What Are They Worth - Ryan Callahan

by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 6:00 AM EDT in New York Rangers Analysis

This is the week of reckoning for the contract of Brandon Dubinsky, with his arbitration hearing scheduled for this Thursday, July 21st. There is an equally important arbitration hearing for the Rangers the following week, as Ryan Callahan's hearing comes the following Thursday. I already looked at the expected value of Brandon Dubinsky, and determined that a reasonable deal for him would be $4.28m for 4 years. Using similar methods, we'll determine what can be expected as Callahan moves through the prime of his career.

Just like last time, I ran a search on hockey-reference.com, searching for the combined seasons of all players who played at least 200 games, post lockout. This time the age range is from 23 to 25, representing Ryan's last three seasons. The list of 74 players is once again headed by Alex Ovechkin (304 points), down through Darrell Powe of Philadelphia. Then I narrowed the list to all those within 0.1 points of Callahan's point per game mark over that stretch (0.57).

The list of those players is after the jump.

Player	From	To	Tm	GP	G	A	PTS	GC	P/M	PIM	EV	PP	SH	S	S%	TOI	PPG
Jarret Stoll	2006	2008	EDM	214	49	94	143	51	-17	196	19	25	5	545	9.0	3888	0.67
Stephen Weiss	2007	2009	FLA	226	47	104	151	54	32	90	28	18	1	462	10.2	3957	0.67
Milan Michalek	2008	2010	TOT	222	69	77	146	57	18	117	47	19	3	575	12.0	4054	0.66
Joe Pavelski	2008	2010	SJS	229	69	81	150	58	7	100	45	19	5	701	9.8	3979	0.66
Tomas Plekanec	2006	2008	MTL	229	58	87	145	55	29	110	36	18	4	435	13.3	3647	0.63
Drew Stafford	2009	2011	BUF	212	65	66	131	52	20	98	40	25	0	543	12.0	3288	0.62
Andrew Ladd	2009	2011	TOT	245	61	85	146	56	18	134	50	9	2	538	11.3	3929	0.60
Scott Hartnell	2006	2008	TOT	225	71	59	130	54	29	356	38	30	3	537	13.2	3604	0.58
David Backes	2008	2010	STL	233	61	72	133	52	-18	370	45	14	2	500	12.2	3953	0.57
Ryan Callahan	2009	2011	NYR	218	64	61	125	51	-12	139	42	21	1	620	10.3	4070	0.57
Chris Higgins	2007	2009	MTL	200	61	52	113	47	-12	70	34	22	5	551	11.1	3533	0.57
Joffrey Lupul	2007	2009	TOT	216	61	63	124	51	-26	138	43	18	0	542	11.3	3522	0.57
Lee Stempniak	2007	2009	TOT	237	54	80	134	50	-14	106	40	14	0	499	10.8	3718	0.57
Andrei Kostitsyn	2009	2011	MTL	214	58	61	119	48	-3	118	41	17	0	501	11.6	3384	0.56
Clarke MacArthur	2009	2011	TOT	234	54	74	128	49	-23	142	38	15	1	391	13.8	3576	0.55
Tuomo Ruutu	2007	2009	TOT	227	53	71	124	48	8	265	38	15	0	405	13.1	3902	0.55
Tomas Fleischmann	2008	2010	WSH	217	52	66	118	46	-1	66	37	15	0	359	14.5	3154	0.54
Matt Stajan	2007	2009	TOR	240	41	86	127	45	-12	145	30	8	3	373	11.0	4161	0.53
Valtteri Filppula	2008	2010	DET	213	42	69	111	41	21	94	36	5	1	365	11.5	3614	0.52
Jiri Hudler	2007	2009	DET	239	51	73	124	47	34	78	39	12	0	393	13.0	2949	0.52
Jussi Jokinen	2007	2009	TOT	225	37	80	117	41	-16	64	23	14	0	353	10.5	3268	0.52
Alex Steen	2008	2010	TOT	225	47	70	117	44	-4	92	31	12	4	506	9.3	3805	0.52
Antoine Vermette	2006	2008	OTT	240	64	61	125	51	18	147	45	7	12	449	14.3	3665	0.52
Mason Raymond	2009	2011	VAN	224	51	64	115	44	10	82	36	14	1	559	9.1	3514	0.51
R.J. Umberger	2006	2008	PHI	228	49	67	116	45	-23	78	36	11	2	445	11.0	3465	0.51
Matthew Lombardi	2006	2008	CGY	218	40	68	108	40	3	163	24	8	8	429	9.3	3523	0.50
Petr Prucha	2006	2008	NYR	209	59	45	104	43	-1	84	33	26	0	355	16.6	2679	0.50

Since Dubinsky and Callahan are so often compared to each other, it makes sense that there's considerable overlap in comparable players, with names like Joe Pavelski, David Backes, and Drew Stafford appearing on both players' lists. Where they don't overlap, there are a number of solid 2nd line scoring options, such as Tuomo Ruutu, Scott Hartnell, and Mason Raymond. Plotting this group's Goals Versus Threshold yields the following graph (click to enlarge):

This graph looks a bit different than Dubinsky's, so let me explain why. In the Brad Richards and Brandon Dubinsky plots, I used the 82 game equivalents of their year to year GVT. That line is shown in purple here, and clearly would not work for the purposes of this study (well unless you think Callahan will retire the greatest player ever.). So to get a better projection, I instead used Callahan's actual GVT from season to season, shown in green. This gave a plot that more closely resembles his peer group (in red). The final line is an expansion of the peer group, including all players post 1999, which serves to give a glimpse of how they actually perform after age 30.

