What Are They Worth - Brandon Dubinsky

by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 6:00 AM EDT in New York Rangers Analysis

Let me hear your war cry! (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

We're just one week away now from the first of the three arbitration hearings scheduled for the New York Rangers, that of Brandon Dubinsky. Last year at this time, I looked at the progression of Dubinsky's career, and came to the conclusion that with some more shots on goal and more consistency, he could develop into a solid first liner. He certainly showed both of those qualities this year, but the question still exists among the fan base on whether he can reach that next level. To get a clearer picture, I decided to take a look at some comparable players, and see if we can estimate his value going forward.

To start off, I ran a search through hockey-reference.com, searching for the combined seasons of all players who played at least 200 games, between ages 22 and 24, post-lockout. That list produces 59 players, ranging in points from Alex Ovechkin (331) to Ryan Hollweg (12). From that list, I narrowed it down to all of those within 0.1 of Dubinsky's point per game average (0.61). That list gives 22 players.

The details of these players can be found after the jump.

Name	Year	Year	Team	GP	G	A	P	p/m	EV	PP	SH	S	S%	TOI	PPG
Loui Eriksson	2008	2010	DAL	233	79	86	165	15	59	17	3	512	15.4	4214	0.71
Pierre-Marc Bouchard	2007	2009	MIN	234	49	117	166	19	36	13	0	444	11	3881	0.71
Dustin Brown	2007	2009	LAK	239	74	85	159	-49	40	32	2	706	10.5	4651	0.67
Travis Zajac	2008	2010	NJD	246	59	104	163	44	42	16	1	550	10.7	4559	0.66
Devin Setoguchi	2009	2011	SJS	223	73	69	142	14	50	23	0	610	12	3479	0.64
Nikolai Zherdev	2007	2009	TOT	235	59	92	151	-22	44	14	1	637	9.3	4120	0.64
Jussi Jokinen	2006	2008	TOT	235	47	98	145	-4	27	20	0	359	13.1	3280	0.62
Joe Pavelski	2007	2009	SJS	208	58	69	127	10	33	21	4	584	9.9	3365	0.61
Brandon Dubinsky	2009	2011	NYR	228	57	82	139	0	39	13	5	555	10.3	4271	0.61
Wojtek Wolski	2009	2011	TOT	231	49	93	142	14	43	5	1	499	9.8	3998	0.61
Andrei Kostitsyn	2008	2010	MTL	211	64	63	127	9	40	24	0	461	13.9	3321	0.6
Kris Versteeg	2009	2011	TOT	237	63	80	143	14	39	16	8	503	12.5	3990	0.6
Mikko Koivu	2006	2008	MIN	203	37	80	117	10	21	14	2	402	9.2	3474	0.58
Joffrey Lupul	2006	2008	TOT	218	64	63	127	-40	38	24	2	644	9.9	3630	0.58
Chris Higgins	2006	2008	MTL	223	72	56	128	-12	39	27	6	548	13.1	3717	0.57
Drew Stafford	2008	2010	BUF	214	50	67	117	10	35	15	0	467	10.7	3128	0.55
Patrick O'Sullivan	2008	2010	TOT	236	49	81	130	-49	36	8	5	670	7.3	4364	0.55
David Backes	2007	2009	STL	203	54	54	108	-8	41	11	2	426	12.7	3165	0.53
Ryan Kesler	2007	2009	VAN	210	53	59	112	10	35	14	4	444	11.9	3908	0.53
Lee Stempniak	2006	2008	STL	219	54	63	117	-12	38	16	0	428	12.6	3296	0.53
Nikolai Kulemin	2009	2011	TOR	233	61	63	124	-1	52	7	2	447	13.6	3705	0.53
Andrew Ladd	2008	2010	TOT	227	46	71	117	41	45	1	0	474	9.7	3108	0.52
Blake Wheeler	2009	2011	TOT	244	57	70	127	42	48	6	3	488	11.7	3720	0.52

The list has a very eclectic group of players. Some are bonafide first liners, like Mikko Koivu and Loui Eriksson. Some are second in command to Hall of Fame level centers, like Joe Pavelski and Ryan Kesler. Others, like ex-Rangers Nikolai Zherdev and Christopher Higgins, have been reduced to 3rd line role players.

