The season finale ended with the Washington Capitals stifling the New York Rangers offense once again.  The Rangers had a 31:32 stretch in the game without a scoring chance at even strength, and for the 7th and 8th times in the series, they were held to 2 or fewer chances in a period.  For comparison, that happened only 33/240 tracked periods during the regular season.  Credit the Capitals' defense, blame the Rangers' offense.  Either way, the series ended in part because of those numbers.

Here's the head to head for Game 5:

Score effects come strongly into play here, as the Rangers only had chances by Brian Boyle and Wojtek Wolski in the first two periods. Otherwise, the game turned out fairly even, with only the Cap's third defensive pair really having a consistent edge across the matchups.  As normal, the rest of the data is after the jump.

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So, as we prepare for what will hopefully be the first of three "win or go home" games for the Rangers, Andrew Gross at Ranger Rants has the possibilities:

Per research presented on NHL.com, in NHL playoff history, teams have trailed a best-of-seven series by 3-1 229 times. Twenty times, that team has come back to win the series, or 8.7 percent of the time.

But it has been done with more frequency lately. In fact, it happened twice last season, as the Capitals blew their first-round series to the Canadiens and the Flyers, en route to the Stanley Cup final, actually erased a 3-0 series deficit to the Bruins. And, of course, in 2009, the Capitals rallied from a 3-1 deficit against the Rangers in the first round. The Wild, with Marian Gaborik, did it twice in 2003.

Rangers are just 1 for 14 on the power play in this series, a pitiful 7.1%. Ultimately, this is going to be the Rangers downfall in this series if they don't pull of the miracle. Just think of how much different this series could look if they were 3 or 4 of 14.

Oddly enough, there has yet to be a first period goal in this series.

Great quote from Tortorella yesterday:

"I’m looking at our next game and my gut tells me we’ll be ready to play, I just have a really good feeling," Tortorella added. "It took me until yesterday afternoon to swallow the loss because that was a tough one. It was one of the tougher ones I’ve lived through. But once you swallow it and you puke it out, I just have such a good feeling. I just feel good about our club."

"Puke it out".....probably good advice for all of us.

No lineup changes expected today.

You guys know I am always the eternal optimist when it comes to this team. History tells me one of two things will happen today:

1. The Rangers will find a way to win, and take it home for Game 6.

2. The Rangers get blown out of the building.

That's just the way it usually goes in sports. I'd like to think they are strong enough to accomplish number one, but I do fear them number two-ing all over us.

I probably won't be in the game thread today, my son is here with me today. We will have Blueshirt Banter Radio at 7 PM EST. See you guys then.

I'm going to switch things up this time, and lead with the individual chances rather than the head to head.   Some reminders for the chart below.  First, the definition of the scoring chance again:

A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area – loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included, but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.

Secondly, an 'assist' in this context is defined as any pass that leads directly to a scoring chance. This would include shots that are deflected and/or redirected on goal, but does not include shots that lead to a rebound opportunity.  Finally, 'COG' indicates those scoring chances that result in a shot on goal.

The name that instantly stands out on the list is Marian Gaborik. He had seven scoring chances in the game, easily the most of either team and the highest output of the season for him. (his previous high was 6, registered twice). He has [deservedly] taken a lot of heat for the gaffe at the end, but he was the only person to muster a quality shot in the OT periods.  Combined with his linemates, Brandon Dubinsky and Ruslan Fedotenko, they produced 65% of the chances for the New York Rangers.  

Overall, as has been the custom in this series, the Washington Capitals had more chances in the game. This time, however, it was the result of the 3rd period, and especially the OTs. More on that after the jump.

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Just as the Game 2 loss had quite a few positives in the underlying numbers, this Game 3 win by the New York Rangers has a lot of negatives.  We start once again with the head to head table:

This chart contains many more similarties to Game 1 than Game 2, where the Rangers struggled to find many/any favorable matchups.  Like Brandon Dubinsky last time, this time Artem Anisimov was steam rolled, especially by Alexander Semin who was +7 against Anisimov when the Caps were only +8 at ES all together (12-4 for the game). It should be reminded here that this only accounts for 5v5 play, and that neither Christensen's goal (5v4) or Dubinsky's (4v4) were credited chances anyway.  The goal going into Game 4 continues to be finding more scoring chances at even strength to test Michael Neuvirth.