Going back to the Dubinsky chart, we saw a group that peaked at age 26 with about 12 GVT. This group shows a peak at 28 of around 10 GVT, although the trendlines show the peak should be closer to the 26/27 age. This past year, Callahan surpassed the play of this group, but injuries kept his numbers down to fit right alongside the group.

Assigning a dollar value to the data, the trend line says that Callahan will have a GVT of 34.39 over the next 4 years. Using the same $367k per GVT rate we used for Dubinsky, that means that the 4 year contract for Callahan would be $12.62m, or a cap hit of $3.155m. That's more than $1m less than Dubinsky, which seems out of line with public perception. This is where the note below the graph comes in. The comparison right now is not completely apples to apples.

Dubinsky's $4.28m was based on the assumption that he will play 82 games every year, while Callahan's is based on his current rate of games played, which has not been close to 82. We can adjust for that two ways. First, we could compare Dubinsky's actual GVT year to year, which gives an estimate of $15.03m, or a cap hit of $3.75m. The alternative is to use Callahan's last season 82 game GVT (10.6), and repeat it. That would also give a cap hit of $3.75m.

The end result in both cases says Dubinsky would be worth about $600k more than Callahan. Given the current market, I'm more inclined to go with the higher values, where Dubinsky stays at $4.28m, and Callahan comes in at $3.75m, for a combined total of around $8.03m, perfect for the Rangers team.

Voice your disagreements with Callahan's expected value below.

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Comments

But the reality is that both players will get about the same or Cally may even get a little more since you are buying one more year of FA with Cally than with Dubi. Both will be north of $4M per. I personally believe that Dubi has a bigger upside but Cally gets the sentimental consideration so it’s about even in $$.

by Richter1994 on Jul 18, 2011 6:10 AM EDT reply actions

Dubi Dollars > Cally Dollars makes sense.

Once again George, bravo on the write up.

Comparing these two is painful, like deciding whether your on Team Edward or Team Jacob in the Twilight debate. The angst is unbearable.

However, it is a business and the I think the data points to what most would agree is logical based on production. The one element left out from this process which would be brought up in arbitration and likely in contract value is Cally having slightly higher “intangibles”. I have no doubts that Dubinsky will get more money per than Cally if length is consistent in both deals, just think Cally could get a bit of cheddar for being who he is (the next captain IMO) closing the gap between the two by a bit.

by Gabby the Gutless Sniper on Jul 18, 2011 6:23 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I’m totally Team Cally, in case anyone cared.

by OmarLittle on Jul 18, 2011 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions

we don't need teams

haha. We have them both.

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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 18, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Joe, just putting it on the record that I have a bigger hetero man-crush on Cally than on Dubi.

by OmarLittle on Jul 18, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

:(...

did you really just compare the Rangers to Twilight….???

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This team has balls.

by Master Ov Brutality on Jul 19, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

What!!??

Numbers schmumbers. Nothing personal, George, but really, is any of this really relevant to Cally’s worth? To us fans, who just about to the “letter” want him to wear THE letter “C”, or to his teammates, or to the organization or even to the league for that matter? “Goals Versus Threshold”…C’mon! Where’s the stat column that’s labeled “Players Brave Enough to Go Down in Front Of A Chara Shot With Under A Minute To Go”? Did Jussi or Hartnell or Higgins or Prucha…Prucha?!?…ever even consider doing that let alone actually do it? Or how about: “Crushing Hits When the Game Is On the Line Or His Team His Flat?” Or “Clutch OT GWG’s vs. Cry Baby’s Pens?” Or even simply “Four Goal Games vs. The F’ers including a Goal-Line Water-Bottle Roofer?” (although with their goaltending, or lack thereof, that’s may not be such an accomplishment.)

I’m very serious. Quite simply, what exactly does a colorful Excel line graph truly mean when it ultimately concludes that Dubi is “worth” even just a $1 more than Cally. We all know that’s not the case. So, until you or somebody else can come up with a tangible way to compare the INtangibles, this stuff is about as relevant as BR’s +/- before coming to NY.

