Should the Rangers Trade Down in the Draft With St. Louis?

One of the recurring questions regarding the New York Rangers as they head into the 2026 NHL Draft in possession of the fifth overall pick, is whether they should consider trading it to St. Louis in exchange for the 11th and 15th overall selections.

In addition to their own first round selection, the Blues acquired the Detroit Red Wings first round pick as part of the Justin Faulk deal at the 2026 trade deadline. As mentioned in the Podcast Ombudsman report for Ep. 69, there is a paper by Michael Shuckers that assigns value to each draft pick. Reiterated in the most recent Ombudsman Report, the fifth overall pick has a value of 741 points whereas picks 11 and 15 have a value of 535 and 433 points respectively. 

Now, Joe and Eric went on to discuss this topic further on the podcast, and I want to stress that first and foremost I agree with what Joe had to say. The Rangers should certainly speak to St. Louis about this ahead of time, but should not make a definitive decision on the matter until picks 1-4 are made on draft day. In the event that picks 1-4 are made and McKenna, Stenberg, Malhotra, and Carels have all been chosen, I’m strongly considering trading down. If any of them are still available, then you have to pick one of those names. Sure, you can make the case for Chase Reid (Roberto will be next week). And I might be crazy, but I'd be more interested in having both picks 11 and 15 over Reid.

Let’s talk about why the Rangers should consider trading down. I know the immediate reaction by many is that you don’t do it because you want the best possible player, and you’re far more likely to get a star player at five than viable NHL talent later in the draft. While that is extremely valid, there are two things worth noting. 

The first is that the projections for this draft class are all over the place. Top tier talent, including guys like Ivar Stenberg, Caleb Malhotra, Carson Carels, and Chase Reid, are falling all over the place. There are even some mock drafts that suggest Gavin McKenna falling to the Rangers at fifth overall isn’t out of the realm of possibility. While this may sound like justification for keeping the fifth overall pick, it also proves that this draft can be unpredictable, to the point where a player more than capable of becoming a star (Viggo Björck, Tynan Lawrence, Alberts Smits, among others) could fall all the way down to 11. And to get a really good player at 15 on top of it might be in the Rangers’ best interest. 

The second thing to consider is the draft class itself. I’m not entirely sure when and why this class started gaining traction as a two player draft, but that’s just not true in the slightest. There is a very real chance that high-end NHL talent is spread throughout the entirety of the first round, if not into the second. There are an abundance of intriguing and talented players who could be available in a variety of draft positions, and if there was ever a draft to stock pile picks it's without question this one. That's especially true for a team like the Rangers looking to retool versus rebuild.

With that in mind, let’s pretend the Rangers decide to make this trade ahead of the draft. The full deal is sending the fifth overall pick to St. Louis in exchange for 11th and 15th overall. What would that mean in terms of the players the Rangers come out of the first half of the draft with?

To figure that out, I did three separate mock drafts. While the individual picks in each one varied, the top ten remained some combination of McKenna, Carels, Malhtora, Reid, Stenberg, Viggo Björck, Keaton Verhoeff, Alberts Smiths, Daxon Rudolph, and Tynan Lawrence. Of those names, I’d say Tynan Lawrence and Viggo Björck have the best chances of falling to 11th overall, and the Rangers would gladly take either of them in that position. Smits could fall, too, which would also be fantastic and an easy decision at 11th overall. But really I don't see him making it past Florida in any scenario. For the sake of this exercise, let’s pretend they’re off the board.

Let’s break down each mock draft scenario: