Elimination Eval: Washington Capitals

For the first time since they last won the Stanley Cup in 2018, the Washington Capitals won a playoff round. For the four seasons that followed the franchise's first ever championship, the Capitals beat a hasty a first round exit. After missing the playoffs completely in 2023, they found their way back in as a wild card team in 2024, but were swept by the New York Rangers. Ah, simpler times. Without question, the Capitals followed up those efforts with one of their best seasons in recent memory and certainly their most fun. 

Expectations

The Capitals absolutely exceeded expectations this season. After being a team that was just happy to be in the playoff picture last year, the goal for this season was to remain in that wild card conversation, make the playoffs again, and be more competitive than they were the year prior. They went above and beyond that seeing as they were the top team in the Eastern Conference and made it as far as the Conference Semifinals. What this Washington team has been able to do through what is the beginning of a transitional era for the franchise has been quite impressive. Up to this point, they have shown plenty of signs that they are capable of avoiding a full rebuild and just needed some retooling in order to become competitive once again. 

In preparation for this season, the Capitals made a handful of signings that really helped them throughout the year. To fill in the edges, they brought on Brandon Duhaime and Taylor Raddysh, who became valuable depth forwards all throughout the regular season and playoffs. Their big splash in free agency was former Los Angeles Kings defenseman Matt Roy, who they signed to a rather significant six-year deal. At the time, it seemed like a bit of an overpayment but he really helped them fill out their core of defense, fitting in well alongside Rasmus Sandin. 

It was really the trades Washington was able to pull off that helped them retool so quickly. The Jakob Chychrun trade was an absolute steal. To this day, I still don’t understand how there weren’t any teams with better offers or how Nick Jensen and a 3rd round pick was all it took. However, it really started with the Logan Thompson trade which only cost them a pair of 3rd round draft picks. With Charlie Lindgren already there, the Capitals have established both a strong and incredibly unique goaltending duo with two right-handed catching netminders. And this was all before the season even started as they would bring back Lars Eller and acquire Anthony Beauvillier at the trade deadline who really helped them out down the stretch and in the playoffs. 

Playoff Recap

The Capitals essentially took on the Capitals of last season in the first round, as the Montreal Canadiens were this year’s “happy to be here” playoff team. The Capitals knocked off the Habs in five games and bought themselves some time to rest up before the start of round two, where they would run into the Carolina Hurricanes. 

Now before breaking down this series, I have to say that this series very easily wins the award for most boring series of the entire postseason. That’s not to discredit either of these teams, but Carolina just plays a very boring style of hockey to begin with and Washington didn’t have much to match that. A series is never really decided in game one, but looking back, it’s hard not to wonder how different things could have been if the puck went the other way in that series opening overtime. 

Aleksei Protas got the scoring going in this series early in the second period. For the rest of the second and through half of the third, that stood as the only goal before Logan Stankoven tied the game, forcing it to an eventual overtime. Carolina held Washington to just 14 shots on goal through three periods of hockey plus overtime. Dylan Strome was quoted in the post-game suggesting they let the Hurricanes dictate play, which is a pretty accurate description of how game one and most of the rest of the series went. Jaccob Slavin ended up finding the back of the net on a bit of a flukey shot from the point just a couple of minutes into overtime.

Game two would be the high moment for the Capitals as Connor McMichael gave them the lead in the second period after another scoreless opening frame. John Carlson converted on an early power play in the third to extend the lead, but another power play goal from a defenseman, this time by Shayne Gostisbehere, brought Carolina within one. The score stayed 2-1 until the final minute of play where Tom Wilson, who had a noticeably strong game, picked up an empty netter to tie the series up at one. The Capitals looked a lot better in this one and for a brief moment, looked like maybe they could give Carolina a run for their money. 

With the series tied, game three came as an opportunity for Washington to build off momentum and turn this series in their favor. But instead, it became the low point of the series. After the third consecutive scoreless first period, Andrei Svechnikov put Carolina on the board and a power play goal from Jack Roslovic made it 2-0 by the end of the second. Two more goals from Carolina and a strong showing from Frederik Andersen solidified game three by a score of 4-0. Despite being credited with 21 shots on goal throughout that game, the Capitals could only muster 10 through the last two periods of play.   

Following game four, Washington’s head coach Spencer Carbery mentioned how his team has a tendency to struggle when they fall behind. He was proven correct, as the Capitals wouldn’t lead again at any point in the series, let alone win another game. Midway through the first, Gostisbehere scored for Carolina and Seth Jarvis extended the lead just 65 seconds into the second. Jakob Chychrun was able to bring the Caps within one early in the third ,but Taylor Hall extended the Carolina lead again minutes later. Ovechkin had an answer for that one, but two unanswered goals from Carolina put this one out of reach for good to put Washington on the brink of elimination. 

