even Edmonton, who was definitely not a good team, saw improvements among a couple of their young players.
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by George E. Ays on Aug 24, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Shelley
Was a goal scoring machine…for those last 2 games.
First time in his career he scored in consecutive games IIRC.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 24, 2010 10:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To me it all has to do with having players who can make plays. We have too many “grinders” whose first instinct is to play hot potato once they get the puck.
Someone mentioned the Wings and the Hawks, as teams who dominate puck possession, I’ll also add the Canucks and Sharks to that list. These teams have players who can stop on a dime when they are carrying the puck, read the coverage, and then make a play. We just don’t have that. Instead we see guys like Avery, Cally, Drury or whoever rush up ice and just fire it wide…and from a bad angle no less.
It may be a Torts thing, but I don’t know if I buy that. There is no “system” that teaches you not to put rubber on net.
http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/
I agree, it was probably premature to blame it all on Torts.
As I was writing it, I thought back a bit to how lost Staal looked early on when trying to decipher when he was supposed to pinch and when he wasn’t with Tort’s ‘safe is death’ implementation. So I felt this might have been a greater manifestation of that, not so much that the guys weren’t putting the rubber on net, as much as they were taking themselves out of position to do so. Either they were making a defensive lapse that pushed the play in the other direction, or in the offensive zone they were moving to places where they were leaving themselves prone to turnovers, or something else entirely.
I don’t like when things don’t have an explanation, when there is clearly a trend. That was the best explanation I came up with. I personally don’t see how having too many ‘grinders’ had an effect, when the roster was mostly intact between the two years in question. So that would take me back to the ‘system’ in place, where maybe Renney’s system took more advantage of the numerous grinders on the team. Not sure, I don’t pay that close attention to the offense during the year.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
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by George E. Ays on Aug 24, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally see where you are coming from, I approach stat progressions and trends the same way and clearly something may be going on. This was a good analysis.
Honestly I think keeping this team together for another year is going to make a huge difference. Learning an aggressive forechecking system is very difficult especially at a pace these guys are playing at. Defensemen are often the most susceptible to mental errors in this type of style and I think another year of having consistency should help this team immensely. It will be interesting to see what happens stats-wise once the players “get it”
http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/
by The Suit on Aug 24, 2010 11:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Actually, if you look at Torts reign in TB on hockey-reference, it suggests the shot totals from this Ranger team are pretty normal. It will be interesting to see if greater familiarity with the system produces more shots or just more goals.
Year—Total Shots
01-02: 2178
02-03: 2395
03-04: 2460 (SC)
05-06: 2594
06-07: 2418
07-08: 2354
09-10: 2425
These are total shots, not just EV like above. Hockey-reference doesn’t break them out and BtN doesn’t go that far back. NHL.com might, but too lazy to check.
Well, we should actually be better this year IMO. I believe Frolov will enjoy firing away at even strength something he could not do in LA. We should have upgraded our shot production in a way this year. Jokinen, Lisin, and Shelley are replaced with Frolov, MZA, and Boog. Our top nine in order is Gabby, Frolov, Prospal, Dubinsky, Callahan, Anisimov, Avery, Drury, Christensen, and MZA. I think we will be fine considering if Avery,White, and Drury ARE on a decline, AA, Duby, and Prust are getting better. I like our chances much better this year.
by louielounz1 on Aug 24, 2010 11:08 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Incredible
How the stats from year to year for all NHL players are that consistent. I mean, the shooting percentages from year to year, no matter what position, only increase or decrease by about a hundredth of a percent, which is about as miniscule a number as you can find in sports.
MATTEAU!!!!! MATTEAU!!!!!!! MATTEAU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To that end, you can also see how consistent the level of NHL goaltending generally is. It’s also why overpaying for goaltending is generally a big mistake, given an average goaltender is fairly easy to find. The market this year finally started to reflect that fact, and it should continue.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 24, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly, why Henrik Lundqvist is actually a player with negative value due to what smurf what call “Sather Inflation”
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Aug 24, 2010 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Well think about it this way. Virtually the same players, same size ice, same amount of time, same line formats, and pretty much the same minute distribution over a long period of time. Unless there is a huge talent spike or a lockout style remodeling of the game, there is nothing that would be conducive to change.
