2026 Elimination Eval: Buffalo Sabres

It’s been 15 years since the Buffalo Sabres last made the playoffs, and nearly 20 since the last time they got out of the first round. To put that into context, the last time the Sabres played a playoff game, current San Jose Sharks general manager Mike Grier was still playing for the Sabres, and current Buffalo Sabre Zach Benson was just six years old. 

The last time they won a playoff series? Current New York Rangers Chris Drury was captain of the team, alongside current Philadelphia Flyers general manager Daniel Briere. Zach Benson was just two years old then.

Needless to say, this kind of season was a long time coming and, in many ways, very overdue.

Expectations

The Sabres bad luck continued throughout last season as they finished second to last in the Atlantic Division, just three points ahead of the Boston Bruins. While any sort of progress from that would have been a step in the right direction, it’s been clear for years now that this team was due to take a big step and to finally get back in the playoff picture. When we talk about just how overdue this team was, they really didn't even make many major changes in free agency or the trade deadline.

The one big change came just before the 2025 draft as the Sabres dealt JJ Peterka to the Utah Mammoth in exchange for Michael Kesselring and Josh Doan. At the time, it did not seem like the best return for a player like Peterka, but almost a full year later, it's looking like the Sabres may have actually won that trade. Outside of that and acquiring Connor Timmins, Buffalo mainly focused on getting their own RFAs signed to new deals, and the only new additions to the team in free agency were Justin Danforth and Alex Lyon.

While Danforth was injured down the stretch, Lyon turned into a critically important signing for the Sabres, as he played a huge role in several of those big wins that got his team as far as they got. When it came to the trade deadline, the Sabres pulled off three trades. They picked up Sam Carrick from the Rangers for a third and sixth round pick, pulled off a bigger trade to land defensemen Luke Schenn and Logan Stanley, and picked up Tanner Pearson for a seventh round pick, both from the Winnipeg Jets.

The trade Schenn-Stanley trade with Winnipeg cost them a bit, giving up Isak Rosen, Jacob Bryson, a second, and fourth round pick, all for two pending UFA defensemen. But the experience Schenn brought, along with the size and depth provided by Stanley, made it a logical move for a team looking to go on a run. 

Series Recap

Game 1 of the playoffs was everything you wanted it to be if you were a Sabres fan, or just a hockey fan tuning in for the excitement of a team's first home playoff game in over a decade. While the Boston Bruins got off to the better start on the scoreboard leading 2-0 early in the third, there wasn’t a second of this game where it felt like Buffalo wasn’t the better team. You just knew from the moment the game started they were going to come out of this one with a win, and sure enough four unanswered goals from Tage Thompson, Mattias Samuelsson, and an empty netter from Alex Tuch put this one away for Buffalo to take a 1-0 lead in the series. 

Boston got off to the better start in Game 2 with four unanswered goals of their own to establish a 4-0 lead just 16 seconds into the third period. Buffalo goals from Bowen Byram and Peyton Krebs threatened a comeback, but the Sabres came up short and the series was tied at one heading back to Boston. While the Bruins would open the scoring for the third game in a row, it wasn’t long before Buffalo took over. Byram, Tuch, and Noah Ostlund all scored to secure a 3-1 win and regain the series lead. It went down as a big win, but Game 4 was the statement game for the Sabres. 

Four goals within the first 14 minutes of play absolutely silenced the crowd in Boston. It was the Sabres young core leading the way as both Josh Doan and Zach Benson picked up their first career playoff goals to help put things out of reach early. Goals from Beck Malenstyn and Tuch poured salt in the wound early in the third as Alex Lyon was 40 seconds away from a shutout that was spoiled by Sean Kuraly. The Sabres would head back to Buffalo with a 3-1 series lead. 

While an overtime game winner from David Pastrnak forced the series back to Boston for Game 6, but the Sabres took care of business on the road. Another big goal from Samuelsson and an insurance marker from Benson gave their team the lead and put an end to the series.

The Sabres shook the slow start trend from round 1 as it only took Doan four and a half minutes to give his team the lead in Game 1 against Montreal. Special teams became a factor quickly in this one, as power play goals from Ryan McLeod and Byram helped them maintain the lead throughout the outing which finished 4-2 in Buffalo’s favor. Of course Montreal was quick to answer with a pair of wins in Games 2 and 3, as Alex Newhook especially was standing out as an important player for the Canadiens with four goals across the two games. 

Game 4 would be the game changing moment for the Sabres, as momentum was certainly in Montreal’s favor. Once again it was Mattias Samuelsson scoring a big goal to establish an early lead. While Newhook and Cole Caufield gave Montreal a lead of their own, power play goals from Thompson and Benson—who became the hero on a memorable 21st birthday—regained the lead to tie up the series. 

Chaotic starts became the theme of Game 5 and 6, as both games saw five goal opening periods to set the tone. Despite Buffalo taking a 3-2 lead into the first intermission, Game 5 became their low moment, save for the obvious one that ended their season. Four unanswered goals from Montreal—two of which on the power play—took control of this one as they won 6-3 and threatened the series which was headed back to Buffalo.

The Sabres wouldn’t go down without a fight, especially on home ice. Rasmus Dahlin did what all captains should do in big games and lead by example. Opening the scoring just 32 seconds in, Dahlin’s goal gave the Sabres a lead, but it wasn’t long before Montreal was back up. Three goals in nine minutes shifted momentum, but the Sabres were there to respond with back-to-back three goal periods. The power play remained a factor as four of their next seven goals came with the man advantage. Rookie Konsta Helenius was making a name for himself with his second goal in just as many games and former Quinnipiac Bobcat Zach Metsa picked up goal number eight for his first career playoff goal, finalizing an 8-3 win, which brought every hockey fan's favorite words: Game 7. 

