Scoring Chances for Playoff Game 3 vs Washington
by George E. Ays on Apr 19, 2011 6:00 AM EDT
in 2011 Rangers Playoff Coverage
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Just as the Game 2 loss had quite a few positives in the underlying numbers, this Game 3 win by the New York Rangers has a lot of negatives. We start once again with the head to head table:
This chart contains many more similarties to Game 1 than Game 2, where the Rangers struggled to find many/any favorable matchups. Like Brandon Dubinsky last time, this time Artem Anisimov was steam rolled, especially by Alexander Semin who was +7 against Anisimov when the Caps were only +8 at ES all together (12-4 for the game). It should be reminded here that this only accounts for 5v5 play, and that neither Christensen's goal (5v4) or Dubinsky's (4v4) were credited chances anyway. The goal going into Game 4 continues to be finding more scoring chances at even strength to test Michael Neuvirth.
Moving on to the other tables:
| NYR | Chance | Assist | COG | WSH | Chance | Assist | COG |
| Boyle | 2 | 0 | 2 | Alzner | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Christensen | 0 | 1 | 0 | Arnott | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dubinsky | 1 | 2 | 1 | Backstrom | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Fedotenko | 1 | 1 | 1 | Bgordon | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Gaborik | 3 | 0 | 2 | Carlson | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Gilroy | 1 | 0 | 1 | Green | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| McCabe | 0 | 1 | 0 | Johansson | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Prospal | 1 | 0 | 1 | Knuble | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Stepan | 2 | 1 | 2 | Ovechkin | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Wolski | 0 | 1 | 0 | Semin | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Sturm | 1 | 0 | 1 |
As one can imagine based on the H2H, Semin led all comers with a hand in 6 of the Washington Capitals' chances. Marian Gaborik, gets the "god bless him he's trying award," as he's now logged 10 scoring chances in the series without a goal. Most importantly, there's the signs of life from Dubinsky, who was in on 3 chances, even excluding his goal.
| WSH | NYR | |
| Transition | 6 (1) | 3 |
| Zone Pressure | 8 (1) | 7 (1) |
| Dzone Turnover | 2 | 0 |
| Off. Faceoffs | 0 | 1 |
Chance types have continued the same pattern, the Rangers get most of their offense from forechecking and zone pressure, Caps get theirs via a more balanced attack that is led by their transition game. Not much of a surprise, and thus not much to explain.
| WSH | NYR | |
| Zone 1 | 6 (2) | 4 (1) |
| Zone 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Zone 3 | 9 | 5 |
| Zone 4 | 0 | 1 |
If there was a positive to this game (besides the win of course), it's that the Rangers' defense has gone from allowing just 4/21 (19%) chances from the outside in game 1, to 6/12 (50%) in game 2, to 9/16 (56%) this time around. Keeping shots away from Henrik Lundqvist is a good way to ensure success going forward.
Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 30113
| Team | Period | Time | Note | NYR | Opponent | Str | ||||||||||
| WSH | 1 | 18:08 | Sturm | 20 | 21 | 27 | 30 | 38 | 42 | 4 | 18 | 28 | 30 | 44 | 52 | 5v5 |
| NYR | 1 | 17:10 | Gilroy, Fedotenko | 10 | 17 | 19 | 28 | 30 | 97 | 21 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 52 | 90 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 1 | 11:12 | Arnott, Semin | 5 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 30 | 42 | 18 | 23 | 28 | 30 | 44 | 55 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 1 | 6:01 | Johansson | 10 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 86 | 97 | 4 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 52 | 90 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 1 | 5:46 | BGordon | 10 | 19 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 38 | 10 | 15 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 55 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 1 | 5:13 | Carlson, Backstrom | 10 | 17 | 19 | 27 | 30 | 38 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 74 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 1 | 3:06 | Green, Ovechkin | 19 | 23 | 27 | 30 | 38 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 30 | 44 | 52 | 4v5 | |
| NYR | 1 | 1:17 | Stepan, McCabe | 10 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 15 | 21 | 23 | 30 | 5v3 | ||
| NYR | 1 | 0:45 | Gaborik MS | 10 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 15 | 21 | 23 | 30 | 5v3 | ||
| NYR | 1 | 0:27 | Gaborik, Dubinsky | 10 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 15 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 5v4 | |
