2026 Elimination Eval: Tampa Bay Lightning

Wrapping up round one of this year’s Elimination Evals, the Tampa Bay Lightning were part of the only first round series that went to a seventh this year. After winning back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2021 and 2022, the Lightning have struggled to find success in the postseason. Between injuries and an aging core, a fourth consecutive first round exit could be enough to spur some questions about the process and consider a bigger change.

Expectations

At the end of the day, we’re still talking about the Tampa Bay Lightning. The expectation is going to be for them to remain a top team in the Atlantic until they aren’t. With the Montreal Canadiens and now Buffalo Sabres having the success they are, there could start to be a changing of the guard atop the Atlantic. But for what this season's expectations were, it was that Tampa was going to be a heavy favorite. Across the board, we all had Tampa finishing second in the division except for Tom who had them finishing first. 

As a testament to how strong of a foundation the Lightning have, they barely made any additions through the offseason and at the 2026 trade deadline. Over the summer, they made a couple depth signings, bringing on Jakob Pelletier, Scott Sabourin, and Pontus Holmberg. During the summer, they made a prospect swap, sending Isaac Howard to Edmonton for Sam O’Reilly, but beyond that, the only trade they made was to acquire Corey Perry for a future second round pick. Typically, having Corey Perry on your roster has been enough to secure a spot in the Cup final, but that streak came to an end this season. 

Series Recap

Right off the bat this was, without a doubt, one of the most exciting playoff series to watch in the opening round. For as much as Tampa may have been the favorites, to not expect Montreal to give them a run for their money would have been foolish, and the Canadiens proved that in Game 1. Josh Anderson opened the scoring with six and a half minutes to go in the first period, but a pair of goals from Darren Raddysh and Brandon Hagel in a span of 29 seconds gave Tampa a quick lead. But Juraj Slafkovsky would become the storyline in this one. Not only would he tie the game at the end of the second, he gave Montreal a lead early in the third period, and went on to complete the hat-trick, winning the game in overtime. On Tampa’s side of the ice, it was Hagel establishing himself as the early stand out, picking up his second of the night on the power play to send the game to overtime midway through the third. 

Hagel picked up right where he left off in Game 2 as he gave Tampa the lead close to the midway point of period one. Lane Hutson would tie it on the power play later in the period, and a late goal in the second from Anderson gave Montreal the lead. Nikita Kucherov scored a big goal with seven and a half to go in the third which forced an overtime for the second game in a row. This time, it was J.J. Moser who played the hero, off a fantastic rush from the point. This was a penalty-loaded game with lots of coincidental minors, as well as a proper fight, which gave Hagel a Gordie Howe hat trick.

Game 3 would be the third consecutive contest decided in overtime. Alexandre Texier opened the scoring five minutes in and Brayden Point answered on the power play about three minutes later. Hagel gave Tampa the lead early in the second and, this time it was Kirby Dach with the answer, tying the game up at two. After a scoreless third, it was another defenseman that went on to be the hero. This time it was Montreal’s Lane Hutson, picking up his second of the playoffs on a slap shot, ending it just two minutes into bonus hockey. 

Game 4 was the first game of the series that didn’t go to overtime, and was a key moment of the series. After trailing 2-0 from a pair of goals in three minutes midway through the second, Jake Guentzel picked up his first of the series to bring Tampa within one in the final minute of the second period. A pair of goals from Brandon Hagel—who, let’s be honest, was making a way too early case for the Conn Smythe Trophy—led the Lightning’s rally to tie the series up at two with a 3-2 win.

Anytime a series goes seven, game fives tend to be a difference-maker. This one was no different, as Game 5 was the game-changing moment of the series at Tampa’s expense. Tampa would answer within the next ten minutes after each Montreal goal. Tallies from Guenzel and Dominic James tied things up at two, but Alexandre Texier would pick up the game winner to push Tampa to the brink headed back to Montreal.

The Lightning answered with their high point of the series, as Gage Goncalves scored the only goal in overtime of Game 6 to give Tampa a 1-0 win and force the series back to Florida for a Game 7. 

