I love advanced stats, too bad I don't understand them that well. Kinda like hot chicks. But I keep trying (and keep buying them drinks)
Came across this discussion over at Pension Plan Puppets. Actually I have a lot of respect for most of the posters over there. They really have intelligent, educated discussions. So I hope they don't feel I am stealing this from them, I just want to put it into a NYR perspective but lack the intelligence to do it all on my own.
Now is the time where all the season previews and predictions come out. Even Vegas gets in on it with their odds. But can we use other means to predict how the Rangers will do?
Pythagorean regression of GF vs GA - I remember the name from high school. Guess he did some more work after the theorem .
Now we need to predict GF and GA to see where we will fall in this chart.
Let us start with GF because it's more fun. Obviously these are objective but I will try to be conservative and back up my reasoning as best as I can.
Wolinski = Tough one the start with. He had pretty bad SH% at 8.43% (7.7% with us) last year so you would expect it to climb back up to his Avg of 11%. If he does get some time with BR gotta assume he gets better looks. Though realistically, nobody know where he will wind up. Myself, I would not be shocked if he hit 30g. On the other had I would not be shocked if it was only 15, disappointed yes, shocked no. My guts says somewhere between 15-25g. Take the middle, 20g, deduct 2g (10%) for bad luck and few disappearing acts. Predicition: 18g
Richards = Only twice has he scored less that 20g. 17g in 02-03 and 16g in 56games during 08-09. Predition = 20g
Gaborik = Boy this could be a whole post. Is 50g really out of reach for this sniper playing for the first time with a real elite setup man? Would love to see it. Even one of his worst season netted him 22g. Prediction = 35g
Dubinsky = I think he will improve but I also think his def assignments will be tougher. This is the low side since if he does see any time next to BR it could be higher. Prediction: 25g
Anisimov = similar to Dubi. His sh% has been pretty consistent (9.7%, 9.5%) so he will need to take more shots to see a significant increase in goals (or get very lucky). If he continues to center BD and RC, I don't see that happening as they are shooters themselves. Prediction = 22g
Callahan= Last year he saw a pretty big increase in sh% over the past 2 years (12.8% v. 9.3%). I think he regresses back to the mean and am concerned that he can play the whole season. Prediction = 23g
Rupp = Playing next to DS can only help . Prediticion = 10g
Stepan = Lack of dynamic LW, don't think he can match the 12.7sh% of last year. BR taking up some of his offensive starts. Prediction = 17g
MZA = Tough one. I think he is better than his 8sh% last year (12.2% in AHL, 12.9 ('09) 13.3% ('08) in the SEL). Was on pace for 12g last year. Better skating, more comfortable playing on smaller rink. I will be a bit bullish on him. Prediction = 18g
Feds = Love th effort but cant see more than... Prediction = 10g
Boyle = I don't think last year was a fluke. A 9.6sh% is nothing outrageous. It seems he finally has figured out how to use his size tho his advantage. Better speed, good hands and a huge frame is a deadly combination. Would love to see him get some time as a wing next to BR but will settle having him park in front of the net on the PP and cleaning up. Prediction = 25g
Prust = Man, would love to see him net 20g. I think he has it in him even though his sh% is a bit off the charts. He does make the most out of opportunities. But to be honest I dont think he see enough TOI to get that amount. Prediction = 15g
Avery = I think he stays with the team as a spare. Can he really shoot 2.2% again? You almost have to be trying to miss to shoot like that. Im gonna get grilled on this either way but reality is it wont make that much of difference. Prediction 5g
Other spare forward(s) 5g
Staal = 6g
Girardi = 6g
McD = 4g
Sauer = 3g
Eminger = 2g
Erixon = 2g
MDZ = 2g
Other Spare defensmen 2g
Total 265GF. Obviously that is a bit on the high side even though I tried to be conservative. So let us readjust by 5% and another 5% for bad luck. Adjusted total 239GF (up from 224gf in 10-11)
Now for GA
Admittedly I am taking a less complicated approach. Over the past two seasons we have given up on average 30 shots per game (29.4 in 10-11 and 29.9 in 09-10) so I am going to say that should stay the same. So that would be 2460 shots against for the season.
65 games or 1950 shots for Henrik at a sv% of .920 is 156 goals
17 games or 510 shots for Biron at a sv% of .910 is 46 goals
Total GA is 202 (up from 195ga in 10-11)
So if we look at the chart above this differential *should* put us safely in the playoffs. A couple of break out years from some players could really put us over the edge. On the flip side 1 or 2 disappointing performances (not including Henrik, Richards and Gabby) should not effect us too much as even if you decrease GF and increase GF a bit we should still be safe.
Comments, complaints, criticisms?