2026 Elimination Eval: Vegas Golden Knights

Despite making it to the Stanley Cup Final for the third time in their less-than-a-decade-long franchise history, the Vegas Golden Knights fell short to the Carolina Hurricanes, just two wins away from their second championship. 

Expectations

Just three years removed from a Stanley Cup championship, the Vegas Golden Knights were coming off a disappointing run last season where they lost to the Edmonton Oilers in the second round. While the expectation was for them to at least bounce back from that and go a little further, we know based on how this organization operates that there was only one goal: do whatever it takes to win now. 

Vegas had a pretty quiet free agency period, but for good reason. Their offseason began with a trade that sent Nic Hague and a second round pick to Nashville in exchange for Colton Sissons and Jeremy Lauzon, but the work didn’t stop there.

The move of the summer came in a sign-and-trade which sent Mitch Marner from the Toronto Maple Leafs to Vegas on a long-term deal in exchange for Nicolas Roy. With Marner’s new deal eating up most of their available cap space, the Golden Knights mainly just made minor depth signings on the open market. Prior to that, they extended Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith on matching one year, $2 million deals, as well as Kaeden Korczak who was given a four-year extension for $3.25 million AAV. 

Ahead of the trade deadline, Vegas continued to make moves, acquiring Nic Dowd from the Washington Capitals for a 2029 second round pick, a 2027 third, and a Jesper Vikman. They picked up Cole Smith from Nashville for a future third and most notably, landed Rasmus Andersson from the Calgary Flames for Zach Whitecloud, Abram Wiebe, a 2027 first and a 2028 second. Not only was Andersson one of the biggest names available, but he had chemistry with Noah Hanifin from his time in Calgary. 

However, Vegas' most surprising move wasn't a trade, or a signing, but the decision to fire Bruce Cassidy and replace him with John Tortorella just weeks before the start of the postseason.

Series Recap

Despite giving up the first goal of the series against the Utah Mammoth, Vegas got off to the right start as they scored three unanswered goals in the third period of Game 1 to pull off a 4-2 victory. They were getting depth scoring from guys like Colton Sissons and Nic Dowd, Carter Hart made 31 saves to give them the chance to win, they significantly out-hit Utah, and had quite the edge in the face-off dot. By all accounts, Vegas showed up as expected, but it wasn’t long before things flipped. Utah pulled off a huge Game 2 win thanks to a third period goal from Logan Cooley, and a pair of Lawson Crouse goals gave them a 4-2 win in Game 3. Facing adversity early, the Golden Knights need to bounce back and would get that in the form of an overtime game winner in Game 4. 

After building a commanding 3-0 lead early in the second period, Utah scored four unanswered to regain the lead early in the third period. After Brett Howden tied it midway through the final period of regulation, it was Shea Theodore who was the hero in the final minute of the first overtime period. It was a huge moment in the opening round to tie the series up which proved to be a game changer as Vegas won the next two games, scoring five goals in each outing. After scoring his first two goals of the postseason in Game 4, Brett Howden was the clutch performer for the Golden Knights, scoring the double overtime winner in Game 5. Pavel Dorofeyev, who also scored his first in Game 4, picked up a hat-trick to get the team to that double OT. That momentum carried into Game 6 as Vegas led 2-0 through forty minutes and scored three unanswered goals after Utah got on the board to advance to the Conference Semifinal where they’d face the Anaheim Ducks. 

It was much of the same to kick off Round 2. In addition to Howden and Dorofeyev, Mitch Marner was beginning to step up as an X-factor in these playoffs, as he notched his third of the postseason on the empty netter that gave them the 3-1 win. However, Anaheim wasn’t going down without a fight. After a scoreless first, they scored three unanswered goals in Game 2 to tie the series up at one, with a latee goal from Mark Stone spoiling the shutout in a 3-1 loss of their own.

Game 3 was where Marner’s game really took off. A natural hat-trick helped put things out of reach in what became a 6-2 victory to regain the series lead. 

