2026 Elimination Eval: Dallas Stars

When you think about contenders in the Western Conference, the Dallas Stars are easily one of the first three teams that come to mind. Since 2019, the Stars have made the playoffs every year, save for 2021, and have won at least one round every year except for 2022. This is a team that is as starved for a Stanley Cup as anyone, yet just a year after finishing three wins away from the Cup Final, faces the same questions they faced a year ago, but with less playoff success to show for it. 

Expectations

The Stars definitely drew the short straw getting stuck with the Minnesota Wild as a first round opponent. But even still, I’m confident if you asked anyone who the definitional favorite was in the West, the answer would be Colorado—but Dallas would be a not-so-close second. 

They kicked off the offseason by resigning captain Jamie Benn to an extremely team-friendly contract at $1 million for one year. Beyond that, they brought back Radek Faksa on an affordable three-year deal, signed Colin Blackwell to a two-year league minimum contract, but their main objective was to get Thomas Harley signed to a big extension. There were a few minor depth signings made prior to that, but the big news came later in the summer when it was announced that Harley had inked an eight-year deal with an AAV of just north of $10.5 million. 

On the trade front, the Stars also didn’t do much to really put themselves over the edge. They picked up Michael Bunting for a third round pick, which really didn’t seem to do much, and acquired veteran defenseman Tyler Myers for a second and fourth. While the moves were minimal on paper, the Stars had a strong enough core to not have to worry too much heading into the playoffs. 

Series Recap

In retrospect, you can probably label Game 1 of this series as the low moment for the Stars (outside of the elimination game, of course). Giving up four unanswered goals to start Game 1 of a series is never the start you want to get off to. Jason Robertson picked up the only Dallas goal of the game on the power play, which became a recurring theme throughout the series. The Stars would lose 6-1 with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy each collecting a pair of goals.

Game 2 was certainly a step in the right direction. Wyatt Johnston opened the scoring midway through the first, and while Brock Faber answered soon after, Matt Duchene picked up a power play goals (that's two) to regain the lead. Robertson would extend it, and despite Faber bringing the Wild back within one, Johnston secured the empty netter to win the game 4-2.

Game 3 became the high moment for the Stars as they took their first and only lead on the series in a double-overtime thriller. Mikko Rantanen opened the scoring just 85 seconds into the game, again on the power play (that's three) to establish an early lead. Robertson gave them some insurance, but three unanswered goals from Minnesota left Dallas in some trouble. Another power play goal (four) in the third period sent the game to overtime. After 30 minutes of bonus hockey, it was Wyatt Johnston again, on the power play again (five), to secure the win.

Game 4 became the game-changing moment of the series considering the game was, once again, decided in overtime. Robertson opened the scoring on the power play (six) and Faber tied it later in the period. Miro Heiskanen found his first of the series on the power play (seven) to make it a 2-1 game and a late third period goals from Marcus Foligno forced overtime. Just 29 seconds away from another night of double overtime, Boldy converted to tie up the series.

With the series back on home ice, game five was another contender for Dallas' low point. Mats Zuccarello opened the scoring early but Heiskanen tied it up on—you'll never guess—the power play (eight) to make it 2-1. Down by a pair in the third, Robertson scored at even strength to come within one, but an empty netter from Kirill Kaprizov gave them insurance with two minutes to go. After another tough loss, Dallas was at risk of a devastating a first round exit.

After Quinn Hughes opened the scoring in Game 6, Johnston took advantage of yet another power play (nine) to tie the score. For less than a minute of total time in this game the Stars led, as Mavrik Bourque made it a 2-1 game. However, with three minutes to go, Vladimir Tarasenko tied it and then it was Quinn Hughes who scored the goal responsible for ending the Stars' season. A pair of empty netters made the score sound worse than the loss truly was, but it doesn't matter.

The Stars fell short and a consistent failure to convert at 5-v-5 was a huge part in that. In the end nine of the 15 goals they scored in the postseason came on the power play.