From here, I could just grab the average salaries of these players and call it a day, but the truth is that very few on this list signed deals after their 24 year old season (just 6), and even fewer signed multi-year deals (only Loui Eriksson and Chris Higgins). That leaves us with a very uneven comparison of how Dubinsky's contract should be treated. Instead, I'm going to use the same tool I used in my Brad Richards article. That tool was GVT, or Goals versus Threshold. As a reminder, GVT is a statistic that measures a player's value above replacement level.

You'll see I also added a third group here, which is post-1999 season comparables using the same criteria, ages 22-24, 200 games played, between 0.51 and 0.71 points per game. This added Radek Dvorak, Patrick Marleau, Michal Handzus, Mark Parrish, Mike York, J.P. Dumont, Jochen Hecht, Brenden Morrow, and Kyle Calder to the above group. The addition was necessary to help smooth out the trendlines, and also give a better picture of the post-prime years.

The two comparable groups are fairly close in value (not surprising given the considerable overlap), showing an average peak at 26 years old of about 12.4 GVT, contributing around 10 over the course of the 'prime' years, and then tailing off around age 29-30. Brandon Dubinsky's trendline shows a much steeper ascent and descent, but the same general peak at around 12 GVT.

How does this translate to dollars? Rob Vollman showed that each GVT is worth $333k. Two years ago, that number was actually $344k, while last year it moved to $356k. Since GVT is by definition constant, it makes sense that as cap spending goes up, so would the amount spent per goal. With the cap increasing again this year, we could expect that number to in to increase again, to approximately $367k next year.

The trendline estimates that Dubinsky will be worth 46.67 GVT for the next 4 years, so at that spend rate, Dubinsky would be worth $17.129m over 4 years, for a cap hit of $4.28m per year. That number is right in line with the $4-4.5m that many have speculated he will sign for, given recent deals such as Andrew Ladd's. So we've shown that it would in fact be fair value for Brandon, as long as he continues to produce at the rate he's progressing to. If he follows the trend of Ryan Kesler (35.1 GVT over the last two years), he could actually be a considerable bargain.

The question is, will the Rangers feel the same way? Tell us what you think.

Special thanks to Tom Awad for making the GVT data readily available to the public.

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Comments

I love it when advanced statistics and fan consensus align.

George, this article made sweet love to my eyeballs before caressing my brain and leaving me with warm tingling in my shorts.

Thank you.

Your biggest fan

by Gabby the Gutless Sniper on Jul 14, 2011 6:19 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs

Agreed!

by wondermut on Jul 14, 2011 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions

also

best first comment for a thread. Nice!

GET RIPPED

"We'll Win Tonight" - The Captain

by Papa T on Jul 14, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

I always figured 4 years for $14M-$16M so I guess this analysis confirms it. Great job as always George. Thank you.

by Richter1994 on Jul 14, 2011 6:20 AM EDT reply actions

homegrown

Dubi is incredible on numerous levels… he throws himself in front of pucks and in to opponents he is the last one to leave the puck in the offensive zone without a fight he will defend any teammate with fist in a second. If that wasn’t enough he is selfless on the ice… how many times he had what I saw as a guarantee goal that he passed off to Cally for a sure thing (but more importantly helped out Cally’s confidence). I personally believe Dubi is a homegrown natural born leader who is almost priceless.

by Ranger McJersey on Jul 14, 2011 6:25 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

That’s great but it’s sort of irrelevant. I think most fans, me included would like to get him at around $4-4.5M. That was his value seems to be (Which these statistics sort of show) and what most fans think he is worth. It would be great to get him, somewhere in that price range. Would also be nice if they locked him in a long contract.