Sheesh! :(

by mgweissman on Jul 18, 2011 7:15 AM EDT reply actions

Slight Disagreement

Your point about intangibles is well taken. But the raw data is useful for creating a baseline comparison between various players. The discussion can then deviate and bring in intangibles like those you identify. Unfortunately, part of what makes Callahan such a great leader and asset also limits the amount of time he plays in a given year. His all out hustle, effort, sacrifice, leads to injuries, which also needs to be considered in a long-term deal.

by Blueshirts Rock on Jul 18, 2011 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Indeed

As much as I love Cally, its hard to justify paying him as much or more than Dubi when he’s on the ice less because he’s nursing his latest fracture.

by OmarLittle on Jul 18, 2011 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Thats bullshit, thats like saying Brian Leetch’s contract should have been less because he might slip and fall while getting out of a taxi. Callahan is clearly the leader of the team, he bleeds Ranger blue and has broken bones to support that. I love Dubi but his holdout a couple of seasons ago prevents me from putting him in the same catagory. Yes, I beleive he wants to be a Ranger but I think Cally is worth more. You question a guy who blocks shots and has been injuered twice last season………by blocking shots and sacrificing for the team? And say that makes him worth less in a contract? Isn’t that what you look for, the guy who gives it his all?

I question the meaning of what you said Blueshirts……..“his all out hustle , effort, sacrifice….leads to injuries which needs to be considered in a long term deal.”

Are you saying this should count against a player? Maybe you aren’t but I would take a guy like Callahan who played 110% every game and missed 15 to 20 because of injuries than have a guy who just wen t through the motions. And I have to beleive you reward that type of player becaue you can count on him when he is out there.

This is hockey and people get hurt, maybe not as often as they should but they get hurt if they play hard and sacrifice.

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by earthworm on Jul 18, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I seem to recall

Dubinsky’s hand exploding up in Calgary blocking a shot.

They both play hard nosed hockey, that’s why they’re fan favorites. In their overlapping tenures Dubinsky has proven that he can stay healthier and manage to contribute more.

I don’t really hold his contract holdout against Dubi. Who’s to say how much of that was influenced by his agent. And while we like to believe that players are going to remain loyal to their original team and say/do all the right things, it’s still their livelihood and a business decision. Professional athletes are in a very unique position to hold out and wait for money. I would imagine most of us in our professional lives would get fired or released if we used the same tactic.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

You can bet any arbitration hearing will include the number of games Callahan has missed and it won’t be a positive thing.

by NTB on Jul 18, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Right

I asked George during the post about Dubi about whether injuries and games missed can affect arb hearings and they can bring that up.

I understand that playing hard and blocking shots is an integral part of Cally’s game (as it should be for almost any player) but in 2 of his seasons with the Rangers he’s missed significant time. I’m aware that one of those seasons he injured his knee in Hartford, but nevertheless that still represents a risk to a longer term contract.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually that will hurt Callahan's case

why should sather commit multiple years and millions of dollars to a player who doesn’t put up big offensive numbers and doesn’t play a full season?

Yes we may love the sacrifices that Callahan makes for the team, but that doesn’t mean that he should be paid more for that risk than Dubinsky

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by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Rational matters of dollars and cents cannot be handled with such passion. I actually like Callahan more than Dubinsky personally, but as fans we cannot let our personal biases blind us from the reality. I want Callahan on this team until he retires, and I want him to wear the C, but I wouldn’t want Sather to overpay either.

by OmarLittle on Jul 18, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Sir Nicholas Nutcracker salutes you

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

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by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Always a blessing to get the approval of such a noble squirrel

by OmarLittle on Jul 18, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Posting on the fly, but just how did Cally get his last ankle fracture?

PRUSTOSTERONE!!!

by nathansfamous on Jul 18, 2011 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions

took a chara slap shot to the ankle

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

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by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I should have used the “sarcasm” highliter. This was in response to…
“As much as I love Cally, its hard to justify paying him as much or more than Dubi when he’s on the ice less because he’s nursing his latest fracture.” Cally was crazy and hardcore bleeding blue enough to block Cara’s shot.
8k…. BTW, going back a few weeks ago… I knew who Diodemete was , and especially Alex Trebek and the Jeopardy question. The word hyperbole, I am still trying to look up the definition. No, dont hit the ban button just yet.

PRUSTOSTERONE!!!

by nathansfamous on Jul 19, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

My only retort: paying top dollar for intangibles is a good part of what got Drury $7m.

At some point, performance matters. Cally’s obviously the guts of the team, and probably the future captain. It doesn’t mean he gets a blank check, nor does it necessarily mean he should get paid more than Dubinsky.

I’ll repeat what I’ve said a dozen times, in the end, all that matters is that their combined dollars are favorable, around $8-8.5m. Who gets more doesn’t matter, but if it were up to me, it’d be Dubi, and doing this work reinforced that in my mind.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 7:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

A good part of?

