Elimination Eval: Colorado Avalanche

While not as bad as the Los Angeles Kings constantly running into the Edmonton Oilers, the Colorado Avalanche are halfway there in that, for the second season in a row, they’ve had their season come to an end courtesy of the same opponent: the Dallas Stars. Despite dealing with significant injuries of their own, the Stars managed to take the series from the Avalanche in seven games, which is not ideal for the type of team Colorado is expected to be.

Expectations

After falling to the Stars in the second round of the playoffs last season, Colorado was certainly looking to make some progress this time around. Making one of the biggest splashes on the trade market this season, the Avalanche sent Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes in a three-way trade that also saw the Chicago Blackhawks send Taylor Hall to the Hurricanes, in exchange for Martin Necas, Jack Drury, a second-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, and a fourth-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. And that was was the beginning of Colorado’s moves this season. The Avalanche completely revamped their goaltending as they sent Justus Annunen to Nashville for Scott Wedgewood, and Alexandar Georgiev to San Jose for Mackenzie Blackwood. 

They remained busy at the trade deadline as they acquired Ryan Lindgren and Jimmy Vesey from the Rangers, Brock Nelson from the Islanders, Charlie Coyle from Boston, and Erik Johnson from Philadelphia. With all those moves in mind, you can certainly see that Colorado was expecting to make a deep run in the Western Conference. Just three years removed from their last Stanley Cup, the Avalanche hold themselves to a high standard and expect to be contenders year in and year out. 

Series Recap

After a scoreless opening period in game one, goals from Artturi Lehkonen and Nathan MacKinnon put Colorado up 2-0. A power play goal from Roope Hintz brought the Stars within one to start the third, but three unanswered goals spurred the Avalanche to a 5-1 win to start the series. Mackenzie Blackwood, who made his Stanley Cup Playoff debut in game one after playing in over 250 regular season games, was strong, making 23 saves to help his team get off to a good start. 

Colorado continued to lead the way in game two, as MacKinnon picked up another power play goal halfway through the first period. Special teams would continue to be the story in this one, as Tyler Seguin tied the game with a power play goal of his own towards the end of the first. Dallas took a brief lead in the second but a pair of goals from Jack Drury and Logan O’Connor gave Colorado a 3-2 lead to take into the final period of regulation. Evgenii Dadonov ended up tying the game for Dallas midway through the third period, which sent the series to its first overtime of the postseason. Dallas would have the final say in this one, as it was another former friend of ours—Colin Blackwell—was the unlikely hero, netting the game-winning goal to even up the series at 1-1. 

The stage was set for game three, which was incredibly special night for the Avalanche as their captain Gabriel Landeskog made his long awaited return after missing nearly three years worth of hockey with a severe knee condition. Valeri Nichushkin got the night started, giving Colorado a 1-0 lead that they held through the two periods. Special teams would become a major factor in this one, too, as Jamie Benn tied the game midway through the third on the power play, sending game three to another overtime. Colorado ended up going 0-for-6 on the power play in the game, which included a four-minute double minor that Dallas killed off in overtime. Shortly after that, Tyler Seguin would bury the game winner to put the Avs down in the series 2-1.  

Fun fact: Heading into game four, Dallas had only held a lead in this series for 62 seconds of play, even though they were up 2-1 in the series. Game four became both the high moment and the game changer for Colorado. The Avs would flip the script on special teams, with Logan O’Connor scoring shorthanded and MacKinnon adding another power play, before Gabriel Landeskog scored his first goal in almost three years to make it 3-0. Samuel Girard made it four and Blackwood kept the door shut, collecting a 23-save shutout in a 4-0 win to tie up the series. 

Game five becomes all the more important when the series turns into a best of three, and sure enough this became the low moment for Colorado. The Avalanche allowed Wyatt Johnston to score just nine seconds into the game, and Thomas Harley added another to make it 2-0 in the final minute of the period. Former Avs forward Mikko Rantanen picked up his first of the series just 72 seconds into the second to make it 3-0, foreshadowing much of what was to come. The Avalanche were able to bring themselves within one with five minutes to go in the second, but a pair of late second period Dallas goals put things out of reach. Hintz picked up the empty netter to beat Colorado 6-2 and put Dallas a win away from closing out the series. 

It was 'win or go home' in game six, and Colorado did just that: winning the game in somewaht dramatic fashion by a score of 7-4. After taking a 2-0 lead in the first, Colorado gave up four goals to Dallas in the second, giving the Stars a 4-3 lead heading into the third. Colorado needed an answer to keep their season alive, and they responded with a pair of big goals from Nichushkin and MacKinnon, before adding two empty-netters to force the series to decisive seventh game.

