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Artem Anisimov - the invisible stud

Note by Joe Fortunato: Good work here Blue. There will be an Artem Anisimov report card, but this seems like a good topic for you guys to discuss on a lazy Friday. Have at it: 

It seems that whenever a proposed trade is floated in Rangeland Artem's name comes up. Has anyone stopped and really looked at what this kid has done in just his 2nd year and being only 22 years old? I doubt it. And those that suggest we trade him will be the first people on the complain line when in 5 years from now he is a stud in this league. Complaining that the Rangers always give up youth who go on  to greener pastures and come back to haunt us.

I admit I have floated the idea as well since I think with Stephan and AA the Rangers have (will have) two very good 2nd line centers. But once you dig a little deeper you realize that Anisimov is a keeper. I would not mind having the problem of two #2 centers...as long as we have a #1 as well. And maybe if we stick with a kid he just might surprise us (Marc Savard, Mike Knuble, etc...)

So lets take a deeper look at AA...(I am not stat expert so please feel free to correct me or challenge my presumptions.)

Sorted on Relative Corsi Quality of Competition for Centers that played over 40 games:

What jumps out to me is AA had the highest Corsi Rel QoC and his P/60 where not so far off and in some cases more that proven stars.

 

RK  NAME  Corsi Rel QoC  Corsi QoC  P/60
2 ARTEMANISIMOV  1.412 0.931 1.98
3 HENRIKZETTERBERG  1.383 0.739 2.14
5 PAVELDATSYUK  1.175 0.517 2.72
7 JORDANSTAAL  1.037 0.907 1.84
8 PATRICEBERGERON  1.026 0.695 2.46
10 STEPHENWEISS  1.004 0.577 1.43
11 PATRICKMARLEAU  0.998 0.038 1.97
14 BROOKSLAICH  0.95 0.278 1.81
16 DAVIDBACKES  0.907 0.792 2.16
17 JEFFCARTER  0.896 0.67 2.48
25 PAULSTASTNY  0.802 0.178 1.83
29 MIKERICHARDS  0.752 0.567 2.07

 

Given his age, cap hit and his overall attitude I see no reason why we should be looking to move this kid.

Comments, complaints, critisisms?

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are these stats,over the,last two years?

Or the players first two years in the league?

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by Kevin Power on May 6, 2011 7:11 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

These are definitely the 2010-2011 season only.

Anisimov had fairly weak comp last year (no surprise, he spent so much time on the 4th line), and his production was a bit less (1.69 p/60)

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, last season only.

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is an excellent overview.

One thing, Corsi QoC is less useful than Corsi Rel QoC, simply because Corsi QoC has a hard time with the value of good players on bad teams.

Much like a barked about Dubinsky’s underlying numbers screamed “be patient,” Anisimov’s are better. Glad someone noticed on their own!

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 8:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Thanks. Yeah though so, that’s why I sorted on Corsi Rel QoC.

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

George, am I correct to assume the following:

direct comparisons for stats like Corsi Rel QComp, as above, need to be done with extreme caution? My assumption is based on the fact that the underlying QComp numbers are not equal. A more valid comparison would group players with similar QCOMP numbers and then examine the relative Corsi numbers.

On a related note, I assume you can compare QCOMP numbers across players and teams with no caveats. Or is it better to use that players rank within his team’s hierarchy? For example, player A has a QCOMP = .100 (highest among teams forwards). Player B, on a different team, has a QCOMP = .087 (highest among teams forwards). Is it better to say player A faces tougher competition or that both players faced the toughest competition for their teams? Or does it not matter?

Thanks and let me know if you need more clarification on either question.

by NTB on May 6, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is it better to say player A faces tougher competition or that both players faced the toughest competition for their teams? Or does it not matter?

I would say it does not matter. If you’re just comparing roles of players, the actual number doesn’t matter much, the ranking means more. If you’re comparing how difficult the role was, then you can compare the numbers. For instance, Staal/Girardi are in the same role as a Weber/Suter, but Staal/Girardi had a more difficult opponent base.

I’m not completely understanding your first question, specifically what you mean by “the underlying QComp numbers are not equal.”

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ok. Looking at Zetterberg and AA. I’m assuming the QCOMP numbers differ between the 2, with HZ facing much tougher competition. So saying something like AA ranks second among Centers in Corsi Rel QCOMP involves an implicit “all else equal” assumption. However, if HZ is facing tougher comp than AA, then this violates that “all else equal” assumption.

 So, should we first be grouping based on QCOMP and then looking at the relative Corsi numbers? So, in relation to AA, we should be comparing him to others who faced similar competition and then looking at those relative Corsi numbers.

by NTB on May 6, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Using HZ and AA still:

Anisimov had harder competition based on Corsi Rel QoC (Rel. Corsi, above),
Harder based on Corsi QoC (Corsi ON, above),
Easier based on QCOMP (relative +/-, not shown).

The underlying methodology is the same across all 3 metrics, it’s just using different variables (which are those in the parentheses).

At least I think that’s what you’re getting at.

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks. I was confusing a couple of things. Makes sense now.

by NTB on May 6, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Either way, the fact that in a sane conversation AA is mentioned along with HZ and some of the others listed above, that still says good things.

I’m not saying he is better then those but he is not very far away for a kid at 22.

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup, and not that I want to compare the two in the least bit, but Datsyuk didn’t become even a 65 point player (let alone the 90+ he is now) until he was 25, and that required a bunch of pp time.

I’ll be extremely disappointed if he tops out at 25-35-60 that some are speculating.

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really think he has a high ceiling. He should fill out a bit and he cares, maybe too much. I don’t think he has low confidence but I think he cares too much as is afraid to make mistakes. That’s what I chalk the past playoff games too. He played scared/timid. Now let’s hope he takes it and learns from it.

And you know what, if it doesn’t happen I would be happy with a more offensive Nemchinov. That’s who he reminds me off but with more of a nose for the net.

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very nicely put together. The only flaw (and this is extremely nitpicky) would be the spelling errors. Very nice work, good analysis and it reveals part of why AA is special- something we all sense but can’t really put our finger on. It looks like he plays an extremely intelligent two-way game, especially for a young center.

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by Dig Deep on May 6, 2011 8:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Thanks. I’m not a great speller to begin with and jumping around from a QWERTY to a AZERTY keyboard plus spell check in French doesn’t help.

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by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Legit French person or American dwelling in France?

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-Ahmad Bradshaw is undoubtedly a psychic genius.

by Scratch and Snif on May 6, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would prefer to say New Yawker in Paris ;)

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 7, 2011 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

No worries about the spelling. You were just asking for critique so I thought I’d throw a drunken cat into the fancy dinner party of your self esteem… or something like that. Careful, the cat hasn’t had its shots.

@DigDeepNYR
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by Dig Deep on May 7, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Paris is fun

Not even close to New York in that regard, but a decent place to eat, poop, and leave your stuff in I guess.

"Mes que un club"
-Ahmad Bradshaw is undoubtedly a psychic genius.

by Scratch and Snif on May 8, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great stuff…

Yea, if he can improve on faceoffs, put on some muscle, and get a little more consistency in offensive production, he’s gonna be effing nasty!

by j-red on May 6, 2011 10:32 AM EDT reply actions  

uh

That’s a lot of ifs.

I had great expectations for AA this year and there were a few times when I thought he was finally going to break out for good, but I think he is too enigmatic offensively to ever be a solid 1st/2nd line player. I hope he proves me wrong obviously.

That being said, I would not be surprised if he is not a ranger next season.

by Town on May 6, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

’enigmatic ’ is a Semin and AA aint no Semin.

When he has confidence he gets going..he just loses it for long stretch. Normal for a 22yr old. But he doesn’t disappear because he doesn’t care.

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

his attitude is far better than Semin’s as made evident by his great defensive play this season. Enigmatic, to me, usually reflects attitude, but doesn’t have to necessarily. To me, it just means that sometimes a guy shows flashes of utter brilliance while disappearing other times. It’s just….enigmatic why that happens.

by Town on May 6, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he is too enigmatic offensively to ever be a solid 1st/2nd line player

but you don’t have any real evidence for this, it’s just a feeling…. and that’s fine, but maybe your expectations were too high. I think you need to take into account that’s its extremely rare for a player taken outside of the top 10-15 in the draft, to have a significant impact in the second season of the NHL. He’s 22 years old, and this post is proof that his advanced stats are excellent. Don’t write him off so quickly.

by j-red on May 6, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Alot of ifs indeed, but very correctable ifs. Putting on some muscle can be done in a few months, improving on faceoffs idem, skating with more power as well (demonstrated by Boyle) and consistency comes with maturity. He has the skill and the work ethic, two things that a pretty damn hard to teach.

