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Rangers By The Numbers Analytics Preview: Game #37 - Rangers @ Ducks

The New York Rangers begin their California road trip with a tough test against Ryan Getzlaf and the Anaheim Ducks.

Rangers vs Ducks coverage

Time Wednesday, 10:30 EST
TV NBCSN/MSG+
Season Series 0-0
Last Meeting 
-
The Enemy Anaheim Calling Scoring Leaders

R. Nash 24-14-38
R. Getzlaf 13-31-44

Rangers
CATEGORY
Ducks
21-11-4 SEASON RECORD 26-9-6
46 (4th Metro) Points 58 (1st Pacific)
1.28 (9th NHL) Standing Points Per Game 1.41 (2nd NHL)
Won 2
Streak Won 2
2.6 (5th)
5v5 GF/60
2.2 (16th)
2.1 (T-12th)
5v5 GA/60
2.0 (T-3rd)
20.4 (10th) Power Play % 15.4 (23rd)
82.6 (11th) Penalty Kill % 79.4 (21st)
9.2 (8th) PIM / GP 12.0 (25th)
51.9 (23rd) 5v5 CF/60 56.0 (10th)
51.2 (7th) 5v5 CA/60 54.2 (17th)
103.1 (3rd) 5v5 Corsi Pace/60 (low to high) 110.4 (22nd)
50.7 (17th)
5v5 SCORE ADJUSTED CORSI
51.7 (15th)
50.2 (19th) 5v5 Score Adjusted Fenwick 51.9 (11th)
51.3 (13th) 5v5 Score Adjusted Scoring Chances For %(SCF%) 52.4 (11th)
55.9 (5th) 5v5 Score Adjusted Goals For % 52.5 (10th)
50.3 (18th)

5v5 Raw Corsi

51.1 (14th)
24.4 (23rd) 5v5 SCF/60 26.5 (13th)
22.6 (3rd) 5v5 SCA/60 24.1 (T-7th)
49.8 (18th) 5v5 ZSO % 51.2 (12th)
9.36 (2nd) 5v5 Shooting % 7.87 (14th)
92.37 (16th) 5v5 Save % 92.51 (13th)

J.T. Miller +4.6

K. Klein +4.5

5v5 Score Adjusted CF%Rel Leaders

(min 150 min)

J. Manson +7.5

M. Beleskey +5.1

D. Girardi -7.3

T. Glass -6.2

5v5 Score Adjusted CF%Rel Anchors

(min 150 min)

R. Bourque -10.1

C. Stoner -5.6

J.T. Miller 61.1

D. Boyle 57.1

5v5 Score Adjusted SCF% Leaders

(min 150 min)

M. Beleskey 57.7

W. Karlsson 57.7


Key to the Game: Take Advantage of Bryzgalov and Play "Our Game"

Anaheim is an interesting team. They utilize a lot of dump and chase, assumedly to start cycles, bury teams low in their own zone, and prevent transition the other way while taking best advantage of some of their size. Take a look at this interesting piece about Anaheim scoring plays, from our friends over at Anaheim Calling, done by Kid ish. However, they then still all too often get in foot races up and down the ice. From that, they have, at times, been prone to trading chances or outright score effecting away a lead with teams that don't have half of the talent they have.

For a very long time now, they have been able to get by winning close games while not exactly playing an optimal style of hockey, especially given their big, fast and skilled (GETZLAF! PERRY!) personnel. They win one goal games at what many of us #fancystatters would say is an entirely unsustainable rate. But here they are, sustaining it and maintaining the second best team points per game in the entire NHL. Doing what they've done for the past few seasons now.

They middle in a lot of things. But they don't really fail in anything. But they DO have an achilles heel. It's that after the Great Dane Frederik Andersen, they have absolutely no goaltending to speak of. They will rely on Ilya Bryzgalov tonight, who will make just his second start of his season.

The Rangers know Bryz, and have to jump on this opportunity. But make no mistake, they do not want to trade chances with this team. They want to play their preferred style of low event hockey, buoyed by quick countering rushes that generate high probability dynamic scoring chances that transition across the middle of the ice (or, as Steve Valiquette calls it, "Royal Road"). By doing what they have done so well during their recent stretch of success, which is, eliminating rush opportunities for the opposition and forcing low percentage shots, Anaheim should play into their hands.

Take a look at the Hextally Charts below to see a bit of what I mean. If the Rangers play their preferred style, they should be alright in this game.

Hextally Shot Charts: Prevent and Create

New York:

NYR Hextally 1-7-15

Anaheim:

Anaheim Hextally 1-7-15

Projected Lineups:

New York:

Forwards: Rick Nash-Derick Brassard-Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider-Derek Stepan-Martin St. Louis, Carl Hagelin-Kevin Hayes-Jesper Fast, J.T. Miller-Dominic Moore-Lee Stempniak

Defensemen: Ryan McDonagh-Dan Girardi, Marc Staal-Dan Boyle, John Moore-Kevin Klein

Starting goalie: Henrik Lundqvist

Healthy scratches: F Tanner Glass, D Matt Hunwick

Injury/Illness: None.

Anaheim:

Forwards: Rene Bourque-Ryan Getzlaf-Corey Perry, Matt Beleskey-Ryan Kesler-Kyle Palmieri, Andrew Cogliano-Rickard Rakell-Jakob Silfverberg, Patrick Maroon-Nate Thompson-Devante Smith-Pelly

Defensemen: Cam Fowler-Ben Lovejoy, Hampus Lindholm-Francois Beauchemin, Clayton Stoner-Sami Vatanen

Starting goalie: Ilya Bryzgalov

Projected healthy scratches: F Tim Jackman, D Mark Fitstric, D Colby Robak

Injury/Illness: D Eric Brewer (broken foot)

Stats compiled from: nhl.com, puckon.net, war-on-ice.com, and stats.hockeyanalysis.com