Some Preseason Advanced Statistics
by George E. Ays on Sep 30, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
in New York Rangers Analysis
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PrintThe Rangers' roster battles are nearing their conclusion, with four games in the books, and game 5 coming up tomorrow night against the Ottawa Senators. Normally, when I want to look at comparisons between players, I have the wealth of knowledge that comes from perusing the numbers compiled by Gabe at the Behind the Net website. It gives us seasons worth of data, and much can be concluded from the numbers there. That only gives us what the players used to do though. While that tends to be a good barometer, I wondered how the players fighting for spots have done, especially the rookies. Unfortunately, Gabe does not compile data for the preseason, presumably because preseason results don't matter in the grand scheme of things.
That doesn't mean the data is not out there to be extracted, so what I give you after the jump is a make-shift table of some typical numbers one would go to behind the net to obtain. I have gone through and highlighted both the set of players that have already been cut (in red) and the set of players that are on the roster bubble (in blue). This is purely informational, as the 15-50 minutes of ice time that the players have accumulated are not nearly enough to determine anything long term. For the short term, you can see how the coaching staff has divided up the ice time, who has been given different zone assignments, and who is generating offense. As usual, this data applies to 5v5 ice time only. The table is fully sortable, so feel free to play around with it.
| NYR | POS | PLAYER | IceTime | Raw Corsi | Corsi/60 | ES Shots | ES Shots/60 | +/- | +/-/60 | DZ Start | OZ Start | Zstart | Zstart% |
| 4 | D | DEL ZOTTO, MICHAEL | 33.583 | -7 | -12.506 | 4 | 7.146 | 0 | 0.000 | 9 | 6 | -3 | 40.00% |
| 5 | D | GIRARDI, DAN | 31.050 | -10 | -19.324 | 0 | 0.000 | -4 | -7.729 | 7 | 3 | -4 | 30.00% |
| 8 | L | PRUST, BRANDON | 28.650 | -10 | -20.942 | 1 | 2.094 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 50.00% |
| 10 | R | GABORIK, MARIAN | 37.183 | -15 | -24.204 | 2 | 3.227 | -3 | -4.841 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 46.15% |
| 12 | C | WHITE, TODD | 36.917 | -24 | -39.007 | 2 | 3.251 | -3 | -4.876 | 12 | 6 | -6 | 33.33% |
| 13 | L | KENNEDY, TIM | 34.283 | -6 | -10.501 | 3 | 5.250 | 0 | 0.000 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 52.63% |
| 16 | L | AVERY, SEAN | 34.333 | -6 | -10.485 | 9 | 15.728 | 2 | 3.495 | 9 | 6 | -3 | 40.00% |
| 17 | C | DUBINSKY, BRANDON | 24.483 | 3 | 7.352 | 1 | 2.451 | -2 | -4.901 | 9 | 2 | -7 | 18.18% |
| 18 | D | STAAL, MARC | 28.983 | -11 | -22.772 | 1 | 2.070 | -1 | -2.070 | 9 | 5 | -4 | 35.71% |
| 19 | L | FEDOTENKO, RUSLAN | 38.533 | 1 | 1.557 | 5 | 7.785 | 0 | 0.000 | 14 | 9 | -5 | 39.13% |
| 22 | C | BOYLE, BRIAN | 15.217 | -12 | -47.317 | 2 | 7.886 | 1 | 3.943 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.00% |
| 24 | R | CALLAHAN, RYAN | 21.950 | -8 | -21.868 | 4 | 10.934 | -1 | -2.733 | 8 | 5 | -3 | 38.46% |
| 25 | D | SEMENOV, ALEXEI | 39.700 | -6 | -9.068 | 4 | 6.045 | 1 | 1.511 | 9 | 8 | -1 | 47.06% |
| 26 | C | CHRISTENSEN, ERIK | 36.333 | -5 | -8.257 | 4 | 6.606 | -1 | -1.651 | 10 | 4 | -6 | 28.57% |
| 28 | D | EXELBY, GARNET | 13.200 | -14 | -63.636 | 0 | 0.000 | -2 | -9.091 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 28.57% |
| 31 | L | FROLOV, ALEXANDER | 36.833 | -7 | -11.403 | 7 | 11.403 | -3 | -4.887 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 57.14% |
| 32 | R | WEISE, DALE | 16.683 | -8 | -28.771 | 1 | 3.596 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 57.14% |
| 33 | D | ROZSIVAL, MICHAL | 28.950 | -10 | -20.725 | 1 | 2.073 | 1 | 2.073 | 12 | 7 | -5 | 36.84% |
| 34 | L | BYERS, DANE | 12.867 | -4 | -18.653 | 0 | 0.000 | -1 | -4.663 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 33.33% |
| 36 | C | ZUCCARELLO, MATS | 23.000 | -1 | -2.609 | 4 | 10.435 | -2 | -5.217 | 6 | 2 | -4 | 25.00% |
| 38 | D | SAUER, MIKE | 41.033 | -13 | -19.009 | 2 | 2.924 | 1 | 1.462 | 13 | 9 | -4 | 40.91% |
| 42 | C | ANISIMOV, ARTEM | 30.400 | -4 | -7.895 | 4 | 7.895 | 1 | 1.974 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 69.23% |
| 44 | D | EMINGER, STEVE | 18.333 | -3 | -9.818 | 1 | 3.273 | -2 | -6.545 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 50.00% |
| 45 | C | NEWBURY, KRIS | 10.850 | 2 | 11.060 | 1 | 5.530 | -1 | -5.530 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 75.00% |
| 46 | D | VALENTENKO, PAVEL | 46.600 | -11 | -14.163 | 2 | 2.575 | 0 | 0.000 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 52.94% |
| 51 | D | MCDONAGH, RYAN | 33.267 | -2 | -3.607 | 2 | 3.607 | 0 | 0.000 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 53.85% |
| 57 | C | STEPAN, DEREK | 36.867 | -9 | -14.647 | 8 | 13.020 | 0 | 0.000 | 10 | 7 | -3 | 41.18% |
| 59 | C | GRACHEV, EVGENY | 23.567 | -2 | -5.092 | 1 | 2.546 | 1 | 2.546 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 37.50% |