It was the reason

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by Joe Fortunato on Jul 18, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

He was coming off his career year, he got paid a good chunk because of that point total, the rest for intangibles

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by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 10:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I still think

it was 65% LLWS champion and 35% Sather confusing “Captain Clutch” with “Cap’n Crunch”

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

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by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

i think it was 100 percent little league world series

sather thought that it would translate to a conn smythe

Do you believe it?! Do you believe it?! He said we will win game 6, he has just picked up the hat trick!

by MMeiselman731 on Jul 19, 2011 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions

paying top dollar for intangibles is a good part of what got Drury $7m

Ouch! Too true, that.

While I want Cally to get a good contract, and he is my favorite Ranger, one of my biggest fears is that he will become Drury down the line, and people will be kvetching about him being overpaid, etc.

Thank you for the numbers. Your analysis was a fun and enlightening read! It’s much more enjoyable than opining without supporting (empirical) data.

by icespree on Jul 18, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

God I’m glad you’re not a GM. This is the most ridiculous post ever.

but really, is any of this really relevant to Cally’s worth?

Yes, yes, a million times yes… It is. Always. Absolutely. No argument. Don’t be stupid.

when it ultimately concludes that Dubi is "worth" even just a $1 more than Cally. We all know that’s not the case.

Please don’t lump the rest of us in with yourself.

You can’t base a players worth on the size of your fucking man crush on him. Players have to produce.

by j-red on Jul 18, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Flattery will get you everywhere

Thank you sooooo much for out-quoting me, j-red. I feel so honored. Not a virgin anymore, speaking of f***ing.

And how bout we go to arbitration on the whole “man crush”? Although, I have to confess that late at night, when no ones around, and a game has just ended, I do take out the flashlight, some KY, and playback the DVR while I’m under the covers, if you know what I mean (wink-wink)…..Oh Cally! Please! Dubi Dubi Du it to me, now! That’s the slot. Oh yes! Score, man, Score! OHHHH BABY! :)

Then it’s me who “produces”. :)

by mgweissman on Jul 20, 2011 4:25 AM EDT up reply actions

You wanna pay for "Intangibles"

we can resign Drury.

All of this is relevant because in the real world you pay for production, Dubinsky statistically should get more money since he has more of an offensive upside and Cally will be dropped down a bit since he’s a bit injury prone and he doesn’t have as much offensive talent

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

And we all know that Captain's C is poisonous

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

If you’re willing to pay $7m, I’ve got lots of intangibles too. Can’t skate worth a lick and my eye-hand coordination got me flunked out of college golf, buuuut I do have intangibles.

by icespree on Jul 18, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate when people question Petr Prucha’s heart because they don’t understand how hard the kid worked.

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by Tripodi on Jul 19, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t… I think he got unfairly Prucha’d (a term I coined to describe how Lisin was treated.)

by Hoggo on Jul 19, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

but Lisin was way worse in every way.

In Prust we Trust
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This team has balls.

by Master Ov Brutality on Jul 19, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Take that chart down right now!

Chris Higgins is right next to Cally – can’t have that scrub rubbing off on Cally.

Seriously though, great analysis on both guys. I think we all want them both at about $4M each but slicing and dicing it with the numbers always paints a clearer picture of where they should be (especially with our biased opinions on each). As your signature says – the numbers don’t lie – and in negotiations, I’m sure the numbers are paramount. Here’s to hearing something good on Dubi in the next couple days.

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by Broheem NJ on Jul 18, 2011 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

i like 3.75 for cally

I also like 3.75 for dubi. I get what the numbers say but I’m just not comfortable with 4.5. Id much prefer to see callahan get the pay inflation, not dubi

by nhl21 on Jul 18, 2011 9:55 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

If they're buying out UFA years

It will certainly push the number closer and mostly likely above 4M. This is Cally’s last year of RFA, given that there were plenty of teams throwing around inflated contracts, I’m looking at your Florida, they’re going to have to offer something to keep him from fielding larger offers next year.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

If they’re buying out ufa yrs I can live w mor money. Makes sense. I still reserve that he’s worth less than what market value might say. Its an unfortunate reality that others stupidity will likely cost us more but in terms of what he’s really worth and not based on inflated other contract, id say its still under 4mil

by nhl21 on Jul 18, 2011 11:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Great post once again George

We were all looking forward to this after the Dubinsky write up.

I agree with the assessment that Callahan gets payed slightly less than Dubinsky for a couple of reasons some which you have mentioned. Virtually this year had they been healthy all year, Dubinsky could have 25 goals and 40 assists and Callahan could have had 31 goals and 30 assists. With that said, Callahan is a year older(which is good for him because he has less RFA years but bad because he has probably hit his ceiling) while Dubinsky’s camp can make a case that he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet. Callahan can have a season like last years(which would be considered really good, IMO) but I don’t think he will surpass the 30 goals he was on pace for if he didn’t get injured. Dubi has proven to be the more durable player but only by like 20 games, which isn’t much.
I still think, like you stated, they are virtually the same player which is why they get thrown in with Pavelski, Backes and Higgins(ugh) and I don’t see why Callahan cant get 5 years at 20 million, similar to Staals contract. If Dubi gets 5 at 21.25, I believe those contracts are both fair enough to lock them down.

by louielounz1 on Jul 18, 2011 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

Great work George!

