Elimination Eval: Ottawa Senators

For the first time since 2017, and the first time in the Brady Tkachuk era, the Ottawa Senators found themselves back in the playoff picture. With how up-and-down the Eastern Conference race was all season long, it wasn’t a sure thing they’d finally get back there. But thanks to a strong December and some timely wins down the stretch, Ottawa was able to secure the first wild card position. By doing so, they drew the Toronto Maple Leafs as a first round opponent, setting the stage for the Battle of Ontario. 

Expectations

Any time you miss the playoffs for an extended amount of time and go through a rebuild like the Senators have, the goal is simply to get back to the postseason. This year was no exception as Ottawa certainly had their sights set on getting back there, but wouldn’t have an easy path with so many teams in the Atlantic Division in a similar situation. To help them achieve that goal, they went out and signed free agents who had been there before in Mike Amadio, veteran David Perron, and depth forward Adam Gaudette, who proved to be one of their best new additions this season.

The Senators were in good position to achieve their goal, but with competition ramping up, they knew they had to improve. They made a couple of important, big deals at the trade deadline, swapping Josh Norris for Dylan Cozens and acquiring Fabian Zetterlund from the San Jose Sharks. This helped them put together a team capable of achieving their goal and eventually clinched a playoff berth for the first time in eight years.

Series Recap

For the first time in 21 years, the Battle of Ontario took the playoff stage as the Leafs hosted the Senators in game one. Experience was definitely the factor to open the series ,as one team looked like they were ready to go and the other was simply trying to survive. To no one's surprise, the more experienced playoff team would be the one that went on to win game one 6-2, as the Senators went down in the series early. Penalties were a huge factor there, as Toronto went 3-for-6 on the power play and Senators couldn’t catch a break. 

Game two would be a huge 'put-up or shut-up' moment for the Senators, and while it wasn’t looking good for them at the start, they turned it on as the game went on. Toronto took a 2-0 lead into the first intermission, but goals from Brady Tkachuk and Adam Gaudette tied things up by the third period. This brought the game to its first overtime of the series, where Max Domi would end up the hero. It was a tough break for Ottawa, as this was a great opportunity to even the series, but still early enough for things to change. The next game however, would be a must win. 

Game three would become the low moment for Ottawa, not just because it was the game that put them at risk of being swept, but it would be the second overtime loss in a row. The teams exchanged power play goals in the second with Claude Giroux striking first for Ottawa. With the score 1-1 in the third period, Auston Matthews gave the Leafs an early third period lead but a big goal from Brady Tkachuk tied the game back up just over the midway mark of the third. For the second game in a row, the Battle of Ontario was headed to overtime. But this one would be short lived as Simon Benoit found the back of the net just 79 seconds in, putting the Leafs up 3-0.

On the brink of elimination and being swept, the Senators finally saw their high point of the series. After taking a 2-0 lead in the first, the Leafs tied the game by the second period. David Perron regained Ottawa’s lead, but Oliver Ekman-Larsson soon tied it up to give this series its third consecutive overtime—a high stakes environment to say the least as Ottawa was fighting for their lives and the Leafs were looking for a chance to win another playoff series, this time in dominant fashion. Jake Sanderson saved the Senators as he would be the overtime hero to extend the series.

Back to Toronto for game five, the Senators rode that high of winning game four in overtime by shutting out the Leafs and securing a massive 4-0 win on the road. Thomas Chabot and Dylan Cozens got the Senators on the board in the second and third period, and then Tim Stützle and Tkachuk picked up empty netters to seal the deal. Not only was that a huge win to keep the Senators alive again, but it put some doubt in the minds of their rivals who have a notorious history of choking in the postseason. 

The Senators would have home ice advantage for Game 6 but the Leafs wouldn’t allow the series to go back to Toronto. Auston Matthews made it a 1-0 game towards the end of the first and William Nylander made it a two goal lead early in the second. To Ottawa’s credit, they fought hard to make it a game. Goals from Tkachuk and Perron tied the game up in the third, but Max Pacioretty regained the Toronto lead, and an empty netter from Nylander sealed the deal, 4-2—both for the score of the game, and the series. 

Prediction

This was another series I had spot on. I went with the Leafs in six and, sure enough, the Senators lost the series in six games. For as unsure of a thing Toronto could be when it comes to the playoffs, they were just the far better team.

Was the Season a Success?

It’s hard to label a first round exit as a success, but seeing as the Senators haven’t made the playoffs in nearly a decade, this was definitely a step in the right direction. It was starting to get to the point where if they continued to miss the postseason, more drastic changes could take place as a result, to the point where they almost could have been heading towards a second rebuild. All things considered, they don’t have anything to hang their heads on. The Senators played hard and dragged the series to six games which should give them some extra hunger going into next season. The key factor that will truly decide whether or not this season was a success will in fact be how they take this experience into next season and if they can continue to be in playoff contention moving forward.

UFA’s/RFA’s

The Senators have quite the laundry list of players that are going to be pending UFA’s: Claude Giroux, Adam Gaudette, Nick Cousins, Matthew Highmore, Travis Hamonic, Denis Gilbert, Anton Forsberg, and Haydon Hodgson. Giroux will obviously be the most crucial, but Adam Gaudette had himself a career year and could be someone the Senators look to keep around. The Senators should have the cap space to bring Giroux and Gaudette back, and still do the shopping they’ll need to this summer, but it could be cutting it close depending how the market plays out. 

They also have some notable RFA’s to worry about including Fabian Zetterlund, Tyler Kleven, and Nikolas Matinpalo. Zetterlund really seemed to thrive this season, so keeping him could be an important part of the equation moving forward. Kleven is a promising younger defenseman, and Matinpalo could be a solid six/seventh defenseman moving forward.

Biggest Question Moving Forward

The biggest question for Ottawa has to be, what are they going to do with Claude Giroux? At 37-going-on-38, it’s not a sure thing that he’s still a top line player in the league, but it’s hard to imagine this team moving forward without him. Many players on the Senators spoke about his importance to the team on break up day, most notably coming from the mouths of Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. For that reason alone, I believe the Senators will look to keep him around at least for another year, if not two. 

Beyond that, you can apply similar age concerns to Ottawa’s net, seeing as Linus Ullmark is getting up there himself. With Anton Forsberg likely hitting the open market, they could certainly benefit from a strong number two goalie that can play a large amount of games, creating more of a tandem duo to get through the regular season. They have Mads Sogaard who could potentially be that guy, but if they want more of a sure thing, they could look to sign another goalie on the open market.

Projected Lineup 

Tkachuk - Cozens - Giroux^
Zetterlund* - Stutzle - Batherson
Greig - Pinto - Amadio
Perron - ? -?

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Jensen
Kleven* - Matinpalo* 

Ullmark - ?

(*-RFAs, ^-UFAs)

Final Thoughts

Let’s assume that the lineup listed above is essentially what we’re looking at in Ottawa next season. That’s honestly a pretty good place for the Senators to be. Two solid top lines, a really good third line and with the right pieces on the fourth line, they could be in a very ideal situation up front. On the back end, they have a strong left side in Sanderson, Chabot, and Kleven. As for the right, Zub is fine. But aside from him, you kind of would like an upgrade there. Perhaps Carter Yakumchuk could be NHL ready next season but otherwise, they might benefit from an upgrade.

As long as Ullmark continues to be the type of goalie he’s shown he can be and the team around him can progress the way they did this season, the team will be in good shape to continue making strides next season.