New York Rangers Prospects: J.T. Miller Review
As announced on August 1st, prospect guru Russ Cohen will be giving us some insight on some of the New York Rangers top prospects and draft picks this month. For those of you who don't know Cohen is an author http://www.amazon.com/Russ-
J.T. Miller, Good Pick or Safe Pick? By Russ Cohen
When J.T. Miller was drafted by the New York Rangers back in June, he was taken 15th overall and some players drafted after him certainly possess better offensive skills like Buffalo's Joel Armia, Montreal's Nathan Beaulieu (an offensive defenseman), and Chicago's Mark McNeill to name a few.
"I was definitely a little bit shocked," said Miller. "I only had one meeting with them so I guess I wasn't really expecting anything."
Miller is a 6-1, 200 pound left winger who clearly has what it takes to make it to the NHL - - he has the moxy and he's a good two-way player already. With that said is it a good move to take a guy who may only be a third liner with that pick or should the team have shot higher, taking a player with a much higher ceiling?
He played for the NTDP which plays a lot of games in the USHL and because they play for USA Hockey he got to play with elite players with access to elite trainers. He is a very hard worker who has a great work ethic on and off the ice and he's a "character" guy.
"I think I'm a pretty competitive kid. I always want to compete and I'm pretty hard to play against. That might be my best attribute," he said confidently.
He performed well in the last U-18 tournament and the fact that he is going to play for the very solid, Plymouth Whalers are both pluses. He's also making a bid to be a member of this year's U-20 World Junior Championship team. If he makes it that would give him some more valuable experience that will stick with him for all of his playing days.
There is something to be said about a player who works hard and can score "dirty goals". The Rangers know that at worst Miller is a third liner and at best a second liner, but most people feel that he has the makeup to play in the National Hockey League someday. That time is years away and right now he is taking all the right steps to improve as a player. With a little luck fans should get to see him playing at the new and improved MSG in the future.
Check out J.T. right after he was drafted
http://www.youtube.com/user/CardCornerClub#p/u/5/XaIpXBiR7dE
Russ Cohen is an author http://www.amazon.com/Russ-
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Drafting a player with a supposed 2nd line ceiling in the first round
seems like a totally uninspired and gutless pick—I hope this guy is wrong and the FO has higher expectations
from what i have seen if he turns out to be a good 2nd liner i would be more than happy
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Aug 12, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
yah
i wanted them to draft armia. he may be the next zherdev but i have more confidence in him and now hes on a stacked offensive buffalo team
cautiously hopeful but it sounds like malhotra part two
minus muckler around to put a clamp down on the kid before he steps on the ice
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i mean
miller wasnt a bad choice. for 15 he was a safe pick and with his skill set he could be one of the best 2 way forwards. just look at parise they have the same build and makeup
don’t really see someone that raw as a “safe” pick. there is quite a bit of projection with him and less certainty, hence the face that he is not too close to being nhl ready
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Aug 12, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Don’t hate the pick but enough with the guys that can score the “dirty goals”. I’d like to see a few more Rangers that can score the clean and pretty ones.
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If he is Dubinsky or Callahan part two I will be satisfied. That said, I doubt he is, guys drafted 15th usually aren’t. Let’s hope he takes his game to the next level where ever he plays this year, then dominates in the ahl next year. Let’s give him a chance even though we all deep down inside wished they picked mcniel or armia.
by louielounz1 on Aug 11, 2011 10:41 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Agreed, gotta trust the front office, whose hockey knowledge far surpasses mine. From what I do know, The pick kind of puzzles me. If he’s not a potential first line talent, what’s the point? The pack line is still young, so where does he fit? Did we really pick a third-liner in the first round?
I guess I’m just not looking at this from the right perspective or I just don’t have the insight.
