Elimination Eval: St. Louis Blues

While you can still consider the St. Louis Blues recent champions, they were never really expected to be a constant contender type of team. Their run to the Cup in 2019 was magical and the kind of story that will be retold for years and years to come, but they weren’t expected to go the distance then and really weren’t expected to continue to be a threat moving forward. That became evident as they have only won a single playoff series since then. And, as a result, they were certainly happy to be back in the playoff picture this time around. 

Expectations

Having missed the postseason the last two years, you could certainly say that the goal for St. Louis this year was to be competitive, at least in the sense of competing for a wild card spot. Given where they were at in the standings at different points this season, it is beyond fair to label them a bit of a surprise playoff team. That’s not to discredit their accomplishments by any means, as they without question earned their place here. But that is to say there weren’t any major expectations for this team to go very far. 

The Blues didn’t make many trades of note this year besides acquiring Cam Fowler back in December, who became a really valuable addition to their blueline. In terms of roster construction this season, the real story line in St. Louis was the offer sheets to snatch Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg away from the Edmonton Oilers. These signings were incredibly effective in helping this team compete not just this year, but likely for years to come. The Blues also made some off-season moves to acquire Radek Faksa, Mathieu Joseph, Alexandre Texier, and signed veteran defenseman Ryan Suter—all of which certainly helped them have a deeper, more complete team which came in handy in reaching the postseason. 

Series Recap

Game one of this series opened the entire playoffs and was a rather exciting start to the postseason. Robert Thomas picked up the first goal of the playoffs to give the Blues the lead in the first, but back-to-back goals a minute and a half apart gave Winnipeg a 2-1 lead before Oskar Sundkvist tied it up at 2-2, as the teams headed to the first intermission. Jordan Kyrou gave the Blues another lead, but three unanswered goals from Winnipeg helped them secure a 5-3 win in game one, with Kyle Conner netting the game winner with less than two minutes to play. Some scrums broke out in the end as this was a physical game from both sides start to finish—a theme that would continue across the series as a whole. 

Game two was as close as it gets, a 1-1 game through a good portion of play as Mark Scheifele scored for Winnipeg, and recent University of Minnesota graduate Jimmy Snuggerud picked up his first career playoff goal on the power play. But it was, but it was another third period goal from Kyle Connor that was the deciding factor in a 2-1 Jets win.

I try not to make too much of these elimination evals about the Rangers, but I do need to make this one somewhat about the Rangers. Many people were hesitant and still don’t love the fact that Igor Shesterkin will be making as much money as he will beginning next year. As if there is still any doubt as to why you pay a goalie like Shesterkin, then let’s talk about Connor Hellebuyck, who many consider to be a top three goaltender in the entire league, if not the best. Hellebuyck is in constant conversation for the Vezina Trophy, an unbelievable goaltender throughout the regular season. But playoffs have become a whole different story. True star players (and goaltenders) make their money in the playoffs. Hellebuyck is a perfect example of why you pay someone like Igor Shesterkin, because say what you will about him, he’s always at the top of his game in the postseason. 

Now back to this series: a pair of goals from yet another former friend thriving in the postseason in Pavel Buchnevich gave the Blues an early two goal lead just three minutes into game three. Another one from Cam Fowler extended the lead to 3-0 before David Gustaffson answered for the Jets. But then three unanswered goals in the third period chased Hellebuyck from Winnipeg’s net—not the first time this has happened to Hellebuyck in the postseason, and it certainly would not be the last time. Eric Comrie played well, but it was too little, too late. The Blues picked up their first win of the series in dominant fashion by a score of 7-2. 

Down 2-1 in the series, winning game 4 became a game changing moment for the Blues as they fought to turn a series in which they were serious underdogs into a best of three. Winnipeg took a 1-0 lead in the first period on another Kyle Connor goal before Jake Neighbours tied the game up at one heading into first intermission. It was all Blues from there, as once again three unanswered goals in the second period from the Blues and an early third period goal from Robert Thomas sent Hellebuyck packing for the second game in a row. This gave the Blues a 5-1 win but more notably, gave Winnipeg some serious doubts about how to navigate the series moving forward. 

Aside from how this series would end, game five was the low moment for St. Louis. Had they found a way to take a lead in the series, they could still be going strong as we speak. However, Kyle Connor put Winnipeg on the board just 83 seconds in game give. Nathan Walker quickly answered, but a goal from Nino Niederreiter gave the Jets the lead back, sending the Blues into the first intermission trailing 2-1. Jimmy Snuggerud added another big goal to tie it up in the second, but three unanswered goals from Winnipeg put this one out of reach. Walker picked up his second of the night with less than a minute to go in the game but it wasn’t enough as the Blues lost 5-3. 

