Rangers Analysis: Derek Stepan and the 'Sophomore Slump'

Unlike others in that group, in his 2nd year he’s going to see less ice time (due to Richards) and it will be more skewed towards favorable match ups (on a percentage basis). There were many situations last year when he was on the ice at important segments at the end of games to generate offense in tied or one goal games. That will be diminished this year with BR. I’ll gladly take a 15 goal 20-25 assist season. He can focus on face-offs and not feel pressured to produce. Not sure how he’ll get as many offensive starts with BR in the fold. I’m still expecting to see him paired with Boyle on the wing by end of camp.

My only concerns with Stepan are match-ups and face-offs. If Anisimov doesn’t lock down the #2 center position and Stepan is forced into (facing tougher matchups higher % of the time) the drop off could be more considerable. He’s not Patrick Kane, he’s more like Craig Janney and there’s nothing wrong with saying it.

I know some of you are going to start with the “move him to wing” comments. That shouldn’t be on the table at this point. Give him another year to improve in the circles. There is ample evidence that guys improve over time (not everyone is Cogliano). Plus, if you make him a top six wing your only adding to the match-up issue.

With that said, Stepan is a guy who raises his game in the biggest spots and has done it at every level. In my opinion he could just as easily put up 20 goals and 30 assists this year with less ice time.

Okay yeah i know we might not see him on the wing but personally i see Derek becoming a “Richards” type or player just a little more physicality in his play. Looking maybe 3 to 5 years down the road with help from the coaches and Richards himself, i can see Stepan taking the 1st line center role and being as good if not better than Richards. I can see Stepan doing better this in almost like Anisimov did this past year as well. But that’s just me.

If Torts uses him more often in important roles, I’d venture his points only drop slightly. The only stats that worry me are ones George covered above (playing competition and zone starts). On the plus side, he drove the play (Corsi Rel QoT) and had a flat PDO. If Stepan is used in the same role as last season (2nd line wing/3rd line center) I wouldn’t expect a slump in the end.

All things considered, Berglund had the worst second season out of everyone going down 21 points. The rest only dropped 4-7 points I think and Benn jumped up 15 pts. If that means Stepan who had 45 pts, goes down 7 pts to 38 pts with a few less goals and/or assists, than I’m fine with that. By no means is that a “sophmore slump” nor is that a bad season for a second year player. If he drops down to like 20 pts on the season, than it’s a slump. Interesting comparison George, like the use of the charts, but this is something really difficult to compare and contrast on. I guess it depends on the player and his determination.

Would his role this year be any different than it was last year?

Will be determined by finding him consistent line mates and a consistent role. Many of us (including myself) assume that Richards will be our top line center and Anisimov will be our second line center. Richards can play with forwards like Gaborik and (insert left winger, MZA, Wolski, Avery?) and Anisimov will presumably play with Dubinsky and Callahan.

Stepan’s role is interesting. Many have speculated his poor performance in the faceoff circle might eventually put him on the wing. If Stepan is the great player we are all expecting him to be, this move could help him find more ice time. Who knows, maybe Torts puts him on a line with Richards and Gaborik and Stepan instantly finds a role for years to come.

But if Stepan stays on the third line, things become much more interesting. Maybe Stepan’s future is sandwiched between Thomas and Kreider, MZA, or Haeglin. But if Stepan continues to center the third line, and continues to excel in that role, his job becomes invaluable. Stepan would instantly provide great depth at scoring, something any hockey fan would tell you is essential to the success of a team.

But I think Stepan will have an even better sophomore year. And the reason is simple: Brad Richards. Not only will Richards tutelage allow Stepan to grow on and off the ice, the attention Richards will draw from opposing teams, from the media, and from the fans will take all of that pressure off of Stepan. I think he is in a great situation to excel and put up big numbers. My only hope is that he finds a way to improve in the faceoff dock and stay a center. Because if there’s one thing I noticed about Stepan’s game last year, it was his ice vision.

BTW, 1994 game 7 is on right now .

I’m not giving up on Stepan in the faceoff circle. He knows that has to improve, and other players (Crosby) have entered the NHL with poor faceoff percentage and improved through hard work.

And regarding “heart,” something I notice even more about Step is his maturity – and his confidence. The only other young athlete in recent years I’ve seen that has those two qualities in such abundance is Jeter when he came up. It’s been noticeable from Day 1.

I’m glad I read this post, because it tempers expectations slightly for this season, but I’m not worried about Step, not at all.

Sharp signed 5 year extension with Chicago.

but not Stepan, IMO.

One, Step generated the majority of his points last season as a third liner. He was spotted with Dubinsky and Gaborik at times on the first line, but he was asked to be the setup man for Gaborik more often than not in those situations.
Two, he’s got a great shot, offensive awareness and good size. Going back to opening night in Buffalo, he outworked that D on the first goal, and was in great position for Avery’s passes to put the final two home. In a game against the Devils, off a face-off won by Drury, just moving a small stride forward lead to a goal. Step is instinctive; and along with speed, you don’t teach that. You harness it. And Torts didn’t overuse him or lessen his playing value. He will be a great scorer in this league; and that’s another reason I think he should be with Gabby and Richards on their left wing. Step can learn face-offs; but with his playing ability and instincts, he’s exactly what would manufacture points and make defenses go nuts.