2019-2020 New York Rangers Season Preview: Forwards
As we approach training camp, I am going to take a look at a few different season preview items for the New York Rangers. We’ll break it out by category, and today we’re going to start with the forwards.
Shouldn’t Be Any Questions
Mika Zibanejad — With the way the organization’s social media team is going about things, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Zibanejad with the “C” this year. The main question around him is whether or not Artemi Panarin will be on his wing (I would expect him to be) and if Kaapo Kakko is there too.
Artemi Panarin — Panarin has become something of a social media master, posting hype videos of himself and various photos in a “New York or Nothing” sweater. I am in love with this man, and the Rangers have him for the next seven years.
Pavel Buchnevich — As staunch of a Buchnevich supporter as I am, we are reaching a critical point in his development from an offensive standpoint. Buchnevich has always had solid underlying numbers, and his P/60 metrics are often in the top tier of the team. Even as a 45-point player, Buchnevich has value, but the 60-plus player we expected has to come out sooner rather than later. That player really has to come out this year, otherwise it’s safe to assume he might not have that level of offense in him at all. That said, I would be very surprised if Buchnevich didn’t get a jolt because of Panarin’s inclusion, as well as having some younger Russians in the group he can mentor and bond with. He should get more of a leash now that him and David Quinn are on the same page.
Jesper Fast — Fast is in the final year of a three-year contract that will see him hit the cap for just $1.85-million. One of the better defensive players around, Fast has been a workman for this group for years, and should be factored as a “safety net” for the younger guys who find their way to the bottom six.
Brendan Lemieux — Lemieux finally agreed to terms with the Rangers on a one-year, $925K deal on the eve of training camp. Lemieux had little to no leverage during his “holdout” so I am surprised it took that long. Mike and I talked about his thinking on the podcast. That being said, it’s good to have Lemieux back in the fold. As I said on the airwaves, Lemieux isn’t someone critical for the hockey team, but having a pest who can actually play hockey will keep the bad enforcers out of the lineup. Lemieux has no issues crashing the net, is probably good for 10-15 goals a year, and if he keeps drawing twice as many penalties as he takes he’ll add value to this team. The problem with Lemieux is his talents aren’t expensive ones, and when the two try to lock down a longer term deal that may become a factor.
To Extend Or Not To Extend
Chris Kreider — The only questions surrounding Kreider are about his long-term future. I will admit I’m shocked Jeff Gorton is willing to allow Kreider to walk into a Mats Zuccarello-like situation where Kreider is unsure of his future but is expected to be a mentor to the kids. We’ll have more on that as we go, but there’s not a single logical reason to assume Kreider isn’t in the opening night lineup aside from a surprise trade.
How long will he be around? That remains to be seen. Gorton allowed Zuccarello to drag to the deadline and it cost him. The same thing happened with Kevin Hayes, but Gorton managed to parlay his demand into one of the better returns of the deadline. Kreider is in a different tier of player, though, and having an important veteran sulking because of his own situation for a second consecutive season isn’t the best situation for the team. Especially this team.
A Deadline Day Trade Asset
Vlad Namestnikov — Namestnikov is a Swiss Army Knife of a player, someone capable of suiting up in the top-six when needed, and a fantastic bottom-six player otherwise. He’s a player Quinn should feel comfortable putting with the rookies who might need someone to help mitigate the damage from their mistakes while not taking away from their offensive instincts.
The thing about Namestnikov is he isn’t a long term player for this team and everyone knows it. There’s no way Namestnikov is re-signed next summer, which means he’s an in-season trade target or more likely a deadline acquisition for a contender. That’s fine, since everyone should be on the same page, but I am surprised to see Namestnikov suiting up opening night. I didn’t think he’d still be around at this point.
Hopefully A Deadline Day Trade Asset
Ryan Strome — I’ve started my fair share of Twitter wars over Strome since he was acquired from Edmonton last season. To be honest, I’m surprised so many people seem to think he’s more than he is. Generally, 25-year-old players are what they are in their developmental arc. There are exceptions to this rule, of course, but those exceptions are generally tied to players who have tremendous underlying numbers and either haven’t been given legit role or ice time yet, or are being dragged down by a constant anchor of a linemate. For Strome, neither of those things are true — if anything he’s the anchor. Hell, I’m already talking about this being a make or break year offensivley for Buchnevich and he has the good underlying numbers!