But all that really matters, is what the Rangers are willing, or want to pay, versus how much Dubinsky (Or his agent….) are asking for. I’m “guessing” the Rangers would like to get him @ around $4M, maybe a little cheaper. Also guessing that Dubinsky is asking for more then that. Considering how much he was asking for the last time his contract was up. (“He” way overvalued himself and I wouldn’t be surprised if that same thing happens again.).. Also the terrible way teams were throwing money at UFA’s this off-season doesn’t help (I know UFA-RFA is different but Leino got $4.5M?? Dubinsky is worth a lot more then him.)

I just hope the Rangers handle this the right way. Give him 4-6 years @ between $4M and $4.5M per. Hopefully Dubinsky wants to stay here and realizes that’s a great offer. I think the Glen has started to figure this shit out. I know how negotiations work but I’m hoping Dubinsky doesn’t overvalue himself as a $5M+ per year player. We should know soon how it all works out.

twitter.com/NYRangers365

by NYRangerFan718 on Jul 14, 2011 6:37 AM EDT reply actions

We need an edit button or something LOL.. That’s what** at the end of the 1st line.

twitter.com/NYRangers365

by NYRangerFan718 on Jul 14, 2011 6:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Not far off

…we are pretty much saying the same thing as long as he doesn’t start acting like an arrogant ass we want him for the long haul

by Ranger McJersey on Jul 14, 2011 6:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

But all that really matters, is what the Rangers are willing, or want to pay, versus how much Dubinsky (Or his agent….) are asking for.

I wouldn’t argue otherwise. I had no real idea what this was going to say, but I found it pretty interesting that this put his salary right in the middle of what everyone says. I found it a little comforting to know that it’s not likely to be the gross overpayment that initial reports of $4.5m were made out to be.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions

This is great. Definitely shows, stats wise, that he is worth around what most of us think he is. But he also brings more to the table then some of those other players listed. In his advantage.

With Boyle signed now, all the focus will be on working out a deal with Dubinsky first. So we’ll know fairly soon how this all works out.

twitter.com/NYRangers365

by NYRangerFan718 on Jul 14, 2011 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

sarcasm= Dubinsky is awful

4 years $14M sounds about right. hopefully this year Dubi takes it to the next level.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 14, 2011 8:31 AM EDT reply actions

I would be ecstatic if he follow the progression of Ryan Kesler or Loui Erickson…

by Peter North Stars on Jul 14, 2011 8:46 AM EDT reply actions

Just because of player type, Eriksson’s probably not a realistic fit, but Kesler sure could be, and as you see, Dubi’s been more productive per game. Things like ice time and such matter too, but if the Rangers can do what Vancouver did with Kesler (get him a checking center that can allow Kesler to get a bigger offensive role), they could certainly follow the path.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Nice work George.

I’d suspect that the NYR would love to get him on a 3 or 4 year deal for around 4mm.
Unless he’s asking for the moon, we should easily see a deal completed before next week.

by dbmaven on Jul 14, 2011 9:24 AM EDT reply actions

The Stache!
My question is, will it make an appearance next year?

I listen to Enter Sandman before taking exams. I wear the exact same jersey every Giants game. The Rangers goal song goes off in my head when I achieve small successes in life.

HEN-RIK

by BombersGmenBlueshirts25 on Jul 14, 2011 9:32 AM EDT reply actions

they gotta be in the playoff picture

by SeanI on Jul 14, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Hopefully that won’t be contested until the last day of the season for once…

I listen to Enter Sandman before taking exams. I wear the exact same jersey every Giants game. The Rangers goal song goes off in my head when I achieve small successes in life.

HEN-RIK

by BombersGmenBlueshirts25 on Jul 14, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions

you know your shit..

love it, and thanks for the care and research

by dank7 on Jul 14, 2011 9:47 AM EDT reply actions

Awesome work George!!

