When I heard through a friend that the Rangers had selected J.T. Miller at 15th overall on Friday night, I then hopped on the BlackBerry and went to his hockeydb.com profile to check out his numbers. I wasn't happy at the time, but with more research I do in the end like the pick. Anywho, using the always handy NHL League Translation numbers, I put together a quick chart so we can see what the Rangers are working with here:
The Average NHL Season Points is done by taking the career PPG ratio of the player and then multiplying it by the correct translation ratio. The "Ceiling" is a theory I have, and from all of my research it's somewhat accurate. I take the best individual season the player has had to date and multiply that by the correct translation ratio, and it yields what should be close to their best season in the NHL.
With Miller and Fogarty having played in leagues where translation numbers are hard to come by, I do not have any magic numbers for them unfortunately so we'll have to trust the scouts. I really like the St. Croix and McColgan picks. Both play in Canadian Juniors, and both have put up solid numbers that have progressed higher in their first two seasons of junior play. Hopefully, they can continue to progress, which will see their projected average NHL season and "Ceiling" totals rise. Noreau, from all accounts, is a stay-at-home D-man who plays consistently in the QMJHL, so I don't have many gripes there. Peter Ceresnak just made the jump from Slovakian juniors to the Slovak Extraliga, so more will be known about his potential numbers in the years to come.
Also, as Miller and Fogarty go off to play NCAA hockey starting this fall, they will have numbers to project after their first season is complete. Until then, it's all on the eyes of the scouts. Let's hear some of your final thoughts on the draft in the comments.