I agree with the numbers that you came to a conclusion on. Callahan’s injury history will definitely be a focal point in contract negotiations, just as his intangibles will be on the other side.

As much as we love players, they need to produce. If we start throwing excess money at a player due to intangibles, we come away with another Drury in 5 years, and no one wants Cally to turn into Drury.

An extra 500k or so, or maybe even 1 mil for all the things he does for the team is fine, especially if he is slated to be captain. But once you get past there, its an overpayment. Now, if were talking about buying out UFA years, than Cally’s contract will get an extra bump that Dubinsky’s will not. Due to this, I see them getting very similar contracts, maybe even the same amount to avoid fussing :)

Anywhere between 3.75-4.25 for each should be great, right in the 7.5-8.5 category for them combined.

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LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 18, 2011 11:37 AM EDT reply actions

And THIS is why you can’t go simply by “the numbers”

Callahan will absolutely make more than 3.75, and I don’t think a single Rangers fan will be upset by it. He’s worth every penny… even more than Dubinski in the eyes of myself and many others.

Pierre McGuire needs to go away.

by MartyEqualsPansy on Jul 18, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

Why?

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

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by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Because.

Callahan contributes a bit more on special teams, is always very high on the block and hit leaders list, has 30-goal potential, and he is our next captain

Also, Dubinsky had ONE more goal than Callahan last year, even tho Ryan played in about 15 fewer games. Yet Duby is worth a lot more… according to “THE NUMBERS”.

There’s much more to gauge than what these numbers provide us with. Sometimes you can’t appreciate a player simply by looking at his goal/threshold graphs. He’ll get more than 3.75, and rightfully so.

Pierre McGuire needs to go away.

by MartyEqualsPansy on Jul 18, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Conversely

Dubinsky seems to contribute more at even strength. Which is where the majority of the game is played.

He can also slot in at center and was used on some important faceoffs. That adds to a level of versatility that Callahan doesn’t possess.

Most fans love both guys. They have overlapping skill sets and plenty of arguments can be made for and against why one should be paid more than the other.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Quality centers are definitely hard to come by in the league right now. But with Richards, Anisimov, Stepan – the team is looking pretty good down the middle. If anything, his ability at Center could have easily earned him a nice-sized offer sheet from a team lacking in that area (which thankfully we avoided).

Pierre McGuire needs to go away.

by MartyEqualsPansy on Jul 18, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

How many

Offer sheets have been made this year?

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Haven’t read about a single one. Even Stamkos and Doughty have gone without. I figured with the lack of good centers out there, Dubi would have been a great target for one. I’m surprised Toronto didn’t jump on it before arbitration was filed. Toronto is always trigger happy.

Pierre McGuire needs to go away.

by MartyEqualsPansy on Jul 18, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Off the top of my head

There’s been only handful in the post lockout era. Penner from Edmonton where the Ducks let him walk. Vanek from Edmonton, which the Sabres matched. Hjarmalsson from SJ which the Hawks matched.

While a perfectly legal tactic, I think there’s the proverbial “unwritten rule” about offer sheets which pretty much all GMs adhere to.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

And the infamous Kessel saga — going from Boston to Toronto !

Pierre McGuire needs to go away.

by MartyEqualsPansy on Jul 18, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Kessel never signed an offer sheet. There were talks that he had one, but that was a trade, technically speaking.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

So there’s something wrong with a number that attempts (but does not completely succeed, IMO) in fully capturing a player’s worth, and then you site simply each player’s goal total as one reason Cally should earn more. You do understand the hypocrisy there, right?

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by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Simple math > complex math

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Why argue the point? It’s an illogical argument based on an irrational premise.

The type of analysis that George did would be the basis of what both the Rangers’ and either player’s camp will bring to an arbitration hearing if it comes to it.

Saying “Callahan contributes a bit more on special teams” and has 30- goal potential is pointless. What is “contributes a bit more?” And doesn’t scoring 23 goals give Dubinsky 30 goal potential?

You can’t argue subjectivity with no evidence.

by Hoggo on Jul 18, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

If you feel the need for solid concrete numbers, then go look up special teams TOI & shot blocks. That’ll clearly explain how he “contributes a bit more.”

I didn’t know I was submitting my comment to the arbitration hearing directly. Had I known, I would have been more specific and detailed.

