Elimination Eval: Carolina Hurricanes

Despite going through a massive overhaul in the last year, the Carolina Hurricanes continued to be a top team in the Eastern Conference all season long and made it as far as the Conference Final for the third time in six years. Alas, their aggressive defensive style was not enough to stop the Florida Panthers and leaves Carolina in a frustrated position as they navigate another offseason ahead.  

Expectations

Heading into the playoffs, this was the seventh consecutive postseason that the Carolina Hurricanes were in the playoff picture. Since the Rod Brind’Amour coaching era began, Carolina has made three trips to the Eastern Conference Final, made it to the semifinals three times, and have lost in the first (official) round once during the COVID-19 season.  As such, the Hurricanes are not only regarded as one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, but as one of the best coached teams in the league, as Brind’Amour has really established a strong culture with an effective system.

With that in mind, the expectation is that this team is capable of competing for and winning a Stanley Cup, and the goal is for them to finally get there. In an attempt to do so, the Hurricanes made some key moves in the off-season, signing Sean Walker, Shayne Gostisbehere, Eric Robinson, Will Carrier, and Jack Roslovic as free agents. Given how many players from the year prior they lost to free agency themselves, retooling was essential and, looking back, they did a solid job of doing so. 

The work wouldn’t end there as Carolina had a busy season on the trade front. In a massive three-way trade, the Hurricanes acquired Taylor Hall from the Chicago Blackhawks and Mikko Rantanen from the Colorado Avalanche, while giving up Martin Necas, Jack Drury, and some significant draft capital. After giving Rantanen some time to adjust to the new team, they determined that it wasn’t the right fit and it became clear that he wasn’t going to resign there. As such, the Hurricanes flipped him to the Dallas Stars in exchange for Logan Stankoven, two future first round draft picks, and two thirds. Additionally, they picked up Mark Jankowski from Nashville for a 5th round pick. 

This was the second season in a row the Hurricanes took a big swing at the deadline, as they got Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh the year prior. I will say, the fact that they were able to acquire a player of Rantanen’s caliber, and go on to flip him for as solid of a return as they did, is pretty remarkable. You could argue that they shouldn’t have traded for Rantanen in the first place, but given how good Stankoven became for them and all the draft capital they received, it's hard to say it didn't all work out in the end.

Playoff Recap

The Hurricanes drew the New Jersey Devils in the opening round of the playoffs and frankly, they couldn’t have drawn things up any better if they even wanted to. Despite finishing the regular season on a bit of a losing streak, the Hurricanes would win the series four games to one. In round two, the Hurricanes would take on the Washington Capitals, and similarly dispatch them in five games. For the third time since 2019, the Hurricanes were headed to the Eastern Conference Final.

Carolina may have had home ice advantage, but it only took Florida about eight and a half minutes to take the home ice wind out of their sails, as an early power play allowed for Carter Verhaeghe to make it a 1-0 game. Rod Brind'Amour mentioned in the postgame press conference that special teams were a deciding factor in this one, but frankly it didn’t feel like Carolina had much of a chance, as Aaron Ekblad extended the Panthers' lead at even strength just four minutes later. A.J. Greer made it 3-1 in the second and then another power play gave Sam Bennett the opportunity to extend his lead in postseason goals as he made it 4-1. The final score would be 5-2 in Florida’s favor, making Game 2 all the more important. 

Given who their opponent was and the fact that they already dropped a game on home ice, Game 2 became a potential game changing moment in the series for Carolina and it would not go in their favor. Just 77 seconds into the game, Gustav Forsling picked up his first of the postseason to make it 1-0. When all was said and done after the first period, the Panthers had a 3-0 lead and the Hurricanes were in quite the hole. Sam Bennett picked up his second of the game in the second period and Aleksander Barkov picked one up in the third to cap off a dominant 5-0 win. To put into perspective what the vibe in Raleigh was like, disheartened fans were left chanting “shoot the puck” as the Hurricanes finished the game with just 17 shots on goal.

If that wasn’t the low point, Game 3 certainly was as the Hurricanes couldn’t prevent Florida from taking a 3-0 lead in the series. Things were fine through the first two periods as Logan Stankoven was able to tie the game up at one late in the second period. However, the third period would be a disaster. Five goals in ten and a half minutes from the Panthers completely took over the game as the Hurricanes were left stunned and at risk of being swept. 

Game 4 would be the lone high moment in the series for Carolina. With their backs against the wall, Logan Stankoven struck first midway through the second to give his team a 1-0 lead. A pair of empty net goals late in the game completed a 3-0 win for the Hurricanes as Frederik Andersen made 20 saves for a shutout. It also definitely helped Carolina that the Panthers were playing without Bennett, Greer, and Niko Mikkola for the night. 

For a brief moment in time, it looked as if the Hurricanes might have had some fight in them. After the first twenty minutes of play in Game 5, they held a 2-0 lead thanks to a pair of goals from Sebastian Aho—a lead they held onto for the first six minutes of the second which is exactly around the time I turned the TV off and went to bed. Had I changed my mind and turned the TV back on a mere minute later, it would have literally been a whole new game. Florida scored two goals in a matter of 30 seconds and then just four minutes later, the Panthers took a 3-2 lead on an Anton Lundell goal. Seth Jarvis tied the game in the third, but shortly after it was Carter Verhaeghe regaining the lead for the Panthers. Sam Bennett picked up the empty netter to put any hopes of a comeback to bed and an end to the Hurricanes season, four games to one.

