Scoring Chances for Playoff Game 5 vs Washington

by George E. Ays on Apr 25, 2011 1:00 PM EDT in 2011 Rangers Playoff Coverage

The season finale ended with the Washington Capitals stifling the New York Rangers offense once again. The Rangers had a 31:32 stretch in the game without a scoring chance at even strength, and for the 7th and 8th times in the series, they were held to 2 or fewer chances in a period. For comparison, that happened only 33/240 tracked periods during the regular season. Credit the Capitals' defense, blame the Rangers' offense. Either way, the series ended in part because of those numbers.

Here's the head to head for Game 5:

Sc30115_medium

Score effects come strongly into play here, as the Rangers only had chances by Brian Boyle and Wojtek Wolski in the first two periods. Otherwise, the game turned out fairly even, with only the Cap's third defensive pair really having a consistent edge across the matchups. As normal, the rest of the data is after the jump.

NYR	Chance	Assist	COG	WSH	Chance	Assist	COG
Anisimov	1	0	1	Backstrom	0	1	0
Boyle	2	0	2	Carlson	1	0	1
Christensen	2	0	2	Chimera	1	0	1
Gaborik	1	0	1	Fehr	1	0	0
Prospal	0	1	0	Green	2	0	0
Sauer	0	1	0	Hannan	0	1	0
Wolski	2	0	2	Johansson	0	3	0
				Laich	1	0	0
				Ovechkin	3	3	3
				Semin	3	2	2
				Sturm	1	1	1
	8	2	8		13	11	8

The Capitals' stars made sure there would be no Game 6 this time around. Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green accounted for 8/13 chances (not incl. Green's goal), and all 3 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers got chances from their enigmas, while getting little to nothing from the several 20 goal scorers on the team.

	WSH	NYR
Transition	7 (2)	5
Zone Pressure	6	3 (1)
Dzone Turnover	0	0
Off. Faceoffs	0	0

	WSH	NYR
Zone 1	6 (2)	2 (1)
Zone 2	3	0
Zone 3	4	3
Zone 4	0	3

It's almost like a broken record. The Caps got out in transition, got next to Henrik Lundqvist, and converted their chances. The Rangers were kept to the outside, and their forecheck, while strong at times, generated no shots. WIth the exception of a few periods, this was the trend all series. I could go on, but I'll save that for the series summary later this week. For now, we have an entire offseason to talk about how the Rangers can improve.

Here's the raw data:

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 30115

Team	Period	Time	Note	NYR						Opponent
NYR	1	19:45	Boyle	5	8	16	18	22	30	4	8	19	21	23	30	5v5
WSH	1	19:25	Ovechkin	5	8	16	18	22	30	4	8	19	21	23	30	5v5
WSH	1	14:10	Green, Ovechkin	5	17	18	23	30		8	21	28	30	44	52	4v5
WSH	1	14:04	Green, Ovechkin	5	17	18	23	30		8	21	28	30	44	52	4v5
WSH	1	10:41	Ovechkin, Backstrom	8	16	22	27	30	38	8	19	21	23	30	52	5v5
WSH	1	7:41	Laich, Ovechkin	10	17	18	19	30	97	4	8	19	21	23	30	5v5
WSH	1	3:26	Semin, Sturm MS	8	16	22	27	30	97	4	18	23	28	30	44	5v5
WSH	1	2:46	Fehr, Johansson MS	18	20	23	26	28	30	4	16	23	25	30	90	5v5
NYR	1	0:10	Wolski, Sauer	21	27	30	38	42	86	15	23	25	30	55	90	5v5
WSH	2	17:52	Sturm, Semin	10	20	21	27	30	38	18	23	28	30	55	90	5v5
WSH	2	12:57	Ovechkin, Hannan Goal	5	17	18	19	30	86	8	19	21	23	30	55	5v5
WSH	2	10:20	Carlson, Semin	21	27	30	38	42		18	27	28	30	44	74	4v5
NYR	2	8:55	Christensen	19	20	26	28	30	86	15	21	23	30	55		5v4
WSH	3	10:32	Chimera, Johansson	5	18	19	26	30	42	16	23	25	30	55	90	5v5
NYR	3	8:38	Boyle	5	16	18	22	30	86	8	18	19	23	27	30	5v5
WSH	3	7:51	Semin	17	22	27	30	38	86	25	28	30	44	55	74	5v5
NYR	3	7:42	Anisimov	17	19	27	30	38	42	25	28	30	44	55	74	5v5
NYR	3	6:34	Christensen	5	16	18	21	26	30	8	19	21	27	30	74	5v5
NYR	3	4:16	Gaborik, Prospal	5	10	18	20	22	30	8	21	27	30	44	55	5v5
WSH	3	3:38	Semin, Johansson Goal	5	18	21	26	30	86	18	23	28	30	55	90	5v5
NYR	3	0:32	Wolski Goal	16	19	26	28	42	86	4	21	23	26	30	90	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	D. GIRARDI	15:24	4	4	0:06	0	0	1:20	0	2
8	B. PRUST	11:05	1	3	0:08	0	0	0:55	0	0
10	M. GABORIK	17:07	1	2	2:42	0	0	0:35	0	0
16	S. AVERY	12:33	4	3	0:08	0	0	0:00	0	0
17	B. DUBINSKY	14:55	1	3	2:03	0	0	1:23	0	2
18	M. STAAL	20:01	4	6	0:14	0	0	2:36	0	2
19	R. FEDOTENKO	15:43	2	3	0:54	1	0	1:15	0	0
20	V. PROSPAL	12:53	1	2	1:43	1	0	0:00	0	0
21	D. STEPAN	15:45	2	2	0:30	0	0	1:46	0	1
22	B. BOYLE	14:56	3	4	2:19	0	0	2:12	0	0
23	C. DRURY	5:58	0	1	0:00	0	0	0:51	0	2
26	E. CHRISTENSEN	11:48	2	3	1:49	1	0	0:35	0	0
27	R. MCDONAGH	17:47	2	4	0:00	0	0	1:38	0	1
28	B. MCCABE	14:47	1	1	3:46	1	0	0:03	0	0
30	H. LUNDQVIST	48:32	6	10	4:00	1	0	4:17	0	3
38	M. SAUER	18:20	2	3	0:00	0	0	2:37	0	1
42	A. ANISIMOV	10:57	3	1	0:00	0	0	1:42	0	1
86	W. WOLSKI	14:45	3	3	3:38	1	0	0:00	0	0
97	M. GILROY	13:50	0	2	0:00	0	0	0:20	0	0