Yeah, its kind of a head scratcher but maybe this is what the org. is doing nowadays. Coming to terms with the fact that two way guys with upside are just as valuable as enigmatic forwards that cant d-up for shit. Maybe with Thomas, Kreider and Hagelin they figured let’s get a guy that can dominate 3rd line opposition in the future. Potentially two years from now…our Lines can look like:
Stepan/Richards/ Gabby
Dubi/AA/Cally
Kreider/Miller/Hagelin?Thomas?
I was thinking the pick might be a big gamble with no repercussions, if he doesn’t pan out there is still much left in the prospect dept.
by louielounz1 on Aug 11, 2011 11:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The repurcussions are...
if Armia or McNeill turn out to be legitimate 1st line forwards, and we lost the opportunity to have:
Armia or McNeill/Richards/Gabby
Dubi/AA/Cally
Kreider/Step/Hagelin or Thomas
yah thats what puzzled me except for the fact that we actually have a lot of first and second line prospect. miller can be a brian boyle type with the dirty goals and he also has a real nice shot. i dont see y he cant be a good nhl-er. i do however think that miller will have a longer career than both armia and mcneill so i think that sas part of it too. miller is more well rounded then those 2
I think we would all like to see our first round pick be a first line player. But the problem is, thats rarely the case. If you look at the first round picks from 1998 to 2006 there are typically 3 – 5 All Stars drafted in the first round (in 2003 there were 12 drafted). The odds of drafting a big difference maker in the first round are pretty slim (16.67%). I think the Rangers have looked at the first round pick as a measure of their talent and likely hood to achieve that talent (kind of like expected value for finances) and realized that Miller probably has the most achievable upside. Especially in a draft class that was considered pretty weak, getting a little more certainty is not a bad thing. With that being said I still would have prefered McNeil.
great points
But rarely do teams draft first rounders KNOWING they will never be first line players—I hope this isn’t the case with Miller
+1
Then again, Kreider has been rated over the last couple of years as a potential 1st liner, which he was not when he was drafted. Maybe the same is the case with Miller. I hope Clark et al knew what they were doing. They seem to have hit well with Kreider and Thomas, although in my opinion the jury is still very much out on taking McWrath over Fowler last year.
Neither kreider nor thomas have done anything on the pro level, so the jury is still out on them.
Remember nigel dawes was a goal scoring machine on the minors and ahl, and that didn’t exactly pan out.
by GAThingy on Aug 11, 2011 8:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I thought we agreed to look at this year's draft
As Erixon being essentially the true first round pick and Miller being a safe pick.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 11, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions
Safe meaning a guy that most likely will play in the league but not be a stand out. Erixon seems like he’s being ticketed to be a top 4, maybe even top pair guy. If he only stays as a #4 or bottom pair D then he’ll have disappointed to some extent. Especially considering he was projected to be a top 10 pick in this year’s draft.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 11, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
ah i see what you're saying
But that IS relatively safe for our first rounders lately. (not many have thrived or are in the NHL yet)
Don't forget that was essentially drafted both Erixon and Miller in the first round.
I would personally rather have McNeil, but thats just me. Until proven otherwise, I’m going to trust the front office. They have a lot more hockey knowledge than I do, and I doubt that’s going to change.
Even if he turns out to be a 2nd/3rd line two-way player who can bang out 20-20-40 seasons, I’ll be fine with that.
Stepan Richards Gaborik
Dubinsky Anisimov Callahan
Kreider Miller Thomas
Hagelin Boyle Prust
looks pretty good to me in 2-3 years :). And if the kids don’t pan out we could always bring in Fedotenko-like players that can hold the spots for them.
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You’d be good with the 15th overall pick being a 40 point third-liner? I’m not. I still believe you go for the best player available in the draft, especially at that pick. The Rangers did not do that. Based either on production or ceiling, Miller was not the best player available at the #15 spot, and that is disappointing.
No love for Zuccarello, Moshe?…. I think he ends up on the Richards-Gaborik line, with Stepan continuing to get easy starts and less responsibility as the third line pivot.
A 40 point guy is nothing to sneeze at.