| NYR | 1 | 0:26 | Dubinsky Rbd | 10 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 15 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 5v4 | |
| NYR | 2 | 18:40 | Gaborik, Dubinsky | 5 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 30 | 15 | 21 | 27 | 30 | 74 | 4v4 | ||
| NYR | 2 | 17:05 | Fedotenko | 10 | 19 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 97 | 18 | 27 | 30 | 74 | 90 | 5v4 | |
| WSH | 2 | 16:48 | Johansson | 10 | 19 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 97 | 18 | 27 | 30 | 74 | 90 | 5v4 | |
| WSH | 2 | 13:54 | Ovechkin, Semin MS | 5 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 30 | 42 | 8 | 19 | 28 | 30 | 52 | 55 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 2 | 13:34 | Semin, Backstrom | 5 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 30 | 42 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 28 | 30 | 55 | 5v5 |
| NYR | 2 | 10:21 | Boyle, Christensen | 21 | 22 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 86 | 19 | 22 | 23 | 30 | 55 | 5v4 | |
| NYR | 2 | 8:25 | Boyle, Stepan | 20 | 21 | 22 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 19 | 22 | 27 | 30 | 74 | 5v4 | |
| WSH | 2 | 5:18 | Semin, Backstrom | 8 | 20 | 27 | 30 | 38 | 42 | 18 | 19 | 28 | 30 | 52 | 55 | 5v5 |
| NYR | 2 | 4:18 | Stepan, Wolski | 21 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 86 | 97 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 25 | 30 | 90 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 2 | 2:58 | Carlson, Alzner | 20 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 42 | 97 | 10 | 15 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 74 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 2 | 1:00 | Ovechkin, Arnott Goal Defl | 5 | 8 | 18 | 21 | 22 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 44 | 52 | 55 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 3 | 16:32 | Semin MS | 20 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 42 | 97 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 28 | 30 | 52 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 3 | 16:26 | Semin | 20 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 42 | 97 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 28 | 30 | 52 | 5v5 |
| NYR | 3 | 12:00 | Prospal Goal Rbd | 5 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 30 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 30 | 44 | 74 | 5v5 |
| WSH | 3 | 5:14 | Backstrom, Ovechkin | 5 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 30 | 8 | 19 | 22 | 30 | 52 | 90 | 4v5 | |
| WSH | 3 | 5:13 | Knuble Goal Rbd | 5 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 30 | 8 | 19 | 22 | 30 | 52 | 90 | 4v5 | |
| # | Player | EV | PP | SH | ||||||
| 5 | D. GIRARDI | 18:02 | 2 | 4 | 0:41 | 0 | 0 | 3:16 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | B. PRUST | 11:52 | 0 | 2 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | M. GABORIK | 15:43 | 3 | 3 | 4:10 | 5 | 1 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | S. AVERY | 8:45 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | B. DUBINSKY | 17:22 | 3 | 3 | 4:44 | 4 | 0 | 2:14 | 0 | 2 |
| 18 | M. STAAL | 18:58 | 2 | 4 | 0:56 | 0 | 0 | 3:16 | 0 | 2 |
| 19 | R. FEDOTENKO | 18:35 | 1 | 4 | 2:59 | 1 | 1 | 1:02 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | V. PROSPAL | 9:28 | 1 | 6 | 5:10 | 5 | 0 | 0:02 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | D. STEPAN | 10:50 | 1 | 6 | 2:58 | 6 | 0 | 0:36 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | B. BOYLE | 13:03 | 0 | 1 | 3:50 | 2 | 0 | 1:29 | 0 | 2 |
| 23 | C. DRURY | 5:37 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 2:21 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | E. CHRISTENSEN | 4:33 | 1 | 2 | 4:21 | 3 | 1 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | R. MCDONAGH | 17:12 | 0 | 4 | 0:30 | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | 0 | 1 |
| 28 | B. MCCABE | 8:49 | 2 | 4 | 7:27 | 7 | 1 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | H. LUNDQVIST | 44:59:00 | 4 | 12 | 8:59 | 7 | 1 | 4:28 | 0 | 3 |
| 38 | M. SAUER | 17:25 | 0 | 4 | 0:39 | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | 0 | 1 |
| 42 | A. ANISIMOV | 11:51 | 0 | 8 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 86 | W. WOLSKI | 4:17 | 1 | 1 | 3:39 | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 97 | M. GILROY | 9:51 | 2 | 4 | 2:51 | 1 | 1 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| Period | Totals | EV | PP | 5v3 PP | SH | 5v3 SH | ||||||
| 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 11 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Apologies for the short summaries, the Jewish Holiday's leave me short on time. To those who celebrate, Happy Passover!