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	2	7	2	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
2	1	3	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
3	5	3	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	8	13	7	10	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0

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Gonna miss you.

"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau

See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB).
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I also log the Caps scoring chances for 2010-11. The summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.

by NGreenberg on Apr 25, 2011 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

One of the most disappointing aspects of the series is Dubinsky’s terrible performance in all three games in Washington. He was practially invisible. But judging from the above, he had plenty of company.

"To everybody else we're underdogs, but we go in thinking we can handle any team in the NHL."
Brandon Prust, #8, New York Rangers

by Joe1969 on Apr 25, 2011 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

Despite ripping him alot after the first two games, when the home/road split looks like that, I’m inclined to credit the Caps’ coaching staff for being able to get the matchups and the defense for shutting him down.

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by George E. Ays on Apr 25, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

George, did you look at H2H ice time? If so, what did it look like. It’s tough to get a sense of how much the lines/pairs matched up looking at the SC H2H. If not, don’t worry about it; just curiosity more than anything else.

by NTB on Apr 25, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I had plans to do it for each game, but the holidays screwed me a little bit time-wise. I’m going to compile the whole series, I’ll include the H2H time there.

If you’re curious before that, here’s the script (which gives ES time only). You just have to enter the game numbers, which are 30111, 30112, 30113, 30114, and 30115.

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by George E. Ays on Apr 25, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

H2H TOI and Corsi (though for some reason I keep missing one or two Corsi events per game…oh well).

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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.

by red army line on Apr 25, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

So I’m reading that right:

The white is the TOI
N = number of events
@ # = the differential

Correct?

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by George E. Ays on Apr 25, 2011 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep.

by red army line on Apr 26, 2011 4:46 AM EDT up reply actions

(and from a Caps perspective, green is out-Corsi’ing, yellow is +/- = 0, red is getting out-Corsi’d)

by red army line on Apr 26, 2011 4:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, he also said today the adjustment to going back to center was more difficult than he anticipated.

"To everybody else we're underdogs, but we go in thinking we can handle any team in the NHL."
Brandon Prust, #8, New York Rangers

by Joe1969 on Apr 25, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Atleast Dubi showed up EVENTUALLY

There’s other guys we can’t say the same for. Guys making a good chunk more then Dubi is.

by BuckarooClub on Apr 25, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions

You've hooked me

This season like never before I’ve gotten deeper into the numbers in hockey stats. George, you do a tremendous job in presenting and explaining the numbers. Thanks for tweeking this hockey stat geek and I look forward to next season when more of those numbers hopefully tilt in the Blueshirts favor.

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by Broheem NJ on Apr 25, 2011 10:40 PM EDT reply actions

It is my aim to bother you on twitter to explain this better to me. So that I can enjoy and understand advanced statistics for the entirety of next season.

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by Dig Deep on Apr 29, 2011 3:50 PM EDT reply actions

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