"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 14, 2011 9:51 AM EDT reply actions

George great post

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 9:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Now I like how you just showed comparables to Kesler as well as Wolski. Like I said before 4.15 mill per is what both he and Callahan are worth.
I also think its a telling sign that Loui Ericcson is the guy at the top of that list. A little time with Richards should send him on that track.
The only negative would be all those short handed goals but I think he could produce 25 goals per year easily. Also Pavelski and Kesler are around some hall of fame guys like you said. Now what the help is taking Sather so long?

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 10:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

The only time in my life have I heard someone say; the only negative is all those shorthanded goals

I thought scoring shorties was a good thing, silly me

by GAThingy on Jul 14, 2011 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Well, I mean in terms of comparing him to players like Kesler or Pavelski is that he had 5 shorties last year, which is roughly 20% of his goals for the year.
I can guarantee you that Sather is reminding Dubi’s agent of that everytime he enters the 4 million dollar range. It doesn’t take anything away from Dubinski, he worked his ASAP off for every goal he scored last year including the short handed ones.

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 1:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

What about the empty netters?

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 14, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Slope brain fart, that’s what I meant lmao. Empty netters. I needs me more sleep.

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 6:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

My bad GA I meant empty netters.

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 6:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I would love to see 5yrs 19 mil. 3.25, 3.25, 3.5, 4.5, 4.5. Keeps the cap hit down and allows him to get the 4.5 mil he will deserve in 2-3 yrs when he is hopefully putting up 60 pts a season. Plus he will still be able to hit the UFA market when he is only 29 or 30 and get another solid deal.

by BronxBeliever on Jul 14, 2011 9:58 AM EDT reply actions

Throw in a 1 million "signing bonus" if he promises to stache it up every post season he's under contract.
Under the table of course.

by Free2beljg on Jul 14, 2011 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

IMO...

Dubi and Cally are at least worth the same contract. It seems like the consensus is that dubi is worth more, but I think that Callahan would win more in arbitration if it came to that.

by Town on Jul 14, 2011 10:07 AM EDT reply actions

I have plans to bang out the same chart for Callahan before he signs. You’ll note he’s not actually on this list because it took him a little longer til get going (only 13p in 52g his 22 year old season).

I imagine his intangibles are going to spark a great deal more discussion about his true worth. I’d love to be in the room though if Callahan goes to arbitration, not sure how they can demean him in any way with a straight face.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Any idea how health factors into an arb hearing? While they’ve both had their share of injuries, part of the reason behind Cally’s 53 game season was a knee injury he suffered after getting sent down to Hartford. Add to that his missed time this season and could the Rangers make a case for a lower salary due to durability issues?

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

I was actually wondering the same thing. The only possible knock on Cally is his health. However, it’s not like he is injury prone per se, it is just a result of his style of play. I don’t care who you are, anyone taking a Chara slapshot to the leg will suffer a broken bone.

However, I don’t see it going to arbitration because the last thing the rangers want to do is mitigate the worth of their future captain. I think the rangers will at least match Dubi’s contract becuase I really do see Cally putting up at least 60 points it he plays in at least 70-73 games this season

by Town on Jul 14, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:
The player’s “overall performance” including statistics in all previous seasons.
Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
The player’s length of service with the team and in the NHL.
The player’s “overall contribution” to the team’s success or failure.
The player’s “special qualities of leadership or public appeal.”
The performance and salary of any player alleged to be “comparable” to the player in the dispute.

Not sure how accurate that is, it’s from about.com. That would say yes, games played will be their leg to stand on.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

I wonder how they would spin that against cally

‘cause it’s not like he has a “bad” hip or knee that can give out at any moment. Most of his injuries are a result of his hits and blocked shots, which are both done in the team’s interest.

by Town on Jul 14, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

As a statistician in training

I really like the measurement methods you use and love when you post articles like this. It is really a true picture of what is happening. Amazing job thank you.

by Kevin Murphy on Jul 14, 2011 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

Great work as always George

Just wondering if the Rangers and or Dubinsky can pull this article up and say “See, this guy says i should be making 4.3 mil a year”