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Happy Kwanzaa to you too George
and once again great work trying to educate the masses here
"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx
In Prust We Trust
"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.
A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep
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Do these numbers lie?
In that chart at the bottom “Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 30113”, why isn’t Dubi’s goal considered a chance? That chart includes all chances for the game not just 5 v 5 correct? Just curious.
Thanks for the numbers. Its great to see the story of the game told this way. Really great for evaluating who’s doing what.
Manning lobs it, Burress alone, touchdown New York!
For the empty net, Mark Messier... do you believe it?! Do you believe it?! He said we will win game 6 - he has just picked up the hat trick!
i think
its because Dubi was in a spot that is not “defined” as a scoring chance even though the puck went into the net…it was such an untraditional play that it wasn’t in the “traditional” scoring area
"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx
In Prust We Trust
"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.
A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep
Follow me @8kpower
It was not defined because there was no shot on goal (though he was credited with one because it went in)
On the play..his attempt by was blocked (by Alzner?), then bounced off someone else and went in the net. The definition says both that ‘blocked shots are generally not included’ and it requires a “clear play directed at the net.”
I don’t feel either of those conditions was met, so no chance.
To answer 8k – he was certainly in the area, he was practically in the crease.
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by George E. Ays on Apr 19, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. Thanks for the scoop. I figured since he took the puck to the area it would be a chance, but I guess fortuitous bounces aren’t really chances.
Might need a new chart for mustachio’d magic chances.
Manning lobs it, Burress alone, touchdown New York!
For the empty net, Mark Messier... do you believe it?! Do you believe it?! He said we will win game 6 - he has just picked up the hat trick!
If he had slammed it into Neuvirth and then it did weird shit and went in, I would’ve counted it. It’s mostly because Alzner got it first.
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by George E. Ays on Apr 19, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
i thought that the “zone” for a scoring chance had to be in front of the net and coming from the back/side…thanks for the clarification George
"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx
In Prust We Trust
"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.
A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep
Follow me @8kpower
by Kevin Power on Apr 19, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for this George. I still struggle to understand all of it at times but I am all the more interested during the playoffs about the advanced statistics and the efficiency of the team’s offense.
@DigDeepNYR
"I like a man who grins when he fights." -Sir Winston Churchill
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I’m virtually always available to answer questions, if anything specific is confounding you. I know it’s a lot of data, and I don’t always do the greatest job of explaining it.
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by George E. Ays on Apr 19, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Quick question
Now that first chart indicates what each line or pairing had a scoring chance against the other. Are those just our numbers against theirs or ? Sorry im a little slow to understanding that one.
by louielounz1 on Apr 19, 2011 1:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's individually based.
So for instance…take Fedotenko:
When Fedotenko and Ovechkin were on the ice, the Rangers were -3. (I think it was 1 scoring chances for, 4 scoring chances against, would have to double check)
When he and Knuble were on the ice, the Rangers were -1.
When he and Green were on the ice, the Rangers were even.
And when Feds and Erksine were on the ice, there were zero events. (thus, no number in the box)
Then just take that down the line for each player. Everything’s from the perspective of our players.
Hope that helps.
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by George E. Ays on Apr 19, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Fantastic work George.
Like to see us capitalize (UCWUTIDID!) on some of our quality scoring chances instead of relying on random occurrences and luck like Dubinsky’s and Christensen’s goals.
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"On this team, we fight for that inch. On this team, we tear ourselves and everyone else around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch. Because we know when we add up all those inches, that's gonna make the fucking difference between winning and losing! Between living and dying! I'll tell you this - in any fight, it's the guy who's willing to die who's gonna win that inch."
Yup, we went from 24% during the year against the Caps to only scoring on 6% of our chances so far this series. That must improve.
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by George E. Ays on Apr 19, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Odds the Stepan unit stays together for tonight’s game?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Apr 20, 2011 5:19 PM EDT reply actions
Slim, they swapped Fedotenko and Prospal in practice yesterday (or Monday, forget now).
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by George E. Ays on Apr 20, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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