Elimination Eval: Toronto Maple Leafs

Death, taxes, and the Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leaf-ing in the playoffs. The fact of the matter is, this was the most successful postseason the Leafs have had in decades, yet no Leafs fan is going to come out of it feeling good or with a ton of optimism. This team took care of business against their cross province rivals from Ottawa in round one, got off to a fantastic start in round two, taking a 2-0 lead in the series, yet still found a way to let the series get away from them and blew yet another a massively important game seven. Where oh where do they go from here? Well, let’s get into it.

Expectations

The expectations for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season were massive. This is a team that finally moved on from general manager Kyle Dubas and head coach Sheldon Keefe, brought in a recent Stanley Cup-winning coach who runs a no-nonsense type of ship inCraig Berube, and made seemingly all the right moves at the trade deadline and throughout the season. For a team that only recently was able to sniff the second round, the goal was to finally go beyond that and have a serious, lengthy run at Lord Stanley’s hardware. With the roster they had, it seemed like they were finally ready to do so. 

The Leafs began to show they meant business last offseason when they went out and signed Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to significant contracts, really revamping their defense. Ekman-Larsson was fresh off a Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers, and Tanev held plenty of experience as a reliable stay-at-home defenseman, which was a serious need for this Leafs team. They also brought in two recent Cup winners with Florida in Anthony Stolarz, who made for a strong goalie duo with Joseph Woll, and center Steven Lorentz. Lastly, they made what became a really valuable signing in seasoned veteran winger Max Pacioretty.  

In addition to a notable off-season, the Leafs spent big at the trade line to acquire Brandon Carlo to add to their blue line, as well as Scott Laughton who plays a style of hockey the Leafs were looking for. Both players came with great resumes of experience, with Carlo’s including a Stanley Cup in Boston. With the team well stocked in the final stretch of the season, it really felt like they were in a position to make some serious noise in the postseason. 

Playoff Recap

Right from the start, the Leafs looked like they were ready to put the past behind them. With the Battle of Ontario taking the playoff stage for the first time in over two decades, the Leafs used experience to their advantage as they walked all over an Ottawa Senators team that hadn’t been in the postseason in close to a decade.

The Leafs once again got off to a dominant start in round two. Just 33 seconds into game one, William Nylander put his team on the board and picked up a second goal later in the period to make it 2-0. Seth Jones converted on the power play for Florida late in the period, but within the next minute it was Morgan Rielly finding the back of the net to extend Toronto’s lead 3-1. Chris Tanev added to that lead in the second to put the Panthers down by three heading into the final frame. Despite a big push from Florida, it was a goal from Matthew Knies that went on to be the game winner as the Leafs secured a big 5-4 win to take an early lead in the series. 

On paper, everything went well for the Leafs in that opening game, but there was one major concern that came out of it. In the second period, Sam Bennett went hard to the net and ended up colliding with his former teammate, Anthony Stolarz. Call it an accident, call it accidentally-on-purpose, whatever it was, it should have at the very least been a penalty in the moment. Instead, it went uncalled, and Bennett was not disciplined to any extent, and Stolarz would remain out for the series. 

Game two would be the high moment for Toronto as they were able to build on that strong game one performance to take a 2-0 lead in the series. The Panthers struck first as Aleksander Barkov found the back of the net on a power play near the midway point of the first. A Leafs power play goal from Max Pacioretty sent the game into the first intermission tied at one. Brad Marchand, who always shows up against the Leafs, regained the Panthers lead just 15 seconds into the second, but a pair of goals from Nylander and Domi made it a 3-2 game heading into the third. 

Anton Lundell tied the game five minutes in but a quick response from Mitch Marner regained the Leafs' lead that stuck to the final buzzer. Justin Woll, who took over netminding duties for the series with Stolarz out, had a strong opening game that kept the Leafs confident in their abilities to compete.

Game three, however, would be the game changing moment of the series. The Leafs were up 3-1 in the early parts of the second period before three unanswered goals from the Panthers drastically changed not just the outcome of this game, but the series, as well. As the game was forced to overtime, it was bound to be a crucial moment in the series. A goal one way would threaten a sweep while a goal the other could really turn things around, giving the Panthers a chance at a comeback. Low and behold, in the final five minutes of overtime, it was Brad Marchand deflecting a puck in to give Florida their first win of the series. 

The Leafs needed a bounce back in game four. Instead, they were held scoreless, as goals from Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett were enough to give Florida a 2-0 win that tied the series up at two apiece. At this point in the series, the home team was the winner in each of the four contests. Game four could certainly be labeled a goalie duel, as Sergei Bobrovsky came out of it with a 2-0 shutout win, while Joseph Woll was strong, doing everything he could to give his team a chance, making 35 saves in the process. All of a sudden, it was a best of three series. 

Game five was by far the low point for the Leafs—well, at least initially. Despite giving up a goal to Aaron Ekblad late in the first, there was a sense that the Leafs still had a chance in this one. That was until the Panthers scored three goals in eight minutes of the second period to make it a 4-0 game. Toronto would give up another pair of goals in the third before Nick Robertson picked up a garbage time goal to spoil what would have been Bobrovsky’s second shutout in a row. When you can't score for well over six periods of hockey, it’s safe to say there's a larger problem at hand.