"Mes que un club"
-Ahmad Bradshaw is undoubtedly a psychic genius.

by Scratch and Snif on May 6, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

great article

I have always been a fan of him for a number of reasons

1. he’s big
2. he plays hard
3. he has great hands
4. he has an amazing hockey name

A couple of weeks back there was a fanpost calling him “our #1 center of the future” and i agree in that is entirely possible. one question though – was it serious that he was going to take lessons from Boyle’s figure skater? because i think that could definitely help him make the jump. he looks like he skates carrying a barbell loaded with squat weights in his shoulders.

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by Papa T on May 6, 2011 10:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Great post man. I don’t get to post much being at school but I read this blog whenever I can and pretty much watch every game. Not many blogs put in the time, effort and thought that you guys do.

I personally thought Arti was a bit overrated by some (most) Rangers fans but this is pretty refreshing to see in proving my initial accusation wrong.

However, it is startling to see that we have to rely on such a young player to play against such talent on the reg like that. More so than most stars on that list. It really shows that we are desperately slacking in the center department (maybe not for the future but right now and for the next couple years if we dont make a move). I think it would be better for his development to take some pressure off hime by have him play against more second liners to let him build up some higher point seasons and some confidence along with that.

Complaining that the Rangers always give up youth who go on to greener pastures and come back to haunt us.

In recent years we have been much better in this department. Dawes, Prucha, Lundmark, Moore, etc haven’t done much. Even Dupuis doesn’t put up big numbers despite playing with elite talent. Malholtra and Betts are exceptions but every team has a few of those guys bouncing around the league.

by NJblueshirt on May 6, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions  

I think it would be better for his development to take some pressure off hime by have him play against more second liners to let him build up some higher point seasons and some confidence along with that.

I tend to agree, but that’s another knock against signing Richards. Dallas didn’t trust Richards with even top 6 competition this year. Ribiero gets the toughs for that team. With Richards and Stepan, Anisimov would almost certainly continue to get the toughs.

I personally look at that as glass 1/2 full…he made a big leap in his development (70 more shots, 16 more points) while facing alot of the league’s best players. If that’s not slowing him down, I’m not sure what will.

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

That’s the thing. It’s almost a fork in the road for Artie. If Richards comes in and they decide to use AA against top competition and give Richards move favorable offensive assignments that could stump AA’s offensive development. You still have to factor in Stephan who needs favorable playing time and that needs to hide because of his faceoffs, you are almost setting AA up become more of a defensive forward.

But if ‘force’ Richard’s to step up his game and go against top competition, that could free up AA a bit offensively.

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

In recent years we have been much better in this department. Dawes, Prucha, Lundmark, Moore, etc haven’t done much. Even Dupuis doesn’t put up big numbers despite playing with elite talent. Malholtra and Betts are exceptions but every team has a few of those guys bouncing around the league.

Don’t foget Brendel!! You know some say they think he might have matured enough to come back to the NHL and contribute.

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can't blame them for letting Betts or Malhotra go

Malhotra was #7 overall pick, who bounced around the league, has been in 4 different organizations, and now, at 30, was having a good season as a 3rd line center. Betts was a second rd pick who’d managed to keep a career as a 4th line center. In either case, we’re THICK with bottom 6 six players.

by BuckarooClub on May 6, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the Rangers would’ve kept Betts if he wasn’t made an uncertainty by Brashear’s elbow. Let’s not forget the entire league passed on Betts during free agency that summer because of his concussion.

The Rangers had to fill the roster, and did so. Betts was a victim of circumstance, glad to see it worked out for him in Philly.

by caonenine on May 6, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

So happy to see the numbers back up what my eyes were telling me since he arrived in the NHL. Artie will be a really good one, he just needs to mature into his 6’5" frame.

He has the shot, the work ethic and the defensive acumen to be one of the better 2nd line centers in the league.

by caonenine on May 6, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions  

I like Artie. He progressed a lot in his two seasons with the Rangers and if he can add some mass and become better at face offs he’ll be a really good hockey player.

by M.R.M. on May 6, 2011 11:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Travail agréable Blue!

by one-bar on May 6, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions  

So what’s everyone’s thoughts on his Cap Hit this upcoming year?

by mcjam84 on May 6, 2011 2:10 PM EDT reply actions  

He has zero leverage but I see Slats being tough but still doing the right thing. I think it’s right around where Dubi’s last contract was ($1.8mil)

Aucune clause de Mouvement

by Blueshirt in Paris on May 6, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Anywhere in the $1.5M to $2M range, more years, higher avg. salary … I can’t see the Rangers asking him to sign for more than three years though.

by caonenine on May 6, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

How long is an acceptable time frame for a young player to develop?