Prediction 

My bracket had Carolina losing (to the Leafs) in the Eastern Conference Final, so at least in regard I was somewhat accurate. I called their first round beating the Devils in five, I said Canes in six for Round 2 with the Caps, they got it done in five. And I saw this result coming with Florida in five. For the most part, I’d say people expected Carolina to get this far but beating the Panthers was always going to be a daunting task. 

Was the Season a Success? 

The short answer is, no, on account of the fact that the Hurricanes have been a mainstay in the playoff picture every year since 2019 and have gotten this far three times in that stretch. The contention window for this team is still wide open, but the longer they don’t get it done, the more likely that window is to slam shut at any given moment. I’d go a step further and say that if any team, on paper, plays a style of game that should be able to compete with Florida’s style, it’s a team that plays the game like Carolina—tight defensively, aggressive on the forecheck in all zones, and not afraid to bring a physical edge. Alas, when push came to shove, it wasn’t enough as the Panthers ended up running away with the series. 

When you look at the bigger picture, it isn’t completely unreasonable to suggest that the Hurricanes were successful in some aspects. Especially when you consider how many players they lost to free agency last season, the fact that they were able to do some retooling and remain as competitive as they were in itself is impressive. Then to top it off, they went out and pulled off a blockbuster trade to acquire Mikko Rantanen from Colorado, determined that it wasn’t the right fit, and pulled off another blockbuster that honestly worked out better for them than the Rantanen move did. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

The good news for Carolina is they don't have any RFA’s to worry about, but they do have a handful of notable UFA’s to make some decisions on. That list includes a couple of former friends in Jack Roslovic and Jesper Fast, as well as Brent Burns, Dmitry Orlov, Eric Robinson, and Tyson Jost. Burns and Orlov would come as major losses to their back end, but given Burns’ age and Orlov’s potential to make a ton of money on the open market could lead to them both moving on. Tyson Jost will also likely hit the open market. 

Jack Roslovic is an interesting one to keep an eye on as he really seemed to fit in well with Carolina, which could make resigning with them a wise choice for both parties. On the flip side of that, Roslovic could decide to use his 39-point season as leverage to make more money on the open market. The same could be said for Eric Robinson who is coming off a career year and could look to cash in on that elsewhere. 

Unfortunately for Jesper Fast, it does appear that he will have to retire as a result of injury. He missed the entirety of this past season after having surgery on his neck and at 33-years-old, that's not an easy recovery to make.

This isn’t going to be a great answer but I could see all of Carolina’s pending free agents walking, and I could also also see them resigning. It’s really going to boil down to what the players are more interested in: cashing in on a big pay day, or sticking around with a team that has been a great fit for them. As I mentioned, the Hurricanes have the cap space to keep these guys around with appropriate raises, but after another underachieving postseason, you have to wonder if they’re even interested in running it back in that capacity. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

The biggest question facing the Carolina Hurricanes at this point is simply, does this team actually have what it takes to accomplish the ultimate goal? The Hurricanes haven’t won the Stanley Cup since Rod Brind‘Amour was the team’s captain in 2005. Twenty years later, he’s now the one behind the bench looking to get this team back to that moment of glory. However, the longer they don’t get it done, the hotter his seat gets, and the more doubt starts to creep in regarding this team’s ability to get there. 

Three Conference Finals in a span of six years is a great accomplishment, but take it from Rangers fans, continuing to fall short of the ultimate goal when the expectations are as high as they are is not a great feeling. Until they can get over that hump, there’s going to be some doubt regarding the future.

Another fact to consider is while this team has a solid core in Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Jacob Slavin, and now Seth Jarvis and Logan Stankoven, they do have some important positions being filled by guys nearing the end of their run. Jordan Staal is going to be 37-years old next season. How much does he have left in the tank? How about Taylor Hall and Freddie Andersen, who both just agreed to contract extensions with the team. The two of them are 33 and 35 respectively. I mentioned how some of their pending UFA’s could stick around, but they're all either approaching or are in the midst of their thirties as well.  

Projected Lineup

Svechnikov - Aho - Jarvis
Hall - Kotkaniemi - Blake
Martinook - Staal - Stankoven 
Carrier - Jankowski - ? 

Slavin - Walker
Nikishin - Chatfield 
Gostisbehere - Morrow 

Anderson - Kochetkov

Final Thoughts

If Orlov and Burns leave and Kochetkov doesn’t take strides to become a capable number one goaltender for this team, I’m going to have some doubts about how serious a contender they can be. There’s always been inconsistencies to Freddie Anderson’s game that are only becoming more of a concern as he gets older. This team does have some young and exciting pieces on the back end in Scott Morrow and Alexander Nikishin, but they’ll have big skates to fill if they’re going to be full time solutions next season. Overall, the core of this team is strong but the time to get it done is running out. If we’re still having these conversations in a year or two, more drastic changes could begin to take place.