2026 Rangers Season Previews: Alexis Lafrenière
Six seasons after he was drafted, Rangers fans have largely made peace with who Alexis Lafrenière is—but is there another gear left to find?
This article is part of an ongoing series of New York Rangers Season Previews, taking a close look at what we can, and should, expect from each member of the 2026-27 New York Rangers. To read other articles in this series, go here.
Alexis Lafrenière has been one of the most divisive New York Rangers throughout his now six-season tenure with the team. Drafted first overall after the Rangers got a lucky lottery ball bounce during the 2020 COVID-19 draft lottery, Lafrenière has not met the lofty standards set by other first overall picks in the past decade, like Macklin Celebrini, Jack Hughes, and Auston Matthews.
Despite all this, Lafrenière has been a solid contributor at the NHL level and has shown both promise and flashes of brilliance. Furthermore, recent contracts handed out across the league have made the seven-year, $7.45 million extension that kicked in last season look like an absolute bargain (more on that below).
Previous Performance
Following a disappointing 2024-25 in which he put up only 45 points in 82 games, Lafrenière bounced back to match his career high in points with 57. The advanced stats told an even more promising story. Evolving Hockey pegged him at 14.9 expected goals above replacement (xGAR) last season, nearly double his previous best mark (7.5 in 2021-22) and second-highest on the Rangers behind only Adam Fox, who led the team with 20 xGAR in only 55 games:
Looking beyond the Rangers, Lafrenière's 14.9 xGAR was the 40th-best of any forward last season, slotting in just ahead of the new highest-paid player in hockey, Leo Carlsson.
Lafrenière certainly had plenty of opportunities. He primarily skated on the top line, logging the most 5-on-5 ice time with Mika Zibanejad. His two most common line combinations alongside Zibanejad were with Artemi Panarin, and then Gabe Perreault after the Panarin trade. Lafrenière started to receive more power-play time. He received the sixth-highest share of power-play time behind Panarin, Fox, Zibanejad, Trocheck, and Miller and was second on the team in power-play goals with nine.
Expectations
Turning 25 in early October, Alexis Lafrenière is an established top-six forward who is probably never going to truly break out to become the superstar you'd hope your first overall pick would be. And it feels like the Rangers fanbase has, more or less, come to terms with that fact. People no longer lament that he's been a mild disappointment and just expect him to put up solid, but not elite, numbers.
Looking at the projections of more analytically minded writers, they're probably in line with what the team and fan base expect: Lafrenière will not be a point-per-game player, but will help drive play and finish in a top-six role. In fact, looking back at Lafrenière's ranking as the forward with the 40th-highest xGAR last season, I think most Rangers fans would probably agree that Lafrenière is approximately the 40th-best forward in hockey. Considering that there are by definition 96 first-line forwards in the NHL, that feels about correct.
Lafrenière will likely spend much of this season playing alongside Gabe Perreault. Rangers fans are more excited about Perreault's upside at this point, but the story of Gabe Perreault will be highly dependent on Alexis Lafrenière, and vice versa. In order for Perreault to meet the lofty expectations that Rangers fans have placed on him, Lafrenière will need to continue to drive play and create opportunities. On the flip side, if Perreault doesn't take the next step and become a worthy top-six winger, then Lafrenière could have a disappointing statistical season despite encouraging advanced metrics and play-driving ability.
Projections
84 GP | 31 G | 43 A | 74 PTS
The Athletic's fantasy hockey projections from Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman see Lafrenière finishing with career highs in goals (28) and assists (37) for 65 points. Notably, they project Lafrenière to be one of five Rangers on the top power-play unit along with Fox, Zibanejad, Miller, and Dorofeyev. Evolving Hockey has a similar projection for Lafrenière, anticipating that he'll have 27 goals and 37 assists for 64 points. Additionally, they see him as the fifth member of the Rangers power play.
I'm more optimistic. I think Lafrenière will continue to progress as a player, and the combination of the spotlight being off him and more power-play time will lead to his best season yet. I think Lafrenière will beat the projections and have at least 70 points, scoring 30 goals for the first time in his career while adding at least 40 assists.
The Bottom Line
After years of saying that it's a 'make-or-break' season for Lafrenière, Rangers fans seem to be accepting Lafrenière for who he is. He'll be on one of the top two lines skating next to a center who receives more attention from both the fan base and opposing teams, creating scoring chances for whoever is fortunate enough to be playing across from him.
At this point, it's fair to say that we know who Alexis Lafrenière is and he isn't likely to break out and be a point-per-game player or regress much from his 57 points last season. Seventy points from a top-line left wing is certainly enough for the Rangers to make the playoffs and possibly steal a round behind Igor Shesterkin, and that's something Lafrenière can deliver.
