2011-2012 Regular Season Eastern Conference Standings Prediction using Statistics

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2011-2012 Regular Season Eastern Conference Standings Prediction using Statistics

By rain-g-errs on Mar 18 2012, 11:08p 20

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2011-2012 Regular Season Eastern Conference Standings Prediction

Hi Guys, I was a little bored this sunday evening so I thought I would take some time to predict the end of the year standings and our position in the East. Everybody has been worried about Pittsburgh but hopefully these tables will put your minds at ease.

Summary: I looked at the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (up to the current date) Regular Season match ups vs the teams we have left. I looked at the match ups Pittsburgh and Philadelphia also have left. Then I calculated winning percentages based on historical regular season match up results. For example during the last two regular seasons we have beat buffalo 2 out of 4 games during regulation and 3 out of 3 games in overtime. Thus we have a 50% winning percentage in regulation and a 100% winning percentage in overtime and a 3/7 or 43% chance of going into overtime with the Sabres. I then used these percentages and ran 1000 iterations of the games we have left to determine our final amount of points. I did this for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia as well. The following Tables show my results.

Total Points shown below will happen @ the Percent Chance shown below, frequency is just a measure of how many times in the 1000 iterations this point total was seen. Add Pts. Est. is how many additional points we will get at the percent chance shown for our final remaining games.

Rangers Table

Total Points	Add. Pts. Est.	Frequency	Percent Chance
97	2	1	0.1
98	3	0	0
99	4	0	0
100	5	3	0.3
101	6	5	0.5
102	7	13	1.3
103	8	18	1.8
104	9	41	4.1
105	10	78	7.8
106	11	80	8
107	12	101	10.1
108	13	110	11
109	14	146	14.6
110	15	106	10.6
111	16	122	12.2
112	17	66	6.6
113	18	62	6.2
114	19	27	2.7
115	20	17	1.7
116	21	3	0.3
117	22	2	0.2

Pittsburgh's Table

Total Points	Add. Pts. Es.	Frequency	Percent Chance
99	5	2	0.2
100	6	5	0.5
101	7	5	0.5
102	8	24	2.4
103	9	27	2.7
104	10	87	8.7
105	11	75	7.5
106	12	138	13.8
107	13	113	11.3
108	14	143	14.3
109	15	106	10.6
110	16	132	13.2
111	17	61	6.1
112	18	51	5.1
113	19	18	1.8
114	20	12	1.2
115	21	1	0.1
116	22	1	0.1

Philadelphia's Table

Total Points	Add. Pts. Es.	Frequency	Percent Chance
97	5	2	0.2
98	6	10	1
99	7	3	0.3
100	8	17	1.7
101	9	36	3.6
102	10	61	6.1
103	11	97	9.7
104	12	121	12.1
105	13	122	12.2
106	14	180	18
107	15	118	11.8
108	16	119	11.9
109	17	67	6.7
110	18	35	3.5
111	19	7	0.7
112	20	6	0.6
113	21	0	0
114	22	0	0

So according to the percentages no matter how many times I do the iterations the peak of the bel curve, in other words the point amount with the highest percentage of happening doesn't change. Thus we can educationally estimate the final season standings in the eastern conference for our division as follows:

Atlantic Division