NHL Trade Deadline 2011: Scouting the Atlanta Thrashers
Continuing the series of trade deadline scouting, next up is the Atlanta Thrashers. The Thrash are in a bit of a perplexing situation. They're not quite sellers but also not quite buyers. Currently sitting in the last playoff spot, they are in a trade deadline gray area that normally ends with standing pat and not committing either way. However, the decision to be a buyer or seller for GM Rick Dudley isn't nearly as pressing as it has been for his counterparts in similar situations. The Thrashers do not have a big ticket player with an expiring contract who is likely to leave (think Jay Bouwmeester a few years back) so they can afford to wait it out and see where they are come February 28th.
The next few weeks will in all likelihood determine what the Thrashers next move is. If they play well and are in contention, expect them to be buyers. If they soil themselves and fall back a bit they may be sellers. Keep in mind though, it is going to be easier for Dudley to commit to buying than selling. He has a struggling franchise with a largely disinterested fanbase that he needs to rejuvenate. Selling off assets may send the wrong signal even if it's the correct hockey decision.
With that said, the Thrashers do have some interesting pieces to potentially offer:
Nik Antropov: He was a productive player in his short stay with the Rangers picking up 13 points in 18 games when he was traded by the Toronto Maple Leafs. As expected, Antropov bolted to the highest bidder where he was united with Ilya Kovalchuk for half a season. He likely won't be available at the deadline, even though his contract is probably going to pose a problem in a year or two. Nevertheless, it's fair to say lets steer clear.
Brent Sopel: Perfectly fits the bill as a veteran defenseman. He's fresh off of a Stanley Cup Championship with the Blackhawks and has the past NHL playoff experience that the Rangers d-corps is lacking. I've already outlined why Sopel would be a good fit: he's affordable, has an expiring contract, and has playoff experience. Dudley has already shipped off Ben Eager for a draft pick and I wouldn't be surprised if he did the same with Sopel (even if the Thrashers are still in that trade deadline gray area I talked about earlier). Sopel gets the stamp of approval.
Eric Boulton: He's only being mentioned because there is still a small contingent of people who'd like to see the Rangers replace Derek Boogaard. But punches and body slams aren't going to get the Rangers to the dance.
Nigel Dawes: He's been tearing up the AHL... Just kidding..
Ron Hainsey: I'm sure Dudley would love to move Hainsey and his fat contract, but I'm sure there won't be many (if any) takers.
Fredrik Modin: He's an option only if the Rangers injury woes continue. Owns an expiring contract and would come on the cheap. But I'd rather see Chad Kolarik get that ice time if need be. A case could be made for him in that scenario though.
Dustin Byfuglien: Probably the trade of the year, where the hell was Sather on this one? Face palm.
Rich Peverley: Timmy of Birdwatcher's Anonymous advocated trading Peverley while his value is high:
"If you only trade disposable players, you never get much in return. There are always tradeoffs. Peverley is a VERY CHEAP top-6 center. We might be budget-sensitive, but most other teams are near the cap. Any team looking to add production in the playoffs will be hoping for a guy just like Peverley."
Peverley is signed for an additional year at an extremely reasonable cap hit of $1,325,000. His cap hit is where his value lies, it's dirt cheap for a 55 point payer. Had Brian Boyle and Derek Stepan not proved to be reliable centers, an argument could have been made for Pevereley at the deadline. However if the Rangers get skunked on Richards, he's a viable trade target this summer.
Best Options: Sopel, Peverley (more for this summer though) and Modin (if the injuries continue to mount)
Agree? Disagree? Feel free to email me canyonofblueshirts (at) gmail.com.
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I had the same reaction initially..but they would still have players available even if they’re not sellers persay. Guys like Antropov or Dawes are probably gettable without giving up much more than fringe-NHL talent, and would provide depth to teams looking for such a thing.
I don’t think the Rangers are one of those teams, but in the interests of thoroughness, it’s worth kicking the tires at least.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 31, 2011 9:18 AM EST up reply actions
George, every possibility is worth asking, IMO. This idea that fans opine on “possible” deals is funny because we don’t know what’s said among the GMs. All it takes is one GM to think that a player has value or potential and a deal could be struck for any player or players.
