Rangers Analysis: Season Scoring Chance Summaries

As a follow up to my post on Monday about individual scoring chances, this article covers the larger picture, totalling the number of chances that each player was on the ice for.  The last update for this came at the end of February, so this adds just the 18 final regular season games.  I did not include the playoff chances, those that feel the need to relive that can find that here.

As a refresher and for those who don't typically follow these stories, here's the definition again:

A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included, but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.

The project is made possible courtesy of Vic Ferrari, who gave us the script that keeps this project relatively simple.

All data after the jump.

As always, I start with the goaltenders. These are effectively the season totals, broken down by who was in net at the time.  The data does not include 5v3 or 3v5 play.

Name EVF EVA EVTOI EVF/60 EVA/60 SC%
LUNDQVIST 834 796 3260.73 15.346 14.647 51.17%
BIRON 223 174 750.95 17.817 13.902 56.17%
JOHNSON 2 4 15.85 7.571 15.142 33.33%
TOTAL 1059 974 4027.53 15.776 14.510 52.09%
Name PPF PPA PPTOI PPF/60 PPA/60 SHF SHA SHTOI SHF/60 SHA/60
LUNDQVIST 217 35 386.58 33.680 5.432 31 201 340.57 5.461 35.412
BIRON 39 7 93.55 25.013 4.490 4 40 80.18 2.993 29.931
JOHNSON 2 0 2.15 55.814 0.000 0 1 2.00 0.000 30.000
TOTAL 258 42 482.28 32.097 5.225 35 242 422.75 4.967 34.347

We see that for the season, just over 52% of the recorded chances at even strength were in the Rangers favor.  As was true for the most of the season, the team was better in front of Martin Biron, but as was pointed out in the past, quality of competition was likely the largest factor in that difference.  What will probably be most surprising to fans, the team spent 60 minutes more on the power play than shorthanded.  Not surprisingly however, the powerplay was less effective than their opponents.  To the forwards we go:

Name EVF EVA EVTOI EVF/15 EVA/15 SC% EV DIFF ZS DIFF ADJ SC
DUBINSKY 321 304 1156.45 4.164 3.943 51.36% 17 -20 25.50
STEPAN 321 240 1115.58 4.316 3.227 57.22% 81 141 21.08
ANISIMOV 306 252 1097.35 4.183 3.445 54.84% 54 2 53.15
BOYLE 268 267 1080.27 3.721 3.707 50.09% 1 -119 51.58
PRUST 250 247 969.43 3.868 3.822 50.30% 3 -80 37.00
GABORIK 254 210 909.77 4.188 3.462 54.74% 44 120 -7.00
FEDOTENKO 210 204 864.77 3.643 3.539 50.72% 6 -72 36.60
CALLAHAN 221 214 855.10 3.877 3.754 50.80% 7 -26 18.05
AVERY 214 214 826.32 3.885 3.885 50.00% 0 20 -8.50
CHRISTENSEN 156 167 668.93 3.498 3.745 48.30% -11 26 -22.05
FROLOV 161 130 520.77 4.637 3.744 55.33% 31 12 25.90
ZUCCARELLO 153 95 488.27 4.700 2.918 61.69% 58 81 23.58
WOLSKI 122 80 451.57 4.053 2.657 60.40% 42

