2026 Elimination Eval: Ottawa Senators

For the second year in a row, the Ottawa Senators punched their ticket to the playoffs only to find themselves a first round exit. After a rough start to the season and a brutal January, the Senators fought their way to the finish, claiming one of two playoff spots that practically half of the Eastern Conference was fighting for. While they drew the short straw having to take on the top team in the East in the opening round, some saw the Carolina Hurricanes as a favorable matchup of sorts to the Senators, who were on paper the underdog’s, having lost two of three regular season outings. 

Expectations

After getting a small taste of playoff hockey for the first time in close to a decade last season, the goal for the Senators was to not only get back in the postseason, but to go a bit further. They didn’t make any major trades or signings over the summer, but did acquire defenseman Jordan Spence from the Los Angeles Kings, which proved to be a great bit of business for them. Beyond that, they brought on veteran Lars Eller and re-upped internal talent like Fabian Zetterlund, Tyler Kleven, Shane Pinto, and of course, veteran Claude Giroux. 

After a very up-and-down regular season, it wasn’t clear what the best course of action was for Ottawa as they approached the trade deadline. They sold veteran winger David Perron to the Detroit Red Wings and replaced him with Warren Foegele in a trade that really only cost them what’s bound to be a later second round pick. Not strong buyers or sellers but the decisions paid off as it secured them that second wild card position. 

As mentioned, some folks were high on the Senators heading into this series. Their rough and tough style of play proved to be a less than ideal matchup for the Hurricanes, to the point where head coach Rod Brind’Amour even made mention of it going into the series. While the hope from the Senators was obviously to win the series, the goal for it was to at least be competitive and become a difficult out for a team expected to go on a deeper run. 

Series Recap

In an attempt to set the tone, Brady Tkachuk challenged Hurricanes captain Jordan Staal to a fight right at the opening face-off. It was a valiant effort from Tkachuk, but not exactly a wise one in the sense that Staal is an important player for Carolina, but far from one of their top five players. Tkachuk is supposed to be Ottawa’s best player, if not a top three player, at the very least. Not exactly the best trade off to start the series when it comes to the two spending five-plus minutes in the penalty box. 

After a scoreless opening period in game one, it was Logan Stankoven who gave the Carolina Hurricanes the first lead for the series. This would become a recurring issue for the Senators as Stankoven would score the first goal in each of the first three games of the series. What also became a problem was the fact that Ottawa did not once hold a lead in the entire series, but let's talk about how we got there.  

Taylor Hall secured the 2-0 win in the third period as that line with Jackson Blake completing the trio became a huge difference maker in the series. You never want to drop Game One but at this point in the series, the Senators were far from out of it. Game Two however, would become the game changing moment of the series.  

Stankoven opened the scoring again, this time on the power play. But after Sebastian Aho made it 2-0 early in the third, the Senators scored twice to force the game to overtime. The goals came from Drake Batherson and Dylan Cozens with Jake Sanderson picking up an assist on both of the goals. If the Senators managed to find a way to win this game, we could have been looking at a completely different series. However, as the two teams were just over seven minutes away from triple overtime, Jordan Martinook found the back of the net to give the Hurricanes a 2-0 series lead—a huge goal for the Canes veteran after missing on a penalty shot after thinking they had won the game in the first overtime on a goal that was ruled offsides.

Since the Senators didn’t even lead for a minute of this series, let alone win a game, we’ll go ahead and say the build up to puck drop of game three was their high moment. Ottawa is as passionate of a hockey town as any other and, as a result, is hungry for some recent playoff success. That first game of the series on home ice provided what in hindsight was probably their last best chance of turning this thing around.

Alas, it only took Stankoven five minutes to get his team on the board as the Hurricanes held the lead through most of the second period. With four minutes to go, Batherson picked up his second of the series to tie the game up at one. This would have been huge for the Senators had they not given up another goal just a over a minute later. Jackson Blake scored his first of the postseason to give Carolina the lead they held to the final buzzer. 

The low moment would become game four which turned into an absolute chaotic evening of hockey. The Sens would be without Jake Sanderson who suffered a concussion on a hit from Taylor Hall in game three. That's a huge loss, but it was an opportunity for Carter Yakemchuk to play in his first career postseason game.

After a scoreless first period, there would be eleven penalties assigned throughout the duration of the second period. Not to mention the other seven that came in the first and third. The Senators had three—yes, three—5-on-3 man advantages throughout this game, which brings us to one of the major reasons they lost this series. The Senators went 1-for-21 on the power play against Carolina with that one goal coming in the second period of a game where it sort of felt like the officials were doing everything they could to help Ottawa keep the series alive. 