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

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by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 10:58 AM EDT reply actions

Imagine Glenny Glen Glen with an enormous cigar blowing smoke in the room saying “now this guy seems to know his stuff here is what your worth” then he whips out the BB forum.

by Kevin Murphy on Jul 14, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

picturing Glen smoking a big cigar and whipping anything out

is a bad image

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Typically

it’s his big fat…………………………………………………..wallet.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Do we need our “cigar aficionado” magazine cover back again? lol

by Mr. Avery to you on Jul 14, 2011 2:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Brilliant George. Thanks again!

by voice22 on Jul 14, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions

great post, thanks George!

GET RIPPED

"We'll Win Tonight" - The Captain

by Papa T on Jul 14, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions

lets pay him the money, give him a bear hug and move on.

by voice22 on Jul 14, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

Great post

Even if he maintains his current production I think Dubi is worth 4.5mil. 50+ points is great with the energy and clutch goals (ala the only playoff win last season). Also I think Dubi and Cally are a package deal, they are not the same player without the other.

by smitty046 on Jul 14, 2011 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

yea, we also need to factor in the ripple effect of his hard work. guys like dubi, cally, prust and even avery, set the tone on this team.

by voice22 on Jul 14, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, there’s something comical about listing Zherdev and Wolski as comparables, but both were awarded $3.8m+ for strong seasons at a young age, so the math works, even if logically speaking they’re not the same kind of player, especially effort-wise. You can just argue the last half million there is just an effort reward.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

seemed pretty clear last season that Dubinsky needs Callahan on the ice with him. he looked lost when Callahan got hurt.

Shoot the puck Barry!!!

by dsteak on Jul 14, 2011 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

The prior seasons however it was the other way around.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

So they need each other?

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 14, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Dynamic duo…they can survive without each other but they thrive together

by Mr. Avery to you on Jul 14, 2011 2:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Is this a beginning of creation of the first NHL same sex couple?

It’s now legal in NY, you know….

"Ягр - мегазвезда мирового хоккея."
Советский Спорт

by 68 Forever on Jul 14, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought I did see them hand in hand at the front of the parade the day it became legal…

by Mr. Avery to you on Jul 14, 2011 2:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Would you trade Dubi and Cally for Semin and Backstrom?

No other permutations, just a straight two for two swap if cap considerations were not an issue.

Call me crazy, but I wouldn’t for a number of reasons. Knowing how much most of us like these guys as players, would be interesting to see where opinions fall.

by Gabby the Gutless Sniper on Jul 14, 2011 12:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

i wouldnt at all…two guys who go invisible for games on end along with gaborik?, no thanks

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

But even in their “invisible” year, they’re the more productive players. We can laugh at the Caps for flopping in the playoffs every year but what exactly have Callahan and Dubinsky led the Rangers to?

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

they’ve led us out of the old ways and into the start of building a better team

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Was it really them or the front office/coach? I think they’re the sample of a bigger process that includes finished products such as Staal, Girardi, Sauer, Anisimov and whomever else comes down the pipeline. It’s a process that’s been in place for a few years now.

I’m not trying to denigrate the contributions of Dubi and Cally in any way. But if that trade offer came from the Caps and somehow they got it to work within the salary cap I’d do it.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I would probably trade Dubinsky and Callahan straight up for Backstrom let alone for Backstrom and Semin.

by KingHenrik on Jul 14, 2011 1:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Would you trade Dubi and Cally for Semin and Backstrom?

No other permutations, just a straight two for two swap if cap considerations were not an issue.

Call me crazy, but I wouldn’t for a number of reasons. Knowing how much most of us like these guys as players, would be interesting to see where opinions fall.

by Gabby the Gutless Sniper on Jul 14, 2011 12:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Yes

Richards and Backstrom gives them a 1 and 1A center combo. While I’m not the biggest fan of the other Alex, his skill is a lot harder to acquire than Dubi or Cally’s.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 12:14 PM EDT reply actions

Heresy!

by Gabby the Gutless Sniper on Jul 14, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I think every other GM

Aside from the Caps GM would make that trade every time.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

If you were Ranger GM, would you sign off on trading Cally and Dubi for Semin and Backstrom?

