Realistically Replacing Wade Redden
Wade Redden is not long for the blue sweater. Most agree that signs point to him spending his better days in Connecticut. The cap situation, now that Staal has re-signed, will leave little room for other moves other than the demotion of Redden. Further, the addition of Steve Eminger, along with the invitations to Garnet Exelby and Alexei Semenov leave the Rangers options to fill up the back line positions. While this all has led to much rejoicing among the fan base, jokes of Redden resembling a certain orange conical object are somewhat exaggerated. At this time, we should take a look at what it will really mean to replace Wade in the lineup.
Since Redden joined the lineup forty two years ago, the Rangers have relied on him to suck up top 4 minutes. Here's the breakdown of his ice time:
| Total ES | 5v5 | Total PP | 5v4 | Total SH | 4v5 | Total | Per Game | |
| 2008 | 1341.23 | 1265.22 | 293.33 | 271.35 | 174.63 | 165.24 | 1809.20 | 22.336 |
| 2009 | 1131.62 | 1089.00 | 22.60 | 22.60 | 159.67 | 157.50 | 1313.88 | 17.518 |
Redden's ice time was seriously cut under the Tortorella era, from 22+ minutes down to 17.5. Still, that's a healthy dose of minutes that need to be replaced. To maintain the status quo, it would obviously be important to replace those minutes, as best as possible, with equal or better production. In order to figure that out, we need to know exactly what Wade did with those minutes. We'll start defensively:
| QUALCOMP | SAON | SAON/60 | GAON | GAON/60 | SV% ON | +/- ON/60 | |
| 5v5 | 4 of 6 | 1126 | 28.697 | 77 | 1.962 | 0.932 | 0.280 |
| 4v5 | 5 of 6 | 230 | 42.759 | 19 | 3.532 | 0.917 | -3.160 |
For comparison's sake, here's the rest of the team over this two year span, or simply when Redden is off the ice:
| QUALCOMP | SAOFF | SAOFF/60 | GAOFF | GAOFF/60 | SV% OFF | +/- OFF/60 | |
| 5v5 | n/a |
2363 | 29.450 | 197 | 2.455 | 0.917 | -0.137 |
| 4v5 | n/a |
477 | 46.921 | 50 | 4.918 | 0.895 | -3.836 |
Defensive numbers are the hardest thing to measure statistically at this stage of the game, but we can still make some notes here. Redden's been on the ice for slightly less than 1 shot per 60 against, which doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, yet he's been on the ice for almost .5 goal less per game at 5v5. Is this because Redden is secretly a defensive stalwart? NO! Hank, Valiquette, Johnson, Zaba, and anybody else thrown back there have posted ridiculously above average save percentages with Redden on the ice. While there might be some evidence that a defenseman can affect this number (see this article by Vic Ferrari for more info), it is much more likely that the weak competition levels and some fortunate bounces are the only reason Redden hasn't been torched.
If we adjust Redden's rates down to the team average, we begin to see in the numbers what most anyone can see with their eyes, that Redden's defense just isn't very good these days:
| GAON | GAON/60 | ADJ GAON | Adj. GAON/60 | Change | ADJ +/- ON/60 | |
| 5v5 | 77 | 1.962 | 93.873 | 2.392 | +16.873 | -0.150 |
| 4v5 | 19 | 3.532 | 24.109 | 4.482 | +5.109 | -4.110 |
Redden's numbers look somewhat pedestrian from this angle. He is still slightly ahead of the team averages, but the gap has closed significantly, and when you factor in that he is not asked to handle the difficult assignments with any consistency, things are just poor.
Worse than that, (no really, it gets worse), has been the lack of offense coming from Redden's stick:
| SFON | SFON/60 | GFON | GFON/60 | SH% ON | G/60 | P/60 | IPP% | |
| 5v5 | 1200 | 30.583 | 88 | 2.243 | 7.333% | 0.076 | 0.663 | 29.545% |
| 5v4 | 238 | 48.580 | 19 | 3.878 | 7.983% | 0.408 | 1.225 | 31.579% |
And the comparable numbers for Rangers defensemen:
| SFOFF | SFOFF/60 | GFOFF | GFOFF/60 | SH% OFF | G/60 | P/60 | IPP% | |
| 5v5 | 2440 |
30.409 |
186 |
2.318 |
7.623% |
0.175 |
0.681 |
n/a |
| 5v4 | 534 |
49.706 |
61 |
5.606 |
11.423% |
0.401 |
2.447 |
n/a |
Comparing to the rest of the team, his points look ok, as he's has had some bad luck when it comes to the team shooting percentage. Consider, however, that guys like Sauer, Sanguinetti, Heikkinen, and Potter are contributing roughly 175 minutes of zero production to the team total, and it becomes that much worse. In addition, almost 300 minutes of PP time given to Redden has given the team 6 points. Granted, most of that was two years ago, but it is still just terrible production. Again, this is not Redden trying to score against a non-stop supply of Selke and Norris finalists. Redden has played the dregs, and proven himself unworthy even against them.