"Mes que un club"
"You're a pro or you're a noob. That's life"
by Scratch and Snif on Aug 25, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe the Dubi for Cogs rumor again?
That was making some noise last year.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 24, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s an older rumor, though I’m not sure it ever died. I coulda gone with Souray, preferred to use the forward.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 24, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Typo
By the same token, the players that were let go, Scott Gomez (9.623), Nik Zherdev (9.409), and Nik Antropov (9.208) and
Crap..good find…..thought I deleted that line out.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 25, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Great work Smurf…
If this doesn’t improve, Torts will need to go after this season.
Question: At what point in the season do you think it will be worth compiling these stats again to get an indicator of how the team is doing?
Quarterly is probably decent enough. I’ll surely revisit this as roles start to get defined.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 24, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Tip of the hat
It is great to see this all worked out so thoroughly, I would love to see Rozi and Del Zotto shoot more from the point. I am always thankful when Avery just rips one at the net to test the goalie, seems fewer and fewer players are doing it. The powerplay can certainly do with some more shooting and once the Rangers work out how to carry the puck into the offensive zone on a regular basis maybe piece something together for even strength shot-oriented hockey.
In Hank we trust.
So - what you are saying is:
The Rangers have a better chance of scoring if they shoot more pucks on net. That is phenomenal science. And in other news, dogs are good as pets!
I laughed. It’s pretty funny when put in blunt terms.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 24, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
5v5, behindthenet has it as an increase of 133 to 154. So even more drastic, but they were mostly below average last year (6.8% shooting last year, as opposed to 8.3 this year)
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 24, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is George? And what happened to Rangersmurf? Did not see any introduction for this George on the main page as i have been accustomed to with new writers.
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Aug 24, 2010 11:54 PM EDT reply actions
The man formerly known as Rangersmurf now goes by Jorgé E. Ays.
"Mes que un club"
"You're a pro or you're a noob. That's life"
by Scratch and Snif on Aug 25, 2010 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions
It was a coup. I’m not sure anyone is on to it yet. Shhhhhh
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 25, 2010 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I actually think some of these stats are a bit misleading, specifically when looking at Boyle’s totals. Players who play so few minutes a game should probably just be discounted. If you play 5 minutes on average and manage 2 shots would have 12/60, which isn’t at all realistic.
"Mes que un club"
"You're a pro or you're a noob. That's life"
by Scratch and Snif on Aug 25, 2010 1:21 AM EDT reply actions
2 per 5 is actually 24 per 60
Incidentally, while Boyle shooting 12/60 would in fact be unrealistic, you can clearly see he’s not good enough to get up to 12/60. 12/60 is a realistic rate, but it’s reserved for some of the top goal scorers (Ovechkin, Carter for instance). It’s true the more ice time, the more established the rate would be. The numbers do generally stay consistent with one’s talent level, with some variations from year to year because of the smaller sample. Young players should be seeing an increase as they get to their prime, and older vets should start to see a decline.
Also, there is value in having your 5 min a night guys generating shots that often. 82 games of 5 minutes is still 410 minutes of ice time, not an insignifcant quantity over the year..
Just look at the difference between Boyle and Booger, w/ 410 minutes of ice time, Boyle would get you 59 shots, Booger gets 29. With league average shooting (which is being kind to Derek), that’s 2.5 goals right there. Now obviously Booger’s value comes from an intangible set that is hyped to negate that kind of difference, but there’s an obvious difference there. If you could find a 4th liner who could get 12/60, you’d gladly take him. Though anyone that good probably wouldn’t stay on the 4th line very long.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 25, 2010 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Great article and explanation. Do you happen to know if the results would change much if only ES offensive zone minutes were considered?
Well, the rates would certainly increase!
Do my knowledge, ES zone minutes aren’t currently tracked anywhere, so I’m not sure how to even come up with that. I suppose it could be estimated using ZoneShift and such, but I honestly don’t know if that work would wield anything meaningful.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 25, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone else find themselves....
screaming “SHOOT” whenever they watch the Rangers play??
"Lets go out there like a bunch of crazed dogs" -L.T.
déjâ vu?
"Mes que un club"
"You're a pro or you're a noob. That's life"
by Scratch and Snif on Aug 26, 2010 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
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New York Rangers
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Philadelphia
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