No other permutations, just a straight two for two swap if cap considerations were not an issue.

Call me crazy, but I wouldn’t for a number of reasons.

Knowing how much most of us like these guys as players, would be interesting to see where opinions fall.

by Gabby the Gutless Sniper on Jul 14, 2011 12:14 PM EDT reply actions

We think you made your point

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, since its the third time I answer.

I would do the trade, although it would be very very very very very hard to swallow. You can’t pass up on skill like that.

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 14, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes for Backstrom. No for Semin. I am tired of “Enigmatic Russian Forward”s. Dubi for Backstrom in a heartbeat.

by Dan Shea on Jul 14, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Semin is only signed for one more year. You can swap him for picks.

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by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

red army – do you have special radar equipment that lets you know when any other team blog mentioned any Caps players, lol? It’s awesome how you manage to materialize when discussion turns towards Washington. Always good to see you here.

"To everybody else we're underdogs, but we go in thinking we can handle any team in the NHL."
Brandon Prust, #8, New York Rangers

by Joe1969 on Jul 14, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

No, but I live in my parents’ basement, sleep with spreadsheets, and don’t have a life.

(I have lots of free time, though I think that’ll change once I become an undergrad in the fall)

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Nahh, you’ll have even more spare time in college :)

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 14, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Not in a million years.

Semin has no character and disappears, just watch the final game against Tampa, where he’s just gliding around the ice and doesn’t bother to backcheck. I like Backstrom but he was strangely ineffective this past season. No way I trade two homegrown guys who have improved every year for these out-of-towners.

"To everybody else we're underdogs, but we go in thinking we can handle any team in the NHL."
Brandon Prust, #8, New York Rangers

by Joe1969 on Jul 14, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Umm ...

In a heartbeat. Sorry boys, Love Dubi and Cally but Backstrom is insane. Probably my favorite NHLer. Total package . I would also do it because Semin is on a one year deal and we could dangle him at the deadline for some serious picks or prospects in next years draft and I love what we have already.

Dubi for Backstrom-Yup
Cally for Backstrom-Yup

Cally for Semin-Nope
Dubi for Semin-Nope

by l.whit7873 on Jul 14, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I was kinda hoping...

that George would clearly point out that Dubi is only worth $2.5m

by one-bar on Jul 14, 2011 1:07 PM EDT reply actions

I’ll be honest, I kinda did too. There’s still hope Cally’s can say that.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Cally’s will show somewhere around the $3 – $3.5m range. Although, last year he was on pace to be our leader in points.

I guess my bigger question would be, do you see any team trying to pull either one of the players away? This price range would pull in a few 1st rounders, right?

by one-bar on Jul 14, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I have a feeling if Cally stops trying to block shots and stays healthy, he could score 30 this year.

"To everybody else we're underdogs, but we go in thinking we can handle any team in the NHL."
Brandon Prust, #8, New York Rangers

by Joe1969 on Jul 14, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

He was on pace to score 31 last season before he got hurt and missed 20+ games. He’s really started to come into his own these past two seasons.

by one-bar on Jul 14, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, with arbitration filed, they’re not eligible for offer sheets, so they won’t be poached.

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Tracking the Rangers - Numbers don't lie. They just don't agree with you.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I wasn’t aware of that. I thought as long as you’re not signed to a current deal anyone could sign you, but they’d have to pay compensation if you’re a RFA.

Good to know, that’ll make it easier to sleep at night.

by one-bar on Jul 14, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

that sounds familiar

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

You know who didn't file for arb

And is not protected from an offer sheet...STAMKOS!!!

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Did you know

marc staal has a brother

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Or that

this thread has a nice pace to it

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

sarcastic font is sarcastic

by Town on Jul 14, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Both should sign for 3.75

And realize that by doing so we will leave space for the TEAM to sign and keep more of it’s core.