Facing elimination in game six, the Leafs were able to rally. After two more scoreless periods of hockey, the Leafs finally beat Bobrovsky as Auston Matthews picked up his third of the postseason. Pacioretty gave the team some insurance as he picked up his third of the playoffs in a 2-0 Leafs victory.

Riding that momentum info game seven would be imperative if the Leafs wanted to move past the second round. But instead, we saw a repeat of game five. 

After a scoreless first period, Seth Jones once again got the party started in the second and before you knew it, it was 3-0 Florida. An early third period goal from Max Domi game the Leafs some life, but Eetu Luostarinen quited the Toronto crowd again only 47 seconds later, extending the Florida lead to 4-1. The Panthers wouldn't look back, adding two more goals to take the game 6-1 and the series 4-3. 

There’s no other way to slice it: it was just an incredibly disappointing way for the Leafs to go out. Again. 

Prediction 

I should have known better but, alas, the Leafs were my pick for the Eastern Conference Champions. I thought this was the year they finally gave it a serious run. And, on the one hand, they were one of five teams left in the race. But on the other, they still couldn’t get past the second round. 

Was the Season a Success? 

Again, it’s kind of crazy to suggest this season was a shortcoming or a failure for the Leafs on account of the fact that this is the longest postseason they’ve had in so many years. But you have to consider it a failure. This was a make-or-break year for Mitch Marner, who along with Auston Matthews and William Nylander are all in their prime. They made all the right moves, at least in theory, over the summer and at the trade deadline to put this team in the best possible situation to go on an extended playoff run. Is their lack of success more of a Toronto issue or is it just the fact that Florida is really good? It’s definitely a bit of both, but the Leafs can only be concerned with their efforts and they fell short of expectations yet again. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

The Leafs don’t have a ton of pending UFAs, but boy do they have some of the biggest names in all of free agency in Mitch Marner and John Tavares. I don’t think there’s a world in which Marner continues his NHL career as a Toronto Maple Leaf and, honestly, I don’t blame him if he decides to move on. He’s a Toronto kid, grew up a Leafs fan but the relationship is clearly tarnished and the things he’s had to deal with across his tenure more than justifies wanting a change of scenery. Not to mention, the Leafs just cannot afford to have three players making over $11 million a year, especially when they’re going on a decade of a lack of playoff success. 

As for Tavares, I wouldn’t be surprised if they work out a shorter term extension for less money than he’s currently making. At the same time, the Leafs could be wise to just go for a clean break and let him hit the open market. Both players would be financially smart to become UFA’s, as there are plenty of teams that will have interest in throwing blank checks their way. It will be interesting to see where they end up. Tavares has lots of suitors and Marner would be perfect for a smaller market team like San Jose, or maybe even Utah, looking to make a splash. 

Aside from that duo, the Leafs also have Max Pacioretty, Steven Lorentz, and Jani Hakanpaa as pending UFA’s.—all three of which will likely move on. Pacioretty is already hinting at a possible retirement, Hakanpaa dealt with injury and barely played all season, and Lorentz can probably make more money on the open market. As for RFA’s, Matthew Knies will surely be the priority this off-season as Toronto needs to get him signed to an extension. Nicholas Robertson and Pontus Holmberg are also in need of a new contract, but I could definitely see Robertson being trade bait. Holmberg might be able to sign a lower costing extension but after the season this organization had, I don’t see a reason to keep anything that isn’t tied down. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

Go ahead and flip a coin—Marner is heads, Tavares is tails—and however the coin lands, that’s the Leafs’ biggest question moving forward. In all seriousness, I don’t see Marner back with this team next year. I can see Tavares back, but is that really even a priority at this point? This Leafs team is in a similar position as the Rangers where major changes need to take place after a disappointing outcome. The question is, just what exactly are those changes and how many things are subject to change? 

If you let Marner and potentially Tavares walk, you need to completely reinvent your second line. You have a bunch of filler options in Domi, Laughton, Bobby McMann, Calle Jarnkrok, and whoever else remains, but those are some serious holes in your lineup left by those two. Whether or not they’re content on the back end, this team is pretty much stuck with the same D-core next season. Rielly, McCabe, Tanev, Carlo, and Ekman-Larsson all have varying levels of trade protection and the ones that make the most sense to move on from have the most protection. They’ll have some cap space to fill in the holes but with a weak free agent market and not a ton of options on the trade route, Brad Treliving will certainly have his work cut out for him.  

Projected Lineup

Knies* - Matthews - Nylander 
Domi - ? - ? 
McMann - Laughton - Jarnkrok
Holmberg* - ? -  Kampf 

Rielly - Carlo
McCabe - Tanev
Benoit - OEL 

Stolarz - Woll 

(*-RFAs)

Final Thoughts

It will be fascinating to see how the offseason plays out in Toronto, but I would expect to see this team back as a locked-in playoff team in the Atlantic Division, or wildcard team at the absolute least. Even if Marner and Tavares move on, you still have Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and a solid, experienced D-core. Matthew Knies is only going to get better and more impactful, they have a good goalie duo, if they can just retool their middle-six and solidify a Berube-minded identity in the bottom-six, they just might find themselves right back here next year giving Florida another run for their money.