There’s nothing that says Armia, McNeil, or any of the others that were available at the top of draft boards will be anything better than 40 point players themselves. So I would certainly sign now for a guy who will play 400+ games for the Rangers at 40 points a season, especially if he can play tough minutes defense in the process. For instance, if you’re telling me we got a Martin Hanzal prototype (a former #17 pick) with Miller, I’d be extremely pleased.
Will we feel like we missed out if Armia’s a 70 point guy? Of course we will, but outside of the first 7 picks, you’re a 7:3 underdog to get a guy that will even play 200 games at 41 points per 82.
In addition, as was discussed a bit on draft day, they did swing for the fences with St. Croix and McClogan, who both have high offensive ceilings, but have a lot of risk associated with them as well. So it’s not like they made no effort to get a high-skill player, they just didn’t risk their 1st rounder to do so.
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by George E. Ays on Aug 11, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought the St. Croix and McClogan picks were good, but I’d rather they’d swing for the fences with the first round pick.
And you’re right, a 40-point guy isn’t anything to sneeze at. But if I’m management want my first round forward projecting to be a first-line guy, and I want a player with as much pure skill as I can with that pick. RIght now, it seems like Miller’s ceiling, based on past production and reports, that he tops out as a third-liner.
I do not want my #15 pick to be a 40-point guy. And yes, I realize that there are tons of cases where the highly-skilled sexy pick doesn’t pan out (and that article clearly makes that case), but I’d rather start with a high ceiling guy than otherwise. It’s hard enough to project later-round picks.
I think with the way the Rangers have been developing their prospects of late, taking a guy who is highly skilled and getting them acclimated in the AHL to the idea that they have to put in work both in-game and in the off-season would be the best way to go. In that instance, I don’t think Armia would have been the best pick, but someone like McNeil with a higher ceiling and who’s shown the ability to be physical would have been a better pick (in my opinion, though I still wanted Namestnikov).
Who says the rangers front office doesn’t project him as a first line player? The player review wasn’t written by the NYR.
by GAThingy on Aug 11, 2011 8:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe they do. This is all conjecture on my and most other fans’ parts because all we have to go on are other people’s accounts, which are informed by their other people’s biases and based on other people’s observations.
If the Rangers see something else that most other scouts aren’t great. All I can go on is what the scouting reports say, and those consistently say that Miller does not have a very high ceiling.
Makes sense, Zucs could fit in on either wing for Kreider/Thomas or Stepan if they move him back to 3rd line center. I still think a Zucs-Richards-Gabs line would be way to soft.
I’m not saying I would be happy with him being a 20-20-40 guy, I would accept it however knowing the top 6 talent we have here.
"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
LET'S GO RANGERS!!!
Agree with that line being soft as shit, but I gotta put dude somewhere.
The top 6 talent the Rangers have is going to have to be replaced eventually though. Right now I don’t think the Rangers have enough top-6 talent in their prospective pool.
Well, you never know. When Dubi and Cally were drafted they weren’t supposed to be top 6 material, at least not immediately.
When Richards is the strongest/toughest/grinding player on a line its bad haha
"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
LET'S GO RANGERS!!!
When Richards is the strongest/toughest/grinding player on a line its bad haha
Ha. Word.
There are lots of guys who weren’t drafted in the first round, or at all, who end up being stars. I hope every player the Rangers draft maxes out their skill and effort. But I do believe in taking the “best player available” when it comes to hockey and football drafts, because the disparity in skill level can often be seen early on. Guys like Jerry Rice who bust their ass who become the greatest thing ever are rare. Then you have guys with immense skill (Moss, Kovalev) who underachieve but are still better and produce more than 90% of the guys out there with them. I’d rather try to identify the high-skill guys who have the drive to be better than they were the day before. I think Miller has the drive, but I’m not certain about the skill. I hope it reveals itself in the OHL this upcoming season.
by Hoggo on Aug 12, 2011 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like that
And it would let AA rather than Step be the 1st line LW, which makes a little more sense given that AA is a lefty (although it would require Step to improve big time on face offs).
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