2026 Elimination Eval: Edmonton Oilers

The Florida Panthers are the reigning Stanley Cup Champions. Not only have they won back-to-back Stanley Cups, but they made it to the finals the year prior to winning the first, meaning they’ve played more hockey than any other team across the last three seasons. With consideration to that, it shouldn’t be surprising that injuries and overall wear and tear got the best of them this season, resulting in them missing the playoffs altogether.

The Edmonton Oilers aren’t far behind them, as they were the team Florida beat to win the Cup last two seasons. Prior to that, the Oilers made it to the Western Conference Semifinals the year prior and the Conference Final the year before that. Couple that with 4 Nations Face-off and the 2026 Olympics, and the fact that this group ran out of gas against a team like Anaheim shouldn’t be all that surprising. 

Expectations

It’s no secret that signing McDavid to an extension was Edmonton’s most pressing off-season matter. In order to help do that, the Oilers sent out Evander Kane to clear up cap space. Yet on July 1, they went out and gave Andrew Mangiapagne a two-year, multi-million dollar contract to try and replace Kane’s point production. That's an interesting bet to make in the moment that did not payoff whatsoever.

The McDavid of it all really limited Edmonton’s summer business until early October when the team finally announced they agreed to terms with him on a two-year bridge deal of sorts. Having settled that, the Oilers were able to give defensemen Jake Walman ($7 million x 7 years) and Mattias Ekholm ($4 million x 3 years) extensions of their own. 

At face value, the Oilers did not do enough during the summer to prepare for another Cup run. As the season went on, they managed to sign Jack Roslovic and Quinn Hutson, they pulled off the Tristan Jarry trade, and eventually bought at the deadline. They packaged a first round pick with Mangiapagne to get rid of his cap hit and bring on Jason Dickinson and Colton Dach. They gave up a second for veteran defenseman Connor Murphy and picked up Spencer Stastney and Connor Ingram for cheap along the way. 

Was that enough? It’s pretty clear they answered that question for themselves by losing in the first round of the playoffs. But, to an extent, those preparations were all they could manage to do. It’s obvious that a first round exit was not the expectation for this team, and never will be as long as Connor McDavid is leading them.

The only goal in blue and orange is to finally get McDavid a cup. There were lots of questions about his future in Edmonton this time last year, but it’s clear he has given them a very specific timeline to do so having only signed for two more years. Perhaps, deep down, they knew getting back to the Cup Final a third year in a row was going to be a long shot, but the way they bought at the deadline among many other factors, it felt like they were still going for it.

Series Recap

Edmonton got off to a fantastic start in this series as their high moment came in their 4-3 win in Game 1. After getting to know their opponents in the opening period of the series, Jason Dickinson started the scoring with two and a half minutes to go in the first. Exactly one minute later, Kasperi Kapanen scored to give them a 2-0 lead. The second period, on the other hand, was all Anaheim. Troy Terry scored 19 seconds into the period and Leo Carlsson tied it four minutes later. A power play goal from Terry gave Anaheim the lead, but Dickinson and Kapanen both scored a second goal to take the series lead with a 4-3 win. 

Game 2 and Game 3 shared a lot of similarities and, as such, you can take your pick on which one is the low moment for Edmonton, since they lost both. In each game, it was the Oilers who scored first and the Ducks who scored in bunches in response to that. In both games, the Oilers fought their way to either regain the lead or tie the game up, but it wasn’t long before they allowed the Ducks to get back on top and eventually take the game. Down 2-1 in the series heading back to Edmonton, the Oilers had the opportunity to even up the series on the road. But the Ducks would cross the line just barely to come out on top, threatening to take the series from the defending Conference champs.  

Kapanen got the Oilers on the board within the first minute of Game 4 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins extended the lead six minutes later. It was a fantastic start that went to waste as the Oilers allowed the Ducks to even the game up on a pair of power play goals. Evan Bouchard regained the lead with a power play goal of his own early in the third, but it was Jeffrey Viel scoring his second of the series to force overtime.

Then, just two and a half minutes into overtime, the most controversial call, arguably in all of recent playoff history, was made. 

Ryan Poehling was credited with a goal where the puck just barely snuck through Tristan Jarry to cross the line. However, all the traffic in front of the net mixed with the fact that Jarry’s skate covered the puck and the goal line made it nearly impossible for the officials to actually have eyes on the play. Nonetheless, they ruled it a goal on the ice and, upon a lengthy review, the goal stood. 

Without fully re-opening that can of worms, it was incredibly obvious that the puck was fully crossed the goal line. The reason it was controversial was because there was no way the officials were able to see on the ice and determine that in the moment, meaning they called a goal that decided the game on a guess or an assumption. At the end of the day, the play would have been reviewed, it would have been ruled a goal, and I had no stake in the game whatsoever, meaning it’s easy for me to matter of factly state that it was a good goal. That doesn't change the fact that it was an absolutely insane way for such a definitive moment of a series to play out.

That surely was the game-changing moment of the series, but the Oilers responded appropriately, winning Game 5 by a score of 4-1. Draisaitl and McDavid had their fingerprints all over this scoresheet as a pair of goals from Draisaitl and a dominant first period helped the Oilers come out on top and send the series back to Anaheim.

The big story line leading up to Game 6 was the fact that Connor McDavid was listed as a game time decision. He would ultimately play, but was held pointless as first period goals from Poehling, Gauthier, and former friend Chris Kreider helped establish a significant lead that only grew as the game went on. The Ducks would win 5-2 as the Oilers season would come to an end.

Prediction

Eric, Chip, and myself were right on the nose with this series, predicting that the Ducks would take it in six games. Roberto was the only one who picked the Oilers and you can’t blame him for that at all. On paper, the Oilers should have been the easy choice and they should have been able to come out on top. I mean, how can you not when you have two of the best players in the world and a team that knows what it takes to make it all the way to the Cup Final (twice)? Perhaps the toll of all that hockey in recent years was an underrated aspect, but when your team centers around greatness, the expectations have to be exceptional.  

Was the Season a Success?

The only way in which a season is going to be labeled a success for the Oilers now is if it ends with them winning the Stanley Cup. The fact that they not only failed at achieving that goal, but fell in the first round to a team who hasn’t made the playoffs in several years is a colossal failure. While McDavid’s extension doesn’t officially kick in until next season, the sand in bottom the hourglass is officially beginning to pile up. And this end of season quote from McDavid is not encouraging in the slightest:

The fact that McDavid is the one saying they were an average team all year is a massive red flag if you’re Oilers management. Your sole mission is to ice a competent enough team to allow McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard to do their thing in the playoffs and go the distance. A first round exit is unacceptable and Jason Dickinson and Connor Murphy being your big midseason gets—not to mention Tristan Jarry of all goaltenders—just is not enough. In hindsight, this may not have been the year to go for it, but with the cap rising and the McDavid window shrinking, you have to make some big moves this summer and throughout next season. It starts with goaltending, but the work doesn’t end there.  

UFAs/RFAs

The Oilers have a bit of a laundry list of pending UFAs as well as three RFAs. Among the most notable players at risk of hitting the open market on July 1 include Jack Roslovic, Adam Henrique, Jason Dickinson, and Kasperi Kapanen. Additionally, Connor Murphy, Curtis Lazar, Max Jones and goaltenders Connor Ingram and Calvin Pickard are all in the final year of their current contracts. Of that list, Kapanen and Roslovic are probably worth considering signing to an extension. Maybe Jason Dickinson, too, simply because there aren’t going to be many options in free agency and you already gave up a first to get him. But the fact of the matter is, this team needs to start building a more sustainable future. 

Their list of RFAs is much lighter with Owen Michaels, Colton Dach, and Spencer Stastney being the only three in need of a new deal. None of them should break the bank, but at the same time, none of which are going to be game breakers for you moving into next season. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

For the past two years, everyone has been saying the same thing about the Edmonton Oilers. “They need a goalie.” “Just get Connor McDavid a goalie.” “This team can’t be taken seriously until they get a real goalie.” The biggest question for the Oilers moving forward: Is goaltending really the problem here?

As Ranger fans, we know better than anyone that goaltending can be an X-factor, especially in the playoffs. Henrik Lundqvist is single-handedly responsible for practically all success the Rangers had in the postseason for the best half of a decade. Would it make a difference if Edmonton had that? Sure, of course it would. 

However, this is the third season in a row people are pointing the finger at goaltending. Many folks were critical of the Tristan Jarry trade, and rightfully so. He wouldn’t even become their main starter for the postseason as Connor Ingram played five of the six games. The two averaged a 3.85 GAA and roughly a .885 save percentage throughout the playoffs, which certainly isn’t great, but there is a conversation to be had about how much of that is really on the goalies themselves. In the playoffs, especially, those types of goaltending stats do become more of a team stat. 

Look at this team's core on defense. It lives and dies by Evan Bouchard, who is essentially a fourth forward on the ice. There's Mathias Ekholm, who is already 35. Then there's 31-year-old Darnell Nurse, who has dealt with a number of injuries over the years, and Jake Walman, who had a bit of a tough year. Couple that with the fact that the Oilers have played more hockey than anyone over the course of the last two years, it becomes less and less of a surprise that they lost to a younger, faster team, riding the high of their first playoff berth in eight years. 

Moving forward, the Oilers really need to make some decisions about how they plan to be competitive moving forward. They’ve made some really great moves to revamp their forward group by acquiring Matthew Savoie, Isaac Howard, and signing Quinn Hutson. They need to start making those kinds of moves regarding their defense. Spencer Stastney was a good start, but he’s not a needle mover. There are rumors Brandt Clarke isn’t happy with his usage in Los Angeles. Pavel Mintyukov was in all sorts of trade rumors in Anaheim. Find a way to get one of them or a player like that to reimagine their blue line with. 

Projected Lineup 

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
Podkolzin - Draisaitl - Roslovic^
Janmark - Savoie - Kapanen^
Frederic - Samanski - Hutson
Howard - Dach* - Michaels*

Ekholm - Bouchard
Nurse - ?
Walman - Emberson
Stastney*

Jarry - ?

(*-RFAs) (^-UFAs)

Final Thoughts

I’m not discounting the importance of goaltending, but this team has a lot of work to do beyond that if they want to make another run at a Stanley Cup.

McDavid and Draisaitl are phenomenal hockey players—two of the best in the entire world—but they can’t do it alone, and goaltending cannot be the scapegoat for them moving forward. Is Tristan Jarry the guy that’s going to take them to the promised land? He could be. He’d be an even better 1B to a clear-cut starter as their 1A, but that’s besides the point. Goaltending is clearly a priority but they need to revamp their D-core, fill out their bottom six, and find a way to get back to being a Cup contender. I do wonder if Darnell Nurse is a name that could be on the move this summer as there are surely teams with cap space that’d be willing to take a chance on a player of his stature.