Now that we've defined the bad, we can go back to the topic at hand. Someone has to replace Redden's minutes from last year. The 22 powerplay minutes are not a big deal, any of the players in camp can absorb those extra minutes.
Instead, we'll concentrate now on the ~1130 minutes at ES. These numbers would assume that everything would stay constant, which of course is not true. For the purpose of this exercise though, it's good enough. The four main candidates to replace him are Ryan McDonagh, Semenov, Exelby, and Eminger. Let's have a look at what they might do with the time by looking back at what they've done the last 3 years. We'll start with 5v5:
| YEAR | QUALCOMP | NET SH/60 | PROJ +/- /60 | Goals/60 | Points/60 | Hits/60 | Blocks/60 | |
| Redden | 2008/09 | 5 of 6 | 0.927 | 0.004 | 0.076 | 0.663 | 3.593 | 3.324 |
| Exelby | 2007 | 5 of 6 | -3.508 | -0.015 | 0.136 | 0.544 | 7.077 | 5.509 |
| Exelby | 2008 | 3 of 6 | -3.813 | -0.017 | 0.000 | 0.358 | 9.184 | 6.021 |
| Exelby | 2009 | 6 of 6 | -5.647 | -0.025 | 0.097 | 0.340 | 10.138 | 6.292 |
| Total | -5.468 | -0.024 | 0.072 | 0.382 | 8.298 | 5.812 | ||
| Semenov | 2007 | 3 of 7 | -4.038 | -0.018 | 0.108 | 0.757 | 4.294 | 3.041 |
| Semenov | 2008 | 7 of 9 | -0.982 | -0.004 | 0.000 | 0.670 | 5.186 | 2.935 |
| Total | -1.989 | -0.009 | 0.073 | 0.728 | 4.870 | 2.973 | ||
| Eminger | 2007 | 8 of 8 | -3.424 | -0.015 | 0.242 | 0.849 | 4.580 | 2.155 |
| Eminger | 2008 | 3 of 7 | 3.512 | 0.015 | 0.157 | 0.679 | 3.011 | 4.653 |
| Eminger | 2009 | 3 of 8 | -5.917 | -0.026 | 0.000 | 0.561 | 4.987 | 4.840 |
| Total | -1.828 | -0.008 | 0.178 | 0.739 | 3.940 | 4.544 | ||
| McDonagh | n/a | 4 of 6 | -1.172 | -0.005 | 0.170 | 0.624 | 3.134 | 3.420 |
Legend here: NET SH/60 is (SFON-SFOFF)-(SAON-SAOFF). PROJ +/- is the projected +/- per 60 for each player if they maintained those shot rates with goaltending at 92.0%, and team shooting at 8%.
It should be clear quickly that Exelby's most endearing qualities have nothing to do with his ability to play defense. He is credited with hits at nearly twice the rate of any of our contenders, but he clearly does it at the expense of his defense. The more hits he has, the worst his shot differential gets, meaning he's probably taking himself out of position too much for the sake of those hits. His coaches have been slowly taking his ice time away as a result. He brings a different element to this team, but different does not always mean better.
Semenov's been better than Exelby, but with only 67 games in the last 3 years, it's unclear exactly how much his numbers would still translate. He got hammered when San Jose tried to give him better competition, but faired better when it eased up. It's also not encouraging that he blocks shots at a rate less than Redden's, considering his size. He did earn a spot last year, but competition is much stiffer this time around.
Eminger, on the other hand, did show that he could handle even 2nd pair competition during the 2008 campaign, but failed to translate that success to his time in Anaheim. He's clearly the best offensive option of the bunch, even if his production has been slipping. The question would be his defense, which is seemingly inconsistent. He will not be asked, however, to take on the same level of competition he faced the last two years, so the easier assignments should help improve his numbers.
Obviously Ryan McDonagh does not have a history, so you'll probably ask yourself where his numbers come from. They are the averages of 21 year old rookie defensemen over the last 3 years, using information I gathered in my story on young defensemen in the league. They are a good baseline, but it's hard to make a definitive conclusion off of them. There's no telling how exactly he will fair in his first NHL action. Given his reputation, he'll almost surely hit more than his fair share, and he'll also likely outperform in his shot rates, but I would hesitate to say he'll score at an above average rate.
Add it all up, and it seems the best chance at not creating a downgrade on defense is to play one of McDonagh or Eminger in the minutes left over. There are also some X-Factors here, to steal Joe's term. Pavel Valentenko could come in and surpass everyone. Semenov can play his way right back in to a spot the way he did last year. Tortorella could decide the value of toughness is worth the couple extra goals against (or is valuable when Booger is out of the lineup), giving Exelby a spot. Finally, Matt Gilroy, who fell out of favor last year, could step up and take on some of those extra minutes himself, easing the burden on any of these four players.
What do you think?
(advanced stats credited to behindthenet.ca. Ice time, hits, and blocks data from NHL.com)
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McDonagh
I can’t support having Exelby as a top-four defenseman when the Rangers have so much depth and youth to turn to before him. Exelby really doesn’t add much offense (if any) and his only upside would be his physical play and his ability to throw the body… unfortunately at the rate Exelby throws the body he takes himself out of position and would leave his defensive partner stranded more often than not.
Eminger is a bit of an enigma in the race, he certainly adds an offensive punch that Semenov and Exelby lack but is he better than McDonagh? Eminger had 4 goals and 12 assists in 63 games with the Ducks, finishing as a +1 with an average ice time of 19:28. He might be just as applicable for the position as Semenov, but I feel the Rangers didn’t acquire him to be in the starting six on the blueline, from what I have heard about Eminger he is inconsistent and wholly unremarkable.
I assume that the top four defensemen in minutes will be Staal, Girardi, Del Zotto, and Rozsival… with Rozsival potentially losing some minutes. I like the idea of Semenov being in the lineup mainly because of his size, something the lineup lacks and could use more of. Semenov certainly isn’t a flashy player and might make a solid partner for MDZ, then again he might not. Still, it seems almost risky to plug Ryan McDonagh into an already young defensive corps. Perhaps that is why Semenov is so attractive as the 7th defenseman for the upcoming season (as he was last offseason before Mrs. Semenov told him he couldn’t play with the Rangers), because he adds a veteran presence and a sense of reliability on the blueline.
At the moment I think that McDonagh really made a case for himself in theTraverse City Tournament, 4 games, 3 assists, +4 and was named captain of the Rangers prospects. McDonagh is first-round talent and could presumably come into the lineup, take Reddens minutes, and do much better with them. If he has a solid camp and preseason I think he cements the spot as his, at the moment I firmly believe it is his job to lose to Semenov, Eminger, and Exelby. McDonagh is both the biggest question mark and potentially the biggest reward because of his potential and his talent. The Rangers should encourage competition in camp, especially among the defensemen and the 3rd/4th line but the club should also give a valuable prospect like McDonagh a chance to prove himself on the big club. McDonagh is 21 years old and has a well-rounded game, I think he would fit handsomely into the Rangers lineup.
In Hank we trust.
by Dig Deep on Sep 16, 2010 6:39 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Excellent analysis
Redden was brought in to help the transition game and play the point on the PP and his lack of production has made his stint here an unqualified failure. Obviously it would have taken probably Lidstrom-like production to justify his contract but to not even achieve production somewhere along the lines of what Del Zotto did last year as a rookie is nothing short of disgraceful.
I have to imagine the top 4 will consist of Staal, Girardi, Rozi and DZ. I think the remaining 2 will be a revolving door of Gilroy, Eminger, McD and possibly if Semenov/Exelby win a job. Hopefully there’s an uptick in goals for from the offense which will allow the blueline to focus on preventing goals and scoring chances.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 7:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Also
It’s hilarious that Redden looks like he’s in ready position for a play that’s already blown by him in that photo.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 7:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'd say a bag of oranges probably has more defensive value than Redden
at this point…please do another right thing Sather and send this albatross to hartford! Aside from Sheldon Souray, just about anyone is a better replacement than Mr. Redden….
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
A bag of oranges
Think of all of that vitamin C! Or things to pelt Redden with! I am sure if you froze an orange it would turn into a lethal, citrusy projectile.
And I can think of a hundred uses for a bag!
In Hank we trust.
oops
meant to type, “albatross of a contract” sorry.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I'm not a numbers guy
There, I said it, go ahead and throw stuff at me.
Not that I knock numbers guys, I’ve just never been a fan of applying moneyball-type stats to hockey, if only because I’m an old school guy and I forever have Ken Dryden’s comment from The Game about how many times the puck changes possession over the course of a shift, a period, a game that in the end, numbers outside of goals & wins don’t mean anything.