Until the Rangers prove to me otherwise, I will still worry about the galaxy brain moment where the team decides his goal scoring is worth the extension.
Look, Strome was an upgrade over Ryan Spooner for sure. But Strome isn’t going to shoot 24 percent again, and his offense is going to dry up. It’s a good thing he wasn’t a free agent this year, but it’s important to be realistic about what guys can provide in their contract years. I’m not sure how much Strome was dangled this summer — my gut tells me not at all — and the Rangers had a chance to buy him out for a pennies on the dollar cap penalty and chose not to. This is something to watch moving forward, but he’ll be on the opening night roster regardless.
Kids Who Have A Year Under Their Belt
Filip Chytil — Chytil had a perfectly acceptable freshman year in the NHL. The offense wasn’t what you wanted, and he struggled in gaps making an impact at the NHL level, but it’s easy to forget he played an entire NHL season as a 19-year-old. Chytil should have a chance to get top-six minutes this year, and I’d like to see him get a bigger look with the man advantage, too. With another year of his frame filling out and more of an understanding of what to expect for an NHL workload, Chytil should take a reasonable jump this year.
Brett Howden — Howden had a wondercamp 12 months ago, parlayed that into a fantastic first couple of months in the NHL, fell off the face of the earth, got hurt, came back, and continued to nosedive. Howden’s metrics were pretty terrible across the board, and one of the bigger black stains on Quinn’s season last year was his refusal to give Howden time in the press box to re-set — even after the injury.
Despite his struggles, there is reason to believe Howden can be a high-end third line center, or even an average second line center in the NHL. The Rangers didn’t exactly have the best support group last year, and that’s a hard place to develop. With more talent in the lineup, Quinn should be able to shelter him a little and help him transition to expectations.
Kaapo Kakko
Kapo Kakko — I’m just going to leave this here and not say anything else:
Kaapo Kakko wins it in OT by himself. pic.twitter.com/1tej5nuenL
— Adam Herman (@AdamZHerman) September 9, 2019
Kids Who Should Make It
Vitali Kravtsov — There’s little reason to assume Kravtsov won’t make the team out of camp, especially after his fantastic Traverse City. And while you should expect some lumps at the NHL level, he has KHL experience. You should be excited about him.
Maybe?
Lias Andersson — I don’t know. That’s it. That’s the take. I would expect Andersson to make the team because the group’s center depth is weak and the organization wants to know what they have in their former 7th overall pick. In spots, Andersson looked like a guy who can carve out a long NHL career last year; at other times he looked like an AHL forward. Unlike Chytil, Andersson doesn’t have the raw offensive instincts to make up for issues on other ends of the ice, and intangibles generally don’t have value until you’re a seasoned veteran. Do the Rangers want Andersson in the NHL this year? Yes. Do they want him on the fourth line? Probably not. Will they have a choice? Again, probably not.
Andersson is already in a tough spot because of things out of his control — mainly where he was taken in the draft, who he was selected over, and the large portion of this fanbase that refuses to allow typical expectations to be heaped onto a player. Andersson had all that turn him into being a “bust” before his 21st birthday. I don’t think that’s fair, but I do think it’s fair to say the organization expected him to be further along in his development by now — remember, he was mainly drafted so high because of his polish and NHL readiness — and this is a critical year for him.
Christoval Nieves — Honestly, Nieves should start the year as the team’s fourth line center. He’s earned the role, and his game is built for that type of play. I just don’t know if the Andersson situation trumps Nieves and his development. This one we’ll have to wait and see.
Maybe A Callup?
Vinni Lettieri — Lettieri feels like a AAAA player. Too good for the AHL, not good enough for the NHL. He’s received his chances two years in a row with the big club and didn’t make an impact. Fair to say an injury might give him a third shot, but I wouldn’t bank on it.
Nope
Greg McKegg — Signed to a one-way deal, many speculated McKegg might be suiting up for the Rangers in their bottom-six. He played 41 games for Carolina last year, and then 14 playoff games. The thing about McKegg is ... he’s not good. James Dolan has money to spend, and giving guys a one-way deal knowing they’ll be in the AHL all season is a fantastic use of that surplus of money. There should be some concerns McKegg gets legit time with the Rangers in the event of an injury, but at this stage — with the team financially incapable of taking care of two important players — I’m not overly concerned.
Matt Beleskey — The Rangers already informed Belekey he won’t be joining the group for training camp. This isn’t an insulting move to him as much as a financial one, but still, don’t expect him around at all.