The Capitals came out strong as any team facing elimination would, but Carolina would strike first as Jordan Staal gave them a 1-0 lead. Anthony Beauvillier had a quick answer for Washington but a goal late in the third from Svechnikov took the wind out of their sails. An empty netter from Seth Jarvis came as the final dagger as the Capitals would be going home after five games in the second round. 

Prediction 

Montreal was another bold prediction of mine in round one so I didn’t have Washington making it this far. But similarly to Vegas, they only went on to win one game in the second round, so they didn’t exceed my expectations by much.

Was the Season a Success? 

The short answer to this question is, absolutely. At best, I feel that people were expecting Washington to maybe be a wild card team again, but to win the Eastern Conference? No one saw that coming. I said this so many times throughout the season: the Capitals were having the most fun throughout the regular season. The whole “Gr8 Chase” by Ovechkin for Wayne Gretzky's goal scoring record that went on for most of the season, with the record-breaking goal finally coming in match-up on with the New York Islanders in March itself made the season a success for the Capitals and their fan base. Everything else that followed was just a bonus. 

My best friend is a Capitals fan and was able to get tickets to that game on Long Island mere seconds after Ovechkin scored goal 893. A wise decision seeing as the ticket prices skyrocketed after Ovechkin scored 894 in that same game. An absolute once in a lifetime moment for all hockey fans that was extra special for Capitals fans, he described the experience as:

“A moment of pure joy and emotion.. Easily the best hockey moment I’ll ever witness in person. Watching the celebration and mini ceremony they had after the goal was incredibly special and left us feeling so happy for Ovi and his family. Such an unforgettable experience.” - Dan C.

Ovechkin wasn’t the sole reason for the Capitals successful year, but the season he had this late in his career, especially while dealing with a broken femur, breaking the biggest all time record in the whole sport, undoubtedly played a huge part in the overall outcome of Washington’s season. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

The Capitals have a hearty list of pending UFA’s, some of which are pretty notable names, but don’t come as too much of a concern. For starters, Niklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie were long shots to continue their playing careers at the NHL level anyway, let alone likely to re-sign with Washington. Rumors have already begun to circulate that Backstrom might return to Sweden to try and keep playing and it’s a safe assumption that Oshie will retire as a result of injuries. They’ve both been a big part of Washington’s identity for quite some time—Backstrom more so than Oshie—but either way, the team has already begun to sort of shift away from that core.  

Beyond those two, the Capitals are also at risk of losing Andrew Mangiapagne, Lars Eller, Anthony Beauvillier, Taylor Raddysh, and Ethan Bear. If the price is right, maybe you keep one of Mangiapane or Beauvillier, and perhaps Raddysh as well. But at the same time, you can replenish those roles on the open market. As for Lars Eller, I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves on. The same can be said for Ethan Bear, seeing as Washington is pretty well stocked on the back end. As for RFA’s, they only really have Alexander Alexeyev to worry about who should be able to resign for an affordable price. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

There’s surely more interesting questions you can think up in regards to this Washington team, but how can the future of Alex Ovechkin not be the biggest question moving forward? We already know he will play next season, but that is the final year of his contract he signed with the end of his career in mind. I remember back when he signed it there was talk that he and Nik Backstrom sat down and did the math to see how long he would need to play for to break the all-time goals record and signed an extension accordingly. The fact that he did it a year early is insane but the idea of an Ovechkin-less Washington is even more insane. 

Will next season be Ovi’s final year? Will he stick around beyond that or will he go spend some time playing back in Russia? This team will look a lot different without him as it’s impossible for it not to, but what exactly will the next era of Washington hockey look like without him? I do feel as though the Capitals are in a good position and set up for long term success with the amount of young talent they have, some of which are already making an impact. Nonetheless, there is going to be a huge void on the left wing if this does in fact become Ovechkin’s final run and what they do to attempt to fill it will be imperative for their future success. 

Projected Lineup

Ovechkin - Strome - Wilson
Protas - Dubois - Leonard
? - McMichael - ?
Duhaime - Dowd - Frank

Sandin - Carlson
Chychrun - Roy
Fehravary - van Riemsdyk
Alexeyev* - McIlrath 

Thompson - Lindgren

(*-RFAs)

Final Thoughts

In most cases, simply suggesting a team to run it back next year never feels productive. But looking at that projected lineup, the Capitals have a solid foundation to run it back next season. If they let all of their pending UFA’s walk, they’re going to have to fill in some holes in their middle six, but they have a solid fourth line, a solid D-core, a great goalie tandem, and a strong top-six forward group. Beyond that, the Capitals have some exciting prospects in Andrew Cristall, Ivan Miroshnichenko, Terik Parascak, Zac Funk, Hendrix Lapierre, Ilya Protas, and Ryan Chesley, among others. They’ll have some cap space to work with in the summer and if spent wisely with consideration to everything else, they’ll have much higher expectations heading into next season.