Rangers Analysis: Marian Gaborik On Track For Rebound Season?
Two games are simply not enough to completely analyze a player and project the type of season he will have. In those two games, however, there are some indications that can be picked up on that may suggest there will be change in a player's game from one season to the next. From a Rangers standpoint, not many players have shown those early indications, but one individual that has is forward Marian Gaborik.
We all know that Gaborik was the victim of a severe slump in 2010-11 in comparison to his first season on Broadway, so there's no need to get into the details there. Slump or no slump, last season is now behind us and Marian Gaborik is still an elite talent in the National Hockey League. Therefore, the expectations placed on Marian have not changed from when he first signed in New York two years ago, especially now since the Blueshirts went out and acquired his desired first line center in Brad Richards over the summer.
Based on what I've seen from the Slovakian Sniper sofar this year, in both the preseason and the regular season, Marian is on the right track to returning to form. From the start of training camp, Gaborik has been a standout among his fellow teammates, as he should be. He's looked faster, he is more confident with the puck and most importantly, he is shooting and shooting often. He received tremendous accolades from head coach John Tortorella throughout training camp, and deservedly so.
Whatever the case was with Gaborik a year ago, he simply was not himself, and I had this conversation with many readers a countless number of times as the season went on. He wasn't showing that explosive speed or his prolific wrist shot. It just all wasn't there for Marian, and he'll be the first one to tell you that. Again, it's difficult to pinpoint an exact reason as to why he struggled so much, but the fact of the matter is that he's now looking like a changed player and ready to be the player he was in 2009-10.
Through two games, Marian's first line has not played all that well, but that's not his fault at all. Actually, despite his line not looking in sync, I think Gaborik has looked just fine. He's registered six shots in two games, one of which made it's way to the back of the net in Friday's season opener, and is fourth among Ranger forwards in ice time.
He's looked stronger along the boards and is definitely quicker than he was a year ago. What I've been most impressed with, though, has been his control of the puck and also his battle level. A lot of times last season you would see Marian carelessly play with the puck, have it stripped and then give up on the play. This season, he is very protective of the biscuit and if he does lose it, he works very hard to get it back. That's something the coach has to be enjoying every time he sees.
Now imagine if Gaborik can eventually get on the same page as Brad Richards and those two begin to click. Like I’ve said over and over again, Gaborik doesn’t need Richards in order to succeed because he is an All-Star in his own right, but the boost he’d get from having a set-up man in Richie would be an amazing thing to watch. It would most definitely broaden his statistics as well, and with a player as skilled as Marian, numbers are always a big focus.
Now I reinforce the point that two games is by no means an ethical example as to what to expect from a player for the season, but considering the strong training camp and preseason Gaborik had, and now seeing him carry that into the regular season to this point, there's something there that should give Marian and fans alike some hope. Hope that he will turn the page on a down season last year and focus on re-establishing himself as a dynamic sniper in 2010-11. That same sniper that buried 42 goals in his first season as a Ranger.
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Now I reinforce the point that two games is by no means an ethical example as to what to expect from a player for the season…
I will then. As long as Gaborik keeps shooting, he will score more goals simply because his shooting percentage was below average last year. Did he lose his talent? I doubt it. He’s shooting just slightly above his money zone through two games (16.7%) – I expect him to keep this general form.
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What is career shooting%
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by Kevin Power on Oct 13, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
14-15%
Thats where I expect him to land – which would still be above his career average (as Eric pointed out) but given that he should be able to shoot more with Richards I don’t think thats out of line.
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In the main story…improper iuse of the word ethical. Ethics has nothing to do with evaluating performance/talent in pro sports.
by GAThingy on Oct 13, 2011 1:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sure it does. Is it ethical to shoot down a player because of a two game performance?
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by Nick Montemagno on Oct 13, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
he’s right – its misuse. If you said, “It would be unethical to fully evaluate Gaborik on just two games…”, that would be one thing (which is what you’ve suggested above). But you’ve used ‘ethical’ in reference to the sample size of two games, which doesn’t work. You can use the word there, just need to rearrange the sentence so that ethical refers to the evaluation, not the sample size of two games. Sorry some of us are so nit-picky.
Agreed, Gabby looks like the one we all know and love so far…
by CrazyRangerFan on Oct 13, 2011 12:39 PM EDT reply actions
Considering his tough summer, he could gave extra motivation to do well as a tribute to his departed friends (rip)
Just a hunch. Mind you, i havent had enough coffee yet lol
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by BleedsRangerBlue on Oct 13, 2011 1:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I kind of feel like in general, there’s just a higher set of expectations (but also higher enthusiasm/energy) with Richards on the team, and Gabby knows there’s no slacking off this season. Dare I say he may even be a bit more motivated/inspired as well.
Storybook Ending
I want to see an interview with him. I wanna know how he got beefed up. he was kind of skinny last year. This year he looked ready to kick ass. Maybe he took out all his depression from the tragedies in the weight room. It would be one hell of a storybook if they win the cup. Slump Season – Tragic off season – strength to win for his loved ones who will be missed – great cup achievement. I think if he continues to do well and at least shows effort cough cough EC cough cough then i think Marian Gaborik deserves to get this cup this year or definitely next.