Howden and Dorofeyev added to their growing goal tallies to keep up with a desperate Anaheim team in Game 4, but it wouldn’t be enough as Ian Moore’s first career playoff goal was the difference maker as the Ducks tied the series up at two.

This made for an all important Game 5 that would be decided in another overtime. With the score tied at two, it was Dorofeyev picking up his seventh of the postseason and second of the game to give Vegas the win in overtime. It can’t be overstated just how important his contributions were to this Vegas team, alongside Mitch Marner and Brett Howden. It was the two of them who opened the scoring in Game 6 and a pair from Dorofeyev in the third that gave the Golden Knights the series clinching win by a score of 5-1. Marner’s goal was arguably the goal of the playoffs, pulling off a crazy between-the-legs move on a partial breakaway to find the back of the net. 

Vegas was set to be really be tested in the Conference Final as they took on the Colorado Avalanche, but injuries gave them a bit of a break. With no Cale Makar in the lineup, the Golden Knights took a 2-0 lead into the first intermission and stayed the course to win Game 1 by a score of 4-2, buoyed by goals from Dorofeyev and Howden. The injuries and wear and tear continued to take a toll on Colorado as the series went on. Despite opening the scoring in Game 2, Colorado gave up three in the third to go down in the series 2-0.

Game 3 brought Vegas’ first real challenge as they trailed 3-0 after twenty minutes of play. A challenge that was quickly overcome thanks to five unanswered goals, beginning with yet another Mark Stone power play goal—his third of the postseason— just 19 seconds into the second. William Karlsson and Keegan Kolesar picked timely moments for their first of the playoffs, extending the lead to three, with Tomas Hertl making it four, and Howden’s 10th of the postseason into the empty net to win 5-3. Vegas would complete the sweep in Game 4, as they shut down the Avalanche who were running on fumes. For the third time in nine years, Vegas was the Western Conference Champion. 

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, Nikolaj Ehlers had a pair of goals for the Carolina Hurricanes but Vegas’ persistence kept them engaged. After Theodore brought it within one, an early second period goal from Ivan Barbashev tied it, and William Karlsson gave them the lead just four minutes later. While Jordan Staal—who had quite the playoff run of his own—tied it in the second, it was goals from Howden and Hertl that gave Vegas that all important Game 1 victory. Game 2 proved to be much tighter, but Howden continued to light the lamp, scoring both of Vegas’ first two goals. Two minutes away from losing in regulation, Stone forced the game to overtime, but Seth Jarvis would score on a power play to tie the series at one. 

Game 3 was the high point for Vegas, as it really felt like this could be the moment that defined the series. Tied at one game apiece, Mitch Marner had another potential legacy game, scoring the quickest hat-trick in Stanley Cup history. 

After Hertl opened the scoring, four goals in six and a half minutes gave Vegas a 4-0 lead. But four unanswered Carolina goals sent the game to overtime. The generational choke job was saved by yet another Shea Theodore overtime game winner five and a half minutes into a second overtime period. It was a goal that proved sometimes just shooting the puck really can be the most effective strategy, as the shot went wide, bounced off the boards, off the skate of Brandon Bussi and in. 

Vegas had luck on its side in Game 3, but that would be their final win of the postseason, as Bussi taking over in Carolina’s net was the game changing moment in the series for the Hurricanes. From that point on, Vegas could not score or generate offense the way they had most of these playoffs. It also didn’t help them that Carter Hart’s play took a massive drop, allowing four or more goals in all but one of the six Cup Final games he played. The decision to not pull him for Hill was certainly questionable, but all things considered, it really just felt like this was Carolina’s year. Vegas had a great run, got some outstanding performances from a number of players, but in the end, it wasn’t enough, as the Hurricanes prevailed as Stanley Cup champions, four games to two.

Prediction

I had Vegas going all the way to the Conference Final but expected them to lose to Colorado. In our roundtable at the start of the postseason, Roberto was the only one brave enough to take Utah, as we all had Vegas advancing to at least the second round. That said, it wasn't a massive surprise to see them get as far as they did as they were certainly viewed as a contender in the West for most of the season.

Was the Season a Success?