I’m amazed at how these numbers are put together, though, since it’s completely out of my math-league. I just don’t need to look at numbers to know that that pic of Redden standing in position while the Flyers celebrate a goal is all too common.
What’s my point here again? Oh yeah.
I said at the time of the deal that Eminger, on surface, doesn’t do anything terribly worse than Redden and gives more value based on his salary and for that alone was, at the time in my mind, the replacement ARISTH.
As usual, though, George/Smurf does a bang-up job putting the numbers together, and I’m forever going to feel like a caveman being given a ride in a Ferrari when I read his posts.
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
by joereiter on Sep 16, 2010 8:14 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Tosses math book across the room
Just kidding. And this isn’t directed at you in particular, but I think the problem that the traditional crowd has when it comes to a lot of the Moneyball-oriented slant on sports is that the nice round averages that get presented “on the back of baseball cards” smooth out a lot of randomness and variability that is commonly found in sports. Averages sort of build an expectations of either a linear chain of events or a binary choice of outcomes. Stat sheets would be too long if they had to include means, confidence intervals, standard deviation and regression, normalization, etc.
Also when it comes to statistically valid samples, the human mind has a very poor capacity to remember large number of similar events and differentiate between them with even an average degree of accuracy (for example what did you eat for dinner 3 weeks ago? You know you ate dinner, but unless you were celebrating a special occasion and deviated from your normal eating habits it might be hard to remember). The point is, it is much easier to recall the exception rather than the rule. Data sets like those above make sure that random events are taken into account, but contrasted against what has typically happened on an ongoing basis.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions
yea...
its embarassing to say but i have a really difficult time following posts like this. maybe it would help some of us if there was some kind of explination of what all the terminology meant.
at the end of the day, i agree with the premise. we’ve been ranting about Redden so long that now that he’s essentially out the door we need to get serious about filling his skates. he might have been over paid, he might not have been an all-star, but he DID play a crucial role in the composition of the club.
d
maybe it would help some of us if there was some kind of explination of what all the terminology meant.
I try to define anything I haven’t used before. I can start just leaving the definitions in for every post, that’s not a problem.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Just create a graph
With data points that turn into a big frown face :( when it comes to Redden.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Guys I hear you, a lot of this stuff is way over This Old Man’s head too, but this is the “Brave New World”, and I am glad we have George here to explain it to us. We have always tried to give you guys things no other Ranger blog has, and this is just another part of it.
Voice and Joe, the three of us can sit down sometime and discuss GAA, I think we can figure that one out.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
GAA is something to do with number of goals given up by a goaltender, right?
My head is still spinning from the behind the net site.
Damned kids and their newfangled numbers, got an explanation for everything….
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
In our day we had to write down stats with a pencil, and sometimes it had no point, and we couldn’t find a sharpener
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
and the only place that sold sharpeners was ten miles away
and we had to walk there, uphill, both ways, in the snow
and we didn’t have tires, we wrapped rubber bands around wagon wheels
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
One time my dad sent me out to buy a pencil
He gave me a quarter. I bought the pencil, saw a movie, had a coke, and still brought him 15 cents change.
by BuckarooClub on Sep 16, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
lol...
I remember how we’d have to ask permission to go use those big metal grinders with the crank wheel to sharpen our pencils? Sheesh… times are changing.
Like one of these?

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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
more like this

"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
Does that come in?
A Glen Sather model?
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
no but i'm sure we can start an arts & crafts section on banter
although i don’t know why you’d want a facsimile of sather’s head on your desk
i wouldn’t even want his skull with a candle burning atop it to write by
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
I’m not all that much younger than you. Enough that we couldn’t attend high school at the same time, but it ain’t like I’m Joe.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
back in my day, thems were fightin' words
now i’m afraid i’ll throw my hip out, so instead i’ll shake my fist menacingly at you
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
by joereiter on Sep 16, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
GET OFF MY LAWN!
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
This literally made me laugh out loud at my desk. Thank God my old boss was fired, laughter would not have been tolerated.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Talking about Redden makes people loopy.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
which is an improvement
a year ago talking about redden just filled people with white-hot rage
the ARISTH movement has done much to lighten our spirits
and the alcohol hasn’t hurt either
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
by joereiter on Sep 16, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
the ARISTH movement
It started as a dream… and it has become a dream fulfilled.
The alcohol played an important role too, well done alcohol.
In Hank we trust.
When I was a kid I always wondered why all the older Ranger fans I knew drank so much
so now, at 35 and 16+ years removed from a championship, and 10+ years into the Reign of Error, I understand all too well.
