2026 Elimination Eval: Boston Bruins

Practically every year since the Boston Bruins lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the St. Louis Blues in 2019, it felt like it was finally going to be the year they took a massive step back. While you could certainly argue that finally arrived last season in the form of missing the playoffs, that they were able to bounce right back and finish in a wild card position this year is a testament to the viability of a retool approach as opposed to a full-blown rebuild. While several decisions made in the last year and a half regarding asset management and roster construction have been viewed a bit unfavorably by their fans, those very decisions could be what give the Bruins a fighting chance in the longer term at becoming the team like they once were.

Expectations

When we did our standings season preview at the beginning of the season, not a single one of us penciled the Bruins in as a playoff team. They were coming off a season in which they not only missed the playoffs, but finished tied in points with the Philadelphia Flyers for last in the Eastern Conference. This was a team that was certainly in transition as they fired Jim Montgomery as their head coach, gave Joe Sacco the interim title, and made some franchise-altering decisions at the trade deadline, selling off long term pieces in Brandon Carlo and Brad Marchand. 

Credit where it’s due: I was a huge fan of the decision to hire Marco Sturm as their next head coach. They didn’t play it safe and go with another retread coaching hire, nor did they try to reinvent the wheel by thinking too far outside the box. Instead, they went with a guy who knows as well as anybody what it takes to be a Boston Bruin. While Sturm had success coaching Germany’s national team, he had spent the last six years with the Los Angeles Kings organization, primarily as the head coach of their minor league affiliate, the Ontario Reign. Taking the next step in his coaching career with the team he spent five prime seasons of his career playing for made sense.

As far as off-season and trade deadline preparations, the Bruins handled both a bit conservatively. While they did give a pair of free agents questionable amounts of money on multi-year contracts, they mainly made lower risk decisions on depth players like Jordan Harris and Jonathan Aspirot. Those paid dividends for them as those players took on elevated roles throughout the season, namely Aspirot who spent the majority of the year on the top pair with Charlie McAvoy. While Michael Eyssimont and Tanner Jeannot were a bit costly, they were two role players who, by unofficial definition, were Bruins players simply from their play style alone. 

On the trade front, the Bruins really only took advantage of opportunistic trade scenarios. They bought low on Viktor Arvidsson, a veteran whose relatively-modest contract the Edmonton Oilers needed to be shed for cap compliance. Lukas Reichel was a younger player with upside that struggled to find a home this season, only costing the Bruins a sixth round pick. They made necessary decisions to try and improve their roster, without giving up much of anything in the form of picks or prospects.  

Series Recap

Game 1 of this series was one of the more exciting games of the entire first round of the playoffs, especially for Buffalo Sabres fans. It was their first playoff game in 15 years, and the fans were ready for it—and at the expense of the Bruins, so were the Sabres. It was a fascinating game in the sense that the Bruins actually opened the scoring midway through the first period and extended their lead to 2-0 early in the third. Despite the Bruins leading for over 50 minutes of game play, it never once felt as if the Sabres were going to lose this game. In a span of four and a half minutes, Tage Thompson scored twice to tie it up before Mattias Samuelsson gave them the lead. The Bruins pulled Jeremy Swayman in the final two minutes of play which allowed for Alex Tuch to make it 4-2. David Pastrnak scored on a power play to bring them back within one, but it wouldn’t be enough to pull off the full comeback. 

The Bruins were able to bounce back in Game 2 as Viktor Arvidsson got them on the board early in the second. A pair of goals from Morgan Geekie and Pavel Zacha helped put things out of reach, but as proven in Game 1, it’s never over until it’s over. Another goal from Arvidsson gave them a 4-0 lead and despite two Sabres goals later in the period, the Bruins held on to tie the series up at one apiece.

Game 3 would become the game-changing moment of the series and a big part of that had to do with the Sabres’ decision to pull their starting goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and replace him with a goalie the Bruins know all too well in Alex Lyon. 

With the series tied and the first game of it on home ice, the Bruins had a chance to turn things around. Once again, they opened the scoring as Tanner Jeannot put them on the board early in the second. Yet midway through the second stanza, Bowen Byram tied the game at one, and a pair of goals in the third put things out of reach for Boston. The difference-maker was Alex Lyon, who stopped 24 of 25 total shots on goal. 

Lyon may not be the greatest goaltender in the NHL, but when it comes to facing the Bruins in the postseason, he certainly likes to play as if he is. While Lyon never won a Stanley Cup in Florida, he was a big part of the Panthers magical run to their first Cup Final when they lost to the Vegas Golden Knights in 2023.

Game 4 would be the low point in the series for the Bruins. Down two games to one, a win could have significantly altered the outcome of the series, but instead the Bruins lost 6-1 on home ice. It was an abysmal first period as Peyton Krebs opened the scoring four minutes in and three unanswered in a span of seven minutes left Boston behind 4-0. The Bruins got it together enough in the second to keep the Sabres from adding to their lead, but a pair of third period goals made it a 6-0 game. Lyon was 40 seconds away from the shutout, but a shorthanded goal from Sean Kuraly kept the Bruins from being fully embarrassed. 

The high moment of the series came in Game 5 as the Bruins were able to force the series back to Boston. After Rasmus Dahlin gave the Sabres a lead three and a half minutes in, Elias Lindholm tied the score midway through the second. Lyon was shutting the door once again, which helped provied this series its first overtime outing. David Pastrnak would be the hero in this one as he converted on a breakaway to keep the series alive. 