PROSPAL 85 70 352.67 3.615 2.977 54.84% 15 66 -13.05
DRURY 66 68 233.25 4.244 4.373 49.25% -2 -56 21.80
WHITE 21 42 126.05 2.499 4.998 33.33% -21 -2 -20.15
BOOGAARD 20 27 100.62 2.982 4.025 42.55% -7 9 -10.83
NEWBURY 21 18 80.52 3.912 3.353 53.85% 3 2 2.15
WEISE 15 15 63.88 3.522 3.522 50.00% 0 7 -2.98
GRACHEV 12 13 60.75 2.963 3.210 48.00% -1 9 -4.83
KOLARIK 14 6 33.52 6.266 2.685 70.00% 8 6 5.45
DUPONT 0 0 5.57 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0! 0 1 -0.43
WILLIAMS 0 4 3.72 0.000 16.143 0.00% -4 0 -4.00
Name PPF PPA PPTOI PPF/15 PPA/15 SHF SHA SHTOI SHF/15 SHA/15
DUBINSKY 131 17 229.65 8.556 1.110 19 109 157.67 1.808 10.370
CALLAHAN 118 17 193.78 9.134 1.316 11 81 128.30 1.286 9.470
GABORIK 117 13 188.20 9.325 1.036 2 4 14.52 2.067 4.133
STEPAN 90 15 183.83 7.344 1.224 2 18 36.95 0.812 7.307
ANISIMOV 82 11 146.02 8.424 1.130 7 40 84.77 1.239 7.078
CHRISTENSEN 72 17 133.50 8.090 1.910 0 0 0.53 0.000 0.000
ZUCCARELLO 46 11 104.37 6.611 1.581 0 0 0.03 0.000 0.000
FROLOV 46 8 95.60 7.218 1.255 0 2 1.92 0.000 15.652
PROSPAL 54 7 86.40 9.375 1.215 0 0 0.08 0.000 0.000
WOLSKI 40 10 81.27 7.383 1.846 0 0 0.07 0.000 0.000
FEDOTENKO 30 4 51.63 8.715 1.162 2 41 72.87 0.412 8.440
BOYLE 29 4 49.22 8.838 1.219 11 80 158.62 1.040 7.565
AVERY 9 1 28.20 4.787 0.532 0 0 0.13 0.000 0.000
PRUST 11 0 24.18 6.823 0.000 18 76 139.17 1.940 8.192
DRURY 3 1 14.62 3.079 1.026 2 25 40.35 0.743 9.294
WHITE 2 0 7.92 3.789 0.000 2 3 4.25 7.059 10.588
KOLARIK 0 0 2.97 0.000 0.000 0 0 0.03 0.000 0.000
WEISE 1 0 1.17 12.857 0.000 0 0 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
GRACHEV 0 0 0.87 0.000 0.000 0 0 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
NEWBURY 0 0 0.67 0.000 0.000 0 1 2.78 0.000 5.389
BOOGAARD 0 0 0.33 0.000 0.000 0 0 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

These tables are sortable by clicking on the column headers.  Rates are based on 15 minutes of ice time.

A not-so-quick explanation of the last two columns in the even strength table.  ZSDiff is the different in offensive zone starts and defensive zone starts for the season.  For instance, Brandon Dubinsky started 20 more shifts in the defensive zone, while Derek Stepan started 141 more shifts in the offensive zone.  Obviously, this has an impact on a player's numbers, similar to how it affects a player's Corsi.  In an attempt to account for that, I used the model that JLikens used to adjust Corsi.  Based on the scoring chance data from the Rangers and the Washington Capitals (courtesy of Neil Greenberg), combined with Corsi data available from earlier in the season, I used the JLikens formula to estimate that an offensive zone start would be worth 0.425 scoring chances.

That creates the last column, which is the chance differential adjusted for the zone starts.  Using Stepan as the example again, his team leading +81 adjusts all the way down to a 9th best +21.08.  Still good, but shows how large the value of spending all your time in the offensive zone really can be.  To emphasize, the conversion factor of .425 is simply an estimate based on a small sample, so the actual number will vary, potentially to a large degree.  For our purposes however, it still works as a good barometer to show the effect..

Technical jargon out of the way, there are a few things to take out of this chart.  The outstanding work done by the Ruslan Fedotenko - Brian Boyle - Brandon Prust line tops the list.  Although they mostly broke even by the raw data, once adjusting for their team worst zone starts, they move right to the top of the list.  Against mostly second line caliber opponents, and with their outstanding work on the PK as well, those three were invaluable to the success of the Rangers last year.