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by -19-AgainstAll on Oct 13, 2011 3:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I have to believe he was playing through pain and injury last year.....
……these players make millions of dollars to do what they do. They shouldn’t need any more motivation than that to show up and give 100%. Oh and wanting to win the Stanley Cup since they were old enough to say the words….this is the motivation.
Gaborik definitely did put on muscle weight over the summer; he looks a lot stronger and more confident.
But I would be willing to bet he played through injuries last year, because he was invisible through large chunks of the 2010-2011 season. I can’t believe he simply lost interest in playing for the New York Rangers and didn’t try hard enough; now a couple of his closest friends died so suddenly he’s a beast on the ice? I seriously hope that is not the case.
We don’t need to be paying millions of dollars to a guy who only shows up once every other season, and I don’t think Gaborik lacks motivation. I truly think he was hurt, and is now healthy.
It wouldn’t surprise me in the least. When one of your deadliest weapons is an explosive shot and you suffer a shoulder injury it certainly has to hamper things. I remember I was at a preseason game last year against the Devils where he certainly looked to be the same as he was his first season in NY. He won the game on an absolute snipe from the high slot. Then he got injured and most of his goals the rest of the way seemed to be from extremely close range. He still had quick hands, but the D no longer had to respect his wicked wrister. When Gaborik’s shooting is going right he fires off shots that goalies have either a hard time picking up or they aren’t able to cleanly handle. Hopefully he fills the net with aplomb this year.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Oct 13, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
apolmb
we already slaughtered “ethical” earlier…..please leave “aplomb” alone…….
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You can see the energy is there
he likes unseen all the time last season. I know we’re only two games into the season, but I energy and motive like I see thus far. he looks more sure of himself as well. In practice, he needs a little more work on his passing; but otherwise, two games in, I am very pleased with him.
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Shooting Percentage
Does it really matter when we talk about individual players? Gaborik is our best player and purest scorer. If he took ten shots a game and managed to score 1 goal would you be upset because his shooting percentage is at 10% which is below average.
Devils last year had the lowest shooting percentage as a team shooting 7.5%. Obviously that’s pretty bad, but they were bottom of the barrel taking shots for a game averaging 28.6 which got them 5th worst in the league. My point is if they are shooting more they are going to score more, so why should it matter what their shooting percentage is? Does this stat supposed to mean who’s taking quality shots and who isn’t?
I’m really not a stats guy when it comes to hockey. I think hockey is really the hardest thing to judge when it comes to stats other than really blatant ones like PP% PK% and the obvious ones like that. I think in order to judge the true measure of a player you literally have to watch him every shift he’s out there to see his true worth. Not just judge him GVT and stuff like that, because even though EC’s GVT is a full point higher than Avery’s you still have plenty of people who say we should kept Avery over him which I agree with to a certain extent. But in that case I thought they were both bad options for different reasons.
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by RichieToGabbySCORE on Oct 13, 2011 5:54 PM EDT reply actions
Heh..the funny part is that PP% and PK% are overrated as an evaluation of those teams.
Anyway, shooting percentage matters in that when it’s really out-of-whack in one direction or the other, it’s in likely to bounce back to career norms.
For instance, you have someone like Jussi Jokinen in ’09-10 who scored 30 goals, and people/fans were excited that he could be that guy. Well, he also shot damn near 19% that season, so it was no big surprise that he followed up that campaign with just 19 goals.
Shot selection does play a big role in a individual player’s shooting percentage, so guys that can be consistent in getting to the high percentage areas are guys that will have career averages higher than a typical forward (for instance, Gaborik). PP time also obviously helps (teams convert more shots on the PP).
Anyway, to answer your questions:
If he took ten shots a game and managed to score 1 goal would you be upset because his shooting percentage is at 10% which is below average.
No, because that basically describes Alex Ovechkin’s game. But there’s no NHL forward that can generate that many shots, so it does become important when you’re talking about a sample of 200-250 shots over the course of a season.
I think in order to judge the true measure of a player you literally have to watch him every shift he’s out there to see his true worth
Disagree. Just as stats do not capture everything, neither does the human eye/brain, nor is the human element without bias. In fact, it tends to be much more biased than numbers, which are just records of events.
The true evaluation of a player needs to come from both.
Incidentally…that people prefer Avery over EC has very little to do with production and very much to do with the likability of the player. There are plenty that would prefer Avery over Fedotenko too, even though Fedotenko is clearly the better player at this stage.
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by George E. Ays on Oct 13, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Gabby is not a one man team.
When other top line talent is not surrounding him or supporting him, he is not as effective. I believe the key to his tremendous 1st year with the rangers was because he had vinny mostly setting him up. Without vinny, and his injury, his play really suffered as he could not carry this team all alone. There was one point where everyone just kept giving him the puck even if he wasn’t in position. And then to make matters worse, torts got under his skin, when he did not carry the whole team. But this year, as long as he can stay healthy, Gabby should be as good as his 1st year or maybe even better with BR there. As BR is obviously on another level than Vinny was. No matter what happens, it will be exciting to see how things turn outtt…….
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by George E. Ays on Oct 13, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
There ya go.
Prospal isn’t an elite guy either. He’s a very good player, not elite by any means though.
Gabby can and has done it on his own. No arguing that BR will help, but Gabs doesn’t need him.
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