To be fair, Colorado didn’t plan on Mikko Rantanen becoming a Dallas Star. But, in hindsight, should they really have moved him at all? Nonetheless, after Colorado sent Rantanen to Carolina, the Hurricanes decided to flip him as he wasn’t going to sign with them long term, which brought him to Dallas. So here we are: a game seven in a 'winner take all' moment of the postseason. Colorado controlled play and had a 1-0 lead after two periods, which Nathan MacKinnon extended to 2-0 only 31 seconds into the third.

What could possibly go wrong? Mikko Rantanen, that's what.

Rantanen put up a third period hat trick against his former team to help send Dallas on to the second round with a 4-2 victory. After a bit of a slow start to the series, Rantanen completely stole the show against his former team for what became an incredible story line for any hockey fans who aren’t Avalanche fans.  Being eliminated from the playoffs always stings, but when it's a former teammate and friend that nets three to end your season, the sting is that much worse.

Prediction 

This is another series I was spot on with predicting. Despite the injuries Dallas was dealing with, I still had the Stars taking the series in seven. Sure enough, that’s exactly how it played out. 

Was the Season a Success? 

Anytime you have Nathan MacKinnon as your top player and you do anything other than go deep in the playoffs, it’s going to be considered a failure—specifically through the lens of MacKinnon himself. This is not just one of the best players in the league that we’re talking about. He’s one of league's fiercest competitors, if not the most. The Avalanche have only won one playoff series since they won the Stanley Cup in 2022 and you can’t imagine anyone in Colorado is happy about that. This is also the second year in a row they fell short at the hands of the Dallas Stars, and given the amount of star players Dallas was missing in this series, this shortcoming isn’t going to be taken lightly. 

Still, the Avalanche have won recently enough where I can’t imagine anything too drastic is going to take place. They have one of the top coaches in the league, a general manager that likely isn’t going anywhere, and plenty of talent that will keep them competitive moving forward.  

UFA’s/RFA’s

Colorado is set to lose a fair amount of players to unrestricted free agency, several of which were trade deadline acquisitions, such as Brock Nelson, Ryan Lindgren, and Jimmy Vesey. Additionally, Jonathan Drouin, Joel Kiviranta, Erik Johnson, and Tucker Poolman are all unrestricted free agents. I wouldn’t expect many of these players to be back with the team next season, as there’s a good chance for practically all of them to make bigger money somewhere else on the open market. A Jonathan Drouin return could make sense seeing as he had his best career success in Colorado, has a long history with Nathan MacKinnon, and could be willing to sign for a reasonable price. 

The good news for Colorado is even if most or all of their UFA’s walk, none of them are really significant subtractions. That’s not to say they won’t have work to do in order to fill those holes in their lineup, but it could definitely be much worse for them. In terms of RFA’s, they only have defenseman Sam Malinski to worry about, which shouldn’t cost them too much if they look to keep him around. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

I’d say the biggest question for Colorado moving forward has to do with Gabriel Landeskog and whether or not he can stay healthy for an entire season. His return was a great story for the Avalanche this postseason, but if he can’t make a full recovery that allows him to play through a full season, mixed with the fact that they moved on from Rantanen, there are some massive holes in not just their lineup, but in their identity. Martin Necas is a great replacement for the top line but it’s still a big change from the team that went all the way just a couple of seasons ago. 

The overall health of the team could be a big factor seeing as their blue line has dealt with a number of injuries in the past, specifically Josh Manson and Samuel Girard. On paper, this team has what it takes to be a Western Conference favorite, but a couple of injuries can drastically change that.

Projected Lineup

Lehkonen - MacKinnon - Necas
Landeskog - Colton - Nichushkin
Wood - Coyle - ?
Kelly - Drury - O’Connor

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson 
? - Malinski* 
Middleton

Blackwood - Wedgewood

(*-RFAs)

Final Thoughts

The Avalanche are still at least another year or two away from being in panic mode. They have a good core on defense, one of the best top line centers and top pair defensemen in the league, and a solid supporting cast. It’s just going to be a matter of how they fill in the spaces opening up. Landeskog is a big question mark, but if he can be a contributing factor again, that’s huge for them moving forward. With the right additions in the off-season, this team could really put themselves in a great position and should be viewed as a top-tier team as they run it back next year.