I havent tracked this at all- just asking. When I look at some of the best players & specifically the best young players in the league they seem to come in and contribute significantly right away. e.g. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Stamkos, etc…
How many years should it take for “potential” to become actual talent ?

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by RangerFanInChicago on May 6, 2011 2:20 PM EDT reply actions  

You are listing a bunch of can’t miss guys. Those players are good enough that they make significant contributions right away. For the majority of top six forwards around the league, I would guess they hit their statistical peak around their fourth year in the league, the good ones sustain that level of production for about three years and the really good ones keep it up for over three years until they lose their legs in their early 30s.

For the typical career (rookie year at 21) that would translate to a players’ prime starting at 24 and continuing through to 27 and then declining through their late 20s. Specifically in Artie’s case, if he’s putting up 65 point seasons two years from now, then I think we can deem him a success.

I am completely guessing on all of these numbers btw, but I bet if I actually did the research, I wouldn’t be too far off :)

(Ok … I just went and did some research, this study shows I was pretty damn close with the age of an average rookie, so that’s something http://www.quanthockey.com/Distributions/RookieAgeDistribution.php)

by caonenine on May 6, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

that would translate to a players’ prime starting at 24

I wouldn’t say the prime definitely hits there, but they should at least be giving top 6 production (say, 50+ points) by 24.

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough … this is all guesswork anyway

by caonenine on May 6, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh absolutely.

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Toews Kane Stamkos were all top 3 picks. The guys that become stars from the later rounds rarely just burst on the scene and become stars. They develop over time. The only thing that does seem to be consistent is that they start to emerge when they’re ~24 years old.

Glancing around the past 3 NHL drafts, the guys that have had immediate impacts are the guys in the top half of the first round. In 2008, there’s about 10 guys outside the first round who have even carved out a spot in the NHL now (Stepan incl.). In 2009, only Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Clifford so far, and obviously no one yet from 2010.

Overall, there are obviously exceptions (the coveted P. Stastny broke out almost immediately after being a 2nd rounder), but for the most part, it’s a 3-5 year investment for those that will go on to play at an all-star level from the later rounds.

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

keep the faith in AA

I was the poster who wrote the article about AA being our future number one center. I agree w this post b/c I still feel this way, even though #42 disappeared for some notable stretches this year. As far as raw talent, he’s got heaps of it. And yes, he cares; the effort is there most nights.

I didn’t know Richards plays against lesser opponents than Ribiero. That makes me really skeptical about signing him. I’d rather make the 22 year old do it than pay 7 or 8 million for B.R. to have him skate with Gaborik who was invisible against anyone other than the league doormats.

by KingHenrik30 on May 6, 2011 2:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

faith?

faith in what? that he will be a number one center? a solid 3rd liner? For the effort he gives (which is a lot) and his effectiveness on defense/penalty kill, you would think that if he had the ability to score consistently, he would have been much more productive. IMO, AA will only be a solid two-way forward who will hover around 20 goals and wow us every once in a while with a spectacular play. A future number one center he is not.

by Town on May 6, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

AA is not even 23 yet and he is still physically maturing. He has the proper skill set to be a #1 center, that certainly doesn’t mean he will become one, but he definitely has a chance. He could easily become the next Michael Handzus (which is essentially what Town described in his post). All KingHenrik was saying is that is waaaaay too early to pass judgment on AA. At least let him have two more NHL seasons playing among the top six forwards. If he only puts up another pair of 44-50 point seasons, then Town may be on to something.

Let me ask you this though, if AA manages to break the 60 point barrier either of the next two seasons, would it shock anyone?

by caonenine on May 6, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

For the effort he gives (which is a lot) and his effectiveness on defense/penalty kill, you would think that if he had the ability to score consistently, he would have been much more productive.

Well, this is where Parisian Blue’s post comes in. He’s only 22, and he’s been thrown out there against the leagues best players, on average. It’s hard enough for veteran stars like Datsyuk or Zetterberg to overcome those assignments, let alone a kid in his 2nd NHL season.