On the downside, while Vinny Prospal and Marian Gaborik were obviously used in offensive situations, they found themselves giving back more than what they should have for the year.  At least they were the leading contributors for the power play, which is not what can be said for Erik Christensen.  He was one of the few regulars below 50% without adjustment, he was dead last after adjusting, and was also one of the worst regular contributors to the power play.  He even managed to lead the team in chances against on the power play.  While capable of wowing you with his skill, his play was overall very poor this year.   Next up, the defensive charts:

Name EVF EVA EVTOI EVF/20 EVA/20 SC% EV DIFF ZS DIFF ADJ SC
GIRARDI 397 437 1544.77 5.140 5.658 47.60% -40 -46 -20.45
STAAL 409 399 1535.00 5.329 5.199 50.62% 10 -32 23.60
SAUER 314 256 1209.97 5.190 4.232 55.09% 58 18 50.35
EMINGER 217 214 923.88 4.698 4.633 50.35% 3 17 -4.23
GILROY 198 157 730.83 5.418 4.296 55.77% 41 82 6.15
DEL ZOTTO 196 184 714.30 5.488 5.152 51.58% 12 18 4.35
MCDONAGH 192 156 684.45 5.610 4.558 55.17% 36 4 34.30
ROZSIVAL 188 129 555.65 6.767 4.643 59.31% 59

MCCABE 46 34 225.75 4.075 3.012 57.50% 12
Name PPF PPA PPTOI PPF/20 PPA/20 SHF SHA SHTOI SHF/20 SHA/20
STAAL 107 18 201.43 10.624 1.787 24 133 240.03 2.000 11.082
DEL ZOTTO 89 16 171.53 10.377 1.866 1 15 23.60 0.847 12.712
GIRARDI 97 16 162.23 11.958 1.972 22 153 251.93 1.746 12.146
ROZSIVAL 58 8 95.20 12.185 1.681 6 35 51.32 2.338 13.641
GILROY 33 5 72.02 9.165 1.389 1 9 19.40 1.031 9.278
MCCABE 38 6 70.53 10.775 1.701 0 1 2.63 0.000 7.595
EMINGER 7 3 19.50 7.179 3.077 4 56 86.80 0.922 12.903
SAUER 8 2 10.65 15.023 3.756 9 57 109.97 1.637 10.367
MCDONAGH 2 0 4.63 8.633 0.000 7 26 60.50 2.314 8.595

These tables are sortable by clicking on the column headers.  Rates are based on 20 minutes of ice time

To hopefully no one's surprise, Michael Sauer and Ryan McDonagh were just outstanding this season, especially for a couple of rookies.  They were given second pair defensive assignments for most of the season, and did everything just short of dominating.  There's not a lot of offense to their games yet, so they won't get a lot of publicity, but like the Boyle line above, having that kind of defensive effort helps a lot.  Honorable mention here goes to Michal Rozsival.  While no one was shedding a tear that he left, he was actually having a fairly strong season for us.  That play probably helped alot in increasing his value enough to get a young, highly skilled forward.

What will come as a large shock to just about everyone here is Dan Girardi.  He ends up the season well on the bottom at even strength, and only above Eminger among the top 5 in PK minutes.  He does lead the group by a good margin for the power play, and competition levels do take their toll, so it's not all bad..  For a guy considered to be a cornerstone of the defense, however, these are somewhat troubling results.  It looks that much worse when you split out his time with and without Marc Staal:

Chances For Chances Against Chance %
Staal & Girardi 279 287 49.29%
Staal w/o Girardi 130 112 53.72%
Girardi w/o Staal 118 150 44.03%

Together, they basically broke even with the hardest workload of any tandem in the league.  Taken apart however, Staal saw much better success, while Girardi seriously struggled.  Some of that comes from the teammates they played with, as Staal had Matt Gilroy and Bryan McCabe as his most frequent linemates (the top two by percentage), while Girardi got Michael Del Zotto and Steve Eminger as his most frequent (the bottom two by percentage).  Nonetheless, a guy with Girardi's reputation should be able to drive play better than that, regardless of his teammates.  He blocks an absolute ton of shots (even accounting for MSG scorer bias), and showed a lot of heart playing while getting the bejesus beat out of him in the playoffs, but any thoughts that he was our best defenseman this year seem to be based on his effort more than his production.

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