Elimination Eval: Winnipeg Jets

We as New York Rangers fans know all too well the pressures and stresses surrounding the storied curse of the Presidents’ Trophy. The players only ever dream of winning one trophy their entire lives, and that’s the Stanley Cup. Aside from the security of home ice advantage across the entire playoff run, there isn’t any real perk that comes with winning the Presidents’ Trophy as the best regular season team. Maybe there should be, or maybe there shouldn’t, but the fact of the matter is, no one wants to see a banner hanging in celebration for a strong regular season. The only thing that matters is the real thing and for the 12th season in a row, the Presidents’ Trophy winning team went on to be eliminated from Stanley Cup contention. 

Expectations

When you're the best regular season team and secure that (infamous?) Presidents’ Trophy, there are two sides of the expectation coin. You’re either expected to go the distance, or you’re expected to choke at some point along the way and fall short of the ultimate goal. Well unfortunately for me and my bracket, the Jets took the latter route and were eliminated much earlier than they were likely expecting. After two years of being a first round exit, there's no doubt the goal for Winnipeg was to progress beyond that but given the regular season success they had this year, the goal for them was to go on a long run.

The Jets weren’t particularly busy on the open market last summer as they really only made a handful of depth signings. They signed defenseman Colin Miller to a two-year deal, they brought back Eric Comrie to backup Connor Hellebuyck, they signed Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Haydn Fleury, and a few other minor leaguers, and that was about it. They also didn’t make any massive splashes at the trade deadline as they only brought in Luke Schenn and Brandon Tanev for two second round picks and a fourth round pick. 

Playoff Recap

What we saw from Winnipeg in round one should have been an indication that they weren’t going to be in for a long playoff run. If there was any team in the West that was simply just happy to be there, it was the St. Louis Blues. They weren’t expected to be a playoff team and really only got to the postseason as a result of a strong run in the second half of the season mixed with teams like Calgary and Vancouver sort of collapsing on themselves. On paper, the Jets should have taken care of the Blues with ease. Instead, they went to a game seven that was decided in double overtime. 

Winnipeg would host the Dallas Stars in the Conference Semifinals and, despite goals from Nino Niederreiter and Mark Scheifele, who was back from his first round injury, it was a natural hat-trick from Mikko Rantanen that left this one just out of reach for the Jets in game one. Winnipeg head coach and former friend Scott Arniel was pretty blunt in summarizing their efforts in game one, explaining that they were aware they were giving up the home ice advantage and weren’t playing anywhere near their best hockey. Hellebuyck had 21 saves but couldn’t shut down Rantanen, who was on a roll with back-to-back postseason hat-tricks. 

Game two was likely the high point for Winnipeg’s playoff run. Another 21-save effort from Hellebuyck was enough this time to hold the Stars scoreless. Gabe Vilardi picked up his first of the postseason on a power play early in the opening period and Nikolaj Ehlers’ first came just about five minutes later to give the Jets a 2-0 lead. Adam Lowry made it 3-0 in the second, and an empty netter from Ehlers sealed the deal at 4-0 to tie the series up at one; a massive win for Winnipeg to avoid heading to Dallas down 2-0 in the series. 

You could argue the low point was either game three or four for Winnipeg, but given their standing heading into the second intermission, I’m going to give it to game three. An early power play for Dallas helped Roope Hintz put them on the board just two and a half minutes into the game. Closer to the midway point of the period, Kyle Connor answered for the Jets to tie the game up at one. While Thomas Harley was able to regain the Stars lead towards the end of the first, Nino Niederreiter knotted the game back up halfway through the second period. Tied at two heading into the third with the series tied at one game apiece, this was destined to be a big moment in the series and once again, the Jets failed to get it done. 

Three unanswered goals from Dallas, two of which coming in the span of less than a full minute, really took the wind out of the Jets’ sails. It also didn’t help that the first of those two goals required a five minute plus review to determine whether or not Alex Petrovic had clearly kicked the puck into the back of the net. Certainly a brutal blow in the series for Winnipeg but had they been able to pick up a win in game four, they would have been right back to square one. 

Alas, game five would not go their way in the slightest, as this one may as well have been called the Mikael Granlund game. Special teams played quite a role in this one as Granlund capitalized on a power play just eight and a half minutes into the game. The Jets needed a response, and luckily Ehlers had one for them as he tied the game up just 62 seconds into the second period. For the majority of the rest of that period, it could have been anyone’s game but with just over two minutes to go, Granlund decided to make it his. Granlund opted for the shot on an odd-man rush (what a concept) to pick up his second of the night and on another Dallas power play, completed the hat-trick with plenty of time left in the third. Winnipeg wasn’t able to respond and Dallas left them on the brink of elimination as the series headed back to Manitoba.

The Jets came out with the desperation needed in an elimination game and after a scoreless first, a goal from Mark Scheifele gave them a 1-0 lead they took into the second intermission of game five. Three unanswered from a combination of Vlad Namestnikov and Nikolaj Ehlers fueled the Jets to a much-needed 4-0 win. 

The story leading up to game six deserves an article in itself, so I’ll do my best to summarize it briefly here. One of the reasons we all love sports is because of those special moments. Here we all recall Marty St. Louis’ goal on Mothers Day just hours after losing his own mother as one of those moments, and that’s unfortunately something Mark Scheifele will forever be able to relate to. After unexpectedly losing his father the night prior, Scheifele would not only play in game six, but scored the first goal of the game; one of those moments that, no matter which team you root for, you were rooting for Scheifele that entire night. 

