Rangers By The Numbers Game 19 Preview: Rangers vs. Flyers
Wednesday Night Rivalry! 'Gers! Flyers! What's not to like? (Aside from that sinking feeling of doom and gloom that now accompanies every Rangers game, until they get their act together).
| Time | Wednesday, 8:00 EST | TV | NBCSN |
| Season Series | 0-0 | Last Meeting | - |
| The Enemy | Broad Street Hockey | Scoring Leaders | R. Nash 12-7-19 |
Rangers | CATEGORY | Flyers |
| 7-7-4 | SEASON RECORD | 7-7-2 |
| 18 | Points | 16 |
| 10th | Conference Position | 13th |
| Lost 3 | Streak | Lost 2 |
| 2.72 (13th) | Goals For Per 60 (GF60) | 3.19 (3rd) |
| 3.00 (22nd) | Goals Against Per 60 (GA60) | 3.19 (26th) |
| 15.4 (22nd) | Power Play % | 24.6 (4th) |
| 79.7 (18th) | Penalty Kill % | 71.2 (30th) |
| 47.8 (25th) | Faceoff Win % | 50.2 (13th) |
| 11.1 (18th) | PIM / GP | 9.2 (6th) |
| 30.7 (11th) | Shots For / GP | 31.1 (9th) |
| 30.4 (20th) | Shots Against / GP | 33.2 (26th) |
Rangers | Analytics | Flyers |
| 49.0 (21st) | Score Adjusted Corsi | 47.0 (26th) |
| 49.8 (20th) | Raw 5v5 Corsi | 47.1 (26th) |
| 2.58 (7th) | 5v5 Goals For / 60 | 2.46 (11th) |
| 2.58 (21st) | 5v5 Goals Against / 60 | 2.69 (26th) |
| 0 (15th) | 5v5 Goal +/- | -2 (19th) |
| 51.18 (11th) | 5v5 OZS % | 47.12 (24th) |
| 8.73 (7th) | 5v5 Shooting % | 8.73 (7th) |
| 91.31 (20th) | 5v5 Save % | 91.81 (17th) |
| 100.0 (13th) | PDO | 100.5 (10th) |
| M. Zuccarello +5.91 M. Hunwick +3.46 | 5v5 Corsi Rel % Leaders (min 100 min) | C. Giroux +9.71 J. Voracek +9.59 |
| T. Glass -6.01 D. Girardi -4.83 | 5v5 Corsi Rel % Anchors (min 100 min) | A. MacDonald -10.10 R. Umberger -8.17 |
| R. Nash 3.75 M. St. Louis 2.43 | 5v5 Points / 60 Leaders (min 100 min) | J. Voracek 4.29 B. Schenn 2.64 |
Broad Street Saints
Broad Street Bullies #truculence is still a thing in the typical Flyers fan's mind's eye. But this team is not that. Not at all. They are rarely penalized and play a much less physical game. Less fighting majors, with only 5 on the season (NYR has 7, for comparison's sake). Their defense, including former Ranger Michael Del Zotto, who will actually appear on their top pairing tonight, is decidedly not physical around their own net nor in the corners. Not a fighter in the lineup.
This could be Tanner Glass' moment in the sun, so to speak. Maybe he picks a fight with an unwilling opponent. Maybe he runs someone away from the puck. Maybe he gets suspended. Dream a dream.
No Giroux; Plenty of Voracek
Claude Giroux will not appear tonight due to a lower body injury. He is expected to miss two games. This is an enormous boost to the Rangers chances tonight. He is a vital part of their top of the NHL powerplay (24.6%) because of his setup passing ability. He is such a skilled playmaker with time and space, working along the half-boards. It really makes that top unit, that has been so successful, go.
However, Jakub Voracek is arguably the most effective offensive weapon at 5v5 play in the NHL right now. After Columbus gave up on him, some questioned whether he would ever reach his potential. But at the age of 25, and in part because of a new nutrition plan that shed about 10 pounds of excess weight, he has increased his quickness and is maximizing his potential.
Armed with a lethal skill set that includes high speed while maintaining puck control and elite ice vision when approaching the net on rushes, he drives play and carries his teammates. That's right, Giroux doesn't necessarily drive that top line. Voracek's speed and skill do. But it will still be interesting to see how he does without Giroux, as about 95% of his TOI has been played with him. Voracek is riding a 10-game point streak, but Umberger is a drag on possession and no Giroux makes him the sole focus on that top line.
A Simple PK Fix?