It didn’t look good for Buffalo from the start, but they’ve been used to coming from behind all postseason long. After a slow start from both sides, Philip Danault gave Montreal the lead and Zack Bolduc—who I’ll never forgive the Rangers for passing up on to draft Brennan Othmann—extended the lead to 2-0. For the longest time, it felt like Buffalo was running out of magic. That was until a dominant second period resulted in what seemed like another massive goal from Samuelsson. However upon review, the puck hit Jordan Greenway on its way in. The captain tied it early in the third period and for a brief moment in time, it looked like the Sabres were in a position to win the game.

I’ll preface this by saying if this sequence of events happened to the Rangers, I’d be in a mental hospital by the next morning. A shot from the point was stopped by Jakub Dobes as the rebound was poked ahead by Greenway. Wes McCauley was either way too quick with the whistle or just lost sight of the puck—unaware it was still in motion—and blew the whistle just as Malenstyn had gotten his stick on the loose puck to put it in. Look, I get it, rules are rules and the officials have a difficult job—especially in a Game 7. But that should have been a goal, no question. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the game went to overtime and it was Alex Newhook picking up his seventh of the postseason, second series-winning goal. 

Prediction

It was just Eric and I that believed in the Sabres from the start. While I can’t speak for Eric, I did have the Sabres making it to the second round in my bracket and losing to the Montreal Canadiens so their end result aligned perfectly with my expectations for them. The problem is, when you’re a hot team and you’re finding ways to win, with your fan base behind you, and it all comes down to one game, you have no reason to believe you can’t win it all. This late in the postseason, the hope in that room was surely that they would at least get to the Conference Finals and see what happens but all things considered, you have to think the Sabres are proud of their accomplishments this season. 

Was the Season a Success?

A long overdue success, but a success nonetheless. Making the playoffs was the ultimate goal, finishing at the top of the Atlantic was a bit of an overachievement in terms of what was expected of them. All in all, they were one bounce (or missed call) away from getting to the Conference Final, that's a massive step and will increase expectations heading into next season as they look to get back there.

UFAs/RFAs

The Sabres largest offseason priority will absolutely be getting pending RFA Zach Benson signed to a long term deal. This is a player I’ve been a big fan of since his draft class and has certainly proved himself to not only be a key part of Buffalo’s future, but an absolute gamer when it comes to the playoffs. Aside from him, the Sabres just have Peyton Krebs, Michael Kesselring, and former friend Zac Jones as pending RFAs. Kesselring will be an interesting name to keep an eye on as he only got into one postseason game and had just two assists in 34 games played throughout the regular season. A large part of his limitations were a result of injury, but you still have to wonder if he has a place on this team moving forward. 

As for the UFAs, all the attention will fall on Alex Tuch, but the list certainly doesn’t end there. Beck Malenstyn is a name in particular that would be a perfect fourth line center for the Rangers in the event he hits the open market. In addition to those two, Luke Schenn, Logan Stanley, Josh Dunne, Tanner Pearson, and former friend Jake Leschyshyn will all be up for grabs on July 1, barring any extensions. A large part of me felt like Tuch would resign regardless of any outcome, but when you look at this team's projected lineup below and consider the rise of guys like Doan, Quinn, Helenius, and of course, Benson, you really have to wonder if he’s worth breaking the bank over. Of course Tuch could be happy enough to take a significant discount that the Sabres wouldn’t say no to. Either way, it will be a big story to watch this summer. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

That brings us to the subject of Buffalo’s biggest question this summer. It’s hard to suggest anything other than the future of Alex Tuch as a more pressing question for them as it has league wide implications arguably as much as it affects the Sabres. Given how depleted the market is, Tuch would surely be the top UFA forward this summer and it’s not particularly close. It bears repeating that Tuch enjoys being a Sabre, is from Rochester, and would surely be open to an extension. The question becomes, can the Sabres afford him? Both in the literal sense as well as what extending him would mean for the roster on a bigger picture scale. 

Josh Doan is ready to be a top-six player on this team, Jack Quinn looked great in the postseason, Konsta Helenius is ready to be a player, as is Noah Ostlund. There’s only so many roster spots for forwards. Sure, if you keep Tuch maybe you shop Krebs, Zucker, or figure something else out but that would result in a cascading effect of guys being pushed down in the lineup. 

Projected Lineup 

Benson* - Norris - Thompson
Kulich - McLeod - Doan
Zucker - Helenius - Quinn
Greenway - Ostlund - Krebs*
Kozak - Carrick - Danforth

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Byram
Metsa - Timmins
?

UPL - Lyon - Ellis 

Next in line:

• Forwards: Anton Wahlberg
• Defenseman: Radim Mrtka 
• Goalies: Devin Levi 

(*-RFAs) (^-UFAs)

Final Thoughts

I mentioned this in our initial roundtable, but I’ve been singing Buffalo’s praises for year’s in the sense that I was expecting them to finally get back into the playoff picture the last couple of seasons. Needless to say, it’s nice to see them finally back there as it became evident just how passionate of a fan base they have. They were undoubtedly one of the most fun teams to watch in this postseason and gave Montreal a run for their money right until the end.

I believe this season is just the scratching of the surface in terms of what this team is capable of. Rasmus Dahlin is going to begin getting more recognition as one of the league’s top defenders, Benson and Doan are future leaders on this team, if Thompson and Norris can stay healthy, and one of their four goaltenders can establish themselves as the clear number one, this team will be in a great place for a long time to come.