Nobody saw the rosi for wolski deal coming, which proves the gms are always talking and usually about payers the fans are not talking about
by GAThingy on Jan 31, 2011 6:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
They very well could be, a lot can happen between now and the 28th. Even if they’re on the fringe, I don’t see Dudley keeping Sopel.
"We play them a few more times this year"
- Brian Boyle
by John Merrigan on Jan 31, 2011 9:47 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
then he could be a nice cheap rental. i still say McCabe for our extra 2nd rounder. he should be ok in a few weeks. they need a PP QB (sorry George, lol) to compete. they could make noise as the Flyers are the only eastern team the Rangers have consistent trouble with.
So are you in favor of trading a pick for McCabe to increase the chances of beating Boston and increasing our chances against Philly, although not nearly making us a favorite in this series. Basically it will increase our noise but not make us anywhere near as talented.
I would rather have the pick, take a chance with the guys we have, and enjoy whatever noise we are capable of making. We need more than McCabe to go anywhere significant.
yes, we have 2 2nd rounders and I believe the Rangers can beat anyone in the conference if healthy but they need a PP badly. other than Philly, who can’t we beat? I think a McCabe rental fits perfectly into staying the course but trying to do something this year.
by Richter1994 on Jan 31, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
id prefer sopel over mccabe
sopel will cost less and won’t be recovering from a broken jaw. the goal would be to increase your chances without giving up anything of significance this trade deadline. that means small, creative moves.
"We play them a few more times this year"
- Brian Boyle
by John Merrigan on Jan 31, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
John they need a PP. to me that’s the #1 need this year. next year’s #1 need is a #1 center. it will be very tough in the playoffs without a PP. I think the D they have are good enough defensively.
by Richter1994 on Jan 31, 2011 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
agreed they need a PP QB
but a second round pick isn’t worth 20 something games of Bryan McCabe. Keep in mind, the guys on the shelf right now with a broken jaw and might not even be able to be traded at the deadline. Torts has given some hints that Del Zotto is going to be the guy on the point
"We play them a few more times this year"
- Brian Boyle
by John Merrigan on Jan 31, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps health also heals the powerplay.
by GAThingy on Jan 31, 2011 6:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
it seems to me
That the thrash and rangers are in very similar waters concerning trades. Its my opinion that if the rangers get all of their bodies back and they don’t fall off the face of the earth, then they should stand pat unless we get that one deal that makes sense all around (NOT richards, wait till july)
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by Kevin Power on Jan 31, 2011 7:51 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Have to agree...
Assume the season ended much like it looks today. We would face Boston, a winnable 1st round series(if Thomas comes back to Earth). Would a Sopel, or Peverly, or any singular, potentially AVAILABLE player make us so much better that we could expect to get past Philly in the 2nd round? Would it be worthwhile to trade for a short term contract just to possibly win 1 round, maybe compete for a 2nd round?
Unless we are talking about making deals for players that make us truly cup contenders, or for players that could be a long-term contributors I’d prefer to move our “expendable” players for picks. Sopel and Pelley aren’t what I’m interested in right now.
agreed, just said basically the same thing on another blog.
If we do something it should be for someone that can make a big impact…Richards, Parise, Weber, etc. type of players.
Otherwise, as you, I don’t see any smaller addition being the one to get us over the hump named Philly.
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jan 31, 2011 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Sopel, could work but really, is it necessary? Would he make that much of an impact to give up any assets? I would rather hold on to them to make a trade that will actually make a long term difference (if one presents itself). To me its either stand pat or shoot like you want to score…dont just dump it in.
But his wife might be happy. http://lifeofahockeywidow.typepad.com/
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jan 31, 2011 8:29 AM EST reply actions
Don't the Thrashers
Need help on D more than scoring? I don’t know if they’d want to subtract vet D if they’re still in it. Longer term they have some good pieces back there but I think they’d prefer to keep Sopel.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 8:52 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Stand pat
As most of us here agreed at the start of the season, this year wasn’t going to be when it all came together for the Blueshirts. Give the young guys another year together to grow into a contender. We’ll add pieces from the Whalepack as they get ready – don’t sell the farm for a one and done!
On a separate note, when does Parise’s contract expire? I know he’s a RFA, but I’d love to see the Rangers put a qualifying offer on him for two reasons – 1 he’s a perfect fit for our system and can bury the puck and 2 – even if we don’t get him, we can screw the Devils even more with their cap mess.