Prediction

Congratulations to Eric who was the only one of us who predicted the Wild to win the series. It may have seemed like many of us were down on the Wild, but at least speaking for myself, it was more about the team we thought Dallas was. They haven't been perfect in recent history, but they've been a consistent favorite in the West. They're certainly due and they've done a great job of bridging the gap between the core of the old and the core of the new. There were plenty of reasons to continue believing in them.

Was the Season a Success?

Dallas was in the same situation as the Oilers: Anything short of a Stanley Cup is considered a failure for the Stars. Not only are they due, but time is running out for some of their longest-tenured players, specifically their captain Jamie Benn. Tyler Seguin won a Cup with Boston very early on in his career, but surely he wants to add a second in his time with the Stars. Now there’s a very real possibility that his injury is severe enough to leave his future in the NHL in jeopardy. Can they make a long term contract work for Robertson, and maybe give him or one of the other core pieces the "C" and take this team in a new direction with the same goal in mind?

UFAs/RFAs

For the second season in a row, the big name UFA in Dallas is their captain, Jamie Benn. Beyond him, there’s Michael Bunting, Adam Erne, Nathan Bastian, Alex Petrovic, and Kyle Capobianco. I’m not sure there’s much to worry about here if you’re Dallas. It might be time to move on from Benn altogether, but if he wants to come back for cheap and see this through again, then by all means. I’m not sure why, I always saw him going to Pittsburgh at the end of his career. Just throwing that out there.

Speaking of (former) Penguins, I don’t know what to think of Bunting any more. He made a name for himself in Toronto, but has been moved around the league nonstop since. Don’t see Dallas needing to dedicate any of the little cap space they have to him or any other pending UFAs. 

RFAs are where this team needs to place all their attention. Jason Robertson is not a player you move on from unless he directly states that he wants to move on from them. Whatever it takes to keep him in Dallas for a long time, you have to figure out how to get it done. Next on the priority list is Mavrik Bourque. I believe at times, there’s been some question marks surrounding his future in Dallas, but I can’t imagine they wouldn’t look to extend him, even if only on a shorter term bridge deal. Nils Lundkvist recently signed a two-year deal to stick around, and I imagine Arttu Hyry could be next, seeing as he shouldn’t cost a ton.  

Biggest Question Moving Forward

Last season, the biggest question surrounding the Stars had to do with the uncertainties of Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson, and an aging Tyler Seguin. Those same questions are all prevalent again this time around, which means the question now becomes, is this team’s window closing?

In terms of the greater picture, the Stars are one of the better run organizations in the league. They may not have a ton of prospects lined up, but they always manage to turn AHL talent into NHL players. This season alone you can look at Justin Hyrckowian and Arttu Hyry as examples. While this team once lived and died by Benn and Seguin, it’s obvious the core is now built around Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen, and Thomas Harley. Robertson is a huge caveat in how this team moves forward, but if they can keep him around, they’ll be just fine. 

Projected Lineup 

Robertson* - Hintz - Bourque*
Hryckowian - Johnston - Rantanen
Steel - Duchene - Seguin?
Back - Faksa - Hyry*
Blackwell
Lindell - Heiskanen
Harley - Lybushkin
Bischel - Myers
Lundkvist

Oettinger - DeSmith

(*-RFAs)

Next in line: Emil Hemming

Final Thoughts

Realistically, if the Stars can get Robertson and all their other pending RFAs signed to extensions and remain cap compliant enough to still add at the deadline, who’s to say they aren’t capable of running it back with mainly the same group?

However, I’m just not sure if that’s the best course of action for them. They have a big decision to make with Benn (again), Duchene isn’t getting any younger, and who knows if Seguin is going to be an option for them any more. If that’s the case, you may as well consider shaking things up more significantly.

Dallas doesn’t have any promising prospects (Scott Wheeler of The Athletic has them 31st in the league in prospect rankings), that's something they're going to have to begin addressing sooner rather than later. I'd be interested to see what this team looks like with Benn out of the picture and perhaps one of Robertson, Hintz, or Heiskanen as captain. They still have the goaltending, they have star defensemen, a strong forward group, and they're close.

But, as we all know, time passes. Moments are fleeting. Presidents Trophy winners can find themselves in the basement at the drop (or throw) of a hat (helmet).