With the series on the line, it was some unlikely heroes who did the goalscoring to keep the Blues alive in game six. Philip Broberg picked up his first of the postseason about six minutes in the first, but Cole Perfetti tied it for the Jets early in the second. The goals continued to come in bunches with four unanswered from St. Louis, chasing Hellebuyck out of the net for the third game of the series after making just four saves in that second period. The Blues 5-2 victor would force a game seven. 

In game seven, the Blues were literal seconds away from upsetting the Presidents Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets, leading 3-2 as time was winding down. With just three seconds left, Cole Perfetti picked up his second goal of the night, causing an absolute eruption in Manitoba and sending game seven into overtime. With less than five minutes in the second overtime it was Winnipeg’s captain Adam Lowry who emerged as the hero, saving the Jets season and sending them on to the second round.

Much credit to St. Louis, they had a heck of a run just to get back to the playoffs, but also gave the Presidents’ Trophy winners a real run for their money in the opening round. They have nothing to hang their heads on as they made some real progress this year. 

Prediction 

Winnipeg is my Stanley Cup pick for this year so I am quite relieved they didn’t blow it in the first round. I had them taking the series in six games as I wasn’t expecting the Blues to give them as much trouble as they did. 

Was the Season a Success? 

Given that the Blues have missed the playoffs the last two seasons, I’d certainly label making the playoffs and pushing a team like Winnipeg to seven games a success. I mentioned before how the Blues weren’t really expected to be a dynasty type of team, but that’s not to suggest they were satisfied with being a team recently on the outside looking in. They never were in a position to consider a full rebuild in the post 2019 years but they did need a bit of retooling and that’s what helped get them back to the dance this year. 

In addition to making the playoffs, the Blues have made a ton of wise decisions in terms of roster construction to set this team up for a bright future. On top of some of those moves they made in the off-season, they have plenty of young talent, some of which began to make strides this year in Jimmy Snuggerud and Zac Bolduc. Beyond that, they have Otto Stennberg, Dalibor Dvorský, Adam Jiricek, Theo Lindstein, and many others that can make the jump to the NHL sooner rather than later. All things considered, I’d say the future is bright in St. Louis and they could continue to make strides as soon as next season.  

UFA’s/RFA’s

The Blues aren’t going to have to worry about losing players to the open market as Radek Faksa and Ryan Suter are their only two pending UFA’s. Suter is going to be 41 next winter so I wouldn’t expect him to be back with St. Louis, if he's back in the NHL at all. Faksa is a great role player to have in your bottom-six but will likely cash in on on the open market instead of returning to St. Louis. The Blues only RFA is their backup goaltender in Joel Hofer who shouldn’t cost much to stick around as a 1B to Jordan Binnington. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

Defense is definitely my biggest concern when I take a look at this St. Louis team, so finding a way to rebuild their aging D-core is going to be their biggest question moving forward. I like Colton Parayko a lot but even he’s starting to get up there in age and isn’t the player he once was.

Outside of Philip Broberg and depth guys like Tyler Tucker and Matt Kessel, the Blues don’t have a single defenseman younger than Paryako, who is 32. Cam Fowler is 33 and entering the last year of his contract. Justin Faulk is 33 with two years still to go and is far from what he once was. Nick Leddy’s in the same boat as Fowler, but a year older. And Torey Krug may never play hockey again. If they want to maintain their status as a playoff team in the West moving forward, the Blues need to reconfigure their defense. They have some prospects that could make their way there but with any cap space the Blues have this summer, I would definitely be looking to get younger on the back end.

Projected Lineup

Buchnevich - Thomas - Kyrou 
Holloway - Schenn - Snuggerud 
Neighbours - Bolduc - Joseph 
Walker - Sundqvist - Toropchenko
Texier

Fowler - Parayko
Broberg - Faulk
Leddy - Kessel
Tucker

Binnington - Hofer*

(*-RFAs)

Final Thoughts

The Blues certainly have some question marks on the back end, but in all other areas, they are in a pretty good place. That top line of Buchnevich-Thomas-Kyrou is a great first line. They have a great mix of experience, young players, and guys in their prime up and down their forward lines. They’re very solid in net with a tandem of Binnington and Hofer. It’s no secret how streaky Binnington can be, but when he’s on, he’s on, and he often is when it matters most. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if the Blues continue to make progress next season and are right back there in the playoff picture once again.