Manning lobs it, Burress alone, touchdown New York!
For the empty net, Mark Messier... do you believe it?! Do you believe it?! He said we will win game 6 - he has just picked up the hat trick!
Parise's contract is up after the year.
The compensation for signing Parise to an offer sheet is going to be at least two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd round pick, but more likely the 4-1sts level.
He’s obviously a stud, but I don’t believe that he’s worth that price tag.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 31, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
Wow
Didn’t realize the compensation level was that much. Thanks for the scoop.
Manning lobs it, Burress alone, touchdown New York!
For the empty net, Mark Messier... do you believe it?! Do you believe it?! He said we will win game 6 - he has just picked up the hat trick!
Would you trade a combo of guys like Kreider, MDZ, 1st round pick and other assets for his RFA rights? Almost 99% sure that the Devils would never do that deal since the Rangers and Devils have never traded and it would burn Lou for eternity to deal Parise to the Rangers above any other team.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
I would not. Right now I think Kreider must be the only untouchable prospect we have.
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jan 31, 2011 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn’t either, I mean realistically if you take the combined projections of Kreider and Del Zotto, even without the 1st round pick, Parise would have to put up a steady stream of 80-90 point seasons for at least the next 4-5 years to make it worth it. He might be able to do so, but his cap hit plus the assets you’re giving up almost never make it worth it.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly. Cheap talent as the man said below. Lets squeeze out every last bit of talent before they cash in the big bucks and send them to the Devils for crazy money. How’s that for an alternative reality?
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jan 31, 2011 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
I think we’re done squeezing whatever useful hockey out of Drury. I mean Lou did sign Rolston and Holik and then trade for Arnott. Not to mention he still employs Elias and Brodeur. I think Drury fits the bill.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
cheap talent is key folks
"We play them a few more times this year"
- Brian Boyle
by John Merrigan on Jan 31, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
It is, but you still need top-end talent.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 31, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
yeah but if you can lock up your top-end talent before they get paid like top-end talent then you have a better shot.
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jan 31, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
BTW
Without re-signing a single FA, the Devils will have only 14 players under contract for next year and about $50M in cap space already allocated. Almost half their D and a backup goalie are due to become FAs along with at least 1 line of forwards. If they sign Parise they will have to go bargain bin on the rest of their team or bury a bunch of vets in the minors and probably be on the wrong end of some lopsided trades to give themselves enough breathing room.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
I’ve tried workig their cap for next year and it’s no easy task. I’m surprised nobody is really talking about of bad of a situation they’re in
"We play them a few more times this year"
- Brian Boyle
by John Merrigan on Jan 31, 2011 11:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think they’ll try really hard to either shop Elias or maybe pull a Redden on Colin White. They’re in a big catch 22 either way.
If they do re-sign Parise they’re in a huge cap squeeze. If they don’t they’re still in a bit of cap trouble and they have to make up for his void.
Then the next year down the road they’ll have Brodeur’s situation to deal with. No one really knows if there’s a clear successor. Obviously the replacement will be a drop off, but they’ve gone with mostly journeymen as his backup for years. Anyone from their system is going to get thrown into deep end immediately.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
They’ve got way more bad contracts than just White. Salvador, Zubrus, Rolston are all painful. Even the Volchenkov deal is pretty brutal for a 1-way defenseman.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 31, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
They’d only have to pay White one more year to ride the buses (ditto for Salvador). They will need to keep players at the NHL roster just to field a team. I guess they could just write off next year and say they’re letting contracts unwind and breaking in kids, but Marty might consider retiring by the end of October if that’s the case.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Much as I like Kreider, it is hard to see a player averaging less than a point a game in college as “untouchable”, especially if a proven and reasonably young player like Parise is involved.
I’m not a huge College watcher but I am pretty sure BU rolls 4 lines pretty consistently. So less ice time for Krieder and hard to judge him by just points.
He has done very well in other opportunities outside college.
by Blueshirt in Paris on Jan 31, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Pass
Parkas is close to being very expensive, cheap talent is key in this league
"We play them a few more times this year"
- Brian Boyle
by John Merrigan on Jan 31, 2011 10:34 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Stupid auto correct
"We play them a few more times this year"
- Brian Boyle
by John Merrigan on Jan 31, 2011 10:36 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I thought 4 1sts kicks in at about $7.7 million
And that 2 1sts, plus a 2nd and 3rd kicks in at about $6.1 million. Which would allow the Rangers to sign Parise to a $6 million contract and only give up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Which would definitely be worth it. Even if it’s 2 1sts plus 2nd and 3rd it would probably be worthwhile.