Pierre McGuire needs to go away.

by MartyEqualsPansy on Jul 18, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

TOI and shot blocks are fine stats to use for a defenseman because it shows how much offense they prevent. Callahan is a forward, and you measure forwards by how they contribute to the offense, Dubinsky projects to contribute more offense and that is what you bet on going forward which is why Dubi should make more money than Callahan

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

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A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

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by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, averge time on ice

All situations Power play Short-handed
Dubinsky- 20;13 3:04 2:05
Callahan- 19:54 3:23 2:13

So 19 more seconds on the power play, which is less than one shift, and 8 more seconds on the penalty kill. Those numbers aren’t significant. Also, I don’t really want my second-liners blocking hundreds of shots. Great to prevent defense, but it also leaves you missing 22 games in the season.

by Hoggo on Jul 18, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s no hypocrisy at all … and that’s quite the strong word.

It’s exactly as I stated – his detailed corsi gvt numbers don’t properly represent him.

Yes, I listed a goal total, because frankly, if GOALS aren’t right at the top of your list when looking at what an offensive player is worth, then you’re crazy. He clearly has 30-goal potential, and came relatively close to it this year having played just over 70s games.

BUT clearly I didn’t “site simply each player’s goal total” as you inaccurately point out. I simply used it as an argument, along with other factors. I also pointed out his invaluable leadership qualities, his special teams contributions, the fact that he hits anything that moves, and his constant shot blocking. He’s the type of player you build a team around, and deserves more than 3.75 per year…

If you read that as simply goal totals, then by all means, I surrender in this argument.

Pierre McGuire needs to go away.

by MartyEqualsPansy on Jul 18, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, I listed a goal total, because frankly, if GOALS aren’t right at the top of your list when looking at what an offensive player is worth, then you’re crazy.

Then call me crazy, because assists are pretty darn important, and I’d certainly put points ahead of goals. Even if you want to eliminate the often not-repeatable secondary assist, I’d still take the G+primary A over just goals.

For the special teams TOI, the two players were separated by 19 seconds a game (with Dubinsky getting more time). The 27 seconds extra that Cally plays on special teams don’t outweigh the extra 46 Dubi gets at ES, where most of the game is played.

As for the other qualities, hits and shots blocked, relative to the league, are heavily influenced by the MSG scorer, who credits both like they’re going out of style. I put little faith in those stats, and even less when evaluating the worth of a player. I would say the good majority agree, since I didn’t see anyone arguing Boyle should get more money for leading the team’s forwards in hits/blocked shots.

There are certainly other factors beyond just GVT, and yes, ‘leadership’ is one. Although with the amount of people arguing Dubi should get a letter as well, I’m not sure that the separation in leadership would make up the difference either.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn

You beat me to this reply.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

what he said

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Callahan averaged .8 points per game last season.

Dubinsky averaged .7 PPG.

Not that it’s a huge difference, but I’m just throwing that out there since you feel points are more valuable than goals.

He deserves more than 3.7 per year. And I’m pretty sure within the next couple weeks, he’ll get it. If ever there was a player worth spending money on, it’s Ryan Callahan. There’s absolutely zero scientific or mathamatical evidence to back that up… but I’m pretty sure majority of fans (and the team) would agree.

Pierre McGuire needs to go away.

by MartyEqualsPansy on Jul 18, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Still disagree

Even though he’s most likely getting a multiyear deal. I’d like to see him play two straight seasons of at least 75 games in a row.

by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Jul 18, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Not that it’s a huge difference, but I’m just throwing that out there since you feel points are more valuable than goals.

That’s why I used a sample size of bigger than one season. Dubi’s last 3 years and career averages are both higher than Callahan. Cally had a solid year, and especially coming back from the first injury he was absolutely lights out. No doubt about that. He’s also a year older, and that is a bit relevant while tracing their career arcs.

I feel like I need to repeat myself again…I don’t honestly care if Callahan gets more money, the two are one entity effectively. I didn’t do this because I wanted to prove anything. I did a 4-part series last year on these two just because they’re fascinating in how similar, yet different they both are. This just adds to that info, and I’ll probably do at least one more piece on the two of them at some point.

I don’t think $3.75m is unreasonable, but if it’s $4.25m, I’m not going to quibble. The team overpays guys by $500k all the time, it would be nice to see them do it to someone that’s really part of the core for once.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

However, the numbers do give us a framework for discussion. They give us a starting point with the $, and let us discuss intangibles from there and come up with a realistic contract.

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 18, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

So...

We get Cally and Dubi for like 8-8.5 mil for 4 years? sign me up! Regardless of the charts we all know that these 2 guys are so important to our success and even if we pay Cally/Dubi a little more then is needed it is not going to bite us in the ass. What does that leave us cap wise for a 7th D-man 1.5 mil? Who?

by Duballahan on Jul 18, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

Well a few things need to be considered. If they get lets say 9 mil between the two, and Erixon makes the team, a move might have to be made in order to sign a vet. It could be to send MZA down (1.7 mil contract) and replace him with a cheaper options (thomas/hagelin), send christensen down, or potentially buy out Wolski, which I do not think will be done.

Were playing with pennies here. The difference between Duballahan getting 8 mil and 9 mil can decide what the rest of the team could look like.

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 18, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Fail George...