| 86 | R | WILLIAMS, JEREMY | 11.017 | -6 | -32.678 | 1 | 5.446 | -1 | -5.446 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 40.00% |
| 94 | L | BOOGAARD, DEREK | 26.433 | -17 | -38.588 | 1 | 2.270 | 1 | 2.270 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 45.45% |
| 97 | D | GILROY, MATT | 45.500 | -12 | -15.824 | 1 | 1.319 | 1 | 1.319 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.00% |
Definitions:
IceTime: Total 5v5 ice time. Raw Corsi: Shots directed at net for while on Ice minus shots directed at net against while on ice. Corsi/60: Raw Corsi per 60 minutes of ice time. ES Shots: Shots on Goal by player @ 5v5. ES Shots/60: Shots on Goal per 60 minutes of ice time. +/- per 60: +/- per 60 minutes of ice time. DZ Start: Times on ice for defensive zone faceoff. OZ Start: Times on ice for offensive zone faceoff. ZStart: Differential between OZ Start and DZ Start. ZStart%: % of time starting in offensive zone.
Stats courtesy of NHL.com.
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The Corsi numbers
Are for ES or 5v5 ice time? If so, Rangers have been getting outshot big time 5v5.
Does Todd White know where the other net is?
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 30, 2010 9:24 AM EDT reply actions
Everything’s 5v5.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 30, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll it say again
Todd White we barely knew ye.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 30, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
And good god
A defense full of Exelby’s would burn out any goalie by the end of pre-season.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 30, 2010 9:33 AM EDT reply actions
Stepan
Being second in ES Shots/60 surprises me, I think it is a good sign from a kid who has been touted as a playmaker.
In Hank we trust.
Avery having a bunch of ES shots
Is a good sign too. I think he’ll get the bulk of his playing time at ES, but with his effectiveness at creating noise in front of the net I could see him getting some PP time too (2nd unit).
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 30, 2010 10:38 AM EDT reply actions
I agree, I’d like him to do the dirty work in front of the net and see some powerplay time. Some new looks on the powerplay, especially when it seems to hit a wall, would be a good idea.
If Avery is smart he’ll keep peppering the net with shots, he does have a pretty damn good shot.
In Hank we trust.
It helps to play against a lot of AHL guys.
by NTB on Sep 30, 2010 11:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Small sample size and preseason disclaimer applies but...
Dubinsky is right around where we’d expect him to be for Corsi/60
And look at who’s keeping him company: Grachev, McDonagh, and Anisimov. I haven’t had a chance to watch much preseason, but this definitely makes me feel a tiny bit better about the future of the team.
Of course, who knows what’s going on with Gaborik and Staal near the bottom for Corsi/60 [thankfully still above the expected black holes]. I would guess that with only 2 ES shots, Gaborik is taking the preseason to work on other facets of his and his linemates’ game…
its Torts matching up first lines. While Gabby and Fro have played well, you have to question matching them up vs Parise-Zajac_Kovi, Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holstrom. They looked much better yesterday vs Bertuzzi-Filppula-Franzen.
I don't think Torts is one for matching lines
But I wouldn’t mind seeing a line with Drury or Callahan matched up against the other team’s to line. They definitely need to exploit mismatches with Gaborik and Frolov, especially at home, because I think the 1st line is going to do a lot of the heavy lifting.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 30, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly right.
When you play against Parise, Datsyuk and Zetterberg, you’re going to get murdered. You just hope the bleeding isn’t too bad.
Camp Torturella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
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by George E. Ays on Sep 30, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Devils just look good on paper
It’s more important to have your top defense on the ice against either of those lines. Staal/Girardi would have a much easier time shutting down those lines. Staal Girardi kept Ovi to a few shots and from bad angles. Remember it is only preseason. We haven’t fielded our best vs their best yet. Let’s wait until 20 games in if we do our mid season swan dive before we start getting scared of the Devils. The Devils have more points at the end of the season because of consistent night in night out play not because they are a better team. That is proven the last three post seasons with the Devils no show.
by Leetch4prezofNYR on Sep 30, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Disagree
The Devils have a strategy that wins games, but they also have a team that’s been more talented than the Rangers recently
How can you say that when we consistently have the Devils number.
