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2011-2012 Regular Season Eastern Conference Standings Prediction using Statistics

2011-2012 Regular Season Eastern Conference Standings Prediction

Hi Guys, I was a little bored this sunday evening so I thought I would take some time to predict the end of the year standings and our position in the East. Everybody has been worried about Pittsburgh but hopefully these tables will put your minds at ease.

Summary: I looked at the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (up to the current date) Regular Season match ups vs the teams we have left. I looked at the match ups Pittsburgh and Philadelphia also have left. Then I calculated winning percentages based on historical regular season match up results. For example during the last two regular seasons we have beat buffalo 2 out of 4 games during regulation and 3 out of 3 games in overtime. Thus we have a 50% winning percentage in regulation and a 100% winning percentage in overtime and a 3/7 or 43% chance of going into overtime with the Sabres. I then used these percentages and ran 1000 iterations of the games we have left to determine our final amount of points. I did this for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia as well. The following Tables show my results.

Total Points shown below will happen @ the Percent Chance shown below, frequency is just a measure of how many times in the 1000 iterations this point total was seen. Add Pts. Est. is how many additional points we will get at the percent chance shown for our final remaining games.

Rangers Table

Rangers_medium

Total Points

Add. Pts. Est.

Frequency

Percent Chance

97

2

1

0.1

98

3

0

0

99

4

0

0

100

5

3

0.3

101

6

5

0.5

102

7

13

1.3

103

8

18

1.8

104

9

41

4.1

105

10

78

7.8

106

11

80

8

107

12

101

10.1

108

13

110

11

109

14

146

14.6

110

15

106

10.6

111

16

122

12.2

112

17

66

6.6

113

18

62

6.2

114

19

27

2.7

115

20

17

1.7

116

21

3

0.3

117

22

2

0.2





Pittsburgh's Table

Penguins_medium

Total Points

Add. Pts. Es.

Frequency

Percent Chance

99

5

2

0.2

100

6

5

0.5

101

7

5

0.5

102

8

24

2.4

103

9

27

2.7

104

10

87

8.7

105

11

75

7.5

106

12

138

13.8

107

13

113

11.3

108

14

143

14.3

109

15

106

10.6

110

16

132

13.2

111

17

61

6.1

112

18

51

5.1

113

19

18

1.8

114

20

12

1.2

115

21

1

0.1

116

22

1

0.1





Philadelphia's Table

Flyers_medium

Total Points

Add. Pts. Es.

Frequency

Percent Chance

97

5

2

0.2

98

6

10

1

99

7

3

0.3

100

8

17

1.7

101

9

36

3.6

102

10

61

6.1

103

11

97

9.7

104

12

121

12.1

105

13

122

12.2

106

14

180

18

107

15

118

11.8

108

16

119

11.9

109

17

67

6.7

110

18

35

3.5

111

19

7

0.7

112

20

6

0.6

113

21

0

0

114

22

0

0

So according to the percentages no matter how many times I do the iterations the peak of the bel curve, in other words the point amount with the highest percentage of happening doesn't change. Thus we can educationally estimate the final season standings in the eastern conference for our division as follows:

Atlantic Division

  1. New York Rangers 109 Points
  2. Pittsburgh Penguins 108 Points
  3. Philadelphia Flyers 106 Points
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