What happened to $2.5m? These numbers are all lies. None of it makes any sense. GVT? That’s not even a real word.

On top of all this nonsense, you forgot to factor in the homegrown Sather discount… where any player who is brought up through NY’s system is forced to take 33% less than their market value (to compensate for those high-priced FAs who get money thrown at them).

Therefore, $2.5m sounds about right based on your numbers.

by one-bar on Jul 18, 2011 1:30 PM EDT reply actions

Someone’s angry today.

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 18, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

you forgot to use the sarcasm font

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

That would imply I was being sarcastic.

by one-bar on Jul 18, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

where any player who is brought up through NY’s system is forced to take 33% less than their market value (to compensate for those high-priced FAs who get money thrown at them).

Where did you get 33%

And their contracts will likely take off UFA years too, right? Not just RFA years.

Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.

by red army line on Jul 18, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

probably somewhere in or in the vicinity of his ass

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This team has balls.

by Master Ov Brutality on Jul 19, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

The fact that this very straightforward and uncontroversial graph and article by George (excellent for purposes of clarification and a good jumping off point for discussion) is causing this degree of grumpiness indicates to me that this endless off-season is starting to chip away at our sanity.

"To everybody else we're underdogs, but we go in thinking we can handle any team in the NHL."
Brandon Prust, #8, New York Rangers

by Joe1969 on Jul 18, 2011 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

As soon as I saw the initial result (the $3.155m) I said to myself “oh, this is going to piss some people off.”

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by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I think $3.75m sounds right though. I believe that’s what the initial thinking was before your analysis, right?

by one-bar on Jul 18, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Came in a little lower than I expected, even after adjusting. I think the explanation is it’s a pretty big deal to be putting up better boxscore numbers at a younger age. Otherwise, I don’t know why there’d be such a large gap between the two comparable groups, especially given the overlap.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 18, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

It is somewhat interesting that one of the primary reasons (blocking shots) that some people give for wanting Cally to earn more may in fact be why he ends up earning less due to the missed games.

"To everybody else we're underdogs, but we go in thinking we can handle any team in the NHL."
Brandon Prust, #8, New York Rangers

by Joe1969 on Jul 18, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

You’re making a huge presumption that there was any sanity to begin with…..

by dbmaven on Jul 18, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

All too true

Lol

"To everybody else we're underdogs, but we go in thinking we can handle any team in the NHL."
Brandon Prust, #8, New York Rangers

by Joe1969 on Jul 18, 2011 10:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

sanity is a very insane concept around here

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 18, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Why do the fans want to see a second liner as the Rangers captain

Really? I have nothing against Callahan, instead I think he is one of the best players on this team but IMHO the captain should be someoone who plays on the first line (if he is forward) and leads the team by example.
Let’s admit that Callahan is a second liner with virtually no potential of being a first liner. So why not to wait a year and see if Richards or Gaborik can be a captain. One is signed through 2020, another one is sign through 2015. Or we might end up handling the captaincy a la the devils who gave it to Elias then took it away from him and gave it to Langen…whatever the name was.
Look at most of the teams in the league…if the captain is a forward he is a point leader most of the time.
Again, I like Callahan and have nothing against him.

"Ягр - мегазвезда мирового хоккея."
Советский Спорт

by 68 Forever on Jul 18, 2011 7:58 PM EDT reply actions

Non-first line captains
Andrew Ladd (was a career third liner, named captain before he was moved up to the first line)
Brendan Morrow
Mike Richards (essentially the third line center for a while behind Briere and Giroux)
Vinny Lecavalier
Brian Gionta

by Hoggo on Jul 18, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah...

how about craig rivet (before being waived by Bufaflo last year)…..and eric brewer (also a C before his trade to TB)…..hmm who else?

Shawn Horcoff? Mikko Koivu? Then again i guess these guys could be on the first line on their respective teams…but not many others.

In Prust we Trust
"It's just pain."
This team has balls.

by Master Ov Brutality on Jul 19, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Koivu was the first line center for the Wild… I think he’s a legit NHL first liner

by Hoggo on Jul 19, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

he's def good....

but i just dont know if he’s as good as he is on the Wild…on a team with a little more scoring fromt he rest of the team….i believe at 206 goals last year, only 4 other teams scored less (EDM, FLA, OTT, NJD).

so i wont deny he’d be a good option on the first line some places…but being a first liner on the 5th worst scoring team in the league doesnt say too much.

In Prust we Trust
"It's just pain."
This team has balls.

by Master Ov Brutality on Jul 19, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Koivu’s legit.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 19, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

ALRIGHT!1!

fine he’s legit….but at the very least i can’t see him Captain on a lot of other teams.

def not trying to dispute his legitamacy…personally think he’s a solid player…but saying he’s a first liner/captain on better teams is def a reach, despite legitimacy and all considered.

In Prust we Trust
"It's just pain."
This team has balls.

by Master Ov Brutality on Jul 19, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

1st liner’s not a stretch, he’s a 70 point guy on an offensively challenged team.