This was obviously the low point for Tampa, as they not only lost the game and the series, but they held Montreal to just nine shots on goal. Jakub Dobes was incredible posting a .966 save percentage, allowing only a power play goal from Dominic James midway through the second. A late first period goal from Nick Suzuki and an Alex Newhook goal midway through the third was enough to take the series from Tampa, making them yet another first round exit. 

Prediction

Overall, we were pretty split predicting this series. I was a little overconfident and said Montreal in five as Roberto was closer saying Montreal in six. Outside of the two of us, everyone else had Tampa taking the series in five or six games. In hindsight, it made sense that this series went the full seven games. This was fantastic hockey from start to finish and a hard-fought battle right until the end. While losing in Game 7 is never something you want to experience, you have to respect Montreal for what they were able to accomplish through that opening round.

Was the Season a Success?

It feels funny to say this season was a failure for Tampa Bay, because if we’re truth telling, I would happily accept four consecutive first round exits from the playoffs if it came in the wake of a pair of Stanley Cup championships. At the end of the day, Tampa had aspirations of becoming a dynasty, and while back-to-back Cups will never not be impressive, that's simply not a dynasty.

As such, this season, just as the last few were, was a failure and a significant short-coming. As mentioned, this team has dealt with injuries and their core isn’t getting any younger. You only get so many kicks at the can, and while many players on this roster have accomplished their championship aspirations, winning only makes you hungrier to keep winning. Or so I’ve been told. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

The Lightning do have some relatively big name UFA’s expected to be up for grabs on July 1 this summer.

Darren Raddysh is arguably the most enticing name for many teams as he’s coming off an unprecedentedly remarkable season. As a right-shot defenseman who can slot into a top four, he will surely make a ton of money this summer, meaning he is almost certainly moving on from Tampa. While he should absolutely not be on the New York Rangers radar, there are two pending UFA’s in Tampa the Rangers should have their eyes on. The first is Oliver Bjorkstrand, as he could be a lower-risk solution for their top six. The other player is depth forward Mitchell Chaffee, who had success with Tampa last season and has been a point-per-game player for them in the AHL. 

Beyond those three, there’s also the 40-year-old Corey Perry, fringe NHL enforcer Scott Sabourin, fringe NHL defenseman Declan Carlile, and pending RFA Ethan Samson. There’s always a chance Tampa hangs on to a handful of those names, but realistically, they can move from all their pending free agents and will still be fine. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

Jon Cooper is coveted as one of the elite coaches in the NHL. Likewise, the Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the most praised organizations in the entire league for the way they’re coached, the way they develop talent, and the way they implement their systems.

The biggest question after four consecutive first round exits is, what needs to change? Clearly trusting the process isn’t working, at least not the way you’d like it to. Do you need to make a big trade? Do they need to change the way they play the game? Has Jon Cooper run his course here in Tampa? 

As you’ll see below, Tampa doesn’t even need to sign anybody in the off-season and they’ll still have one of the stronger rosters in the Eastern Conference. Scott Wheeler of The Athletic had their prospect pool ranked 24th in the league, yet it always seems like they manage to find a way to turn late round draft picks like Dominic James and Emil Lilleberg into serviceable NHL players. And that's not to mention that they still have a few promising prospects in the pipeline. 

Projected Lineup 

Hagel - Cirelli - Kucherov
Paul - Point - Guentzel
Girgensons - Gourde - Holmberg
Pelletier - James - Goncalves
Geekie

Moser - Hedman
McDonagh - Cernak
Lilleberg - Crozier
D’Astous - Santini

Vasilevskiy - Johansson 

Next in line: Sam O’Reilly, Ethan Gauthier

Final Thoughts

I’m not counting this group out until it gets to a point where they officially miss out on the playoffs.

Perhaps they’ll drop to a wild card position with Montreal and Buffalo looking as good as they do right now, but I expect them to have another good regular season and we’ll see what happens next year. Free agency really isn’t going to be the place to make a splash this summer, so they’re going to have to see what their options are on the trade market. Whether that’s over the summer, during the season, or at the trade deadline, it does seem like the only path forward for this group.

If we’re having these same conversations this time next year and they either miss the playoffs or lose in the first round again, then I start to consider Jon Cooper’s future a bit more seriously.