Not that it had much of an impact on the Senators at all, but the officials really lost control of game four in the second period. Both sides had questionable hits and countless scrums that could have been avoided if things were called differently. With the score tied heading into the third, things calmed down. But again, it was Logan Stankoven who became a difference maker, giving the Hurricanes an important lead that carried through the final minutes of play. Aho scored with the net empty and while the Senators did bring themselves back within one, a second empty netter finished off the series. 

Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux, and Thomas Chabot were all held pointless in four games. Tim Stutzle and Ridley Greig only had one point each. 

They did Linus Ullmark absolutely no favors, as he was quite spectacular all series long.

Prediction

In our roundtable, we all had the Hurricanes taking the series in five or six games but Roberto was the closest, suggesting the possibility of a sweep, but ultimately agreeing with Eric who had Carolina in five. While the Sens may have matched up favorably to the Hurricanes, the experience and team system just outweighed that, making Carolina the better team. 

Was the Season a Success?

All things considered, I’d say you have to consider this season somewhat of a success for the Senators. They dealt with a significant amount of injuries, specifically to their blue line down the stretch. So by that standard, fighting their way back into the playoffs is a small victory. On a bigger picture scale, this season was a slight step back, having won two games last postseason and getting swept this time around.

At the end of the day, the Senators did just end their eight year playoff drought last season. Simply remaining in the playoff picture is a win, but they’re due for a step forward. And if they don’t take that step soon, they could begin moving backwards even sooner. The pieces are there for them to build from this, but they have to do something to prepare to remain competitive not just now, but in the future. Goalscoring being one of their major areas of improvement moving forward. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

The Senators list of pending free agents is quite similar to the list they had this time last year. Veteran Claude Giroux remains the biggest name on the roster in need of a new contract, but if he’s going to continue to play in the NHL, it’s surely going to be with Ottawa. Other vets like Lars Eller, Nick Jensen, and James Reimer could, and probably will, hit the open market. More depth players like Nick Cousins, Dennis Gilbert, and Lassi Thomson could re-up on cheaper deals, but could also look to test what’s bound to be a wild free agent market this summer. 

They only have three RFA’s on their roster in defenseman Jordan Spence, goaltender Leevi Merialinen, and depth forward Stephan Halliday. I’d say it’s a fair bet to make that all three are back next season. Spence could earn a significant pay raise but the other two should come in at a reasonable price that won’t break the bank. The raise Shane Pinto is due, however, does not leave them with a ton of cap space moving forward. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

There’s no question that the biggest question for the Senators moving forward surrounds Brady Tkachuk’s future with the team.

I’m sure at their locker cleanout day he’s going to give the same song and dance of an answer—“I want to win and I want to win with Ottawa.” But after winning gold at Milan with the U.S. this winter, there’s plenty of valid reasons to wonder if this could be the straw that broke the camels back. I’m going to have a full story coming soon about Brady Tkachuk, specifically where he’s at in his career, the rumors tying him to the Rangers, and the case for why he is or isn’t a viable solution for them, so I won’t go too deep into it now. But if there’s any indication that his time in Ottawa is running out, the time for an identity shift could be near. 

Beyond that, there are still lots of question marks surrounding their vision of the future. If and when Giroux retires, that’s a big hole in their lineup. Batherson, Foegele, Zub, and Chabot are all nearing the end of their contracts that bring them to unrestricted free agency. Take them out of the equation and you’re really appearing in rough shape. 

Linus Ullmark had a great playoff but surely isn’t going to improve with age as he’s going to be turning 33 this summer. Beyond Merilainen who very well could have a ceiling as a backup, they don’t have any major goaltending prospects in the pipeline. That contention window just opened up last season and could slam shut as early as next season depending on how some of these decisions with key players pan out. 

Projected Lineup 

Tkachuk - Cozens - Greig
Zetterlund - Stutzle - Batherson
Foegele - Pinto - Amadio
? - ? - Giroux^
MacDermid, Hodgson

Chabot - Spence*
Sanderson - Zub
Kleven - Yakemchuk
Matinpalo 

Ullmark - Merilainen*

(*-RFAs, ^-UFAs)

Final Thoughts

Ottawa has to make a move of significance if they want to remain a playoff team and take a step forward next season. At the same time, they have to continue to draft and develop if they want to have any hopes of remaining a competitive team down the road.

Right now, a great deal of their success rides on a ton of question marks. Will Brady Tkachuk stick around? Will Linus Ullmark remain a strong enough starting goaltender in the NHL? Can their blue line stay healthy? How much gas does Giroux have left in the tank? Are Stutzle and Sanderson strong enough pieces to build a team around?

If the answer to most of these questions favor the Senators then maybe their future can remain bright. If it becomes the opposite, things can go dark very quickly.