Captaincy’s pretty arbitrary. Of course he’s not necessarily going to be a captain on a better team, but neither is Ladd, Gionta, or Callahan for that matter, and if you trade Joe Thornton to the Red Wings tomorrow, he’s not going to be the captain either.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 19, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Because...

1) The NHL rules stipulate that a Captain be designated, so it cannot be postponed.
2) What the heck do lines really mean in “TortorellaLand”, esp. 1st vs. 2nd?
3) As you’ve seen from most of the posts, intangibles need to be a strong consideration. And Cally destroys most of the team in that dept. Gloves down! And I’m not talking about just wanting to do something at a key point or even being outspoken in the locker room or on the bench. I mean genuinely having the forethought to do what’s needed when necessary and then executing on it. A classic example is Keenan’s Game 6 time-out when he so eloquently said nothing! yes he was the coach, but the point is the same.

Oh and BTW, saying you have nothing against Cally when earlier you said he has no potential of being a first liner – kinda contradictory. :(

by mgweissman on Jul 20, 2011 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ll disagree with your third point. Especially the part about first liners vs liking a player.

It is possible to have nothing against a player but still believe he isn’t a 1st line player. For example, do you love Brandon Prust? I sure do, as does most of the fanbase. HOWEVER, he is my no stretch of the imagination a first line player.

It is arguable that Callahan is, but most would argue against it while still loving everything he brings to the table.

LET'S GO RANGERS!!!

by Moshe52792 on Jul 20, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Touche!

Well rebutted. Although, I don’t really love Brandon. It’s more of a highly regard for me at this point. :)

by mgweissman on Jul 22, 2011 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions

BTW...

The first half of your screen name is my Hebrew name. All hail Moses. :)

by mgweissman on Jul 22, 2011 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the write-up, George...

I was hoping and looking forward to seeing something like this, esp. after seeing your write-up on Dubinsky. I respect your opinion on this matter as much as anyone on this site and I was glad to see my predictions closely mirrored by what you foresaw. Although, the reasoning behind your hypothesis is much better developed.

I think a lot of Ranger fans want to see the same contract given to Dubinsky and Callahan, both in terms of money and years (even if they have a preference for one over the other). Many Ranger fans regard them as “core” players moving forward with almost identical value to the team moving forward. They are discussed and compared with each other in a lot of respects (i.e. the Captaincy, their defensive responsibility, their hard work ethic and willingness to fight, etc…). That said, I do appreciate their subtle differences.

I don’t think I’m the only one who wants to eliminate even the impression of potential jealousy by awarding one a bigger contract than the other. Don’t get me wrong, I think that they are both great character guys and professionals and I don’t think that this notion will enter of take hold in their heads. But, since their contracts will be awarded so close together and the fact that they are so comparable, it will be easy for fans to view the gap between the contracts as a validation or rejection of some very minor difference between the two by the “powers that be” in Rangers management.

"Clever is the eunuch version of funny"

by NYRBlue on Jul 18, 2011 8:51 PM EDT reply actions

3.75 is fair 4 million for both

5 year 4 million deal is desreved for both… get it done….. ! or

by Stuart Pinnetti on Jul 18, 2011 9:09 PM EDT reply actions

5million.. 4.25 should be the cap limit for long term deals for both..

by Stuart Pinnetti on Jul 18, 2011 9:10 PM EDT reply actions

love the writeup smurf.
A couple things to point out:
First off when you assume 367K per GVT rate you fail to take into account the likely to decrease salary cap starting next year, thus making that number a bit inflated more than likely for the remainder of the contract.
Additionally, since dubi and cally are both RFA’s shouldnt they be had at a discount rate for at least callys first and dubis first two years? According to this analysis they do not belong at 4m for their RFA years, especially for cally.
For dubi i think 5/19.8 is fair with a breakdown looking something like 3.5, 3.8, 4, 4.25, 4.25. If he wants lockout protection that shouldnt be a problem, as you can convert most of the second year salary to a signing bonus due next june 30.
for cally i think something like 4/15.25 is reasonable breaking down something like 3.5, 3.75, 4, 4

by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jul 19, 2011 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

On the first point, any rollback in cap will likely result in a rollback in salaries as well (though maybe not proportionally). I don’t know that it’s a big sticking point, but that’s a fair criticism. The adjusting based on cap was something that deviates from Rob V’s initial assessment that GVS (goals versus salary) should have a constant factor.

On the second, discounting the appropriate years by the RFA 40% would knock Dubi down to $3.42m and Cally to $3.375m, which definitely closes the gap. I think those values are too low though. I would have to actually differentiate RFA/UFAs w/ money spent and GVT, which would be easier if I knew how to script those things, but I don’t.

Your approximations for each contract are probably close after the RFA adjustment is properly done. I’ll just attribute the extra $300k I paid Dubinsky to NY tax.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 19, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

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