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
were you talking about me?
because at 21 It’s not that I can’t understand these numbers, it’s that I’m usually drunk :)
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 16, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I was only talking about age, not comprehension. Though I thought you were 12.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
The FAQs at Behindthenethockey.com’s left sidebar is a good place to start.
by red army line on Sep 16, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks?!
At the time Dryden played, nothing was tracked (except in a few front offices). Nowadays you know (within a couple seconds per shift) exactly how long people are out there and who they are out there against, it makes things a lot easier then back then. It’s an easy jump to realize that wins come from goals…this is just the next couple of steps, where goals come from shots on goal, shots on goal come from total shots, and total shots approximate puck possession.
Anyway, this doesn’t require too much actual math, it’s just alot of reorganization of data from behindthenet.
This is just the surface, Gabe @ BTN is really doing some amazing things with his database (like determining true shooting talent) How you feel reading my stuff is how I feel reading his (though probably a little less, I have a decent enough math background)
I could have written most of this without the numbers (actually I did, then plugged in the tables and edited a couple spots where my viewpoint of things was blatantly contradicted). If you read it where the numbers are just the guide, it’s not that overwhelming. I might be biased though.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I have to admit I’m with Joe on the advanced stats. I just think don’t think they tell enough of a story to pin point players talent or potential ability, especially when it comes to defense. I wouldn’t write off all the Corsi data, but a lot of it is a tad granular. However, this post seems to be pretty self explantory, especially the Goals Against On vs. Goal Against Off, which is pretty intriguing.
As far as top 4 material goes, I’d like to see Del Zotto and Staal as the first pairing with Girardi and Rozi has the second, or any combination within those four. I think Del Zotto is only going to get better offensively and he seems to be the only guy on the team that can create offense from the blueline.
Assuming, Gilroy and Eminger make the last pairing, I think it’s going to be McDonagh who grabs the last spot and maybe even leap frogs Gilroy and Eminger. While I admit I have not seen him play, every scout I talked to thinks he’s going grab a spot on the roster.
Semenov and Excelby are past their primes, but the invitations were a nice thought.
http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/
They definitely don't tell the whole story.
I never claim they do, nor do I claim these are absolutes. They’re a baseline, just like anything any other stat. I do try to include everything that can be captured to paint most of the picture, but filling in the blanks is still left for debate, and still what I find most interesting.
We all know that Redden sucks, you can tell that easily by watching. It’s nice to know how much he sucks, and who he’s out there sucking against.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
My fear in all this
although fear is a little too strong a word, since at the end of the day it doesn’t matter really….but I have this recurring feeling that someday, somebody will start applying these metrics historically, and I’ll wake up one morning to an article about how much Wayne Gretzky sucked because his CORSI rating shows the 215 points he scored in 1986 were the product of some bizarre collection of luck or something else.
I’d say it kind of kills the joys of watching and enjoying the game, but I know it doesn’t really. I’m just a grumpy old bastard resistant to change and living in fear that the players I idolized as a kid will be outed as early-day Reddens.
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
That'd never happen.
Though even with Gretzky, his 87 and 92 goal seasons came with a spike in shooting percentage from his established career level. His established career level was just so much better than everyone else to begin with, that it made the spikes just unfathomable.
You might eventually see someone claim he was ‘lucky’ to get to 92 goals..but most guys get some luck when they establish career highs.
I’ll stop now before one of you throws your cane at me.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I mean his 50th goal in his 39th goal
Was into an empty net! They were just giving goals away to Gretzky that year.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
it's a walker, not a cane
damned whippersnapper
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
Does it have
Little tennis balls attached to the legs at the bottom? Those are the classy walkers.
In Hank we trust.
Do you think..
By the end of the year MDZ will be give top four? I know he gets his minutes on the PP, but I think, by the end of the year, he won’t be a reliability on the blueline.
did you mean liability?
I agree too that MDZ will get a shot at top 4 four mins this season if his +- doesn’t get out of hand too early on. I would support the high chance that our top 4 on opening night would likely be Rozsival Staal, Girardi MDZ. Exelby or Semenov have never proved strong enough to earn top 4 time, and I don’t think they will after camp unless MDZ really blows it, assuming if somehow one or both of them actually get signed. Eminger’s a stretch and I still like Gilroy’s game, I think it’s fair to say he just needs more time to develop on the 3rd line d pair in his 2 way game as he wasn’t able to (or given the chance to) initially demonstrate the same production of MDZ. Still, definitely getting more optimistic about this season.
ps – interesting report though george-where do you dig up the research? maybe more background info for the rest of us might be helpful? I understand what you’ve put together and watched/played hockey long enough to see where your numbers justify the level of play, just maybe more background info could help. maybe this has been discussed before, sorry I’m still kinda new here ha.