The compensation is based on the number of years of the deal, up to 5. So if they signed him to say, 6 years, $36m ($6m cap hit), the compensation is based on 5/36 ($7.2m) I’d think the Devils match 5/$30 pretty quickly, assuming Parise would sign it in the first place.
So in order to get a deal that he would sign and the Devils won’t match, you have to get into the really expensive levels, IMO
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by George E. Ays on Jan 31, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
How many
More years does Parise have before reaching UFA? Is there any sort of common denominator as to how much of a “discount” a team typically gets when they buy out a couple of years of UFA? Or does the amount they overpay for RFA years offset any savings on UFA years?
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
He turns 27 in July, so this is his last RFA year. Teams don’t typically overpay for RFA years. In fact usually the RFA contract represents, on average, roughly a 40% discount on what the player could get as a UFA.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 31, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Ok, I was thinking of deals that bridge the RFA and UFA years. So let’s say a player gets a deal that pay $6M a year. That might be a bit of a premium for an RFA year but a discount to a UFA year. Or does that not really happen too often?
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jan 31, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Sopel or Peverly would be nice
but did the Rangers have a shot at Buff? imagine if we got that dude
would of got a boner
by Archie Barberio on Jan 31, 2011 12:26 PM EST reply actions
If It was possible, get Byfugelin
I would do Byfugelin for Gilroy and DelZotto or something along those lines. It won’t work, but its worth an offer.
i would give up a ridiculous amount for buff, but id have to think hes as close to untradeable as you can get.
"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
LET'S GO RANGERS!!!
Good analysis John, I like these pieces of yours. It is interesting to think of possible trading partners with the deadline less than a month away now.
Sopel would be an interesting idea, he could probably be had too.Sopel and Peverley reside comfortably within the realm of realistic trade targets. I sometimes grow weary of people proposing trades for guys like Byfuglien (who would never get traded) and Shea Weber (who we’d have to give up damn near everything to get)… it is nice to look at realistic targets and aim for some key smaller role players that would help this team in the homestretch for the playoffs.
Nice work. Keep these coming.
@DigDeepNYR
"I like a man who grins when he fights." -Sir Winston Churchill
"It's just pain." -Brandon Prust | "In Prust we Trust."
I don’t think weber is that crazy under the one assumption that he will ask to be paid more than Nashville, a team with a strict budget, can pay him. We have at least 3 solid almost sure thing NHL D prospects on top of already having the youngest, and yet an able, defense in the league. Why not use those prospects for a game changing player. I think we are on the right path, probably a year or two away, but if you can add weber and at worst sacrifice gilrpy and a few D prospects and then have Weber, Staal, Girardi, McD, Sauer, and Del Z why wouldn’t you? If Nashville can’t fit him in the budget few teams have the combo of young D and prospects that we have…
by bwl1 on Jan 31, 2011 7:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Nashville named him their captain very recently. That in and of itself, is a major statement about what the club’s intentions are with their All-Star defenseman who also happens to be 25 years old and an RFA.
Is it impossible? No, not at all. Is it probable? Absolutely not. Nashville is strapped for cash but they are also not going to let the best thing about their team go without getting a lot in return for him. I think they will be willing to pay Weber and hold onto him instead of taking a handful of good or even great prospects for him. Players like him are pretty rare. Don’t get me wrong I would love for him to be a Ranger, I just don’t see it happening.
@DigDeepNYR
"I like a man who grins when he fights." -Sir Winston Churchill
"It's just pain." -Brandon Prust | "In Prust we Trust."
Did you do or plan to do a piece on Buffalo? Word it they might be looking to move a few players.
Connolly should be on the block as well as a UFA this summer. What is your take on him? Is he a plan-b option if we can open up cap space or get Richards?
Obviously injuries, declining stats and declining playing time need to be mentioned.
by Blueshirt in Paris on Feb 1, 2011 5:02 AM EST reply actions




