Avery will frustrate Kovi and Clarkson.
Hepatitus (Elias) is hit or miss he has 4 more points than Duby in 10 less games last year with playing on the top lines for the Devils . He’s also 34 that’s like ancient in dog years.
Chico and Doc even mentioned that the Devils will be trying a run and gun with Kovi on the team which leaves Fatso exposed for the first time. Since the Scotts left, the Devils defense IMOHO has been overratted. they have a strategy that works but it keeps getting shuffled year to year and the pieces they have this year don’t fit their typical mold.
Ilya is overrated with 30 Goals/season in the SE. Let’s see how he does in the toughest division in the NHL. Does some one have statistics for Kovi against the top 10 teams in the league?
Brodeur just hasn’t been the same since Avery gave him the jazz hands treatment. Look at the playoffs or Olympics.
Clarkson is just like Avery except he gets pissed at Avery, not getting Gabby pissed at him.
Zajac while talented is not Messier or crysby, see how well an inconsistent Christensen did for his numbers playing with Gabby. Both are talented, Zajac is just consistent.
Parise is a hockey god and I’ve said that since he came up.
Did I miss someone I should be scared of?
Maybe we just match up well with the Devs but their record against the Rangers hasn’t been that great even though they lead the Atlantic every year.
by Leetch4prezofNYR on Sep 30, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't draw a full impression based on the 6 games
Because in the other 76 games of the season the Devils tend to play better.
As dar9898 said, they have a strategy and system that they players commit themselves to and execute very well. Beyond the ZIP line, they do have either older players like Elias/Arnott/Rolston/Langs or players that have shown promise but not quite solidified as bona fide threats.
I think this works against them in the playoffs, when playing the same opponent night after night, they eventually figure out how to beat their system.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Sep 30, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. Just haven’t been scared of the Devils since after the first year of the lockout. They are always tough close games but the Ranger talent hasn’t really been there the last couple of years so my logic is if the Rangers are a tied team with the Devils head to head, regardless of who wins (puck takes a bounce and there is the game), then the Devils really aren’t more talented just more consistent over the course of a season. If the talent isn’t there, then the playoffs show their true colors. There is a logic statement in there somewhere.
Until this year, I saw raw talent in the Rangers without consistency. Maybe with some maturity on the younger players the consistency can be there and we can compete for top 4 in the East same as the Devils.
by Leetch4prezofNYR on Sep 30, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah like i said I haven’t seen much preseason. Has Tortorella been consistently matching his top 5 against the opponents’ top lines @ ES?
Not on Defense. Did match Gabby vs Parise I believe.
by Leetch4prezofNYR on Sep 30, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Basically.
Gaborik drew both big units, and will all season.
Girardi-Staal definitely have the ZIP line in the 1st game, they haven’t played together since. Staal got 1st line last night, but I can’t name the 3 1st line Red Wings.
Expect power vs power again from Torts though.
Camp Torturella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
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by George E. Ays on Sep 30, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
it was franzen, bertuzzi, hudler i believe
by Michael Gleich on Sep 30, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Conclusions?
So George, based on these numbers you’ve compiled, who you would you keep with the club? (Let’s assume for the sake of the discussion that Sauer isn’t traded…)
Remembering again that small samples are small
I think White and Boyle clearly got outplayed by the forwards remaining everyone left. That they played with Booger didn’t help, but other guys played with Boog who didn’t get murdered worse than him.
I don’t think you can take anything of worth out of the defense numbers. McDonagh and Sauer have been the best it would seem, but it’s so close that you’d want competition levels to really compare, and while I could do it, I don’t really want to sacrifice sleep to compile it. I honestly don’t think they can really go wrong here, any of the 4 in the 6/7 slots will suffice.
From a business standpoint, I would keep Eminger and Sauer (b/c of waivers), and be prepared to trade or drop them if they don’t give you what you expect after the first 10-15 games. If they want to keep McD up, trade Eminger and keep McD/Sauer.
Camp Torturella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Sep 30, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Corsi needs to get missed shots of the equation….a missed shot often occurs from good defensive positioning, not sure why it’s in there
http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/
Because even if you’re allowing missed shots, it means you’re in your own end, and not in the opposing end. Corsi is used best as an approximation of puck possession, so it needs to encompass everything.
Camp Torturella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Oct 1, 2010 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I get all that, I just find some many variables with this stuff.
http://thehockeysuit.blogspot.com/
There are many variables in all statistics.
Saying someone had a 20-goal season doesn’t tell you anything more than saying someone had a positive Corsi number.
They’re puzzle pieces. By themselves, they’re little pieces of cardboard. Together, they create a decent part of the picture. Then you combine that part with the part of the picture that you observe, and you get a pretty darn good idea of how a player has done.
It sounds really dopey, but that’s the goal…to give a part of the picture that doesn’t contain the bias, be it emotional, confirmation, or otherwise.
Camp Torturella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
Blueshirt Banter - "ARISTH"-Assuming Redden is sent to Hartford
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Oct 1, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
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