The Loneliest Ranger fan living in Philadelphia.
Stats are from behindthenet.ca.
His site explains everything much better than I ever could, but briefly; this is just normal boxscore data (shots, saves, goals, +/-) adjusted on two levels…adjusted based on who was on the ice, and adjusted for 60 minutes of ice time.
Anything that says ON/OFF means those numbers were compiled when the players was on/off the ice.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I do. Though I usually forget when I’m publishing and have to go back and edit, but his site is always credited at the bottom.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
To simplify...
The harder Redden tries to contribute further up the ice the worse he gets. That’s what makes him out of position.
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So Rob if he stayed behind the goal line the whole shift, he would be an All-Star again? :)
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Dreaden has been out of position the moment he steps on the ice. Any ice. Any where. Any time. Since the day he was anointed as “….the best 1st passer in the game….our #1 guy….”
I do remember Redden's first pre-season game
two years ago being fantastic.
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 16, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s great Joe, he played a great game against a bunch of guys now detailing cars and bagging groceries at Shop Rite.
His first preseason game was great, and he has been unable to recapture that glory.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
He had a goal and two assists
and I’m pretty sure at the time I was thinking “maybe this isn’t the worst contract ever”
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"Tortorelli sounds like a kind of pasta… an unforgiving, stubborn, chewy, flavorless pasta that demands ‘jam’ from other pastas." - Dig Deep
by Joe Fortunato on Sep 16, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
That should be
The punishment for any goalie that allows a multi-point game to Redden. No waivers, no AHL assignment, straight to “12 Items or fewer line” to a C-Town in the Bronx.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
How does Gilroy fall into the "other" category
He didn’t DAZZLE last year, but everything points to him working on the right things to improve over the summer. If the Rangers have given up on him, I don’t see why he would still be around. He’s probably one of our easiest players to move. He’s young, in the last year of his contract, and making a reasonable salary. They could have found someone to take a chance on him.
I don’t see why they would hold onto him for PAST this year, he’s a UFA after the season, it would seem sure to walk to a team who’ll give him an NHL shot if he spends the year in Hartford.
I guess we could keep him as a third pair defenseman, but his skill set doesn’t seem as well suited for that, so again, why not move him and get the space back?
Gilroy is in “other” because he’s not a new addition to camp, same as MDZ.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Smurf, I’m sure you’ve explained this before (I haven’t been on the site much during the offseason), but more interesting to me than dissecting GAA, Corsi, etc. is:
Why did you change your screen name? Who is George E. Ays?
Sorry for the non sequitur, just curious.
I got upgraded to business class
A vast majority of the authors/writers/owners of the SBN blogs use their real names, I thought it best to fit in.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
You say tomatoes, I say potatoes.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, if you don’t mind, I’ll continue to call you smurf. I resist change. Nice analysis, incidentally. I’m hoping for McDonagh as WR’s replacement, as long as it won’t screw up his development.
Yeah I don’t care. Change is hard.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
getting up to pee sixteen times a night is hard
especially when my nurse is off-duty
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
Only 16? Nice, you must take meds
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
well
there’s the anti-depressants (thanks sather), the anti-psych meds (thanks sather), the pills for heartburn (thanks redden), the blood pressure meds (thanks sather) and an antihistamine
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
CONFOOOOOOOORM
I thought it best to fit in.
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
Joe gets all HULK SMASH with the ban hammer if you don’t.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
based on his three-post earlier, he might be drunk enough to ban us all for veering slightly off-topic
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
I am the King of O-T, love a good tangent.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
What? Where am I?
And why do I have a sudden urge to ban
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by Joe Fortunato on Sep 16, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
see, now you have done it. you woke KJI Jr up.
by Michael Gleich on Sep 16, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
get to the choppa
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"Tortorelli sounds like a kind of pasta… an unforgiving, stubborn, chewy, flavorless pasta that demands ‘jam’ from other pastas." - Dig Deep
by Joe Fortunato on Sep 16, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
gilroy is also going to be an rfa, not a ufa
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
I thought he was different
Because he went through the draft as an 18 year old pre-CBA. That’s why he got a bigger contract too, isn’t it? Entry level rules didn’t appy to him.
by BuckarooClub on Sep 16, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
He's like Craig MacTavish
Skating with no “entry level helmet” cause he was gradfathered in.
by BuckarooClub on Sep 16, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
EL rules didn’t apply, but he still has to abide by the NHL service rules regarding free agency. 7 years or age 27, which ever comes first. I’m not sure when the cutoff date is, but he’s definitely an RFA, and doesn’t turn 27 until July 30th, 2011.