The Bruins needed to build off that momentum heading into Game 6, but instead they gave up another early goal. It was Alex Tuch who put Buffalo on the board and Samuelsson who extended the lead to 2-0 later in the opening period. Pastrnak found his third of the series to bring the Bruins within one in the third, but a timely goal from Zach Benson secured the Sabres win. Things got a bit ugly late in the game as Benson got tangled up with Charlie McAvoy, whose frustrations were expressed in the form of a two hand slash that will likely result in a suspension to start next season. Both sides battled in a hard-fought, fast-paced, and physical series, but the Bruins just couldn't get it done.

Prediction

As a whole, we were pretty split on this series, but Eric and I were right on the money taking the Sabres in six. This was another example of a team with experience that’s been here before against a younger group on the rise playing with house money. As is becoming the theme in these playoffs, it was the less experienced team that prevailed. Regardless of who the Bruins matched up against in the first round of these playoffs, they were far from being considered the favorites in the East. While losing in the playoffs is never fun, a first round exit their first year back in the postseason can be considered a slight over achievement, all things considered.

Was the Season a Success?

Again, given that the Bruins missed the playoffs altogether last season and nearly finished in last place, this year was definitely a step in the right direction. You really never want to aim to be a middle-of-the-pack team on the fringes of playoff contention like the Bruins were this season, but looking at it from a bigger picture perspective, they should be perfectly fine with this outcome. The Brandon Carlo trade last season could very well become the saving grace that allows them to effectively retool instead of rebuild considering the disaster of a season the Toronto Maple Leafs just had.

The Leafs pick is top-five protected and Toronto is currently projected to pick fifth overall, which would turn the 2026 first received in the Carlo trade into an unprotected 2027 or 2028 first instead. However, in the event the Leafs select sixth or later in this year's draft, the pick will go to Boston. The odds of that pick being in the top five versus sixth or lower are about 50-50 at this point.

If the odds are in Boston's favor, they'll surely be able to get a top player in this draft class who not only can potentially help them immediately, but will absolutely help them through their next contention window. It's rare for a playoff team to have the opportunity to pick high in the draft the same year, so if the Bruins can get lucky and pull that off, it'd be hard not to consider this year a success in their book.

UFA’s/RFA’s

The good news for the Bruins is that they don’t have many pending free agents to worry about. Both Viktor Arvidsson and Andrew Peeke are set to be unrestricted free agents and surely have better chances of landing a big deal on the open market than returning to Boston. Arvidsson did have a pair of goals in the playoffs and finished the year fourth on the team in goals, so perhaps you consider an extension, but it wouldn't be worth breaking the bank with several young forwards potentially ready for more responsibility.

On the restricted free agent side, the Bruins have Lukas Reichel, Jordan Harris, and Matthew Poitras. While it’s pretty clear Poitras fell out of favor under the new coaching staff, all three will surely be given their qualifying offers and will return if they aren’t traded or given an offer sheet by another team. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

I’d say the biggest question for this group is, do they have what it takes to just run it back?

For as exciting as a core of David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Jeremy Swayman can be, it is valid to have some concerns about the future. Beyond McAvoy, you have a ton of question marks on the blue line. Hampus Lindholm isn’t getting any younger, Nikita Zadorov is also getting up there and just played a handful of games on a torn MCL, which isn’t going to help him age any better. Mason Lohrei is a solid player, but similarly to Poitras he seems to have fallen out of the picture with this coaching staff. It seems like a trade involving those two is only a matter of time.

Regarding their offense, they don’t have a clear-cut first line center. Pavel Zacha’s a guy I’ve always been high on but is best used as your second line center. Morgan Geekie was a phenomenal story this season, but you have to wonder how sustainable his contributions are to this team and who’s making up those points if he doesn’t? A drop off in his 68 points, as well as the 54 that pending UFA Viktor Arvidsson put up, and all of a sudden that's 75 points you need from other guys in your lineup.

They have the makings for a solid “identity line” with guys like Jeannot, Kuraly, Eyssimont, and Mark Kastelic as fourth line candidates. They have plenty of depth and some exciting young talent in Marat Khusnutdinov, James Hagens, and Fraser Minten. How they fill out the roster heading into next season is going to be a huge factor in their ability to remain a playoff team moving forward.

Projected Lineup 

Geekie - E. Lindholm - Pastrnak
Mittelstadt - Zacha - Khusnutdinov
Hagens - Minten - Eyssimont
Jeannot - Kuraly - Kastelic
Reichel* - Steeves 

Aspirot - McAvoy
H. Lindholm - Lohrei
Zadorov - Jokiharju
Harris*

Swayman - Korpisalo

(*-RFAs)

Next in line: Dean Letourneau, William Moore

Final Thoughts

The Bruins are in a position where even if they don’t make any significant trades or signings over the summer, they do have a lineup where they can attempt to run it back. I’d stress that finding a top-six forward and at least one quality defenseman to be a mainstay in their daily rotation are their two largest priorities. While there aren’t going to be a ton of answers on the market this summer, the Bruins do have the possibility of posessing the sixth or seventh overall pick, which would help them fill one of those holes. They also have tradeable assets in Lohrei and Poitras to try and answer those questions as well.

In the event they get the high pick this year, there's going to be plenty of players of interest to them on the draft board, and reaching for Daxon Rudolph or Ryan Lin could be the move seeing as they need a top four right handed defenseman to run the second pair behind McAvoy. If by some chance Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoeff fall, even better for them. As currently constructed, they don't have a ton of needle moving prospects outside of Dean Letourneau and maybe William Moore. While defense might be the bigger need, drafting a center or a right wing for that second line could also be a viable option.

Either way, the Bruins still have their own first rounder which will help rejuvenate their prospect pool as they look to progress through the retool and back into a contention window.