Joe's Reaction of the Week: Estimated Trade Returns

Last week I gave you a list of everyone I thought was worthwhile to discuss in terms of if/when they would be traded. I tragically (and genuinely) forgot about Alexis Lafrenière, so he's going to get a double-up in this column where I'll do both. As like last week, this is all my speculation and reading of the tea leaves of where things stand.

Better Than We Thought?

Artemi Panarin – We had talked about just how difficult navigating this trade was going to be, simply because Panarin has full say over where and when he goes with a full no-movement clause. That said, it appears that Panarin is far more concerned about the bag he's to receive than the location (this is not me saying it doesn't matter where he goes) and that could give Chris Drury some more leverage here as he maneuvers through this.

A series of interested teams have bubbled up since the news went out. Los Angeles. Washington. Dallas. San Jose. To say nothing of the obvious selections of Colorado and Florida.

Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedmann reported that Drury has made it clear he wants a "Brock Nelson return" for Panarin, which would mean a top prospect, a first round pick, and a conditional third. From Friedman:

“If you’ll remember last year, Brock Nelson was traded from the Islanders to Colorado, and the trade was for Cal Ritchie, a first-rounder, and a conditional third. There were other players involved, but those were the key pieces, and it sounds like that’s where the Rangers’ starting point is with Panarin right now.”

That would be a laughable return expectation if Panarin was picking a single destination to approve a trade to, but it seems the tides may have shifted a little. Now it's been reported it's more likely than not Panarin is moved with an extension, and if Panarin is indeed more concerned about the bag than a contention window, Drury has far more leverage to get what he wants out of this.

Now, it's entirely possible none of that plays out. Reportedly Panarin and his agent have been given permission from Drury to seek an extension with interested teams as we move forward through this process. If Panain narrows that list down to a single team, all (or at least most) of the above is for naught. If a couple or more interested parties come to the table that Panarin is OK with, it opens the door for Drury to get more.

We'll see how this plays out, but no matter what the return is, some assets are better than no assets.

(All of the above was written before the Rangers elected to hold Panarin out for the game against the New York Islanders on Wednesday. All that has really changed between the above and now is I am more sure than ever that Panarin will be traded before the Olympics. I'm hearing Washington, San Jose, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Carolina are all interested enough to be out there.)