So it’s probably a June 1 or July 1 cutoff.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
im going to assume the cutoff is Sept 15 like it is for the draft.
by Michael Gleich on Sep 16, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
well
Redden shouldnt be on this team when the season starts
the guy was a epic bust on so many levels
Ryan McD should take his roster spot
now the offensive D man we always wanted that Redden never turned into was drafted
Del Zotto is that guy
MDZ is going to be a great player
Staal Girardi McD McIlrath those 4 guys are the future of this defense and we should start implementing younger talent into the lineup
McIlrath isnt ready idk when he will be but McD is
then on offense Grachev Stepan MZA those guys need to be implemeted too
by Archie Barberio on Sep 16, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
Someone in Toronto moaning about overpaying and overspending?
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
i stopped reading as soon as he said rozi gets 6 mil this year and 7 next year. how lazy can you be not to look up the right numbers as he gets 4 this year and 3 next.
by Michael Gleich on Sep 16, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I know
But the article is definitely the train wreck variety. He also compares a forward to a D as if forwards are the only ones that can get paid decent salaries.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 16, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
well you either pay a guy to score 30 or stop the guy who normally gets 30, ;-)
by Michael Gleich on Sep 16, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
according to capgeek, damien's correct
http://www.capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=629
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
no, check that
i pulled a damien cox
actual NHL salary in 08-09 was 7, 6 last year, then 4, then 3
i’ll go flog myself now
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
well at least i havent lost mind, yet.
by Michael Gleich on Sep 16, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
going into camp i think we have staal, girardi, rozi, mdz as the top 4 and it is wide open after that. eminger, exelby and semenov are probably all ideal for a 7th D, but that would be dependent on Gilroy and McD both being good enough to play 5, 6. i dont trust that Torts and crew have enough faith in Gilroy to not keep 2 of eminger, exelby and semenov around considering he was willing to bench Gilroy to close the year for eriksson.
by Michael Gleich on Sep 16, 2010 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
Out of the EminExelMenov combo, who would you consider the favorite?
My guess would be Exelby
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
honestly that might depend on the cap situation and what goes on up front. it could just be whomever will take the smallest deal.
by Michael Gleich on Sep 16, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
i think exelby if it is to play with gilroy, eminger to play with McD?
by Michael Gleich on Sep 16, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Eminger. Simply because he already has a contract.
Signing Exelby means McD would probably have to go down (though I haven’t looked at the list of AHL ‘veterans’)
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Good points by both of you
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
We missed you last night, we thought you would be in the chat room drunk and celebrating the Rangers finally taking your advice on Exelby.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to add a bunch of goofy stuff like “I have no idea, my head hurts,” but I wanted actual results, I was curious how it would shake out.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah – I was just adding some levity to the situation
I don’t know who the “best” option is – it might be Palentenko for all we know or Eminger – or McD. The good news is that there are lots of hungry people that will be playing for 1 or 2 spots. That can only be a good thing
Mario Marois and Scott Kleinendorst invited to camp as well.
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Grant Ledyard was also contacted, but didn’t answer the phone when the Rangers called, and doesn’t have voicemail
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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Sep 16, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
ROFL
You’re killing me…..
But you missed the guy I’d sign in a heartbeat:
of “Carol and ….” fame (link)
Lol – unfortunately couldn’t be there and couldn’t be drunk either.Oh-for-two…
I don’t know if they’ll sign him – but he’s better than an orange conical object. And I don’t even know if he’s the better of Volchenkov/Eminger or even Palentenko. At least they’re making it difficult for him (Dreaden) and more likely that we won’t have to see him much longer….
Didn’t read this until now.
It’s interesting that Exelby, and specifically Semenov, don’t have better QUALCOMPs and NET SH/60. I guess I, along with everyone else, overrated both of them because of my desire to banish Redden.
By the way, I think I’ve been right there with you saying Redden hasn’t been THAT bad, it’s just that salary that kills it. If he were signed to a deal at $2-$2.5 million, I wouldn’t be that pissed about him being on the roster.
Hey any one see Mike Hume's ESPN Blog?
“Blueshirt Banter uses advanced metrics to see how Redden’s removal will impact the defense.”
“Larry Brooks asked Redden’s agent if he’s been in contact with European teams as an alternative to Hartford, but he declined comment.”