This one played out on Twitter so I'll just embed the tweets as they tell the story best. Credit to our pal George Ays for bringing this up there.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Dunno if there's anything to be made of this, but I was curious: <a href="http://t.co/slQJQyL7Wx">pic.twitter.com/slQJQyL7Wx</a></p>— George E. Ays (@RangerSmurf) <a href="https://twitter.com/RangerSmurf/status/535144339471892481">November 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/PatrickKearns">@PatrickKearns</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RangerSmurf">@RangerSmurf</a> bit of chicken and egg there. So much in PK is based on lateral transitioning SAs. The hardest to save.</p>— Nick Mercadante (@nmercad) <a href="https://twitter.com/nmercad/status/535147581697847296">November 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/PatrickKearns">@PatrickKearns</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RangerSmurf">@RangerSmurf</a> if diamond/box is poor, such as Glass continually sinking into no mans land to puck watch, opens lanes for those</p>— Nick Mercadante (@nmercad) <a href="https://twitter.com/nmercad/status/535148257345671168">November 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>I do know what to make of this, however: <a href="http://t.co/YQpgGrspIx">pic.twitter.com/YQpgGrspIx</a></p>— George E. Ays (@RangerSmurf) <a href="https://twitter.com/RangerSmurf/status/535145918732197890">November 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Yup. Pretty straight-forward.
Key to the Game: Score First and Play the Rangers' Preferred Play Style.
The Flyers win 80% of the games where they score first, which is the 5th highest win rate in the NHL.
While I don't take total stock in the "scoring first makes it easier to win" mantra, the numbers do show that if you play with a lead early, you win more often than not. Let me clarify that. My point is, it won't make the Rangers necessarily play better or worse if they score first. But having a lead means you have at least a goal more than the other team. And you need to score more than the other team to win...so why not do it first?
And let's look at this from a decidedly non-statistical perspective. I do believe in the social sciences and their ability to impact performance. We all know that the Rangers are a team that is reeling. They also may play "tighter" with Cam Talbot getting the start tonight. It would do wonders for morale to get out against a team that is in a similar position, and is similarly defensively challenged, and pop in a few early ones.
The Flyers are going to be looking to do the same thing. These teams are in very similar boats right now, with key injuries and porous defense. No Hank means that the goalie battle does not fall in our favor. This could very well be an up and down shootout. Let's hope the Rangers' offense has its sea legs back.
Goalies
The chart below shows 5v5 performance. The X axis shows save percentage on high probability (slot) shots. Y axis shows for medium probability shots. Adjusted Save Percentage is denoted by color (bluer is better). An explanation of save percentage adjusting, which weights the shots by their probability level, can be found here. Size of the bubble is TOI.
Hey...it has been a rough go for the goaltenders for both teams. But as you can see from the adjusted Save Percentage, Lundqvist has basically been left out to dry on high probability shots, and is actually performing fine, generally. Defensive impact is noticeable. I don't need to tell you guys that.
Credit: war-on-ice.com
Expected Lines
Rangers: No Lee Stempniak, Fast draws in on the 4s.
Rick Nash - Derick Brassard - Mats Zuccarello
Chris Kreider - Derek Stepan - Martin St. Louis
Carl Hagelin - Kevin Hayes - Anthony Duclair
Tanner Glass - Dominic Moore - Jesper Fast
Scratched: None
Injured: Lee Stempniak (lower back), Ryan McDonagh (shoulder)
Flyers: That defense is just as bad as the Rangers. Maybe worse.
R.J. Umberger - Brayden Schenn - Jakub Voracek
Matt Read - Sean Couturier - Wayne Simmonds
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - Scott Laughton - Vincent Lecavalier
Zac Rinaldo - Chris VandeVelde - Jason Akeson
Michael Del Zotto - Braydon Coburn
Nicklas Grossmann - Mark Streit
Nick Schultz - Carlo Colaiacovo
Scratched: None
Injured: Kimmo Timonen (blood clots), Andrew MacDonald (lower body), Michael Raffl (lower body), Luke Schenn(upper body), Claude Giroux (lower body)
Usage
NYR Forwards: Underperformance and a few guys that are being questionably deployed sum up this chart.
NYR Defense: Just yuck. In considering corsi rel % (color), keep in mind that its compared against teammates when that player is not on the ice. So we are basically comparing on a spectrum of a dumpster fire to a four-alarm building fire.
The bottom line is Staal is getting all of the DZ work and toughest competition, and Moore and Hunwick are getting mostly OZ sheltered qualcomp work. But Staal isn't exactly dominating in his role. Girardi is getting tougher competition, and just getting a ton of TOI in general. He is not doing anything of real positive impact, given the deployment.
Flyers Offense: Top heavy.
Flyers Defense: MDZ has arguably been their best defenseman this season. On a decidedly negative possession team (26th in score adjusted and raw 5v5 Corsi), MDZ has driven about 50% of play in the right direction while getting tougher zone starts. Hey...all things considered, I would probably take him on NYR right now. I know...I know.
Credit: war-on-ice.com
Your Tanner Glass Moment of Zen:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Tanner Glass compares very unfavorably to other 2014 UFAs signed to a lower cap hit (some even less than half!): <a href="http://t.co/fPkvi3BOvX">pic.twitter.com/fPkvi3BOvX</a></p>— Tanner Glass Facts (@T_Glass_Facts) <a href="https://twitter.com/T_Glass_Facts/status/535069583670280192">November 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Stats compiled from: nhl.com, puckon.net, war-on-ice.com, and stats.hockeyanalysis.com