When you’re playing a slot machine, you don’t look at all the different jackpots and say, "you know, I really hope I hit that $100 max prize." You’re looking at that seven digit jackpot that is slowly and steadily increasing as you continue to bet, wanting nothing more than to come out of the day with that in your pocket.

That’s how Vegas views success. They don’t care about Presidents’ Trophies, or winning the division, or the conference, nor are ever going to be content to just getting back to the Cup Final. They want to win it all. From an outside perspective, you can maybe pencil this season as somewhat of a success, but nobody within the Golden Knights organization is going to feel happy about falling two wins shy of their second Stanley Cup. In that sense, this season wasn’t an abject failure, but it was still a shortcoming. 

UFAs/RFAs

Vegas is going to have a busy summer with a long list of pending UFAs. Most notabe is Rasmus Andersson, who they paid an arm and a leg for at the trade deadline, who will be at risk of hitting the open market if they don’t sign him to an extension before July 1. Beyond that, Reilly Smith, Colton Sissons, Brandon Saad, Jeremy Lauzon, Dylan Coghlan, Cole Smith, and Ben Hutton are all names that could be on the move. Frankly, Vegas could decide to keep a guy like Smith or Sissons, or perhaps even Lauzon around for another year or two. But given the market, they should be far more interested in making generational wealth in free agency. 

On the RFA side, the Golden Knights have a big decision to make with Pavel Dorofeyev, who could be due for a big pay raise. Aside from him, it’s just Akira Schmid who could re-sign on a modest extension, but who could also be on the move. In order to get Dorofeyev signed to a new deal, Vegas is going to have to find a way to move money around one way or another. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

Honestly, there are lots of questions to ask about the Vegas Golden Knights.

They've already made a call behind the bench, parting ways with late-season hire John Tortorella and elevating AHL Henderson head coach Ryan Craig to the big job. Do they re-sign Rasmus Andersson? Do they try to move guys like William Karlsson or even Mark Stone, who are entering the final years of their contracts? Do they really have an answer in goal with either Carter Hart or Adin Hill? Vegas still has good bones to their current roster, but the biggest question for me is, what big swing do they take next in order to remain a serious threat in the Western Conference? 

As things stand right now, if all their pending UFAs walk, they have some serious holes in the bottom half of their roster. Dylan Larkin would help them out tremendously. Although, while Vegas may be on his three team trade list, I don’t see a world in which the Golden Knights can put together an offer that would be considered even remotely serious. They don’t have a first round pick until 2028, their only halfway decent prospect—Trevor Connelly—comes with serious character concerns, not to mention PR problems. What’s Vegas going to offer for Larkin? A 2028 first and the signing rights to Rasmus Andersson? If I’m Steve Yzerman, I hang up the phone and block the number. 

Projected Lineup 

Dorofeyev* - Eichel - Stone
Barbaschev - Howden - Marner
? - Hertl - Bowman
? - Dowd - Kolesar 

McNabb - Theodore
Hanifin - ?
? - Korczak

Hill - Hart

Next in line:

• Forwards: Trevor Connelly 
• Defenseman: Arttu Karki 

(*-RFAs) (^-UFAs)

Final Thoughts

Vegas was a remarkable story their first few years in the league. Winning a Stanley Cup so early into their tenure as a franchise as “The Golden Misfits” was easy to enjoy and appreciate. Their cut-throat way of doing business in order to try and build a dynasty right out the gate felt a bit cold, but was bold enough to respect—to an extent.

Now, they’ve made too many questionable decisions to warrant that reputation. Drafting a kid with as much controversy as Connelly, signing Carter Hart after the Hockey Canada case concluded, denying Bruce Cassidy from being able to interview another job, all the salary cap shenanigans, the whole deal with Torts not addressing the media and costing them a second round draft pick. The list goes on.

Unless you're a Vegas local and have been with them from the start, they just aren't an easy team to root for anymore. Maybe they're in fine enough shape to run it back next season, or maybe they'll pull off more crazy trades to stay competitive. But if they finally reach a point where they need to go through their first real retool, I don't think they'll get too much sympathy from the majority of hockey fans.