Callahan and Dubinsky - WOWY and Conclusions

In Parts One, Two, and Three, we tackled the majority of Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan's contributions to the team.  Here, we'll take a look at their contributions to their teammates, using a With or Without You (WOWY) analysis.

Simply put, WOWY is a look at a single player's impact on the teammates he is playing with.  This is not an original idea, it started (I believe) with Tyler Dellow's articles on Shawn Horcoff and Alexander Ovechkin, and was adapted quite well by BenHasna at Lighthouse Hockey to look at Frans Nielsen  Now, it's my turn, using our two popular players.  While they focused on Corsi events (total shots directed at net), I'm going to use Fenwick data. 

Fenwick% is the ratio of shots on goal + missed shots for versus SOG + missed shots against.  As you will see below, Avery & Dubinsky were on the ice together for 126 total shots, 60.32% (76) of which were Rangers' shots.  As a reference, the team's total rate this year was .4961.  These numbers apply exclusively to 5v5 situations.

First, we'll take a look at Dubinsky.  Like the examples, I'm using only forwards with whom Dubinsky has 100 events with:

 

With Dubinsky

Without Dubinsky

Dubinsky Without

 

 

Total Events

Fenwick%

Total Events

Fenwick%

Delta

Total Events

Fenwick%

Delta

Avery

126

0.6032

995

0.5126

17.67%

1346

0.5052

19.40%

Drury

218

0.5138

1079

0.4486

14.53%

1254

0.5136

0.04%

Prospal

403

0.5385

1218

0.4992

7.87%

1069

0.5042

6.80%

Christensen

348

0.4799

560

0.4732

1.42%

1124

0.524

-8.42%

Gaborik

795

0.4994

953

0.5037

-0.85%

677

0.5303

-5.83%

Anisimov

101

0.4752

1126

0.516

-7.91%

1371

0.5164

-7.98%

So what first stands out is that no matter who Dubinsky is separated from, the team outshoots while he's on the ice.  That is a strong positive, indicative of him being able to push the puck forward himself.  The second thing is the common line suggestion of Dubinsky-EC-Gaborik that we talk about.  With or without Dubinsky, neither EC nor Gaborik show much of an effect on their own rates.  However, Dubinsky is seriously "hurt" by playing with those two.  That can be explained by the QComp levels of the trio, which not only were 1-2-3 on the Rangers, but top 7 in the league.  Even the best players would be hard pressed to overcome that level of competition.  That he and Gaborik broke even, and Dubinsky/Christensen were not completely overwhelmed are all positive signs.

Callahan's numbers and a final summary, after these words, which aren't sponsored.

With Callahan

Without Callahan

Callahan Without

 

Events

Fenwick%

Events

Fenwick%

Delta

Events

Fenwick%

Delta

Gaborik

74

0.6757

1674

0.494

36.78%

1260

0.4873

38.66%

Christensen

153

0.5098

755

0.4689

8.72%

1181

0.4962

2.74%

Drury

643

0.4681

654

0.4511

3.77%

691

0.5253

-10.89%

Prospal

249

0.5221

1372

0.5066

3.06%

1085

0.4922

6.07%

Anisimov

181

0.5249

1046

0.5105

2.82%

1153

0.4935

6.36%

Avery

247

0.5263

874

0.5217

0.88%

1087

0.4913

7.12%

Despite only 74 events, I've left Gaborik in for continuity between the two players.

Here, we see a dramatically different picture than Dubinsky.  Callahan is benefitting more from playing with our top 6 forwards then those forwards are benefitting from him, and in fact without help, Callahan often gets outshot while he's on the ice.  This is where some context comes in.  As we saw from their individual zone starts, Callahan had about 3% more defensive zone starts than Brandon.  While that's not enough to justify the entire gap between the two players, it does mean that it would be slightly harder for Callahan to outshoot.  That point is never more evident than when Callahan is with Drury, who's ZoneStart was the worst on the Rangers at 38.7, and among the worst in the league.  That together they were only outshot by 43 (300-343) is a testament to both.

Here's a look at their shifts together:

 

Total Shots For

Total Shots Against

Total Events

Fenwick%

Cally & Duby

165

155

320

0.5156

Callahan w/o

499

515

1014

0.4921

Dubinsky w/o

591

561

1152

0.5130

When they're together, Dubinsky's the driving force, which is to be expected based on their individual WOWYs. 

So now that we've put every part of their games under the microstat microscope, what did we determine?

Let's review:

Callahan - His even strength production is tied reliably to his defensive responsibilities.  He makes up for a weaker shooting percentage with a strong ability to get shots released.  He's an excellent penalty killer.  He shows strong PP value when playing with excellent teammates, has no history of value when he is w/o them.  His aggressive style helps give him a strong penalty differential.  He's unable to drive play himself, but players benefit from having him on the line with them. 

Conclusion:  He's a middle 6 forward, with the probable ceiling of a middle 6 forward.  He will mostly provide a baseline of 40-45 points going forward.  With powerplay time and/or an ease in defensive assignments, he could have a max of around 55-60 points.  He'll give consistent 18-22 goal seasons because of his ability to get off 200+ shots.

Dubinsky - His even strength production is tied reliably tied to his own skill and effort.  He plays tough minutes and handles them well, showing ability to outshoot even without help.  He has put up good numbers as a PKer, but mostly has Henrik to thank for them.  He is not a PP marvel, but has shown consistent growth over time.  Like his reputation, his penalty differential represents a lack of consistency in effort and production.  The puck moves in the right direction while he's on the ice. 

Conclusion:  He's a middle 6 forward, with strong indicators of a top 6 forward and a small chance of becoming a solid 1st line forward.  He will provide a baseline of 45-50 points going forward.  With powerplay time and consistency, he has a potential for 60-65.  He'll give consistent 15 goal seasons, needing increased shot totals to elevate to be a reliable 20 goal threat.

In essence, we end up with a confirmation of what we already thought we knew.  We have two very similar players, the younger with a slightly higher ceiling based on his ability to perform better against high level competition.  Both provide valuable roles to the team, and should remain Rangers for a long time.

In Part 5.....just kidding.  That's everything there is to tell, so far.

Stats credit to timeonice.com

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