Scoring Chances for Playoff Game 2 vs Washington

by George E. Ays on Apr 16, 2011 2:00 PM EDT in 2011 Rangers Playoff Coverage

So that's how you clear a crease. Interesting. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Once again, we'll just jump right in to the data. For those who missed it, the info from Game 1 can be found here.

The team gave a much better defensive effort this time around, and it shows up here. In game 1 showed a lot of matchups where the New York Rangers took the short end of the stick. This time around, the chances were mostly favorable, with only the 3rd line of Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson, and Jason Chimera for the Washington Capitals really getting the better of play. There was some score effects going on with the Caps content to hang on to a 2-0 lead in the 3rd period, but after losing 14-8 with the score tied on Wednesday, the Rangers 5-2 advantage this time when tied is still an improvement.

Looking at the types of chances again, there's also some positives:

Chance Type	WSH	NYR
Transition	6	3
Zone Pressure	4 (1)	7
Dzone Turnover	1	0
Off. Faceoffs	1 (1)	0

The Rangers did a much better job of limiting the Capitals transition game, which once again accounted for 50% of their total chances. The one faceoff chance for the came on the PP, with Jason Arnott winning the draw against Chris Drury, and 8 seconds later the puck was in the net.

Here's where the chances came from (if you didn't see the map, click here)

Area	WSH	NYR
Zone 1	4	5
Zone 2	1 (1)	1
Zone 3	6 (1)	3
Zone 4	1	1

The Rangers also did a much better job of keeping the Capitals away from Henrik and away from the middle of the ice. Even the zone 3 chances were further from Henrik Lundqvist, mostly coming from Alex Ovechkin launching from the above the dots.

Finally, just to add more data, here's the breakdown of where the chances came from:

NYR	Chance	Assist	COG	WSH	Chance	Assist	COG
Anisimov	0	1	0	Alzner	0	1	0
Avery	2	1	1	Arnott	1	0	1
Christensen	2	1	2	Backstrom	1	0	1
Dubinsky	1	0	1	Bgordon	1	0	0
Gaborik	3	0	3	Chimera	3	0	3
Girardi	0	1	0	Johansson	0	1	0
McDonagh	1	0	1	Knuble	1	0	0
Prust	0	1	0	Laich	0	3	0
Sauer	1	0	1	Ovechkin	5	0	2
Stepan	0	2	0

To define, 'COG" is a chance on goal, similar to a shot on goal. Oveckhin had 5 chances, but because only 2 hit the net, his COG is 2. The assist column comes from any pass that led directly to a scoring chance. So while Alzner's pass to Ovechkin for the break away counted, the Green shot that was blocked and caromed to Arnott for the goal was not.

This table's intent is to shed some more light on who is generating chances. So whlie Derek Stepan did not get any chances himself, he did set up 2, which for a playmaker like him is just as valuable.

Lastly, the raw data again, for those who want it:

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 30112

Team	Period	Time	Note	NYR						Opponent
NYR	1	19:11	Dubinsky	5	17	18	19	21	30	10	15	26	27	30	74	5v5
NYR	1	18:31	Gaborik, Girardi	5	10	18	20	26	30	8	19	22	27	30	74	5v5
NYR	1	18:24	Christensen Rbd	5	10	18	20	26	30	8	19	22	27	30	74	5v5
WSH	1	13:55	Chimera, Laich	16	23	27	30	38	42	21	23	25	27	30	90	5v5
NYR	1	5:56	Gaborik, Anisimov	10	16	28	30	42	97	10	15	26	27	30	74	5v5
WSH	1	5:16	Chimera	10	18	20	26	30	97	21	25	27	30	74	90	5v5
NYR	1	4:21	Sauer, Stepan	17	19	21	27	30	38	18	23	28	30	44	55	5v5
WSH	1	1:42	Knuble, Laich MS	10	17	18	20	28	30	21	22	23	30	55		5v4
WSH	2	17:50	Chimera, Johansson Goal	17	19	21	28	30	97	21	23	25	30	55	90	5v5
WSH	2	17:18	BGordon MS	10	20	26	27	30	38	10	15	26	27	30	74	5v5
WSH	2	16:35	Ovechkin, Laich MS	5	17	18	23	30		8	19	21	22	30	90	4v5
WSH	2	15:53	Arnott Goal	19	23	30	38	97		8	18	28	30	44	52	4v5
WSH	2	12:17	Ovechkin MS	5	10	18	20	26	30	8	19	22	27	30	74	5v5
WSH	2	8:12	Ovechkin, Backstrom	8	22	27	30	38		8	19	21	22	30	90	4v5
NYR	3	15:07	Avery Wrap	16	22	23	27	30	38	4	18	28	30	44	52	5v5
NYR	3	12:41	McDonagh, Avery MS	8	16	22	27	30	38	4	18	28	30	44	52	5v5
NYR	3	12:24	Avery, Prust MS	8	16	22	27	30	38	4	10	25	30	44	52	5v5
WSH	3	10:33	Backstrom	17	19	28	30	42	97	10	19	26	27	30	74	5v5
NYR	3	9:01	Gaborik, Christensen	10	20	26	28	30	97	15	21	25	27	30	74	5v5
WSH	3	7:34	Ovechkin, Alzner Breakaway	5	10	18	20	26	30	8	19	22	27	30	74	5v5
WSH	3	5:32	Ovechkin MS	5	10	18	20	21	30	8	19	22	27	30	74	5v5
NYR	3	1:03	Christensen, Stepan	8	19	21	26	28	42	8	18	19	27	30	74	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	D. GIRARDI	18:41	3	3	1:28	0	0	3:32	0	1
8	B. PRUST	9:11	3	0	0:00	0	0	1:54	0	1
10	M. GABORIK	21:29	4	5	1:49	0	1	0:00	0	0
16	S. AVERY	10:22	4	1	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
17	B. DUBINSKY	16:53	2	2	2:16	0	1	1:56	0	1
18	M. STAAL	18:57	3	4	0:54	0	1	3:32	0	1
19	R. FEDOTENKO	15:10	3	2	0:00	0	0	0:54	0	1
20	V. PROSPAL	17:58	3	5	1:59	0	1	0:00	0	0
21	D. STEPAN	12:11	3	2	2:01	0	0	1:10	0	0
22	B. BOYLE	12:56	3	0	1:33	0	0	2:11	0	1
23	C. DRURY	5:13	1	1	0:00	0	0	2:13	0	2
26	E. CHRISTENSEN	15:56	4	4	2:22	0	0	0:00	0	0
27	R. MCDONAGH	15:58	4	2	0:00	0	0	0:49	0	1
28	B. MCCABE	16:39	3	2	2:32	0	1	0:00	0	0
30	H. LUNDQVIST	48:37	9	8	4:00	0	1	5:09	0	3
38	M. SAUER	15:21	4	2	0:00	0	0	1:37	0	2
42	A. ANISIMOV	10:58	2	2	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
86	W. WOLSKI	8:38	0	0	1:40	0	0	0:00	0	0
97	M. GILROY	13:58	2	3	1:26	0	0	0:48	0	1

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	5	3	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	0	6	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0
3	5	3	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	10	12	10	8	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0

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Love the chance-assist data. That is money.

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by fat_daddyo on Apr 16, 2011 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Question

Does a blank spot mean that there were no chances either way when those 2 were on the ice?

"In the '60s I slept with many women, often outside in the mud and rain. It's possible a man may have slipped in there, there's no way of knowing."

by smorch9 on Apr 16, 2011 8:37 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, that’s correct. So Wolski was on for no chances for or against.

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by George E. Ays on Apr 16, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions

that COG spread sheet is a great addition…makes things much more accessible almost like a boxscore

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

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A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

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by Kevin Power on Apr 16, 2011 9:48 PM EDT reply actions

Data?

Here’s some data:

Game 1 Caps 2 goals, Rangers 1 (Caps scored 100% more than NY)

Game 2 Caps 2, Rangers 0 (Caps scored 200% more than NY)

Caps lead series 2 to zip (zip means ZERO)

by KoaKaulana on Apr 17, 2011 5:25 AM EDT reply actions

i think that’s what george is saying…thanks for summing it up

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Apr 17, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually,

The Caps will have scored undefined percent more goals in the 2nd game, as you’d have 2 divided by 0, which doesn’t exist in rational numbers.

Good effort though.

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Tracking the Rangers - Numbers don't lie. They just don't agree with you.
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by George E. Ays on Apr 17, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for writing this up, George.

I know it’s a frustrating time to be a Ranger fan right now and other discussions may now be taking precedent, but I’ve always found your analysis to be insightful and useful and your time and effort is much appreciated.

It’s unfortunate to see that the Caps were again beating the Rangers in “Transition Chances” at a 2 to 1 ratio (Game 1 = 11-5 and Game 2 = 6-3). This seems to illustrate an old and all-too-common complaint of mine concerning the Rangers offense: They need to carry the puck into the zone more often. I know we are primarily a “dump & chase/grind & pursue”, but we seem to be almost entirely dependent upon it and IT IS SO FRUSTRATING TO WATCH, especially when we need a goal!

"Clever is the eunuch version of funny"

by NYRBlue on Apr 17, 2011 8:25 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, a good portion of their chances are coming from zone pressure, which is all well and good, but if you’re not getting in the zone and establishing a forecheck, it leads to what’s happened the first two games, few chances and fewer goals.

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by George E. Ays on Apr 17, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

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