Team not individual contracts is what the Homegrown discount is all about…

by l.whit7873 on Jul 14, 2011 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

Just beat me to it. That’s exactly how much both players should get

by nhl21 on Jul 14, 2011 1:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Discount?

I don’t think any up and coming player should give a team a discount. Veterans who have earned they’re money maybe. But these guys have a small window to maximize what they can make. Would you take 10% less salary so your company could hire someone else? I don’t think so.

Manning lobs it, Burress alone, touchdown New York!
For the empty net, Mark Messier... do you believe it?! Do you believe it?! He said we will win game 6 - he has just picked up the hat trick!

by Broheem NJ on Jul 14, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

they have the cap space.

according to cap geek with drury’s buyout and the Richards and Rupp contracts the rangers have 12.8mil in space. That’s plenty of room. If they both sign for 4.5 thats 3 mil in breathing room. Considering avery, prust and wolski and christensen are all off the books next year pending a resign, thats enough room to make a move or two.

by smitty046 on Jul 14, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Erixon’s not on the capgeek roster, and you still need to sign Boyle, and maybe a veteran D. Things will be tight if they both get $4.5m.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

i dont think he's worth that much.

Sure the numbers he produces are solid. But he’s a grinder, not a game breaker. Him and callahan need to be signed for 4 mill each MAXIMUM. There’s too many guys like kreider, mcilrath, erixon, thomes, hagelin. All those guys, provided they fullfill their potential will demand high slary to keep them around. Were gonna need the space to pay them.

by nhl21 on Jul 14, 2011 1:39 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

In the years

That it will take for those guys to hit the years of experience required for arb rights or unrestricted free agency the team will look very different. Next year alone they have about $8M in cap space opening up due to the expiration of contracts like Wolski, Avery, Christensen and the stepdown in Drury’s buyout cap hit. In 3 years you’ll have Girardi and Gaborik’s deals ending.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 14, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Just saw JT Miller going to OHL instead of North Dalota..thoughts?

by Mr. Avery to you on Jul 14, 2011 2:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

*Dakota

by Mr. Avery to you on Jul 14, 2011 2:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

too late…the joke has been made

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha damn you…you’re so fast I picture you as The Claw from Inspector Gadget sitting in a chair and all we see is your arm stroking your cat while in front of you there are twenty giant screens with Blueshirt Banter and Twitter and all kinds of other outlets on them that you are constantly ready to comment on and you monitor them all day and night

by Mr. Avery to you on Jul 14, 2011 3:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

it actually looks like this

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I knew it lol nice

by Mr. Avery to you on Jul 14, 2011 3:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

North Dalota? Sounds worse than North Dakota so its a smart move

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Article

can you do the same with callahan?

by thenyrangers on Jul 14, 2011 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, I’m planning on it, whether or not he signs in the meantime.

Blueshirt Banter - Where Rangers' Fans Matter
Tracking the Rangers - Numbers don't lie. They just don't agree with you.
Twitter: RangerSmurf

by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

cool

although i look forward to the article, im hoping it becomes obsolete

by thenyrangers on Jul 14, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny part about all this is that many of you want him at 3.75, 3.5 something around there, but why penny pinch our homegrown guys who have carried the team the past two years. 3.75 and 4.5 is the range but in terms of worrying about living up to the contracts, is anybody worried? Staal got 4 per and he can’t break 10 goals for the year. Sure he’s a shut down dman but dubi shuts down other lines and scores. Show him the money!

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 3:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Staal

they always say defenders take longer to develop than forwards. so maybe they figure staal is still a star in the making while dubi’s chances of breaking out are diminishing

by thenyrangers on Jul 14, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Why? Dubinsky’s numbers have improved each year with significance. Staal, as much as I love his play, hasn’t had the same climb. It may be apples to oranges, but I would take a bet that Brandon hits 70 points before Staal gets 45.