I voted for Exelby because I feel the Rangers are in a better position to win, and go into the playoffs.
Exelby would provide a good defensive presence on the blue line, and has experience. I feel that Redden is still going to be there, but if he falters, the Rangers have several good options to promote.
Exelby is an underrated player, he’s not a top pairing guy or anything, but he hits big and positions well. He can be a bit excitable, but I think he’s in a unique position to earn a spot with the Rangers.
Exelby is certainly thought-provoking
But I tend to think that the more reliable choice (if you are after reliable) is Semenov. Exelby does add grit to the lineup and there is no mistaking that he would deliver some hits that would intimidate opposing players. Exelby is definetely an interesting choice, I don’t blame you for wanting to see him on the club because you believe he would help the Rangers the most if we make the playoffs.
Exelby does get out of position though, he has a bad reputation of going for the big hit and straying from his spot to destroy someone. Semenov reminds me of Malik and it is not just because of his height (but I admit, the height helps my comparison), Semenov is a big body that plays unremarkable hockey but more or less steady hockey. Eminger is the dark horse to me, but I feel he has less chance of making the team than Semenov and Exelby do for some reason… still my favorite in the race is McDonagh. His upside and potential make him a very sexy choice, especially early on. If he makes mistakes or isn’t ready for the NHL, there will be Exelby/Semenov/Eminger ready to relieve him or maybe compete to take some games from him when the Rangers need to shake things up.
One final thought; with Boogaard and Prust on the team do we really need more of this?
In Hank we trust.
I'm reminded of the 92-93 season
A brief recap for you youngsters, because history is forever repeating itself:
After losing the the Penguins in the Patrick Division finals in ‘92 (The Mario "oh my wrist is shattered I’ll never play again oh wait it’s fine now that Graves was suspended" series, aka the Ron fucking Francis goal from center ice on Richter series), Neil Smith decided to bulk up the roster by making some off-season additions to strengthen the depth of the team overall. The result: during the first 6 weeks of the season, a lot of guys who’d been regulars in 91-92 were suddenly finding themselves as healthy scratches to get the depth guys into the lineup. Guys like Randy Gilhen, Joe Kocur, Tie Domi, the Kings (Kris & Steven), Phil Bourque, Doug Weight, were continually dressed or scratched at random by Roger Nielson. Nielson and Smith’s comments to the press when questioned was to the effect of “We play the guys we feel give us the best chance to win on a nightly basis.”
When the team got smoked by Tampa Bay (then in its first season) at home, Messier peeled the paint off the walls in a post game press conference, ripping both Smith and Nielson by telling reporters “You win a championship by setting the roster and playing your best guys and expecting they’ll be able to beat anyone, not by dressing a tough guy for one game because you’re playing Philly and then sitting him next game in favor of a scorer because you play the Penguins.”
Not that this is 100% applicable, but I can see some similarities brewing with the defense. It was soft as tissue paper last year, and I like what Exelby would bring from the physical standpoint….but like Dig Deep says above, with Prust in the lineup, and theoretically Boogaard as well, is his presence needed?
Playing in the Atlantic, with big physical teams like Philly and New Jersey, you’d think yeah, you can never have too many guys willing to throw a hit. But that shouldn’t be the goal. I’ve harped on this before as one of the many weaknesses of the Smith era, building a team to compete with other teams rather than building a great team and forcing others to compete with yours, and I’m wondering if the thought process among some of the Exelby crowd aren’t throwing out the baby with the bathwater by advocating his physical nature when, from what I can tell from George’s charts, the hits come at the expense of positioning and opposition scoring chances.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Rangers have been dying for a big physical d-man since Beukeboom was forced to retire, and I’d love to have one, but maybe they can get somebody who’s physical enough in Semenov or McDonagh without sacrificing scoring chances the other way.
I dunno. If it comes down to a choice between Exelby and Redden, bye bye Wade….but that’d be assuming McDonagh shows he’s not ready, Valentenko doesn’t play well, Eminger has a bad camp, Semenov doesn’t play as well as he did last September…..and that’d be a whole other story.
"You can be a lion maybe once in your life. If you don't make this deal, you're a
mouse forever….Wouldn't you rather be a lion for one day than a mouse for life?"
by joereiter on Sep 17, 2010 7:46 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
D
I truly hope Gilroy and McDonough are given a chance to play quality minutes…I also think then 6th and 7th d-men are Semenov and Exelby (both add a little more size and toughness) and BOTH Roszival (trade) and Redden (waived/Hartford) are gone…let this team develop together and get better year after year and maybe we can go on a couple of deep playoff runs in the next few years

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