There are other factors as well. Example: Anisimov started in the offensive zone for only 50.2% of his starts (neutral zone excluded), whereas, Stepan got 64.1%. That can have a huge impact on how much production a player can actually generate (it’s easier to score when you’re starting on offense rather than having to take the puck 200 feet to do so).

PP time is another large factor, no PP time means you’re not getting time during the easiest situations to score. Compare Phil Kessel (63 points, 40 ES, 23 on PP) to Anisimov (44 points, 36 ES, 8 on the PP) and you see what a difference the final numbers can have.

Now, it’s entirely possible that Anisimov never overcomes the weight of his assignments, and he settles in at 50-60 points. However, the underlying numbers say he has a chance to be very, very good.

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by George E. Ays on May 6, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, but i would be pleasantly surprised

Like you said, if we give AA a few years to develop, he can become a very reliable and productive center in this league for many years (though not ever a number 1) However, I see him being most effective/productive by putting on a lot of weight and moving to the wing. I think he can do very well around the net/in the slot especially since he began using his body better and even developed something of a mean streak toward the end of the season.

by Town on May 6, 2011 3:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Wing doesn’t make sense for AA. Center is a defense first position in Torts’ system (and for most NHL teams). As the original post shows AA is already one of the best defensive centers in the league. Why move him away from a situation that is an obvious strength and one that makes the whole team better?

by caonenine on May 6, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see what you’re saying, but I think his offensive talent can be better channeled on the wing-and i don’t necessarily think he would be the best fit on the Rangers

by Town on May 6, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

A team's strongest players should be at center

Keep him in the middle of the ice, dont convert him like Dubi

by GBK2 on May 6, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dubi looks lost when he plays center. His game is predicated on movement and hitting, disrupting the other team and carrying the puck along the boards and driving the post. By contrast, AA is very calm on the ice, he can stickhandle in tight spaces and usually makes the right decision with the puck. Couple that with his strong defensive play and you have a prototypical 1st or 2nd line center.

If Richards were to join the Rangers then you would match the Pack Line and the Boyle line against other teams’ top lines and the Richards line against the other lines. It is a perfect combo actually.

by caonenine on May 6, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or Dubi across from Gabby with Richards to give some grit and defensive play on that line.

by BigB22 on May 7, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Keep Artie!

And remove this add for Chivas Regal. I went to the liquor store today to buy some, in fact, but I didn’t realize it cost half my paycheck for a bottle, and the $20 I brought wasn’t going to cut it. Now it’s just a tease.

by broadwayblueshirts on May 6, 2011 9:00 PM EDT reply actions  

LOL broadwayblue

If we can keep Richards playing against other teams’ second and third lines then yes, it makes perfect sense to sign him, but for no more than 3 seasons.

by KingHenrik30 on May 6, 2011 11:26 PM EDT reply actions  

AWESOME AWESOME article. IMO anyone who throws AA’s name out there for trades is nuts. He’s big with skill and he’s going to be real special. I see him putting up 25 goals and 55-60 points next year personally.

Rec’d

"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on May 7, 2011 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

i am not good with all these crazy stats and such…but in the end you get your point across nonetheless. Arty looked great the second half of the season….loved a lot of his breakaway goals and other good things.

only thing i dislike….is that people are still calling Derek Stepan….is not Derek Stephan…

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This team has balls.

by Master Ov Brutality on May 9, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I really like AA. He has the potential to be a quiet scorer….one who doesn’t garner much attention on this team from opposing defenses. My criticisms of his play this past season include the following:
1- He seems to get knocked around a lot, I think he needs to fill out a little and do some leg work. He can be a horse if he bulks up, he has the body to be a power forward.
2- He needs confidence. He scored some sick goals this season, a few wrist shots come to mind but I think he should be shooting more often and he doesn’t
3- Consistency which is everyones problem it seems……some times he simply is invisible.

Absolute Worst Ranger Fan!!!!!!....yet incredibly realistic and usually correct.

by earthworm on May 9, 2011 5:13 PM EDT reply actions  

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Strategy For Game 6
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It’s time to get Nasty.
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Rangers Viewing Party Questions
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In case you haven't seen this yet...
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Win Tickets to Gm. 4
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Some principles on defensive hockey tactics (nothing for experts but for the "casual fan")
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Let's have some fun. I have a time machine!

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Managing Editor

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