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 6:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

but why penny pinch our homegrown guys who have carried the team the past two years

So you can overspend on other guys. Might as well save money wherever you can and load up as much as possible.

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I don' t get that mentality

Also by overspend the difference would be a half million. You guys are willing to watch them Excel at the rate they have been going in another uniform for a half a mill? (Not you army, obviously you hope they leave, many teams covet these guys). Still don’t agree with the whole save where you can argument, it should be outside the organization. Reward good play and heart within the organization with a fair contract.

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 6:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I don’t mean that if you can’t save on them, you let them go. But the standard should be “let’s try to sign him for less than he’s worth.” I mean, why wouldn’t you? Many players won’t agree to that, but a few here and there and suddenly you’re Vancouver.

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Did you just criticize Staal for not scoring as much as Dubinsky? Oy

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Tracking the Rangers - Numbers don't lie. They just don't agree with you.
Twitter: RangerSmurf

by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 14, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Nope, I compared Staal getting 4 million for being a shut sown defenseman. So tell me what separates Dubi, Cally and Staal as hockey players. Let’s not overlook the statement, its not like I’m comparing a goalie to them. I’m just saying how can you justify Staal making 4 million and not Dubinsky and Callahan, both of whom play stellar defense and have a 60 point ceiling(or so it looks).

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 6:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

If Cally and Dubi are signed for 5yrs each at an average cap hit of 4 million, we should call that decent. If its less and we get to see more of the porn stache, its full of fucking win!!

Absolute Worst Ranger Fan!!!!!!....yet incredibly realistic and usually correct.

by earthworm on Jul 14, 2011 4:25 PM EDT reply actions

say what you will about the stats.....

but that stache is PRICELESS

by evworld on Jul 14, 2011 5:25 PM EDT reply actions

I think we can safely say that if Dubi plays on the pack line. His stache can play the top line pivot with Richards. That stache is a thing of beauty, I’d sign it to a separate contract if we had to.

by louielounz1 on Jul 14, 2011 6:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Nice work George, except...

for one thing: advanced stats are worthless in hockey :P

by NTB on Jul 14, 2011 6:44 PM EDT reply actions

George doesn't watch the game

he stays in the basement and works with his spread sheets

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

This is that sport where they have the little arch things in the grass and you have to hit a ball through them, right?

Blueshirt Banter - Where Rangers' Fans Matter
Tracking the Rangers - Numbers don't lie. They just don't agree with you.
Twitter: RangerSmurf

by George E. Ays on Jul 14, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

i think that’s soccer

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 14, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

3.75 is good for everyone.. long term deal 5 year 20 million maxx. 3.5. 3.75 4.00 4.25. 4.50 etc

thats that!!

and cally deserves the same 5 year 2o mill.. or 3.75 a year or two year 8.5 for dubi and a long term 5 year deal for callly bc. he just keeps get better and looks to put up 30 plus seasons ahead.. 5 year 20 million max… these guys have had injury problems…

by Stuart Pinnetti on Jul 15, 2011 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

cally could get a litlle more bc of numbers.. and work etic hitting etc...

by Stuart Pinnetti on Jul 15, 2011 12:28 AM EDT reply actions

i think any deal and numbers around 3.5 million is good for the rangers... we signed stall for 3.5 dont forget they re worth around the same the samet and girardi.. they ar

by Stuart Pinnetti on Jul 15, 2011 12:33 AM EDT reply actions

they arent worth much more than the other players maybe a little more but not a million more at least not now!! they need more to prove and stay healthy.. 3.5 3.75 is the key .. but 4million long term i could see for our future captain cally and dubi accepting 3.5. 3.75..

by Stuart Pinnetti on Jul 15, 2011 12:35 AM EDT reply actions

i think the arbitrator will say dubi and cally will get at least 4 mill so wolski might have to be bought out .

lohaus #54

by lohaus#54 on Jul 15, 2011 9:25 PM EDT reply actions

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