Unfortunately for Scheifele and the Jets, the magic of that opening goal wouldn’t be enough as Sam Steel tied the game and forced it to extras. Just a minute and a half into the lone overtime period, Thomas Harley found the back of the net on a shot through traffic at the point on a power play to send the Dallas Stars on to the Western Conference Final, and the Winnipeg Jets home.

Prediction 

What do I know right? The Jets were my Stanley Cup pick this year so it’s safe to say my bracket is beyond shot. Once the second round was solidified I said Jets in seven, and while they were close, it wasn’t close enough. 

Was the Season a Success? 

This is surely a more complicated question for Winnipeg than it is for most teams. What is considered a success for Winnipeg? They won the Presidents’ Trophy, were one of the most well-coached teams this season, have some truly elite talent up and down the lineup, and have one of the best goaltenders in the world. The goal was clearly to win a Stanley Cup. Save for the coaching, these are all accolades we have been giving the Jets for several years now. At what point are they just not living up to the success they should be achieving?  

With that in mind, and despite the fact that this team actually made some progress compared to years passed, this season was kind of a failure as they fell quite short of that ultimate goal. All 16 teams that make the playoffs want to achieve that ultimate goal but the Jets had as good a chance as any of the favorites heading into this postseason. They missed the playoffs in 2022 but aside from that, have been a fixture in the playoffs, year in and year out. In the last eleven years, they only missed the playoffs thrice, but at the same time, they have only won a total of four series’ across that stretch. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

Other than the Leafs, the Jets probably have the biggest name potentially hitting the open market. The Jets have several UFA’s and RFA’s, but the most notable without question is Nikolaj Ehlers, who will be an unrestricted free agent if he does not sign an extension by July 1st. Additionally, the Jets could lose Mason Appleton, Brandon Tanev, Haydn Fleury, and Dominic Toninato, as they are all pending UFA’s this year. 

It does sound like the Jets have interest in making Ehlers a Jet for life but it is unclear if the feeling is completely mutual. The Jets have plenty of cap space to make a long term extension for Ehlers work, but it’s totally possible that he can make an even larger amount of money on the open market. He is without question the priority as the Jets head into the offseason as a decision on him plays into the rest of their pending free agents. It’s hard to imagine Appleton playing anywhere other than Winnipeg, but if Ehlers signs a big money deal to stay, they may not be able or willing to pay Appleton what it would cost to keep him. There’s a high chance he, along with Tanev, will test the open market before doing the Jets any favors in terms of a new contract. As for Fleury and Toninato, I wouldn’t expect them to be back either.  

As for RFA’s, the Jets front office will have their work cut out for them with Gabe Vilardi, Morgan Barron, Dylan Samberg, and Rasmus Kupari all needing new contracts. All four are valuable players that can help Winnipeg remain competitive, but Vilardi and Samberg are for sure the bigger priority with the bigger dollar signs. Both those players could sign longer term deals for significant AAV’s as they are both going to be 26-years old this season and will soon be UFA eligible at the end of their next contract. I’d expect all four RFA’s to re-sign but the details of all of it really ride on what happens with Ehlers first. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

There are lots of questions we can ask about this Winnipeg team, but to generalize it as best I can the question is, is this it for this core? This obviously centers around the uncertainty of Nikolaj Ehlers, as moving on from him could really impact the trajectory of this franchise. When you think of Winnipeg, you think of Ehlers, and Mark Scheifele, and Kyle Connor, and even more depth type players like Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton. Well two of those five are pending UFA’s this season. Kyle Connor is a pending UFA the season after, as are Adam Lowry and Mark Scheifele the year after that. If Ehlers and Appleton walk, what should stop Winnipeg from questioning the futures of Kyle Connor and Adam Lowry? You take Ehlers out of the equation and maybe you’re better off maximizing the return of some of your top assets and begin reshaping this team that has only won four playoff rounds in the last eight years? (And in their entire history as the Winnipeg Jets reincarnated.) 

That’s certainly the more drastic approach, and probably the less realistic one. I wouldn’t be shocked if Ehlers signs an eight-year deal, they extend all of their RFA’s to longer term deals, work out Kyle Connor and Adam Lowry extension’s next season, and look to remain contenders in the Western Conference. This team has a strong core and with a few improvements and more consistency from Hellebuyck in the playoffs, this team has as good a chance as anyone to go the distance. However, the future really does start and end with Ehlers in more ways than one, so he will undoubtedly be the name to keep an eye on throughout the next month or so. 

Projected Lineup

Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi*
? - Namestnikov - Perfetti
Neidereitter - Lowry - ? 
Gustafsson - Barron* - Iafallo 
Dolan-Anderson - Kupari*

Morrissey - Demelo
Samberg - Pionk 
Stanley* - Schenn
Heinola - Miller

Hellebuyck - Comrie

(*-RFAs)

Final Thoughts

The future for Winnipeg starts and ends with their decision on Nikolaj Ehelrs. Once that’s settled, you can start to envision whether or not they’re going to ride or die with this  core and what they can do to fill in the spaces. Looking at the projected lineup, assuming they keep Ehlers, all the RFA’s and maybe even Mason Appleton, they’re in a good spot to run it back as a top team in the West. Ideally you’d like an upgrade at center, specifically for the second line, but perhaps that’s something you can target at the trade deadline if all else fails. Generally speaking, I’d expect the Jets to continue getting to the playoffs but until they can actually make significant progress, doubts are more than warranted.