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Tonight on Blueshirt Banter Radio, one of our regular listeners and a long time season ticket holder called in to tell us about how the word is that many Rangers fans holding tickets for tomorrow's game have given up, and sold their tickets for Game 3, which leads to the possibility of many Capitals fans being in the Garden for tomorrow's game.

I am hoping that this isn't true. If it is, I've got a message for those of you that have given up, and sold your tickets:

Don't come back. Ever.

Don't come back and tell people what a big fan you are if the Rangers somehow pull this out. Don't come back in October and tell people what a big Rangers fan you are, and how much money you spend on season tickets, and how excited you are for the new season. Just don't come back. If you've given up on this team after two games, after the way they played their guts out for a majority of this season, and gave you more excitement than you could have possibly expected heading into this year, don't come back. Tomorrow they need you more than ever, and if you can't be bothered to be there for them, don't come back. They don't need you, and neither do the real fans of this team.

Now if you have a funeral, or possibly major surgery, then I can understand you having to sell your tickets. But if you just sold your tickets because you just think its over and don't want to be there to support them, don't let the doors of the Garden hit you on the tuchus on the way out.

If you gave up, shame on you. Don't come back.

Once again, we'll just jump right in to the data.  For those who missed it, the info from Game 1 can be found here.

The team gave a much better defensive effort this time around, and it shows up here.  In game 1 showed a lot of matchups where the New York Rangers took the short end of the stick.  This time around, the chances were mostly favorable, with only the 3rd line of Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson, and Jason Chimera for the Washington Capitals really getting the better of play.  There was some score effects going on with the Caps content to hang on to a 2-0 lead in the 3rd period, but after losing 14-8 with the score tied on Wednesday, the Rangers 5-2 advantage this time when tied is still an improvement.

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It should come as a surprise to no one that Sean Avery will return to the lineup tonight for Game Two. We've seen both the good and bad of what Avery is capable of in the playoffs, so keep the rabbit's foot handy.

Matt Gilroy remains in the lineup, Steve Eminger scratched.

As far as Matt Zuccarello goes, here is what John Tortorella had to say (courtesy of Ranger Rants)

In discussing his lineup choice, coach John Tortorella expressed some reservations about the 5-foot-7 Zuccarello and "whether he can handle the size and the overall consistency of playoff hockey, I’m not sure." Tortorella said he still wasn’t sure where Zuccarello’s NHL career would play out but that he certainly had a chance to adapt

"It’s been a long year for him as far as up and down and learning the new game in North American, playing in the minors with everybody chasing you around," Tortorella said. "It’s still an open book for him as to where he sits as a National Hockey Leaguer. He sees the ice. He makes some plays that some players don’t see."

No word yet on the lines for tonight, although it sounds like Avery will skate on the fourth line with Artem Anisimov and Chris Drury. Expect Erik Christensen on the first line with Marian Gaborik and Vinny Prospal. 

Also no word on who starts in goal tonight for the Rangers, going to keep that a secret, keep the Caps guessing.

For the newly initiated, here's the definition of a scoring chance:

A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area – loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included, but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a “chance for” if someone on his team has a chance to score and a “chance against” if the opposing team has a chance to score.

We'll just jump headfirst into this, starting with the head to head table (click to enlarge):

Quick explanation, the numbers in each box is the scoring chance differential for each player versus each opponent. Boxes with no number indicate there were no recorded chances with those players on the ice.  Based on the sea of red in most of the boxes, you can tell there was not a lot of favorable outcomes in this game.  The one matchup that seemed to work was the Vinny Prospal - Artem Anisimov - Marian Gaborik line against the Caps 2nd line of Marco Sturm - Jason Arnott - Alexander Semin.  Naturally, that's the line that was broken up in practice this morning.  The other noticeable result here is that of Brandon Dubinsky, who has no black to be found, and was a whopping -8 against Mike Green.

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